BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[Die Hard]

1 hour ago, tshile said:

 

yeah but that's not what this is. this is shooting down misinformation. misinformation that's been shot down thoroughly for a while

 

but yeah, i understand what you're talking about. i try to fight it at least on message boards cause it's not worth it.

 

Isn’t it though? You dIdn’t have the expectation that when presented with information.data.science (credibility and all) to refute his claim/argument, especially repeatedly, that he would inherently agree? 😉 And because he refuses, there’s a disconnect. That’s all I’m saying lol

 

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Die Hard

[skinny21]

Re. COVID-19 vs the flu...

 

Projected 2 million deaths (without serious measures) vs 80,000 deaths.

 

I’m not a big math guy, but....

[Destino]

15 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Re. COVID-19 vs the flu...

 

Projected 2 million deaths (without serious measures) vs 80,000 deaths.

 

I’m not a big math guy, but....

flu will kill around 90k without anyone altering their behavior very much.  Corona will kill about that despite most of the country on lock down, wearing masks, and staying away from everyone they don’t live with.  The difference is obvious.

 

This was predicted.  When we started discussing the need to social distance and stay home, people were saying that if it worked the naysayers would use that success to argue the threat was overstated.  

[PeterMP]

1 minute ago, Bacon said:

 

It depends on how far out you want to extend the estimate. If it's to the end of the year, I don't think 100k is an overestimate because a second wave is a very real threat. But all of the models I've seen are lowering their estimates with time and if we're just talking about a single wave of the virus, 100k would be at the absolute highest point of the projections that account for the current situation with social distancing.

 

The "exponential growth" doomers on twitter and reddit that predicted millions of Americans would die in a few months are being forced to pivot away from their original guesses (I won't call them estimates) and thank God for that.

 

I don't know about doomers on twitter and reddit, but the 2 million number was if nobody did nothing at all over several months (the peak deaths would be in late June early July).

 

The same paper reported doing nothing at all would result in 510,000 deaths in Great Britian, but extreme actions could cut it to under 5,600 people.

 

Obviously, they would have predicted the similar results for us.  The 2.2 million was never going to happen because even when the paper was released people had already started to act.  The NBA had already suspended play.

[NoVaSkins21]

2 hours ago, spjunkies said:

 

 

Drumpf didn't give a **** back then when he should have and still didn't care until mid March.  Shows how TERRIBLE he is and his administration is.  Yes, please re-elect his dumb@ss for 4 more years.  SMH!

[tshile]

37 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

You dIdn’t have the expectation that when presented with information.data.science (credibility and all) to refute his claim/argument, especially repeatedly, that he would inherently agree?

Nah I’ve read his posts before 

 

most of the people doing it in this thread, have a solid history of doing it often 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

3 hours ago, Kosher Ham said:

Around eighty thousand died two years ago, from the typical flu. 

 

If you're meaning 2017-2018...

 

"total flu-related deaths during 2017-2018 was previously estimated to be 79,000, but the current estimate is 61,000" (got this from the CDC website)

 

 

[Bacon]

38 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

 

These "guesses" were estimates on worst case scenarios from the best public health agencies we have in the Western developed world. Without social distancing measures, we were headed for these worst case scenarios. This kind of revisionism is very dangerous if we actually want to be prepared for a second wave. Don't do it.

 

Fair enough. I won't pretend to be objective about this topic. As someone who battles anxiety and depression every day, I will always be resentful of the way this pandemic was reported on. It wasn't until I cut my media consumption in half and turned my attention to local journalism that I felt I could grapple with the realities of the pandemic in a productive manner. 

 

Where were the best case scenarios that estimated the possible impact of social distancing and encouraged proactive behavior? I don't remember reading those. There was no hope, only food shortages and fear. "Studies suggest that social distancing could reduce COVID-19 deaths by magnitudes" is just as important to know as "2.2 million Americans will die if you don't stay in your house and lock the door."

[The Evil Genius]

There was info like this presented earlier...

 

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by The Evil Genius

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

 

 

 

2

20 minutes ago, Bacon said:

Where were the best case scenarios that estimated the possible impact of social distancing and encouraged proactive behavior? I don't remember reading those. There was no hope, only food shortages and fear. "Studies suggest that social distancing could reduce COVID-19 deaths by magnitudes" is just as important to know as "2.2 million Americans will die if you don't stay in your house and lock the door."

 

They were definitely out there. Unfortunately, at the same time it was happening, our president was downplaying the seriousness of COVID-19 to such an intense degree that it made putting the harsher realities out there imperative. people are more likely to stay home if they know not doing so could lead to millions of deaths than they would if they're being told the flu is far worse and it'll blow over soon, no worries.

[PeterMP]

27 minutes ago, Bacon said:

 

Fair enough. I won't pretend to be objective about this topic. As someone who battles anxiety and depression every day, I will always be resentful of the way this pandemic was reported on. It wasn't until I cut my media consumption in half and turned my attention to local journalism that I felt I could grapple with the realities of the pandemic in a productive manner. 

 

Where were the best case scenarios that estimated the possible impact of social distancing and encouraged proactive behavior? I don't remember reading those. There was no hope, only food shortages and fear. "Studies suggest that social distancing could reduce COVID-19 deaths by magnitudes" is just as important to know as "2.2 million Americans will die if you don't stay in your house and lock the door."

 

Here's the actual study that 2.2 million comes from.  They don't give you a break down of deaths in the US based on actions/behavior of the virus, but they do for Great Britain in Table 4.

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

The high end number for Great Britain is 550,000 deaths.  The same behavior (do nothing) and properties of the virus (Ro) is what generates the 2.2 million deaths in the US.  The low end number for Great Britain is 5,600 deaths.  The same sort of math would apply to the US.

 

Obviously, head line writers tend to go for the extreme, but the paper is in the public domain and was linked in several stories.

 

But the fact that people were calling for social distancing should have been an indication that people thought we could cut that number drastically.  Shutting down your economy for minimal benefit (i.e. essentially the same number of people are going to die) doesn't make much sense. Nobody would suggest doing what we're doing if there is no real benefit.

[No Excuses]

36 minutes ago, Bacon said:

Where were the best case scenarios that estimated the possible impact of social distancing and encouraged proactive behavior? I don't remember reading those. There was no hope, only food shortages and fear. "Studies suggest that social distancing could reduce COVID-19 deaths by magnitudes" is just as important to know as "2.2 million Americans will die if you don't stay in your house and lock the door." 

 

I don't know which sources you were reading but this was reported on! It's why we enacted these measures, because in every public health report the recommendation was to enact physical distancing as soon as possible to limit the spread of the virus and save lives.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

the Washington model  that everyone is referring to had a large range from around 40k to around 150k dead a week and a half ago, with the most likely scenerio being around 85k.  
 

Then it got bumped up to 95k when NYC started getting real bad and now went down to around 85k now because it looks like Cali might not get hit so hard. Overall I think the models did OK.

 

I think the 150-200k was only brought up by the task force and that was right around the time Trump wanted to open stuff up by Easter.

[hail2skins]

36 minutes ago, Califan007 said:

 

They were definitely out there. Unfortunately, at the same time it was happening, our president was downplaying the seriousness of COVID-19 to such an intense degree that it made putting the harsher realities out there imperative. people are more likely to stay home if they know not doing so could lead to millions of deaths than they would if they're being told the flu is far worse and it'll blow over soon, no worries.

Yeah, I'm almost convinced that putting a six-figure death toll even at the lower end of the estimates was purposefuily done to scare the crap out of people to take this things seriously. 

 

The whole thing just has me disgusted by people's attitudes. Folks at work who have been saying "its just a cold" and "but 12K died from H1N1 under Obama" are now wearing masks.  What, the stats have been out there for well over a month saying this thing was 10x deadlier than the flu didn't make people's hair on their necks stand up?  I just don't get it.

 

Saw a comment on Twitter from conservative blogger Erick Erickson saying how, instead of unifying us like after 9/11, this thing seems to have further divided us, as people are increasingly going into their media of choice safe space to be told what they want to hear.  We have really become a poorer nation because of it all. 

[PCS]

 

 

 

 

 

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

[visionary]

 

[Larry]

4 hours ago, Llevron said:

I interact more honestly here with white people than most other places in my life. Im not 100% honest with those I work with. They dont know me and I dont know them and that is by design. But I dont have to impress you people. And yall don't have to give a damn about me.

 

Actually, I didn't know you were black till now.  

 

But I can start treating you differently, now.  If it would make you feel more at home.  

[Die Hard]

8 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

Actually, I didn't know you were black till now.  

 

But I can start treating you differently, now.  If it would make you feel more at home.  

 

I never got the memo about ‘fonts’ being racial!!! Lol

[StillUnknown]

 

i question heavily if whats left of this country is worth saving

[Wildbunny]

3 hours ago, Destino said:

This was predicted.  When we started discussing the need to social distance and stay home, people were saying that if it worked the naysayers would use that success to argue the threat was overstated.  

That's like painting a yellow line in NY streets to prevent lions from walking and chasing people in NYC as they please.

 

The fact that there's no lions in NYC is furthermore proof that the yellow line works as intended...

[visionary]

 

[visionary]

 

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

Who is that smiling off to the left behind Fauci?

Edited April 8, 2020 by visionary

[PCS]