Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Malapropismic Depository]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

This is entire point, though. Those guys and those teams got there ONCE, usually through a perfect storm of factors.

 

 

I actually used the exact phrase "perfect storm" in my post on the previous page, to argue the opposite. Because my argument was that basically every SB is a perfect storm of factors - not just the ones without an elite or Top 5 QB. Even WITH an elite QB, you need a perfect storm. Because just simply look at the countless teams with such a QB, who could not go all the way. That's another long list, just like the long list of average QB's in the SB.

[Skinsinparadise]

56 minutes ago, Burgold said:

It is, but on the other hand, I don't want us trading a king's ransom for an old, heavy footed, oft injured QB who really never elevated his team all that much. Stafford's overrated in my book. If he comes here, I expect him to lift us to 8-8 and then fall apart.

 

 

So that would mean Stafford would be a step down from the Allen/Alex Smith combination?  Considering that would be a worse record taking out the Haskins games.

 

I'll trust Sean McVay knows a thing or two about QBs and offenses considering our best offenses in eons happened when he was here -- so somehow i am doubting among other things that he's just become a dummy overnight and is foolish chasing a QB that he shouldn't.   Ditto Kyle Shanahan if the rumors are true that they are also in the chase.  Both considered by many some of the top offensive minds in the league and arguably already have in house better Qbs than we do.  

 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Burgold]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

So that would mean Stafford would be a step down from the Allen/Alex Smith combination?  Considering that would be a worse record.

 

I'll trust Sean McVay knows a thing or two about QBs and offenses considering our best offenses in eons happened when he was here -- so somehow i am doubting among other things that he's just become a dummy overnight and is foolish chasing a QB that he shouldn't.   Ditto Kyle Shanahan if the rumors are true that they are also in the chase.  Both considered by many some of the top offensive minds in the league and arguably already have in house better Qbs than we do.  

You've heard of  Plato, Aristotle, Socrates... morons. 

[RWJ]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

So that would mean Stafford would be a step down from the Allen/Alex Smith combination?  Considering that would be a worse record.

 

I'll trust Sean McVay knows a thing or two about QBs and offenses considering our best offenses in eons happened when he was here -- so somehow i am doubting among other things that he's just become a dummy overnight and is foolish chasing a QB that he shouldn't. 

McVay's in hot water with Jared Goff's contract.  

Edited January 29, 2021 by RWJ

[Blanka]

That Rams leak seems to be a Lions leverage play imo. Especially if the Niners think a deal is close while trying to holdout #12 pick. Combos of 2's and 3's can be done by many teams. 

 

Stafford going to a divisional rival can up the ante. 

[mistertim]

14 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

I actually used the exact phrase "perfect storm" in my post on the previous page, to argue the opposite. Because my argument was that basically every SB is a perfect storm of factors - not just the ones without an elite or Top 5 QB. Even WITH an elite QB, you need a perfect storm. Because just simply look at the countless teams with such a QB, who could not go all the way. That's another long list, just like the long list of average QB's in the SB.

 

And yet, those same teams with top QBs are the ones that are most often in the playoffs on a year to year basis. That's still a fact, whether you like it or not. And it's also still a fact that NFL coaches, GMs, and scouts all seem to know that having a top QB is of the utmost importance, otherwise they wouldn't put such a premium on the position when drafting.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Would think if there's any way the Rams could trade for Stafford, they would have to get Detroit to take Goff's contract off their hands. So, what do you give up to get Stafford and get someone to take $43 mil of Goff, when you have no 1st round pick this year?

 

Something like this year's 2nd, the next two 1s and a couple of players, maybe Taylor Rapp? Seems like it has to be something crazy like that. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Burgold said:

You've heard of  Plato, Aristotle, Socrates... morons. 

 

2 hours ago, RWJ said:

McVay's in hot water with Jared Goff's contract.  

 

He'd have to unload Goff, they are talking on the radio about maybe he goes to Detroit in the same deal -- I hope the Lions aren't that stupid. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[TheGoodBits]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I would say it’s also a function that these teams had the assets to surround those players with incredible talent and built around them rather than needing to surrender crazy assets to obtain the QB.

 

Mahomes was traded for via draft picks... That’s absolutely true. But the Chiefs were really good before he got there. Perfect time for a draft gamble.

They also had an established veteran quarterback already starting for them. THAT is the perfect time for a draft gamble. Not when you are a borderline playoff team without a QB, but a solid playoff team with one... 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[JoggingGod]

1 hour ago, TheShredder said:

Watson isn't choosing WFT, so all those youngsters arn't going anywhere.

Source: ?

Edited January 29, 2021 by JoggingGod

[KDawg]

Just now, skinsfan_1215 said:

They also had an established veteran quarterback already starting for them. THAT is the perfect time for a draft gamble. Not when you are a borderline playoff team without a QB, but a solid playoff team with one... 

And how did they acquire those starters that were in place?

 

Buffalo didn’t have a good starter on their roster. 
 

Green Bay certainly did. 
 

KC... how did they get Smith? They traded a second and a conditional pick for him. Absolutely tremendous trade for both parties. 
 

Is Flacco an established vet for Baltimore that allowed them to get Jackson? 
 

I don’t buy it.

 

You draft your QB, get 5 year rookie contracts, and surround them with talent. That is the recipe. Even in trading up you get the rookie contract. Not $30+M  against the cap. 
 

Is a 1/3 reasonable for Stafford? Probably. Is paying 3 years worth of firsts plus a few seconds a good deal for this franchise for Watson? No. I’d rather find our own version via the draft. That’s just me. Mileage may vary.

 

But it’s interesting how each of us can twist the situation to fit our own agendas, isn’t it?

[RWJ]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Man, Mayhew's love the guy.  Offer up our #19 and one of our 3rd rounders and call it a day/trade!  Extend him and make the length of the contract 5 years.  Then we have a 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 7 in this year's draft. 

[Est.1974]

With due respect to Alex Smith, I would say his body went in the opposite direction to stronger and stronger. 

[seantaylor=god]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

Ugh. I hate the fact that we may have to cut him, look like assholes, and he signs for a lot less somewhere else. 
 

I wish he would retire, but I get it that he wants to keep playing. I hope we don’t try and “do right by him” and keep overpaying him. 

[PartyPosse]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

We disagree on the the level of direct impact the QB has on a team scoring over a season and that of CB on defense. 

Well obviously, but my point is one man does not define an offense. I question even how potent Mahomes would be without Kelce or Hill.

 

One stat does stand out to me in terms of what DH had to work with. The team averaged 5.2 rushing first downs a game, good for 30th. By contrast, Baltimore averaged 10.6 a game. By contrast, they averaged 13.9 passing firsts a game, good for 7th. Even more glaring, 71% of their first downs came from passing, first by more than 4 percent. Of those rushing firsts (76 overall I believe), Watson had 31 of those. 5th most in QBs behind Lamar, Newton, Allen and Murray, Of these 5, only Baltimore had an above average run game. My point is, these team didn't give him a lot of help especially in the run game. 

Just now, seantaylor=god said:

Ugh. I hate the fact that we may have to cut him, look like assholes, and he signs for a lot less somewhere else. 
 

I wish he would retire, but I get it that he wants to keep playing. I hope we don’t try and “do right by him” and keep overpaying him. 

 

Someone call Jeff Gillooly

[wit33]

18 minutes ago, KDawg said:

And how did they acquire those starters that were in place?

 

Buffalo didn’t have a good starter on their roster. 
 

Green Bay certainly did. 
 

KC... how did they get Smith? They traded a second and a conditional pick for him. Absolutely tremendous trade for both parties. 
 

Is Flacco an established vet for Baltimore that allowed them to get Jackson? 
 

I don’t buy it.

 

You draft your QB, get 5 year rookie contracts, and surround them with talent. That is the recipe. Even in trading up you get the rookie contract. Not $30+M  against the cap. 
 

Is a 1/3 reasonable for Stafford? Probably. Is paying 3 years worth of firsts plus a few seconds a good deal for this franchise for Watson? No. I’d rather find our own version via the draft. That’s just me. Mileage may vary.

 

But it’s interesting how each of us can twist the situation to fit our own agendas, isn’t it?

The added variable to what QBs have reached the divisional or Championship games is what their salary cap hit ranked at the QB spot for that season. 
 

This year: 

Mahomes #1

Rodgers #5

Brady #13

Brees #14

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, wit33 said:

The added variable to what QBs have reached the divisional or Championship games is what their salary cap hit ranked at the QB spot for that season. 
 

This year: 

Mahomes #1

Rodgers #5

Brady #13

Brees #14

And the Chiefs haven’t hit the wall yet with salaries. Going to be interesting how that goes down. But they’ve built that roster so intelligently. They have key pieces that are paid really well and a bunch of guys they cycle with rookie contracts or low vet deals like it’s a college program.

[wit33]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

And the Chiefs haven’t hit the wall yet with salaries. Going to be interesting how that goes down. But they’ve built that roster so intelligently. They have key pieces that are paid really well and a bunch of guys they cycle with rookie contracts or low vet deals like it’s a college program.

I speculate there’s also a correlation with the final 8 or 4 teams each year to what the QB is paid that season.  

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, wit33 said:

I speculate there’s also a correlation with the final 8 or 4 teams each year to what the QB is paid that season.  

That would be interesting to look at

[Conn]

 

[wit33]

11 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Well obviously, but my point is one man does not define an offense. I question even how potent Mahomes would be without Kelce or Hill.

 

One stat does stand out to me in terms of what DH had to work with. The team averaged 5.2 rushing first downs a game, good for 30th. By contrast, Baltimore averaged 10.6 a game. By contrast, they averaged 13.9 passing firsts a game, good for 7th. Even more glaring, 71% of their first downs came from passing, first by more than 4 percent. Of those rushing firsts (76 overall I believe), Watson had 31 of those. 5th most in QBs behind Lamar, Newton, Allen and Murray, Of these 5, only Baltimore had an above average run game. My point is, these team didn't give him a lot of help especially in the run game. 

 

Someone call Jeff Gillooly

Does DH = Deshaun Watson?? Struggling to follow your point about the run game. 
 

Put me in the camp Mahomes would do just fine without either guy. They have extra cheetahs ready to run the 9 route lol. 

[wit33]

5 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

 

Doesn’t have a top 10 scoring team to date and that was with an elite defense early on. #11 and 14 in other full seasons as a starter. 
 

Purely me stat hunting, due to not watching enough of him. No feel for his game, but I’m beginning to value the PPG as a valuable stat to measure the QB (among other variables). 

[RWJ]

Deshaun Watson history.  Stafford is the much safer pick.  Check this out:  Deshaun Watson injury history and analysis (sportsinjurypredictor.com)

[TheShredder]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

You draft your QB, get 5 year rookie contracts, and surround them with talent. That is the recipe. Even in trading up you get the rookie contract. Not $30+M  against the cap. 
 

Is a 1/3 reasonable for Stafford? Probably. Is paying 3 years worth of firsts plus a few seconds a good deal for this franchise for Watson? No. I’d rather find our own version via the draft. That’s just me. Mileage may vary.

This is the ideal scenario.  The Problem is two fold.  How long is it going to take to know if you've drafted well?  Like Buffalo, do you have 2 yrs to develop a guy while the rest of your roster ages and big second contracts start coming.  Realistic to view the coveted DL as an annual big second contract cap eater...Allen's due anytime now, followed by Payne, then Sweat and the Monster Deal with Chase to finish it off.  Can you wait 2-3 yrs on a rookie in 2021 by trading up from #19?  If you're doing that, then you can't miss or you're screwed.  I think they're already screwed by the Haskins pick failure on drafting a rookie.  They're definitely making some plans up there.  I don't think you can afford to miss on a QB situation like a huge contract for the wrong guy (ie, Goff, Wentz, etc.).   This is why the thread is so popular.