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Thinking Skins

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  1. Oh, for those interested, I tested my model of accuracy, yards per attempt, attempts and yards per rush against the success of QBs drafted since 1999 against their PFR AV and it shows a weak correlation. So it seems like these are things to consider but there's definitely more. While there's the easy thing like "hard work" which is not quanitfiable by a statistic, I want to see how much better of a predictor I can make this. One thing I think about is that I haven't been looking at TDs and Ints but thats something that both the Parcells model looks at and something we are really j
  2. I see yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A -- Adjusted Passing Yards Per Attempt; the formula is (Yds + 20 * TD - 45 * Int) / Att)
  3. Where were you able to get air yards per attempt? I was looking for this but PFR doesn't have it. I was looking at other sites but kinda gave up. I think I'm going to go back and update my model to account for year to year stats, but I won't have time to do it before this year's draft. I should probably be looking at Ian Brook as well because I've heard good things about him and he has a lot of the things I'd look for in a QB, but he is on the small side.
  4. My opinion comes from looking at (and trying to understand) stats, not video. But It seems like Kellen Mond is more scary to me than a Lance or Fields because he seems to start running to make a big play running, whereas Lance and Fields can do the Russel Wilson thing where they run to create a better passing lane. This is how I'm interpreting the ypa thingie. and its not just with Mond, but with other QBs who have put up similar numbers in college.
  5. Honestly, i like Newman and think he could be a steal. But his lack of experience scares me. I definitely wouldn't take him in the first. Mond and Trask are less likely to be good starters, and I'd bet that their being good early would depend more on having weapons, a good running game and a defense so they could just play qb without a heavy load. But with that option, i think Mond has the ability to be a Tyrod Taylor type to be decent enough to be good but not good enough to last. I think Newman will be sink or swim. He has all the ability but if he's thrown in early
  6. Yeah those numbers are scary for Mond and great for Jones. My problem is how will Jones do with a pass rush. Mond may check down more often and not really be more than Alex Smith from 2018 if we're lucky. But Jones may get Derek Carred or Patrick Ramseyed
  7. I disagree. Every draft has guys who have a high probability of success and guys who could be steals. The question is how do you Macanudo the chance of a steal. Guys like Mond Newman, Brissett etc all have qualities but drawbacks. The question is can they overcome their drawbacks? i loved McElroy because of him
  8. I remember ASF very well. I loved him, but he seemed to get emotional about things. It wasn't easy to have discussions with him, not that I tried too often. I would often see his threads and people (I think Oldfan) would counter and he'd argue
  9. Something like that. The main reason I want a rookie QB is in case TH and KA suck or get hurt. Then we can go with a rookie to grow. Will he be an all pro? Unlikely. Very unlikely. But it's not unreasonable for the rookie to look decent. And if that's the case the rookie can give us some options going into next year once we're confident that KA and TH aren't the guys. And we can address the position again next year if need be. You can say it's kicking the can down the road, but i don't see many guys as improvements over what we have. Maybe one of the top 4 in the draft, but that's
  10. Its not necessarily about finding the next Brissett. Its about finding somebody who may not be an all pro their rookie year, but can grow into one. I brought up Dak because what I remember about his story is that he was considered mediocre before last year when he went on a tear. Maybe his stats didn't show it. So maybe I should say Andy Dalton. Problem with that is that I'll say Andy Dalton and you'll think about his career and think mayonnaise. But he came in as a rookie and led his team to a 9-7 record, albeit with mediocre stats. He never became the franchise guy but thats not to say that
  11. I don't think there's a magic formula but I do think that there are things you look for. Parcells had things he looked for - 3 year starter - senior - graduate - start 30 games - win 23 games - complete 60 % - 2 to 1 TD / INT ratio. That was for a different era though. We don't see nearly as many QBs start 3 years a much so those first 3 bullets, if not first 5 are gone. But the 60% is something important. I think it needs to be more detailed like 60% in a number of areas of the field (like Haskins had 60% but only to one area of the fiel
  12. Maybe Dak was a high bar as well. I'll stick with Hurts as a good bar. Or look at Jacoby Brissett's second year (first with Indy). He went 4-11, but had 58.8 completion percentage, 3000 yards, 13TDs 7 Ints, 260 yards rushing and 4TDs on 4 yards per run. Nothing spectacular but something that says he can be a starter or a good backup in the league.
  13. I think just like Brady is a high bar for Jones, Wilson is a high bar for these guys. Would I want Wilson? Sure. But I'd say a more reasonable thing is something like Hurts last year or Dak in his rookie year. I'm not saying a finished product but somebody that can come in and not **** the bed. Grier and Finley were two guys I liked a two years ago and they had tons of experience and neither has really done anything (Finley looks like he really doesn't belong). But again neither is mobile and I think mobility helps young QBs. I look at Daniel Jones who I think was overdrafted and his mobility
  14. Ok here are my theories on the commercials My question is how strong is her son's magic and is he also a scarlet witch since his powers are so similar to his mother's?
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