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You think he put on 20-25 lbs for his pro day? lol

It’s a more admirable trait to just be able to say with grace that you were wrong or miscommunicated your point, FYI

Did you forget that as part of your argument you posted about Trey Lance vs Brock Purdy and then said that “the league is littered with high round draft busts and low round successes at QB”. That’s the entire reason I’m comparing hit rate in the top-5 to hit rate in the late rounds. Because that was your argument, which is what I’ve been trying to dismantle because it’s extremely incorrect, and the numbers on a large scale are clear. You are much much much more likely to hit in the top-5 than in the late rounds. If you’ve agreed with that the entire time then I don’t know why you’d waste time making anecdotal arguments about Lance vs Purdy and mention how many late round QB successes the league sees (the reality is it’s very very few). It’s a percentages game, no one would be crazy enough to say that any of these top guys are can’t miss prospects. So what are you arguing exactly, and why bring up late round QB anomalies.

How do you survive on the internet

It’s not really what you were saying, you explicitly said you thought there was probably a slight lean but you “don’t think there’s an overwhelming hit vs miss ratio”. There is though. Even if the hit rate on a top-5 QB is only 10-15% (that’s probably lowballing it, but being extremely conservative for the sake of argument) that is immensely higher than a mid-late round QB having like a .1-.5% chance to hit or whatever. And the numbers are that stark. But yes, we agree that overall the hit rate is always low. The difference in degrees is staggering though, is my point. It absolutely matters if you want a real shot at a franchise QB.

You were and are still wrong about this. He only blew off the live interview because he had a feeling we were not in fact going to hire him. He was not the favorite the media painted him to be and then bombed his zoom interview with us and with Seattle. He preferred to go back on the market in the future as someone who rejected all attempts to hire him, than risk being rejected by us in favor of Quinn and looking less desirable. Quinn was basically the favorite all along, which Keim essentially reported early in the process when he was trying to get fans to cool their jets on Ben Johnson. We just didn’t want to listen until it became obvious.

That’s still just anecdotal evidence. The empirical evidence is in fact overwhelming. We’ve talked about it many times over the years on this board, the research on it is extensive and conclusive. It’s not about having a high hit rate at the top of the draft—the hit rate is low across the board, objectively. But there are levels to it. The chance to hit on a high 1st rounder is astronomically higher than any QB in the rest of the draft hitting. You are exponentially more likely to hit with a high QB draft pick. There’s a reason you can instantly name all of the modern QB’s who break this rule: Russ, Kirk, Dak, Brady, seemingly Purdy now. If you’re being generous and want to go back like 25 years, you can say Brees as the 33rd pick. Late 1st gives you Rodgers, Lamar, MAYBE Love if we’re being generous. It’s extremely rare and more than half those guys are aging out of the league already, or already retired, or about to be. So it’s getting even less common as time goes by. In the mid-late rounds, there are dozens upon dozens of flameouts for every hit on even a backup QB—if you want a great franchise QB, the hit rate is infinitesimally small. It’s a much much higher chance in the top-10 picks. Less in the mid-late 1st. But incredibly more likely than hitting on a mid-late round franchise QB. The memorable busts are just all high picks and the nothing mid-late round picks just fade from memory every year. But when you zoom out, the numbers are clear.

I don’t expect you to care because I’m nobody, but you are moments from being blocked because you don’t know how a message board conversation works. Go back and read what you typed, that I quoted. Then read what I said. Then respond. Or keep just saying random stuff that has nothing to do with why I quoted you in the first place, and I’ll wish you well.

This has nothing to do with what you posted or what I responded to. Please keep up with your own posts—think this is the second time I’ve requested it from you

Because you’re projecting and think everyone is as biased as you seem to be. The majority of people who prefer Maye to Daniels would prefer Caleb to Maye. Whether it’s working or not, most people posting in favor of Maye imo are attempting to be objective.

My one train of thought after my long Maye vs Daniels post on the last page…I could see a situation where Maye making difficult things look possible (in a college situation analogous to our flawed Washington roster of recent years) is somehow registering with me personally more than Daniels making everything look pretty easy (in a good college situation), causing me to overweight certain things I’ve seen from Maye and underweight certain things I’ve seen from Daniels. (To clarify I don’t think it’s that simple, Daniels has his noticeable flaws as well, but as an easy way to conceptualize what I’m saying).

No…you install the offense that is the best fit for the best prospect you grade out “period”. You don’t make a pick based on an OC or his system at all, across the entire league there’s ONE Offensive Coordinator who’s been in place for more than two years. One.

That is called anecdotal evidence. I’m talking about empirical evidence over an extremely large sample size. One example of something never created a fallacy. Otherwise I could quote you here and say “there’s a fallacy in your argument and it’s named Josh Allen the 7th overall pick for the Bills in 2018”, or any other name I desired. See how silly that reads? Because it means nothing. I don’t need to care about Trey Lance or Washington’s specific QB troubles or any other singular data point, because I can zoom out and look at large pools of candidates and see that I’m right about where the highest hit rate is, by far. And even that’s still a low chance, to your point. But it’s statistically significant.

I started the process with this as an assumption, but knew I needed more information. I’m ending the process in the same place despite over a month actively trying to convince myself otherwise. How can this not be the guy? [the first throw is gimmicky but athletic, the rest are much more impressive] Success in adversity despite inconsistent mechanics. Lots and lots of tape making unreal throws through a special creativity trait after suffering pressure. It just translates. Don’t laugh but I see the glimpses of *whispers* Mahomes that people say they see in Caleb (and of course I see it there as well). I’ve watched a ton of Daniels by now. I just don’t see it. And I want to very very badly because I’m prepared for him to be the pick. Even just watching his JBomb highlight package again earlier tonight, going for more of a hype viewing than anything bc of the noise around him, I counted like 3 corner endzone TD passes that are supposedly a strength of his—and they’re INT’s in the NFL if the DB has a clue where he is. It’s a tiny example but the runs scare me rather than ignite me, and the throws just don’t bring me joy. Very few difficult throws (now I’m talking about his random cut-ups, not his highlights) compared to an average Maye game. I just struggle to see the evidence of “NFL polish” that everyone takes for granted. I don’t want to hear about NFL-level processing because 90% of people who say that have no clue what they’re looking at or what he’s being asked to read and why he made the decisions he did. Most people are just repeating it because someone else said it—it’s one of the hardest traits to actually identify in a prolific college passer, even for NFL evaluators. We don’t have a clue about it. You see his helmet swivel throughout his drop in the pocket from the All-22 angle, then throw it over the top to a stud WR and mark down on your little excel sheet that he’s going through his progressions. You likely have no idea and neither do I lol. I fully admit that what we all see on “tape” (very few people here are actually trained on how to break down tape. Most media bloggers who claim to do it aren’t either) is in the eye of the beholder. My eye doesn’t see what apparently the entire NFL world allegedly does with Daniels—but I see it easily when I watch Maye. It pops. Whole thing makes me feel crazy, especially since his personality seems to line up with what we value as well (as a tie-breaker, if needed—not saying that should be the #1 or even #10 criteria). None of this even gets into the fact that he’ll be 24 late this season, or that he’s a 5th year senior, or that he’s built thin. I’m not going there. If he’s truly a stud none of that will matter anyway—so I’m ignoring all of that and JUST talking about watching him play football this year, at his peak, vs watching Maye play football. Edit to react to RWJ’s post below: I would certainly still be having this conversation if Daniels weighed 225 and Maye weighed 210. I’m not going to pretend I’m being reasonable and my only fear is his slight build. My fear is his game compared to Maye. Pure football, nothing incendiary about his size.

lol…so everyone on earth apparently hears that the vast majority of coaches, scouts, and GM’s think Daniels should go at #2, no question. McShay even says not a single person he talked to preferred Maye. But this guy says that the trade offers for 3 go up substantially if Maye is there compared to Daniels. Umm something doesn’t track there.