BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[TheGreatBuzz]

1 hour ago, Llevron said:

How much you wanna bet we are gonna stop worrying about this virus now that we know it’s basically for poor and minority people? 

I know I feel a lot safer.

 

-Well-Off White Dude

[purbeast]

9 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

I know I feel a lot safer.

 

-Well-Off White Dude

I am a well off white dude but will feel a lot better once I know if I'm getting paid for the past month I've been forced to take off lol.  As of now, I haven't.

[EmirOfShmo]

Here in western Richmond, a nursing home/rehab facility has 109 confirmed residents & staff members who have tested positive for COVID-19. As of earlier this morning, 32 people have died. This started on March 24th - 15 days ago - with an initial report of 10 cases positive for COVID-19 & 2 deaths - 4 in the hospital & 4 being treated at the facility. This facility has 50% of the reported deaths in Virginia.

 

My thoughts & prayers for those with relatives at this facility. Not being able to visit or to be there when a relative passes is beyond sad.  

 

https://www.wric.com/news/local-news/death-toll-at-canterbury-reaches-32/

 

 

[Fresh8686]

24 minutes ago, Kosher Ham said:

Perhaps you don't. 

 

How about we both take a second and compare/contrast the following variables between the flu and covid-19 ?

 

What is the R0 value for each so far or estimated R0 range in Covid-19’s case?

 

What is the estimated fatality rate for Covid versus the flu?

 

What is the timeline for the flu deaths vs the timeline so far for Covid? Hint, One is a much longer time frame than the other because one is still in progress. 

 

Then what are the differences in fatality rates per capita in those countries implementing social distancing versus those who are not?

 

Now im not going to make the mistake of doing the work for you. Compare those variable and maybe then you’ll get it. 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Fresh8686

[88Comrade2000]

Lucky to those healthy.

People with health conditions like me will have to keep our lives like this until a vaccine can be administered to us. 

 

Wonder why Cuomo is getting all the airtime, nationally. There are other states.

[Jumbo]

1 hour ago, Llevron said:

How much you wanna bet we are gonna stop worrying about this virus now that we know it’s basically for poor and minority people? 

 

 

it may fortify how the vast majority of gop congresspeeps---a group already an obvious testimony to the nutterism, racism, and sexism that is a big part of the gop core just by its (the gop congress) demographics---are going about this, being so supportive in backing back trump's narcissistic and murderously incompetent political-hack handling of this pandemic

 

 

[Die Hard]

51 minutes ago, Llevron said:

that’s exactly who I mean by we. You may not be that kind of guy. I may not be that kind of guy. But I fear Americans in general have allowed for that kind of guy to run the ship long enough that America itself is going to be that kind of guy. 
 

but you are right - they straight up said out loud that old people should be willing to die for the rest of us. Which is just ****ing insane. 

 

I believe the real cognitive dissonance here is, there are a lot of interpretations of what it means to be an 'American'. I don't even know how you could co-exist.

[tshile]

37 minutes ago, Kosher Ham said:

I am not saying that we shouldn't worry about it. I'm saying that we didn't blink an eye about the flu. 

 

Something is not necessarily being said about it. 

no it’s been said. 
 

and refuted repeatedly. It’s been going on since the start. 
 

there is a subset of people that will always hold onto this view. It doesn’t matter how it’s explained. They won’t get it because they don’t want to get it. 

[Die Hard]

32 minutes ago, tshile said:

no it’s been said. 
 

and refuted repeatedly. It’s been going on since the start. 
 

there is a subset of people that will always hold onto this view. It doesn’t matter how it’s explained. They won’t get it because they don’t want to get it. 

 

Isn't it funny though, the compulsion (burden/responsibility) to explain/justify something to others so we can feel understood, or to agree (validation) - as a means of connection. It's not the most efficient strategy.

 

It's too bad we can't just skip all the pre-requisites.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Die Hard

[No Excuses]

46 minutes ago, Kosher Ham said:

I am not saying that we shouldn't worry about it. I'm saying that we didn't blink an eye about the flu.  

 

Something is not necessarily being said about it. 

 

We don't blink an eye about the flu because we vaccinate against it, have anti-virals to treat people and we factor it into hospital capacity because we know typically how many flu cases require hospital care each season.

 

We blink an eye about a new virus that is according to data 5x more contagious than the flu, it doesn't have a vaccine, does not have anti-virals and our hospitals aren't equipped to deal with a sudden surge of patients beyond capacity.

 

Not very hard to understand.

Edited April 8, 2020 by No Excuses

[spjunkies]

 

[Llevron]

24 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

 

I believe the real cognitive dissonance here is, there are a lot of interpretations of what it means to be an 'American'. I don't even know how you could co-exist.

 

Honestly im not following what you are saying here, forgive me. Im not trying to say what it means to be American or even that Americans would stop caring about this pandemic now that the thought may be its only effecting poor or minority folk. Just to be clear, im more worried about the direction of the country as a unit than the people in it. Im convinced that the people of this country for the most part are good people but just want to mind their own business. And im not radical enough, yet, to think that someone avoiding conflict that doesn't directly effect them makes them a bad person. 

 

If you mean to say that you dont know how I co-exist knowing that there are people in this country whose interpretation of 'American' excludes me or others.....honestly this website helps. I interact more honestly here with white people than most other places in my life. Im not 100% honest with those I work with. They dont know me and I dont know them and that is by design. But I dont have to impress you people. And yall don't have to give a damn about me. But knowing we can disagree openly so much and still be so close in our humanity really does help someone sheltered like me. I wish I could share that with others. The anonymity of the internet is a wonderful thing in some cases. Its almost therapeutic. 

 

Tangent, my bad. But I wasnt sure how to respond so I just started typing. 

[Die Hard]

1 minute ago, Llevron said:

 

Honestly im not following what you are saying here, forgive me. Im not trying to say what it means to be American or even that Americans would stop caring about this pandemic now that the thought may be its only effecting poor or minority folk. Just to be clear, im more worried about the direction of the country as a unit than the people in it. Im convinced that the people of this country for the most part are good people but just want to mind their own business. And im not radical enough, yet, to think that someone avoiding conflict that doesn't directly effect them makes them a bad person. 

 

If you mean to say that you dont know how I co-exist knowing that there are people in this country whose interpretation of 'American' excludes me or others.....honestly this website helps. I interact more honestly here with white people than most other places in my life. Im not 100% honest with those I work with. They dont know me and I dont know them and that is by design. But I dont have to impress you people. And yall don't have to give a damn about me. But knowing we can disagree openly so much and still be so close in our humanity really does help someone sheltered like me. I wish I could share that with others. The anonymity of the internet is a wonderful thing in some cases. Its almost therapeutic. 

 

Tangent, my bad. But I wasnt sure how to respond so I just started typing. 

 

I love your response. Especially the tagline. I'm juggling a few balls right now.... but I'll honor your reply in a bit 🙂

[stoshuaj]

34 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

 

We don't blink an eye about the flu because we vaccinate against it, have anti-virals to treat people and we factor it into hospital capacity because we know typically how many flu cases require hospital care each season.

 

We blink an eye about a new virus that is according to data 5x more contagious than the flu, it doesn't have a vaccine, does not have anti-virals and our hospitals aren't equipped to deal with a sudden surge of patients beyond capacity.

 

Not very hard to understand.

Thank you for the simplest term perspective that should be understandable to any donkey in respective circles.    Emphasis on should.

 

As an aside, ffs it really isn’t that hard if my dumbass can get it.  Intentionally obtuse is the alternative.

Edited April 8, 2020 by stoshuaj

[tshile]

54 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

 

Isn't it funny though, the compulsion (burden/responsibility) to explain/justify something to others so we can feel understood, or to agree (validation) - as a means of connection. It's not the most efficient strategy.

 

It's too bad we can't just skip all the pre-requisites.

 

yeah but that's not what this is. this is shooting down misinformation. misinformation that's been shot down thoroughly for a while

 

but yeah, i understand what you're talking about. i try to fight it at least on message boards cause it's not worth it.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

 

 

 

2

1 hour ago, Fresh8686 said:

What is the R0 value for each so far or estimated R0 range in Covid-19’s case?

 

What is the estimated fatality rate for Covid versus the flu?

 

 

The difference in these two areas between the flu and COVID-19 is massive...

 

Unfortunately, some are only able to judge things based on overall numbers with zero context. It's the foundation of the whole "Flu is worse" argument.

[tshile]

22 minutes ago, stoshuaj said:

As an aside, ffs it really isn’t that hard if my dumbass can get it.  Intentionally obtuse is the alternative.

 

That's why i've resigned myself to the fact that the people that don't get it, at this point, are people that don't want to get it. There's a list of reasons. Some people's ego can't take admitting they were wrong. For others, there's political ideology involve that they let govern everything about their thought process. I think outright denial - either of the actual issue or of the fact that they're susceptible - exists even within people that normally wouldn't fall into the other categories. I also think some people just like to naturally buck the system - i find myself on the contrarian side of things often so I can relate.

 

But at this point the problem is not that the subject is complicated. It's not that it hasn't been explained. And it's not that it's a (objectively) controversial discussion. It isn't a matter of opinion, and the resources to get clarification are numerous. Our federal government is holding daily, sometimes twice daily, press conferences where this sort of information is disseminated. States are too.

 

So there's just only so many options left. And all of them involve a person deciding it's more important to take that side of the issue (for whatever reason), than to respect the information out there about it.

 

I believe that is called Ignorance.

[Renegade7]

3 hours ago, Llevron said:

How much you wanna bet we are gonna stop worrying about this virus now that we know it’s basically for poor and minority people? 

 

Not going to react to it.

 

The reporting and narrative are just words, not what's actually happening on the ground. Some are close, some aren't trying, some can't even if they tried.

 

Blacks have a higher chance of getting diabetes and heart disease just from our genetics, couples with lower rate of having health insurance and a higher chance of living in cities, that's more correlation and causality then racism.

 

In the meantime, the numbers from rural America don't lie regardless of what they want to believe or Trump or Fox fart out their mouth.

 

Coronavirus Was Slow to Spread to Rural America. Not Anymore. https://nyti.ms/2RnsRjr

 

There is too much intentional or unintentional underreporting going on.  Some folks dying in their houses from COVID aren't being added to the daily numbers.  In at the point that some numbers matter based on who they are coming from, but not all numbers are accurate enough to help me decide what to do. 

 

Thankfully, that's not my job, it just makes it harder planning for because I'm already ready for getting used to the new normal instead of hiding from it, just waiting for the scientific community to say it's okay and how.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Renegade7

[Forehead]

I'm ready for this thing to be over with, the toilet paper supplies are starting to get a little bit low.

 

On a more serious note, about the only thing of note recently is that someone (or multiple persons) tried to break into our shed sometime in the past day or two.  The slide bolt and lock frame were pretty mangled but I can't tell if they got in or not, nothing was missing...or we had nothing they wanted.

 

Hardware store guy said the most likely culprit is laborers, the Hispanic part went unsaid.  He had a theory.  Apparently, there have been something like 8-10 of these shed break-ins in my area in the past three weeks, and at least in a few cases, the only thing that was stolen was gas powered appliances like string trimmers.  Because construction jobs are drying up with no one wanting people in their house, doing lawn jobs is a fallback for a lot of these folks.  But the local lawn companies have all the help they need, so these folks are starting their own companies, but they don't have any equipment or the money to buy it.  Hence the break-ins and only taking trimmers, mowers, etc.

 

Who knows.  Cost me $12 to get a much heftier bolt and latch.  Hopefully the person who did it doesn't get desperate and try to do worse somewhere else.

[The Evil Genius]

 

Would help explain the lower death rate in California.  374 total deaths so far with a population of about 40mil.

 

As someone who had a bad case of the flu back in mid January, that scares the **** out of me. 

Edited April 8, 2020 by The Evil Genius

[No Excuses]

5 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

Would help explain the lower death rate in California.  374 total deaths so far with a population of about 40mil.

 

As someone who had a bad case of the flu back in mid January, that scares the **** out of me. 

 

I posted in this thread a few days ago about rumors floating around that China was aware of this as early as mid-November. It's already semi-confirmed that the first positive tests can be traced to mid-November, although this was reported as people who went back and tested old samples. And in a lot of non-Chinese media, there were reports like Chinese social media having increased chatter about "SARS" and public panic over a health emergency in November.

 

Today we learned that our intelligence community was aware of a new viral outbreak in Wuhan by Thanksgiving. Given what we know about how infectious this is, if our intelligence agencies were picking up signals in November, that means the outbreak probably started before that. And again, this is a very infectious virus so most likely it had started spreading around the world last year already.

 

I am becoming more and more confident that China is a lot more culpable than we think in the spread of this outbreak because of their incessant desire to censor information. We may have lost a lot of valuable time in preparing and fighting this thing because the pandemic started in a modern-day dystopian hellscape that the CCP has created.

[Llevron]

42 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Not going to react to it.

 

In the meantime, the numbers from rural America don't lie regardless of what they want to believe or Trump or Fox fart out their mouth.

 

Coronavirus Was Slow to Spread to Rural America. Not Anymore. https://nyti.ms/2RnsRjr

 

 

Damn I would have never known this if not for your link here. Thats an eye opener. Makes me wonder what the numbers look like nationally now (I havent read your entire link, so if its there forgive me, but I will) 

[Bacon]

3 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

Is there a particular reason why you think the 100K to 200K death models are over estimating?

 

It depends on how far out you want to extend the estimate. If it's to the end of the year, I don't think 100k is an overestimate because a second wave is a very real threat. But all of the models I've seen are lowering their estimates with time and if we're just talking about a single wave of the virus, 100k would be at the absolute highest point of the projections that account for the current situation with social distancing.

 

The "exponential growth" doomers on twitter and reddit that predicted millions of Americans would die in a few months are being forced to pivot away from their original guesses (I won't call them estimates) and thank God for that.

[No Excuses]

Just now, Bacon said:

 

The "exponential growth" doomers on twitter and reddit that predicted millions of Americans would die in a few months are being forced to pivot away from their original guesses (I won't call them estimates) and thank God for that.

 

These "guesses" were estimates on worst case scenarios from the best public health agencies we have in the Western developed world. Without social distancing measures, we were headed for these worst case scenarios. This kind of revisionism is very dangerous if we actually want to be prepared for a second wave. Don't do it.

[Momma There Goes That Man]

2 hours ago, Kosher Ham said:

Around eighty thousand died two years ago, from the typical flu. 

well it’s not surprising your appearance in this conversation comes armed with this ignorant point