Next Day Thread: Sam Howell Just Got Sacked Again! (Buffalo Edition)

[Ball Security]

6 hours ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

I hope I'm wrong, but I think we are going to look back at that Broncos game in an entirely different context by the end of the year.  

 

This chart, hard to take seriously this early in the season. Good news is that we held the sixth best team in the Conference to no offensive TDs.

[Captain James]

In case anyone was wondering...Sam Howell was just sacked AGAIN

[Skinsinparadise]

20 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

This chart, hard to take seriously this early in the season. Good news is that we held the sixth best team in the Conference to no offensive TDs.

 

This early clearly one bad game or good game skews your numbers big time.  Last week Howell was killing it on various stats, after this week he's scraping close to the bottom.

 

Will see over time of course.

 

I don't subscribe to the euphoria of the 2nd half comeback against Denver being a defining moment for the season or the Bills game on the negative side.  I am sticking to the idea that they have a so so season, 8-9, based on what I've seen so far.  Beating the Eagles or getting destroyed by them might influence my take.

 

I think this Eagles game should be very telling especially after the Bills game.

 

Being on the bottom below is a good thing

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Ball Security]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

This early clearly one bad game or good game skews your numbers big time.  Last week Howell was killing it on various stats, after this week he's scraping close to the bottom.

 

Will see over time of course.

 

I don't subcribe to the euphoria of the 2nd half comeback against Denver being a defining moment for the season or the Bills game on the negative side.  I am sticking to the idea that they have a so so season, 8-9, based on what I've seen so far.  Beating the Eagles or getting destroyed by them might influence my take.

 

I think this Eagles game should be very telling especially after the Bills game.

 

 

Is that last stat good or bad with only SF ahead/behind us? 🤷‍♂️

[method man]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

This early clearly one bad game or good game skews your numbers big time.  Last week Howell was killing it on various stats, after this week he's scraping close to the bottom.

 

Will see over time of course.

 

I don't subcribe to the euphoria of the 2nd half comeback against Denver being a defining moment for the season or the Bills game on the negative side.  I am sticking to the idea that they have a so so season, 8-9, based on what I've seen so far.  Beating the Eagles or getting destroyed by them might influence my take.

 

I think this Eagles game should be very telling especially after the Bills game.

They have 6 games remaining on the schedule vs teams clearly better than them (Philly x2, Cowboys x2, Dolphins & SF) and 8 games remaining against teams on par or worse with them. In my mind, they have to come out of Week 11 at least 7-4 to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. This means beating the Bears, Falcons, Patriots, Seahawks and Giants at least once. Doable but daunting.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, method man said:

They have 6 games remaining on the schedule vs teams clearly better than them (Philly x2, Cowboys x2, Dolphins & SF) and 8 games remaining against teams on par or worse with them. In my mind, they have to come out of Week 11 at least 7-4 to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. This means beating the Bears, Falcons, Patriots, Seahawks and Giants at least once. Doable but daunting.

 

I recall my first 6 games prediction.  The first 3 has gone the way I predicted.

 

I recall the next 3 were

Eagles -- loss

Bears -- win

Falcons -- win

 

I don't recall the rest how i got to 8-9 but this is my guess now

 

Giants -- loss

Eagles -- loss

Patriots -- win

Seahawks -- loss

Giants -- win

Cowboys -- loss

Dolphins -- loss

Rams -- win

Jets -- loss

49ers -- loss

Cowboys -- win

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[FootballZombie]

14 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Is that last stat good or bad with only SF ahead/behind us? 🤷‍♂️

 

Its good.

 

It means our run plays grab positive yardage more often than almost anyone.

[Skinsinparadise]

17 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Is that last stat good or bad with only SF ahead/behind us? 🤷‍♂️

 

It's very good

[Ball Security]

2 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Its good.

 

It means our run plays grab positive yardage more often than almost anyone.

That’s what I figured, but the person who shared Sharpe’s tweet said that they were at the bottom of the league. Can’t pick up if they were being sarcastic or just don’t understand what they are sharing.

[method man]

17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I recall my first 6 games prediction.  The first 3 has gone the way I predicted.

 

I recall the next 3 were

Eagles -- loss

Bears -- win

Falcons -- win

 

I don't recall the rest how i got to 8-9 but this is my guess now

 

Giants -- loss

Eagles -- loss

Patriots -- win

Seahawks -- loss

Giants -- win

Cowboys -- loss

Dolphins -- loss

Rams -- win

Jets -- loss

49ers -- loss

Cowboys -- win

 

 

That Jets game could swing things and Ron has given us a surprise win over a much better team each of his three seasons so far. 
 

I do think they can use the “formula” from 2021 & 2022 to get to 9-8 or even 10-7 with a more capable passer in Sam vs Heinicke

Edited September 26, 2023 by method man

[Warhead36]

10 wins is possible. Here is how I see it:

 

For sure losses, but we probably steal one(in the last two years we've beaten a team we weren't supposed to-Bucs in 2021, Eagles last year on MNF):

 

-Eagles x 2

-Cowboys x 2

-49ers

-Dolphins

 

Should win. Say what you will about the Rivera era but outside of the Giants in 2020 we tend to beat the teams we're supposed to:

 

-Bears

-Jets

-Rams

 

Coinflip games. These could go either way really:

 

-Giants x 2(honestly should be considered a should win but its the Giants)

-Falcons

-Seahawks

-Patriots

 

We'll need to go 4-1 in the coin flip games and beat all the teams we should beat to get to 10, assuming we can steal one of the for sure losses. The 2nd Cowboy game could be a wild card since it could be like last year where they end up with nothing to play for. 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Warhead36

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

5 hours ago, D’Pablo said:

Moreover, a lot of folks are pointing out the amount of time Sam holds the ball without knowing whether guys are getting open, the progression of his reads, or the amount of time Sam buys himself while scrambling in the pocket waiting for something to happen.

I’ve seen a lot of numbers that indicate Sam holds the ball too long, creates his own pressure, responsible for most sacks, etc. but it’s 7:22pm the Tuesday following the loss and I’ve seen a total of one play being litigated online.  Perhaps it’s out there and I’m just not seeing it but when a QB takes 9 sacks and throws 4 picks, generally Twitter and this forum are overloaded with screenshots and game clips showing all the plays the QB missed.  I’d love for someone with the all-22 to provide the evidence that he had a lot of plays to make and chose to get sacked or throw a pick instead.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, method man said:

That Jets game could swing things and Ron has given us a surprise win over a much better team each of his three seasons so far. 
 

I do think they can use the “formula” from 2021 & 2022 to get to 9-8 or even 10-7 with a more capable passer in Sam vs Heinicke

 

I thought before the season 7-10 was the floor, 10-7 the ceiling.  8-9 the most likely outcome.

 

i have more faith in Sam than this offensive line.  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[Skinsinparadise]

12 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I’ve seen a lot of numbers that indicate Sam holds the ball too long, creates his own pressure, responsible for most sacks, etc. but it’s 7:22pm the Tuesday following the loss and I’ve seen a total of one play being litigated online.  Perhaps it’s out there and I’m just not seeing it but when a QB takes 9 sacks and throws 4 picks, generally Twitter and this forum are overloaded with screenshots and game clips showing all the plays the QB missed.  I’d love for someone with the all-22 to provide the evidence that he had a lot of plays to make and chose to get sacked or throw a pick instead.

 

I'd add to that.

 

A.  If his receivers aren't getting open.  And yes its not just a narrative from those who rewatched the games but also stats indicate it.

 

B.  Opposing defenses are bringing pressure with 4 and having 7 in coverage

 

C.  We are to my eyes often protecting with 6 so opposing defenses need less men to cover and can focus easier on Terry and Jahan.

 

So some are hammering Howell for holding on to the ball.  If his receivers aren't open in large part because their opponents can get pressure with just 4 -- that's on the O line not him.  

 

I've said before as for PFF, I like them on some fronts and on some fronts I don't.   Where I like them is their grades of players -- strengths and weaknesses are often revealing to me. 

 

But as far as grading units to me they are hit and miss.  It depends IMO.   And they are hipsters just in general as to blaming QBs on sacks versus the O line.  Ditto as far as putting poor running games almost exclusively on the run blocking.   

 

But even running with PFF and using their own pet theories.  They've had different O lineman with bad games in the first 3.  They like to say its not about the whole unit but a weakness that the opponent can exploit. 

 

They love saying they'd rather have 5 good O lineman, then 1 great, 3 good and one bad one because the bad one sinks the ship.  That's happened ironically in every one of these games according to their own scores.  According them we got pedestrain play in general from the O line except for Cosmi who is above average and Gates who is below average.  But everyone of these games had some bad play from someone. 

 

Also by PFF's own metrics the receivers have been bad.  They put it on them.  But again PFF doesn't factor context in their grades.  I defended PFF at times from their perspective some of their analyists are very aware of this and can explain the context. I've heard them do it.   And even they take their own grades with a grain of salt at times.  For example they've graded Wylie as OK but I've heard one of their anaylist still trash the player. 

 

But look Terry and Dotson don't all of a sudden suck.  If D lines who weren't creating sacks in previous games look like ther 85 Bears against us with 4 man rushes -- and 7 in coverage to drape coverage better around our receivers -- its about all of that converging together.

 

In short the centerpiece of how defenses seem to think they can beat us is bringing pressure with 4 and that's on the O line.  

Edited September 27, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[kingdaddy]

13 hours ago, method man said:

They have 6 games remaining on the schedule vs teams clearly better than them (Philly x2, Cowboys x2, Dolphins & SF) and 8 games remaining against teams on par or worse with them. In my mind, they have to come out of Week 11 at least 7-4 to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. This means beating the Bears, Falcons, Patriots, Seahawks and Giants at least once. Doable but daunting.

I don't know that Washington is better than New England and I don't think they're better than the Seahags....We're gonna struggle to move the ball vs the Jets too but hopefully our defense sets us up in that game. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, kingdaddy said:

I don't know that Washington is better than New England and I don't think they're better than the Seahags....We're gonna struggle to move the ball vs the Jets too but hopefully our defense sets us up in that game. 

 

The Jets game is tricky.  This team typically doesn't play well in NY.  I think we win if Zach Wilson starts.  But I presume by then they will have some veteran that's better than him.

 

This team isn't hot against the run and the Jets can run the ball.

 

[UK Skins]

11 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

That is elite company. Go BRob!!

 

[Skinsinparadise]

12 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

10 wins is possible. Here is how I see it:

 

For sure losses, but we probably steal one(in the last two years we've beaten a team we weren't supposed to-Bucs in 2021, Eagles last year on MNF):

 

-Eagles x 2

-Cowboys x 2

-49ers

-Dolphins

 

Should win. Say what you will about the Rivera era but outside of the Giants in 2020 we tend to beat the teams we're supposed to:

 

-Bears

-Jets

-Rams

 

Coinflip games. These could go either way really:

 

-Giants x 2(honestly should be considered a should win but its the Giants)

-Falcons

-Seahawks

-Patriots

 

We'll need to go 4-1 in the coin flip games and beat all the teams we should beat to get to 10, assuming we can steal one of the for sure losses. The 2nd Cowboy game could be a wild card since it could be like last year where they end up with nothing to play for. 

 

Will see.

 

In my mind I think I was pretty fair.  I had them winning every game that they should.

 

I know the Giants because of that Dallas game have been written off.  But if so, this team should likewise be written off.  Buffalo gave us a similar beating.   Considering how that team owns us, they have a better shot sweeping us than we do of sweeping them.  I split the difference and had us going 1-1 versus them.

 

I think the Giants are better coached than this team as even this team employee Logan Paulsen acknowledges.  But if Andrew Thomas and Barkley are still injured.  I'd pick us to win.  Those 2 are arguably their two best players on offense.  That would be like us without Terry and Robinson.

 

I picked them to beat the Pats but I can see that game go either way.  Ditto the Rams.  The Rams aren't as bad as we thought they'd be so far.   But I predicted they'd win both of these. 

 

They likely win some game we don't expect.  I can see maybe Seattle.  And lose one we don't expect.  Maybe Atlanta?  

Edited September 27, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

29 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So some are hammering Howell for holding on to the ball.  If his receivers aren't open in large part because their opponents can get pressure with just 4 -- that's on the O line not him. 

I feel like if there was a bunch of damning evidence showing open reads and Sam is choosing to run into a sack instead, we’d have seen it already.

 

What you are saying makes total sense.  On the broadcast, there were no glaringly obvious missed receivers that I saw.  I haven’t played it back again though.  @skinny21 I know you did run it back and said the line wasn’t as bad as you thought the first time around on the broadcast.  We’re you able to notice any blatant misses by Sam, as far as having outlets for the ball that he didn’t pull the trigger on?

 

 

[Koolblue13]

We're running 6 and 7 man protections and defenses are eating our lunch with 4 man rushes. 

 

That's just awful. 

 

 

[kingdaddy]

4 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I feel like if there was a bunch of damning evidence showing open reads and Sam is choosing to run into a sack instead, we’d have seen it already.

 

What you are saying makes total sense.  On the broadcast, there were no glaringly obvious missed receivers that I saw.  I haven’t played it back again though.  @skinny21 I know you did run it back and said the line wasn’t as bad as you thought the first time around on the broadcast.  We’re you able to notice any blatant misses by Sam, as far as having outlets for the ball that he didn’t pull the trigger on?

 

 

Someone on ES posted video of how badly Sam missed a wide open (no one within 6 yards) Dotson standing in the endzone on the missed redzone drive where we turned it over on downs. So that's one we know of. 

[FootballZombie]

Even if every receiver is perfectly covered the fan in the first row of section 103 is always open.

 

If nobody is open and there are no obvious running lanes, QBs have the power to prevent negatives plays by yeeting that ball into the upper deck.

[MartinC]

14 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Someone on ES posted video of how badly Sam missed a wide open (no one within 6 yards) Dotson standing in the endzone on the missed redzone drive where we turned it over on downs. So that's one we know of. 

That was misleading. I commented on that and explained why Dotson looked so wide open at that point. 
 

On 9/25/2023 at 1:41 PM, MartinC said:

Howell was working the right side of the field from a numbers perspective - he had a 2v3 to that side versus a 3v4 to the bottom. The play was likely designed to go to Turner as the #1 - they had been working on that a ton in the week apparently. And the defender who would have been on Dotson only came off when it was clear Howell was committed to the other side. it looks like Dotson was wide open, but he wasn't part of the play at that point, if Sam had worked that side the defender doesn't come off