Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Malapropismic Depository]

8 minutes ago, Busch1724 said:

As much as I like him, don't give more than 2 1's, if that. You need draft capital to help him out. 

 

Yes, or he will be in a similar situation as the one he is trying to escape from right now.

Jets seem like a popular place he is predicted to go, but again, especially given his experience in Houston and perception of it, I don't think he'd be fond of a move to the Jets.

Unless he's a big fan of Saleh and believes he can turn it around

[heyholetsgogrant]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

will see

 

 

 

Haven't we heard that before?  Luckily, most teams don't have a controlling owner.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

Teams needing QBs is not unique.

 

This many teams needing it at the same time is indeed unique.  The reason why dudes who have been around the NFL forever like Schefter are tweeting about this specifically -- isn't because its same old same old, yawn, or they are having memory lapses and forgetting how it was the same in previous seasons.... it's because it's unique and worth commenting about it as such.  So many teams looking to start over in convergence with aging QBs poised to retire soon.

 

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

 

Then there is the question of will teams do like Denver did in 2019, or what we did in 2011 and just pass on a QB because they either don't like the guys available or they think they can get a value guy later in the draft. 

 

I'm even looking at the runs and its showing that the runs don't go 5 QBs deep. The fifth QB was taken #12. Only other time there were 5 QBs in the first was 2018 and Jackson went number 32. I can't see this being another 1999.

 

You have I noticed cited mock drafters to back some of your takes.  If so, some of them are flying against your thought here.  Most mocks have four QBs going top 10.  As for the 5th QB, Matt Jones, its a mixed bag, some have him going as early as top 10, some have him going anywhere in the first or early 2nd.  Will see. 

 

I gather you don't think this year for QB is much different that any other year.  But plenty saw 2019 as the perfect storm for a QB needy team because there weren't that many teams shopping then for one.  So a team like Denver could take more risks as for waiting in the draft.  Plus there didn't seem to be a consensus about Lock in that draft even among the draft geeks  who you seem to value on these type of topics. 

 

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

If we want Jones or Newman I think they'll both be available at our pick. Question becomes how good will they be and assuming they're the fifth QB taken, only Bulger and Jackson were the 5th QBs taken in a draft and wound up being franchise guys. Garrad, Dalton, Schaub, Jimmy G and Briissett were decent starters and the rest were busts. So the 5th QB taken is a risky spot to make your first round pick. We've got a chance to take say the top ILB or the 5th best QB? 

 

Probably so.  Although some think Jones goes before hand.  I agree with the general point here which is getting that next tier first round talent are often busts.  I made that point several times on this thread in a big way.  These sort of late first round/2nd round talents and that would pertain to guys like Ramsey, Campbell, Haskins often don't turn into franchise guys. 

 

I recall plenty of talk that Ramsey and Campbell were projected by many to go in the 2nd.  If you look at the bust rates in the 2nd round by the way at QB its staggering.  Haskins was the third taken Qb but that was in a crap draft for the QB position.   Some saw him as a 2nd rounder too -- granted those weren't the mock drafter types but personnel types who were quoted anoynmously.  Keim said multiple times that from what he knows if the WFT didn't take him at 15 he might have dropped to the 2nd.  I bet we can say the same for Ramsey and Campbell.  We aren't the only team that reaches, there have been plenty of reaches like that. 

 

I put more stock in the scouts take than media guys like Kiper, etc.  The mock drafters tend to have elevated opinons about most big name college QBs especially from big schools.  They love the Brady Quinn types and are often wrong about them.  Kiper said once before the draft he was so sure of Jimmy Clausen that he'd quit his job if he failed in the NFL.  Yet, Clausen didn't even go in the first round. 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[HigSkin]

59 minutes ago, KDawg said:

If he really has an obsession with Super Bowl it’s actually a fairly scary prospect.

 

Gotta risk it for the biscuit and high end QBs cost... ya... I’ve heard them both.

 

I think being overly aggressive for a QB is actually a quick fix that isn’t to set up long term success but rather win right now.

 

And my problem with that approach is that I don’t think we have the roster to do that. We are one significant injury on the DL to any of the starting four from the wheels coming off the wagon.

 

In order for the win now move to be successful we need two quality receivers, at minimum one inside backer who is a stud, Darby or another reclamation CB, a left tackle, Scherff, and a strong running game. 
 

That’s what the Chiefs have. That’s what the Bucs have. That’s what the Packers have (though we saw their corner weakness stick out like a sore thumb and they are short on big time receivers as well aside from Adams). This is what the Bills have. 
 

If we can fix the major holes (I’ll be nice and say ILB, WRx2, LT) we can have a shot. If Scherff is gone add guard to that list. Free safety could be one of those holes, too. 
 

So the win now move can work if we can still manage to get all of those needs filled and not rank the next year or two after this season.

 

But does anyone think the roster as constructed and realistic additions + Watson can go toe to toe with KC? Buffalo? Tampa? New Orleans? The Rams with a QB? Hell, SF with a QB?
 

How about a realistic roster + Stafford?

 

Anything can happen. Upsets happen and runs happen. So the point that if you have the QB you’re in position to capitalize on “**** happens” isn’t lost on me. 
 

The roster needs a lot of work to hang with those aforementioned teams though. 

 

I agree with you and I'm just trying to connect the coach speak with the outcome of the search.  🙂 

 

From a coaches perspective and if we're looking at what happened this year, our D was "good enough" this year but the offense just couldn't generate more points.  Had we just decent QB play we'd have a much better gauge on where there team really is.  Every NFL roster isn't complete, ours certainly isn't either.  The big elephant in the room is how to beat teams you mention like a KC and that's going to be scoring a bunch - hence the need for uber talented QB play. 

 

Yes, getting a guy like Watson is the perfect storm in two ways.  1)  You might get there faster pairing him with a good D but 2) you're eventually going pay for it in cap and roster problems.  It's a matter of what this group is willing to sacrifice. 

 

If it was me, I'd go after Stafford hard, he's the cheapest talent and maybe they are but we'll just have to let the grown-ups make those decisions.  LOL

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by HigSkin

[Malapropismic Depository]

So, what's the apparent consensus here, on which QB to target ? Stafford maybe ?

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

I agree with you and I'm just trying to connect the coach speak with the outcome of the search.  🙂 

 

From a coaches perspective and if we're looking at what happened this year, our D was "good enough" this year but the offense just couldn't generate more points.  Had we just decent QB play we'd have a much better gauge on where there team really is.  Every NFL roster isn't complete, ours certainly isn't either.  The big elephant in the room is how to beat teams you mention like a KC and that's going to be scoring a bunch - hence the need for uber talented QB play. 

 

Yes, getting a guy like Watson is the perfect storm in two ways.  1)  You might get there faster but 2) you're eventually going pay for it in cap and roster problems.  It's a matter of what this group is willing to sacrifice. 

 

If it was me, I'd go after Stafford hard, he's the cheapest talent and maybe they are but we'll just have to let the grown-ups make those decisions.  LOL

 

 

 

 

 

I'd actually argue the way you beat KC is having a consistent scoring offense in the mid 20s and capable of more that controls the clock...

 

And slowing KC down with some forced turnovers and strong defense. Notice I said slow them down, not stop them. You don't stop KC. But if your D is weak you're going to get torn to shreds.

 

I don't care who your offense consists of, you're not keeping pace with KC in a shootout.

Edited January 29, 2021 by KDawg

[ksun247]

I think we should target Jameis Winston. He's a free agent. He got LASIK eye surgery to correct his vision. He spent a year watching and learning behind Drew Brees. He'll be a cheaper option and we don't have to give up draft picks. 

[skinny21]

Kind of a dumb question, but regarding the possibility of Dallas tagging and trading Dak, does he have to pass a physical?  Or can a team get doctor assurance that he’s on schedule in terms of recovery?  TBH, I actually have no idea where he stands health-wise

[HigSkin]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

 

I'd actually argue the way you beat KC is having a consistent scoring offense in the mid 20s and capable of more that controls the clock...

 

And slowing KC down with some forced turnovers and strong defense. Notice I said slow them down, not stop them. You don't stop KC. But if your D is weak you're going to get torn to shreds. I don't care who your offense consists of, you're not keeping pace with KC in a shootout.

 

We're about to find out if that's true in this upcoming SB with KC's offense versus Tampa's tough defense.

[Busch1724]

1 minute ago, ksun247 said:

I think we should target Jameis Winston. He's a free agent. He got LASIK eye surgery to correct his vision. He spent a year watching and learning behind Drew Brees. He'll be a cheaper option and we don't have to give up draft picks. 

 

Additionally, keep Alex so they can duke it out in a competition. Alex will also mentor him and help him learn. 

[Lovi]

2 minutes ago, ksun247 said:

I think we should target Jameis Winston. He's a free agent. He got LASIK eye surgery to correct his vision. He spent a year watching and learning behind Drew Brees. He'll be a cheaper option and we don't have to give up draft picks. 

 

He'd be easy to lure.  So many crab legs available in this area.

[Busch1724]

29 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

Jets seem like a popular place he is predicted to go, but again, especially given his experience in Houston and perception of it, I don't think he'd be fond of a move to the Jets.

Unless he's a big fan of Saleh and believes he can turn it around

 

There's been reports he's eyeing the Jets and Dolphins specifically. I would doubt Houston would send him to an AFC team. However, the Jets and Dolphins are the only ones with enough draft capital to make it happen and not be too detrimental at this point. 

[ksun247]

Just now, Busch1724 said:

 

Additionally, keep Alex so they can duke it out in a competition. Alex will also mentor him and help him learn. 

 

Can't keep Alex on the roster. Too expensive, if we sign and pay Winston. Alex needs to retire. He has nothing left to prove. 

 

[RWJ]

3 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I agree, we have more than enough to satisfy what I would image the trade price would be. It’s hardly clear that there is any mutual interest really, even a week into the dance.

Agreed.   What I proposed would be ALL I'd give up if I were RR, Mayhew, Hurney IF, IF they wanted ONLY this years draft choices.

[Busch1724]

Just now, ksun247 said:

 

Can't keep Alex on the roster. Too expensive, if we sign and pay Winston. Alex needs to retire. He has nothing left to prove. 

 

 

Yeah, that much is true. Additionally, this is assuming Winston doesn't sign with NO. I don't see how they could though being as far over the cap as they are. They have a plan,  but it could blow up pretty quickly if they can't renegotiate some contracts. 

[Thinking Skins]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You have I noticed cited mock drafters to back some of your takes.  If so, some of them are flying against your thought here.  Most mocks have four QBs going top 10.  As for the 5th QB, Matt Jones, its a mixed bag, some have him going as early as top 10, some have him going anywhere in the first or early 2nd.  Will see. 

 

I garther you don't think this year for QB is much different that any other year.  But plenty saw 2019 as the perfect storm for a QB needy team because there weren't that many teams shopping then for one.  So a team like Denver could take more risks as for waiting in the draft.  Plus there didn't seem to be a consensus about Lock in that draft even among the draft geeks  who you seem to value on these type of topics. 

 

 

Its interesting because I don't take this year as a repeat of any other year, but also I don't take it as the armageddon of QBs where we have these unprecidented things happen. 5QBs going in the top 10 for example, thats unprecidented and I don't see that happening. We have a really good QB class but the question ultimatley is will a team picking in the teens who needs a QB - say NE or SF or even Denver. Are they going to risk not addressing the QB position until the draft in hopes that they land Wilson/Fields/Lance? Then there's the question of how good a Wilson/Fields/Lance/Jonew/Newman will be both this year and ultimately when compared to a Brissett/Winston/Mariota/Darnold/Carr/Jimmy G/etc. There's also the chance of Was/Chi/LAR/Ind/Pit/NOR trading up and picking a QB.

 

What's also "historic" about this year is the number of QBs who are likely to change teams (Watson/Stafford/Brissett/Winston/Mariota/Darnold/Carr/Jimmy G/Darnold/Tribusky/Dak). I think all these teams will do something to address the position before the draft so that they're not forced to pick a guy they're not in love with. Then its a question of do they want to roll with the qb they traded for or got in FA or draft a rookie to compete with them. And some teams will just bow out and say, I'd rather get the WR that was expected to go top 10 but dropped, or the OT, ot the EDGE rusher, or the CB. There are going to be some talented guys who drop because of this hype about the QBs. This also happens every time there's a run on QBs. 

[Malapropismic Depository]

1 minute ago, Busch1724 said:

 

There's been reports he's eyeing the Jets and Dolphins specifically. I would doubt Houston would send him to an AFC team. However, the Jets and Dolphins are the only ones with enough draft capital to make it happen and not be too detrimental at this point. 

 

I have a hard time with the Dolphins being a realistic trade partner. People said we gave up too quickly on Haskins ; so it seems not very plausible that Miami would give up on Tua so quickly, especially to give up so much compensation for his replacement, less than a full year after spending a high 1st rounder on him, and all the overwhelming scouting reports on him.

[redskinss]

3 minutes ago, Busch1724 said:

 

Additionally, keep Alex so they can duke it out in a competition. Alex will also mentor him and help him learn. 

Winston has been in the league for 6 years, not exactly a young prospect anymore that you feel needs mentoring, alex is a great story and a great guy but just because he was the predecessor to Mahomes doesn't make him the quarterback whisperer, that narrative is getting a little played out, look no further than haskins to see that smith's tutoring has limitations. 

If we don't get one of the prizes this off season we need one vet coupled with heinicke and either Allen or a rookie that falls that the coaches like.

That last scenario is the one I'm leaning towards hoping it happens. 

[Anselmheifer]

The poster above has a good point. Why would Watson even consider the Jets? Would his situation be any better there than in Houston, roster wise? 
 

Miami probably looks ok to him. Nice city. Better roster. But I wonder if Miami would really rather start over. They could roll with Tua and draft Smith and Najee and be pretty stacked. 
 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Malapropismic Depository]

Does anyone find it odd, that Watson's GM referred to him as "the player" ? And could that be a telling sign, in the relationship ?

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Malapropismic Depository

[Mooka]

11 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

The poster above has a good point. Why would Watson even consider the Jets? Would his situation be any better there than in Houston, roster wise? 

 

New York market.   (not football related) 

[mistertim]

32 minutes ago, ksun247 said:

I think we should target Jameis Winston. He's a free agent. He got LASIK eye surgery to correct his vision. He spent a year watching and learning behind Drew Brees. He'll be a cheaper option and we don't have to give up draft picks. 

 

There's a reason he'll be a cheap option. He's not very good. 

[JoggingGod]

9 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

Does anyone find it odd, that Watson's GM referred to him as "the player" ? And could that be a telling sign, in the relationship ?

He's gonna get traded whether the Texans like it or not. So yeah.

[evmiii]

For what Watson will cost in draft capital the team that gets him better be ready to win right now.  I really like DW but I’m not ready to mortgage the future for him; we still have too many holes.

 

I think Stafford is a good fit, but I wouldn’t get in a bidding war for him either.  His age plus medical history has to keep the price tag reasonable for this to be worthwhile.  A second and one of our thirds would be a great deal, but I think it’s going to cost more than that to get him.  His back injury scares me enough I wouldn’t go any higher.

 

I think picking up a free agent like Winston, Newton or similar and a good early draft(1-3 rounds) is the best path.  Bring them in to compete with the beer man and Allen (assuming he is healthy) and look for our potential franchise QB with a later round developmental pick or next year.

 

All this could change depending on the draft, if someone the team likes (Young, Jones) falls to #19 we jump and go on from there.

 

Lots of rambling to say I don’t think we are just a good QB away from winning a Super Bowl.  We definitely need one but not at the expense of all our other needs.