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Thinking Skins

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Everything posted by Thinking Skins

  1. So I sent the above image to my dad and talked to him about it and he was a bit confused. Each piece is represented by a single letter. I'm trying to see which pieces are attacking other pieces and the free squares (where I may want to move). So here's what the letters mean. K - white king Q - white queen R - white rook N - white knight B - white bishop P - white pawn k - black king q - black queen r - black rook n - black knight b - black bishop p - black pawn Like I said in the post above, these are also color coded so the black side has its threats blue and the white side has its threats red. Now about letters appearing together. That just means that multiple pieces are attacking the same square. So the red RKN in cell h4 means that the white rook, king and knight are all attacking it.
  2. So I wrote this program. To help me with my matches, but then thought it would be cheating so I'm not using it. But I think it's a good way of thinking. What I try to do is just really analyze the board before making a move. And what I mean by that is taking account is each piece on the board and each each square and which pieces have power over which squares. In the attached image, black had the blue attacking color and white has the red attacking color. I think that along with algebraic notation I'm going to practice doing this.
  3. I wish I could show you some of my recent games. I'll get bad "grades" from community I guess from just stuff of common scenarios of boards, but it's like what they recommend doesn't take my opponent into consideration at all. I'm one game, I had a knight about to do a fork on my rook and queen and I'm trying to stop it and so I move my bishop to f3 and then capture it with my knight. But (up till I got the knight) they acted like I was a lunatic. But then suddenly my score shot up. But as far as winning games, man I missed some mate in one cause I just didn't see them. I was too scared of losing. But sometimes I have like a knight and a bishop that can move to the same square and I'm saying which one should make the move? And I think one time I was playing a game where I made a capture with a pawn that I could have made with a rook that later I wish I had made.
  4. So I've settled that I'm at about an 800 rating. I listen to chess podcasts and people who started chess and had a 1500 rating from the start and settled at 2100 or so. Thats not me. I got beat by by 4 year old last night. I mean. I taught him everything he knows, so I'm proud, but I'm also kinda shamed. I shoulds seen the mate with the rook and bishop setup coming. I thought it was just a queen. Anyway. I can play a bunch of games against the computer at a level of about 800- 1000 and win some lose some. That's about where I want to be. The main problem I have with the phone / computer play is that when I'm analyzing moves, they think I want to do the move. I don't want to press the knight. I just want to look at the knight. I'm analyzing the possibilities because there are about 5 possible moves each turn and three are good and 2 are dumb. So that's my main problem. But I have been getting my game going on chess.com regularly again. I think I like The Collie & London opening for its beauty and simplicity. look it up.
  5. So I started listening to chess songs again this morning with my kids to wake them up. Surprisingly, I found some that were very instructive. I need to get the lyrics because (I think) they were telling me that my method of playing is kinda naïve.
  6. I wish I could say the same. My son (the older) beat me, I think 3 times now. The last one was kinda tricky because I had him on the run and had a mate in like 3 moves but as I was setting up my queen, I took one move to not put him in check and he used that one move to move his queen and put it next to my king and it was mate. I've taught him 2 checkmates so far. the 2 rooks (which can be done with a rook and a queen or 2 queens also) and a queen next to the king in a protected square. I've warned that the second is only powerful if the king is in a corner or the side though, and he saw the opportunity and took it. But I feel like people get this false impression of me. Like they think that because I'm a mathematician I'm going to be a chessmaster. I wish it was that easy. I'm still pretty much a beginner Maybe. Let me finish some meetings at work first.
  7. This reminds me of my 4 year old. He's not too great at checkmate stuff but he will quickly try to trick me into a trade of queens. His goal when playing chess is always to get king vs king (stalemate). "you didn't beat me".
  8. I used to play a lot as a kid and was pretty good, won some citywide competitions. but stopped after the school stopped having chess clubs. I never forgot the rules and things, but just never really picked it up again. When I had my kids, I can remember trying to teach them but at first they couldn't sit still long enough to play a game. They were listening though because a year later they wanted to play a game. They lost, but they did remember the rules. But that did reignite the fire to play once again. So in between playing them almost daily after school and their chess clubs now, I find myself listening to podcasts and analyzing my games to see where my mistakes in my games are (even the games I've won). I don't always agree with the analysis though, but I do realize that I'm winning some of these games because the computer is making some real blunders (I think they had a mate in 2 but they didn't take it-maybe I'm wrong on that). So I was just wondering about the chess community here on ES, and if there is one, maybe we could start sharing some tips / questions with one another about games ?
  9. I think the draft did well for the snaps they played. Forbes got torched, but then the entire secondary did, so was that on Forbes? Later in the season (after the Patriots) he was getting breakups and playing with confidence. Quan got two pics off tipped balls. Sure they were tipped, but he held on. Strom - he was the #1 center on many boards and he barely took a snap last year none at center. And when he played he played well. I think he is a hit. Hopefully he's in the plans to stay this year. Daniels? maybe a miss but he could be a guard as many projected him in scouting profiles, or maybe they could do something with him KJ Henry - He looked good. He had a sack taken away on a BS call. Clearly has some talent. Chris R. Has some talent and some running game, but man we lost that second giants game partially because of those red zone fumbles. but he scored those TDs late in the season before getting hurt. clearly has a positive future. Jones - Similar to Henry but I cant remember the highlight reel hits
  10. Again, this is a slept on move that I called from the beginning. People are going by that agents poll but these guys have relationships with one another. And the fact that this is Peters's first job as a GM, I think he wants to make sure this doesn't go wrong. As long as Marty doesn't get in the way he'll keep as many voices around as possible right now. Things might thin out later as he gets more of a feel for things but I knew that there wouldn't be immediate firings. I don't expect that he needs a "big brother" type of thing but if Marty is getting paid to be in a semi-retired mentoring role where he's doing a bit of scouting (which is his hobby anyway) and answering questions that Peters may have about things if Peters should want to come to him, then I'd assume Marty is available. I think that the Martin thing is a whole different aspect. I think it is a three headed monster beteeen Lance and Adam and Marty. I don't know where anybody's specialty is, but I do know that Martin knows both of these guys and so you can say that Martin was helpful in building both the SF and the Detroit franchises. I know I have heard that SF designed metrics for pass rushers to get off the ball and thats how they draft them. I wonder if Detroit has designed a metric for running backs because thats what they seem to specialize in (for years), or WRs (a number of good to great WRs). They had good offensive lines in both places, so maybe they had really good metrics for that.
  11. The thing that gets me about the (offensive) hires is that they seem to go in the face of the physical approach that he spoke about at the press conference. Well, apart from the Bobby Johnson hire. If we're going to be doing a gimmacy new age run and shoot offense, its the opposite of physical. Maybe Billy Johnson or the new guy will make it more physical, but even in NY their run game wasn't physical it was all about speed. So if we are going to be built like SF or Baltimore, I'm not seeing it. Maybe the offense will be similar to SF, but I'm not quite seeing it. The other thing I'm hearing is that KK likes his linemen to be more athletic. Not small, but athletic. That did remind me of Shanahan though where he would wait til the lower rounds to draft linemen because he knew the kinds of linemen he wanted and they were zone blockers. Trent could block anywhere but others were guys who were undersized. If we go for undersized guys then we are not going for physical guys and will get overpowered by the bigger teams.
  12. Let me adjust that post earlier with this one. These are still third down numbers, just trying to get things more readable, and that Jayden Daniels Int number wasn't right. It was 3 ints, not 4. And this is some 3rd down stuff from 2022.
  13. Ok, so here's some info from my analytic and basically it is starting to back up some of the hype behind Caleb. 3rd down is supposed to be the money down so I wanted to focus on it. 2023.Caleb Williams TDS - 10 Yards - 1104 Ints - 4 comp% - 0.69 YPA - 9.5 sack % -8.6 int% - 0.009 AYPA - 9.56 2023.Drake Maye TDS - 9 yards - 1185 ints - 6 comp% - 0.60 YPA - 9.4 sack - 7.1 int% -2.4 AYPA - 9.9 2023.Jayden Daniels TDS - 9 yards - 1188 ints - 4 comp% - 0.70 YPA - 12 sack% - 9.1 int% - 3.03 AYPA - 14.35
  14. So here are some more updates. I'm still working on my analytics. The clustering (grouping) stuff may not be as exciting because that will just start arguments. its honestly just more mathematical than I thought it would be. But it is still fun. That said, I have been able to compute stuff like - completions - attempts - completion percentage - yards per attempt - yards per completion - adjusted yards per attempt - Passing TDs - Passing Yards - Interceptions - Fumbles - n yard passes where n is a multiple of 10 - sack % - int % - TDs in each game - interceptions in each game - n yard rushes where n is a multiple of 10 - number of times sacks - yards lost due to sacks - average yards per sack - 3rd down completions - 3rd down attempts - 3rd down completion % - 3rd down TDs - 3rd down yards - 3rd down interceptions So while the actual clustering metric is not quite as strong as I want it to be, I like these features because I can just look at these college QBs from an angle I cold not look at them before.
  15. If anything, thats my problem with Sam. He should have been yelling at EB during those games. Instead, as you said, he was a team player. And never spoke his mind. He's gotta get in somebody's face sometimes.
  16. I mean you and Skins / Commanders nation may not agree but Sam was done dirty. And Sam may feel that way. Thrown out there with no OL and not allowed to run the ball, with a first time coordinator who was so stuck in his ways that he wouldn't listen to players who would tell him what would work. Yeah I think Sam might be a bit salty.
  17. Honestly this is where I am. I am taking myself into Maye more and more. He's a not hate prospect, but I just don't love him. I'm writing analytics to try to fall in love with him. But I do wonder about the Howell Maye relationship. Having your best friend take your job may put a strain on the friendship.
  18. Here's an updated version of my post on twitter based on more QBs, in particular I wanted to see how Spencer Rattler did, because I was hearing his name coming up a lot as somebody who looked good before getting injured. It may not be readable any more because of the number of people I included.
  19. Ok. Here's the thing. I finished my QB model that I've been working on for about a month. It compares QBs based on their college careers. Instead of looking at their overall careers I decided to look at years independently. So 2023 Caleb Williams and 2022 Caleb Williams would be seen by the model as different QBs even though you and I know that they are the same person. The goal of the model was to see if I could answer questions like does a certain QB play like another QB. "Does Drake Maye play like Justin Herbert or Josh Allen or Daniel Jones?" To do this I acquired a number of statistics from their college careers. Some of these are things that we all know like the passing yards, passing tds, and interceptions. Then I calculated things like sacks fumbles passes within a certain range (from 10 yards to 90 yards) and the same for runs. Games with multiple interceptions, and tds. So with that introduction, here are some results. Here is one interesting cluster of QBs 2023 Caleb Williams, 2023 Drake Maye, 2023 Jayden Daniels, 2023 Bo Nix, 2022 Bryce Young, 2021 Will Levis, 2021 Desmond Ridder, 2021 Matt Corral, 2021 Sam Howell, 2021 Brock Purdy, 2018 Trevor Lawrence, 2018 Kellen Mond, 2018 Joe Burrow, 2018 Justin Herbert, 2016 Daniel Jones, 2016 Josh Allen, 2016 DeShone Kizer, 2015 DeShone Kizer, 2014 Paxton Lynch I'm not saying that these are all similar QBs, just that its an interesting result. This is some preliminary stuff, but and in the next version I may add things like ypa, aypa, completion percentage, and possibly an intended target percentage as that was what soured me on Mac Jones.
  20. First, why would it be settling? and why embarrassing? Peters knows him and has worked with him and likely knows him beyond a 6 hour interview. I was talking to Marshall on Twitter this morning and it was about how BS the interview process is. I don't care how detailed it is. Some people fumble in it. Some people look great in it. But it is not the real job. It is an interview for the job. These guys have been doing jobs for years and they deserve to be judges based on that, not based on a 6 hour interview. That interview should be only to seal the deal or really to confirm some things or understand some uncertainties. I like all the guys that they've interviewed but obviously they don't, so lets go and reset the board. Frank Smith is another name I like but he isn't as close to Peters or Shen.
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