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Next Day Thread: Sam Howell Just Got Sacked Again! (Buffalo Edition)


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16 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Run? The Bucs were only able to get 41 yards running on them last night lol

Hence Mayfield coming back to earth.

 

I realize “any given Sunday” and all that, but there’s absolutely nothing logical about the matchups that suggests we can win, or even really keep it close.  
 

The only smidge of a chance to keep it close relies on the defense making a lot of plays.  Do I trust JDR to bottle up Fields? No.

3 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Some of these posts look damn near identical to one's in week leading up to us beating the Eagles on MNF last year...

The way we won last year is simply not a strategy that EB is going to deploy.

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17 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Jay wasn't hardcore on the point, he said he gets the other side.   But he subscribes to the idea that getting hit too much can eventually effect a QB's psyche.  Considering Jay played QB, I gather his opinion is from first hand experience.

 

 

 

 

There's an endless number of QBs who were drafted high ruined too early because the OL wasn't solidified yet. Yes, too many hits can get into a QB's head...I seem to recall Jim "Chris" Everett falling down BEFORE he was even sacked.Tim Ouch of the Browns, and Chris "Crystal Chandelier" Chandler from the Falcons also spring to mind, as well as many other ne-er do wells like Browning Nagle, Mike Phipps, Akili Smith, Todd Blackledge, Andre Ware, Rick Mirer...

 

Here's "Chris" Everett getting sacked by a phantom: https://m.facebook.com/JoeMontanasRightArm/videos/the-infamous-phantom-sack-of-jim-everett-during-the-89-nfc-championship-game/634035958227364/

Edited by BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen
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I have to admit, I was a little surprised watching the game back…

 

In the first half, I counted 17 pass plays:

8 with a five man protection.

1 with one player chipping (forgot to note if it was a back or TE).

1 with a back and TE chipping.

5 with the running back staying in to block (6 man protection).

1 with the running back staying in and a TE chipping.

1 with the back and a TE staying in to block (7 man protection).

 

1 pressure resulted from a blitz - Charles helped Gates on a DT, Leno bailed on his man to pick up the inside blitzer.  The DE got into Howell’s face and Howell threw the pick intended for Gibson on the sideline.

1 pressure resulted from Howell moving in the pocket away from Cosmi’s leveraged guy (Cosmi’s block was fine).  Completed pass downfield.

1 pressure resulted from Robinson blowing his block (the 4th and goal play).

Cosmi got pushed back into Howell’s lap once as the ball was thrown… I’m not sure if this is categorized as a pressure, but it at least would have been if Howell hadn’t gotten the ball off fairly quickly.

 

2 of the sacks Howell had adequate time (barely though), but held the ball.

1 sack I have trouble assigning.  OL didn’t handle the blitz very well, and Howell didn’t throw hot (as he theoretically should have), but I don’t know what options he had from the broadcast angle.  Howell didn’t really have much time at all.

 

There were a number of quick throws, and while pressure didn’t get through on those, the pocket was definitely collapsing for at least some of them.  Ie. it didn’t seem like Howell would have had “adequate” time if he hadn’t gotten the ball out quickly, but hard to say for sure.

 

 

Watched part of the 3rd quarter, but didn’t make notes.  Protection seemed mostly fine until a little past midway - Howell tried to scramble once and was sacked, but there wasn’t really too much pressure when he tucked it.  I don’t blame him though - he saw a lane, but it closed really quickly.  And then the play after, Wylie completely whiffs for the 5th sack of the day.  Howell had no chance.  He followed that up with the pick to the linebacker in the middle (protection seemed fine).

 

 

Overall, I was pleasantly surprised with the protection (in real time I thought they were bad), but at the same time, it felt like if Howell ever held the ball a beat longer than you’d like, the pocket was collapsing.  So maybe I’d call it consistently adequate.  Certainly not “good”, but I can now understand some of the data that takes a lot of the blame off the oline (at least to this point in the game).  Wasn’t looking for it, but re-watching confirmed my thinking that the problem is the pairing of an “adequate” OL with a young qb.  A good/experienced qb (one that can get the ball out quickly) would be fine behind this line, and Howell would be good behind a good OL.  The pairing we have though is pretty shaky, and good defenses will likely cause them major problems.

 

I have to wonder how much of the end result was due to Buffalo having a talented secondary and linebackers, possibly playing some coverage games with Howell too to make him hesitate.  As for Bienemy, hard to judge, but I wonder if he didn’t call screens because of Buffalo’s line backing/back 7 talent.  Still think he should have called at least 1 or 2 to test it out.  I can excuse not running to some degree (given down and distance), but I also feel like he should absolutely have called at least a couple/few/several more.

 

Last note, I can’t really judge the OL in the ground game - too much going on from the broadcast angle.  Somewhere between ok and good, but impossible for me to discern how much was due to Robinson creating on his own.

Edited by skinny21
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I'm struggling to see how the line isn't primarily at fault. Even if they're technically creating a "pocket," there aren't really throwing lanes to step up into- this then becomes an issue for Sam, who can't see over a 6'6" lineman a foot away from him. Moreover, a lot of folks are pointing out the amount of time Sam holds the ball without knowing whether guys are getting open, the progression of his reads, or the amount of time Sam buys himself while scrambling in the pocket waiting for something to happen. I have a feeling that stat is especially inflated by the latter. This isn't to say Sam isn't at fault for some of this, but to watch Mahomes or Allen, there's no way he's getting enough time in a clean pocket.

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I am married to a life-long Eagles fan and I currently live in Kansas City.

 

So I know me some Andy Reid.

 

Andy's biggest weakness as a playcaller is that he gets enamored with all his wonderful pass plays, and suddenly he's called 15 straight passes despite leading by 10 and averaging 5 yards per rushing attempt.  That tendency still exists in KC, but it doesn't matter as much because Mahomes fixes a lot of mistakes. 

 

The point being: EB may have that same tendency of thinking "We can fix everything with this overly elaborate screen pass that requires my QB to hold the ball for ten seconds."

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13 hours ago, method man said:


Again, the difference is this year they have Jalen Carter and a second year Jordan Davis. Running on them is going to be really hard

 

It's that or trying to play arena league football with them.

 

This is one of those games were running first, passing occasionally and hoping for a solid D is paramount to a win.

6 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

Run? The Bucs were only able to get 41 yards running on them last night lol

 

Do you propose we try to go pass-happy on them?

 

Runrunrun and solid D = win

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I was curious to see if any of the playoff teams last year got thrashed in the regular season like we did last week against the Bills.  The Vikings lost to the Cowboys 40-3 and the Jaguars lost to the Lions 40-14.  Those look like the biggest deficits in a loss amongst the playoff teams last year.  

 

IMO, really good teams don't get blown the **** out like that.  I started looking at the 2021 playoff teams but lost interest, lol.

 

I don't think all is lost but that game against the Bills has to be a message of sorts.

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I rewatched the game.

 

I recommend folks rewatch the game. 

Dag dem 5 turnovers. It made the game look worse than it actually was. 

Just wished we had taken the points when they were there. 

But one will think that not converting on 4 and goal would have presented the Defense with an opportunity to get a safety or a turnover.

Even with all the sacks and missed opportunities, they game turned completely on Antonio Gibson fumble.

 

The key against the Eagles will be to hold to the ball and punt the ball even when there's a temptation to try a long field goal. Try to win the field possession game. 

 

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Some key numbers that matters for the Commanders: they’re 2-1, but Sam Howell has been sacked 19 times in 180 minutes of play. Some other key numbers that are not good: some advanced analytics have the Commanders as one of the worst teams in the NFC.

 

https://www.audacy.com/thefandc/sports/washington-commanders/bmitch-and-finlay-advanced-analytics-unkind-to-commanders?utm_campaign=www.audacy.com%2Fthefandc&utm_content=1695759222&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_term=WJFK-FM

JP Finlay has access to some great NFL analytics sites, and also visits Pro Football Reference to check out some of their proprietary stats, and, well, one of those says Washington is a bottom-feeder.

“They have something called the simple rating system, which adjusts margin of victory to strength of schedule, and the Commanders are second to last in the NFC with a minus 12.9 SRS,” JP said. “Offensively, they are worse than average by about six points, and they’re second to last only ahead of the Bears, and behind the 0-3 Giants.”

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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39 minutes ago, philibusters said:

The Giants are 1-2

 

Yeah.

 

The Giants played Dallas and SF.  Imagine if we did.  We can't block teams that have been pedestrain at creating sacks when playing against other teams.  Imagine Dallas and SF versus this O line.   

 

I think this team and the Giants are likely a good matchup.

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16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah.

 

The Giants played Dallas and SF.  Imagine if we did.  We can't block teams that have been pedestrain at creating sacks when playing against other teams.  Imagine Dallas and SF versus this O line.   

 

I think this team and the Giants are likely a good matchup.

That game will get flexed to MNF.. OK, maybe not.

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2 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

I was curious to see if any of the playoff teams last year got thrashed in the regular season like we did last week against the Bills.  The Vikings lost to the Cowboys 40-3 and the Jaguars lost to the Lions 40-14.  Those look like the biggest deficits in a loss amongst the playoff teams last year.  

 

IMO, really good teams don't get blown the **** out like that.  I started looking at the 2021 playoff teams but lost interest, lol.

 

I don't think all is lost but that game against the Bills has to be a message of sorts.

In 2020 the Bucs won the Super Bowl. They lost at home to the Saints 38-3.

 

The 2021 eventual champion Rams suffered 12 and 17 point losses at home to the Titans and Cardinals. They also suffered a loss to the 9ers in San Fran 31-10.

 

The 2021 Super Bowl runner up Bengals suffered home losses to the Browns and Chargers by 25 and 19 points.

 

Its the NFL. Sometimes even the good teams just get skunked.

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