Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[DefinitelyMaybe]

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Meh...there's really only one successful running QB in the NFL. The other top guys (Mahomes, Allen, Watson, Wilson, even Rodgers to an extent) CAN run, but they more often are mobile and use their athleticism to extend and make plays. I'm not really that interested in a "running QB" but I definitely want one who's athletic and can make things happen with that aspect of his game.

I mean kinda getting technical on me here, I clearly mean a QB that can get out of the pocket and move forwards as we’ve seen it works very effectively in our system 

[bakedtater1]

If john clayton in seattle is predicting stafford to Washington than ya have to think it's a possibility...any fa wr sees stafford as the qb with this defense will wanna jump on board..bad ass lb in fa and get ertz some how and look out folks.

[DWinzit]

1 minute ago, mhd24 said:

Say the Watson trade is #3+#18+Tua and Houston doesn't like Tua (they prefer Fields or Wilson at #3).  Would you trade #19 for Tua assuming Stafford goes to Indy?

Do you mean Houston takes Tua then later decides they do not like him? I so that would mean 2 teams didn't like him and it may be due to his hip. so no

I only ask only because they wouldn't agree to a trade with him if they already didn't like him

[Jericho]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

This is not to say that the low rounders are superstars but I think its worth considering the idea of (consider 2011) when Tennessee took Jake Locker at number 8. What if they had taken Watt at number 8 and then somebody like Dalton/Kaep/Tyrod later in the draft? Thats what I'm always wondering about with these first round QBs because the likelihood of getting a superstar is so low and QB is so hard to predict that if you have a guy that can solidify a position on your team as an almost sure fire pick and compare that with a QB. 

 

And like you say, its so popular to say that every year is the 1983 draft but they're not living up to it and thats why the 1983 draft is so special. Its very difficult to find the superstar QB. Its much more common to find a respectable starter and those are just as likely to come from the non first rounders as the first rounders. 

 

It's a interesting exercise in game theory. Few QBs outside the first round ever develop into bona fide starters. For every Garrard or Schaub, there's probably a dozen draft picks that did nothing of note. We can take a look around the league and see most starters are former first rounders. But even a large chunk of the first round "hits" are pretty mediocre too. Getting a Joe Flacco from a mid first round pick is actually a pretty good outcome. Since we recognize most QBs bust, get a bona fide starter with a mid first rounder is a rarity. But then, is one really happy with a Joe Flacco? There are worse alternatives, but there seem to be far better ones too. It's the conundrum teams like the Raiders (Carr), 49ers (Garoppolo), and Rams (Goff) are currently going through. They have mediocre guys, but want something better. And if getting a David Carr or Jared Goff is a good outcome from a top pick, maybe not spending so much on QBs and trying to find a mediocre alternative for less (either via trade, free agency, or a lower round pick) is the way to go. 

 

Except...when you really hit the right one it's all worth it. Pulling a Mahomes at pick 10 is invaluable. It's like lottery tickets. You'll never win if you don't play, but if you do play you'll like just end up losing more. So...what is the right choice?

[mhd24]

2 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Do you mean Houston takes Tua then later decides they do not like him? I so that would mean 2 teams didn't like him and it may be due to his hip. so no

I only ask only because they wouldn't agree to a trade with him if they already didn't like him

 

 

Nah, in essence it would be a 3-way trade:

 

Houston gets #3+#18+#19

Miami gets Watson

We get Tua

[Darrell Green Fan]

Watson I don't see as possible. The Jets could offer much higher picks and a QB, so can Miami.  Those are just 2 of the 18 teams with higher picks than our team has.  I think the price would have to be absolutely crippling, as @KDawgpointed out in Houston showed that he can't win by himself, when he did get help he didn't win much.  

 

That's why I prefer Stafford.  He is mobile in the pocket, makes a ton of off script plays, he will be much less expensive and he's really really good. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Darrell Green Fan

[DWinzit]

Just now, mhd24 said:

 

 

Nah, in essence it would be a 3-way trade:

 

Houston gets #3+#18+#19

Miami gets Watson

We get Tua

Ah, very interesting

Boy would I want a serious medical exam on that hip before looking at him.

Funny how most of the board would have jumped for him at 19 last year, me included

[mistertim]

I see Houston really wanting a trade from a team with a top 5 pick so they can draft their QB of the future. So that would be Jax, Jets, Miami, ATL, Cincy. Cincy has their QB so that's 4 teams. 

 

Then again, if teams knew that they only wanted to trade with top 5 in draft position, that would greatly weaken Houston's position to demand a ton of picks.

 

I see pretty much no chance we'd be in the running at 19 unless we literally gave up 4 1sts.

[TheGoodBits]

3 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

Watson I don't see as possible. The Jets could much higher picks and a QB, so can Miami.  Those are just 2 of the 18 teams with higher picks than our team has.  I think the price would have to be absolutely crippling, as @KDawgpointed out in Houston showed that he can't win by himself, when he did get help he didn't win much.  

 

That's why I prefer Stafford.  He is mobile in the pocket, makes a ton of off script plays, he will be much less expensive and he's really really good. 

We might be able to offer a package that matches Miami or NYJ. We’d just really hate it if we did. 
 

Chase Young is the only player on our team that has enough value to match a top 3 pick. 

[mistertim]

3 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Ah, very interesting

Boy would I want a serious medical exam on that hip before looking at him.

Funny how most of the board would have jumped for him at 19 last year, me included

 

I wasn't a fan of taking Tua last year and I still am not. He's just way too demonstrably fragile for me. Tons of talent, but simply can't stay healthy and has been that way for years.

[Skinsinparadise]

If their GM is anything like Bruce Allen, they'd play out the starring context versus caring about max trade value.  Granted in Watson's case, his trade value will unlikely to decrease over time.  But you figure the time is now if they want the Jets/Miami draft picks. 

 

 

 

20 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Say the Watson trade is #3+#18+Tua and Houston doesn't like Tua (they prefer Fields or Wilson at #3).  Would you trade #19 for Tua assuming Stafford goes to Indy?

 

I wouldn't.  Loved him at Alabama.  But if I am going to show concern about Heinicke's durability, I'd need to be consistent with Tua who seems very fragile.  He was off to a meh start in Miami but I'll give him slack on that since it was just the beginning. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

5 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I wasn't a fan of taking Tua last year and I still am not. He's just way too demonstrably fragile for me. Tons of talent, but simply can't stay healthy and has been that way for years.

I cannot argue with that.

He did show toughness getting back to playing. Having a prior hip injury myself, I didn't see him being able to do that.

Still if he fell to 19 I would have taken him. He has so many good qualities but yes must be on the field. I hated the Haskins selection the year prior and would have been much happier with Tua than him.

[Tress Is The Way]

What about Jared Goff is the Rams decide to part ways with him? I'd take a flyer. Personally I think he got the raw end of the stick in LA and needs a change of scenery.

Edited January 28, 2021 by ZarG3

[Est.1974]

I mean, if we can’t upgrade our QB situation this offseason with all of this going on....
 

As much as I liked the Alex Smith story, the catalyst needs to be his retirement or release. If we got news of that, I think we’ll have a new QB coming in.

[KDawg]

16 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

I disagree here - not that I WANT to see them use 2 1sts. But if he is the guy, get him. You can round out the team other ways. One 1st from next year does not change things that much. Now if you trade that and 4 other picks, OK. But one additional 1st rd pick gets you a guy like Stafford? Do it and live with the results. 

 

 

He'd be THE guy if we drafted him. No doubt. He'd be the guy if we could get him reasonably. I don't think he's the guy with a new contract that likely gives a good cap hit and the assets. So how we (and they) define "the guy" matters here. But since we have no way of knowing what they think we can only discuss what we think. I don't think he is the guy if we have to give up that kind of capital.

 

If we trade 2 firsts and do well (NFC Title game? Hell, good showing in the divisional round) I'll be among the happiest here. I'll admit I was wrong and be giddy to do so.

 

If we trade 2 firsts, struggle, and give up a top 10ish pick? Nightmare. We could struggle without Stafford.

 

Of course there's also an in between in that scenario where we don't do great but look good and our holes look less than most of us believe. That's a middle ground scenario I'm willing to accept.

 

 

Quote

You will have explain this to me. I respect your opinion but here is what he has done so far.  Just not seeing what you are saying. 

2017 - Went 3-3 for a 4-12 team before getting injured.

2018 - Full time starter and he went 10-6

2019 - Full time starter and went 11-6

2020 - Bill Obrien shredded the team so they went 4-12 but he had a very good season even though they got rid of Hopkins!  Career higs in yds, Average Yards per attempt, and Yds/catch. Picks went up a little but the D ewas just not good. 

 

In the POS 2018 -= his very first he struggled. But in 2019 he played very well both games. They did not lose because of him that I can remember. 

 

To me Bill O'brien is a nutcase and wasted Watson. 

 

Here are the numbers: 

 

 

 

I'm so glad you took the bait here. I apologize for that but I needed someone with some wherewithal to come in and post about Watson's statistics.

 

His numbers ARE the problem. I'm sure you're staring at your screen confused, but whether you agree or not I think I can get you to see my point.

 

Watson has played like an absolute stud. He has done absolutely everything that you want a franchise quarterback to do and 32 out of 32 teams would be lucky to have him as their guy. He is everything as advertised as an individual quarterback. That's the problem.

 

He has had overall better rosters in Houston (other than this year) than we have and they haven't gotten over the hump. Now, I don't think their rosters have been stellar as far as league wide... But better than here.

 

That proves to me that the roster as a whole means more than just a quarterback.

 

Yes, quarterback matters. Do I think we win the Super Bowl with Heinicke? No. I like Heinicke. I think he could be more than many think he could be. But the bottom line is that he isn't likely a Lombardi guy. I DO think you can win a Super Bowl with Deshaun Watson...

 

As long as the roster shakes out in a positive way.

 

So Watson the player? Yes. Big time yes. Absolutely yes.

 

Watson the value after giving up what is likely to be three firsts PLUS some AND large cap hits? No. I think the assets given up to get him take this team OUT of the Super Bowl window. Though I do think it gives us a chance in division every year. 

 

So to me it's not about Watson as a player. I think he's as good as advertised. And I'd sure have fun watching him play in burgundy in gold. But inside I would constantly be worried about, "Did we give up too much to take advantage of this beast?" 

 

Quote

Fair questions. But you can only play who is in front of you. Does NY beat us with Alex both games? He did not play the 1st gm we lost by 1pt and the second he came in after Kyle gets injured and almost brings us back despite having 3 picks. How abotu the Panthers? So that really can go both ways. 

 

For those following along, this was in response to me asking if we beat Dallas 2x/Philly at the end if Dallas has Dak and the line together and they beat us twice.

 

It absolutely goes both ways. But that's kind of the point. But if Dallas beats us twice and we beat the Giants at least once and we beat the Panthers... The Cowboys probably win the NFC East. And we're 7-9 with a bad draft pick and not in the playoffs. Dallas wins the division handily... Beating the Giants week 17 as well.

 

So yes, it is all hypotheticals. And we can do those all day. But realistically I still think the Cowboys... if they bring Dak back... have the best overall roster in the division.

 

Could that change with some trades, FA and draft? Yes. But can we make moves to support Watson if we give all that up? That's the question. 

 

Quote

Fair enough I jsut disagree. Again, I think if you see QB that is a difference maker on your team you go get him. You have to. But you have to be convinced he is your guy. He is the one that makes a difference. 

 

Either way it will be interesting to see what they do. 

 

We agree here.

[KillBill26]

11 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Ah, very interesting

Boy would I want a serious medical exam on that hip before looking at him.

Funny how most of the board would have jumped for him at 19 last year, me included

Right, his stock has dipped quite a bit.  Not only is there the hip, but supposedly dolphins players didn't have much faith in tua during their playoff push.  That could be simply that they felt the veteran fitz gave them the best chance of winning right now, which is understandable, or is it deeper than that and tua isn't everything he was expected to be as an nfl qb.  I didn't follow his rookie season close enough to know tbh.

[mistertim]

3 minutes ago, ZarG3 said:

What about Jared Goff is the Rams decide to part ways with him? I'd take a flyer

 

He'd be a potential fallback option for me but I'm sort of "meh" on him in general. IMO he's fool's gold and his 2 really good seasons were closer to the exception...he's gone right back to mediocrity now.

 

I guess it would depend on what they wanted for him in trade. I might be persuaded to do a 2nd because he's still pretty young. But I'm guessing the Rams would be looking for a 1st at the outset...but with a potential trade market that could include Watson, Stafford, Carr, Jimmy G, his value is going to be watered down so if we could get him on the cheap I might be interested. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

17 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

Right, his stock has dipped quite a bit.  Not only is there the hip, but supposedly dolphins players didn't have much faith in tua during their playoff push.  That could be simply that they felt the veteran fitz gave them the best chance of winning right now, which is understandable, or is it deeper than that and tua isn't everything he was expected to be as an nfl qb.  I didn't follow his rookie season close enough to know tbh.

 

I followed Tua as best I could from here, meaning a lot of Red Zone. I gotta say especially near the end of the season he looked underwhelming to say the least.  Just didn't look like an NFL QB.  But it was also his first year.

[kingdaddy]

10 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

I followed Tua as best I could from here, meaning a lot of Red Zone. I gotta say especially near the end of the season he looked underwhelming to say the least.  Just didn't look like an NFL QB.  But it was also his first year.

Out of Burrow, Herbert, Hurts and Tua I think Tua showed me the least as a rookie QB. I'd roll with Heinicke over Tua....

[skinny21]

@KDawg  Very good post about Watson.  I’m in agreement.  There’s one thing that gives me pause though.  Basically, there’s a small part of me that thinks maybe we just suck it up, take the risk (in terms of greatly limiting our resources) and hope we catch lightning in a bottle with the rest of the roster (and coaching/culture).  

I have to wonder at the odds of this method working out, versus putting our resources into the rest of the roster and then hoping we catch a big break in finding a rookie franchise qb (or a trade/FA option cheaper than Watson).  And one interesting factor is the idea of drafting our guy, and then possibly ‘wasting’ the 2-4 years waiting to see if they pan out.

 

[86 Snyder]

@KDawg I dont think you're factoring in just how badly coached the Texans were the last few years.  With a competant roster, he won games for them and kept them among the contenders, but Obrien was never going to coach his way to the Super Bowl.  Without a comoetant roster, all he could was keep them in games and put up numbers.

 

The coaching staff here isnt perfect by any meams, but its light years more competent than what DeShaun has been dealing with.  

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, skinny21 said:

@KDawg  Very good post about Watson.  I’m in agreement.  There’s one thing that gives me pause though.  Basically, there’s a small part of me that thinks maybe we just suck it up, take the risk (in terms of greatly limiting our resources) and hope we catch lightning in a bottle with the rest of the roster (and coaching/culture).  

I have to wonder at the odds of this method working out, versus putting our resources into the rest of the roster and then hoping we catch a big break in finding a rookie franchise qb (or a trade/FA option cheaper than Watson).  And one interesting factor is the idea of drafting our guy, and then possibly ‘wasting’ the 2-4 years waiting to see if they pan out.

 

I think both ways are a risk. One way is putting all that risk into one player. The other is spreading the risk out. Which is a better risk? If some say Watson, I don’t agree, but I totally understand the mindset.

Just now, 86 Snyder said:

@KDawg I dont think you're factoring in just how badly coached the Texans were the last few years.  With a competant roster, he won games for them and kept them among the contenders, but Obrien was never going to coach his way to the Super Bowl.  Without a comoetant roster, all he could was keep them in games and put up numbers.

 

The coaching staff here isnt perfect by any meams, but its light years more competent than what DeShaun has been dealing with.  

But we won’t have the roster pieces. So no, I’m not underestimating how badly they were coached. And honestly I think he’s a good offensive coach and meh HC and horrible GM

 

O’Brien was okay until he went looney towards the end. Nothing great but okay as GM. 
 

Coaching plays a role. So does surrounding talent.

[DWinzit]

43 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

Right, his stock has dipped quite a bit.  Not only is there the hip, but supposedly dolphins players didn't have much faith in tua during their playoff push.  That could be simply that they felt the veteran fitz gave them the best chance of winning right now, which is understandable, or is it deeper than that and tua isn't everything he was expected to be as an nfl qb.  I didn't follow his rookie season close enough to know tbh.

I didn't watch a lot of his play this year either. I do know wherever Fitz goes, he takes over the locker room, they love him. Sometimes that has made it hard on the young QB to get to take his time and learn on the field. Fitz is always in the midst of QB controversies. He is great leader who is streaky on the field. When he is hot, he is hot.

[goskins10]

30 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

He'd be THE guy if we drafted him. No doubt. He'd be the guy if we could get him reasonably. I don't think he's the guy with a new contract that likely gives a good cap hit and the assets. So how we (and they) define "the guy" matters here. But since we have no way of knowing what they think we can only discuss what we think. I don't think he is the guy if we have to give up that kind of capital.

 

If we trade 2 firsts and do well (NFC Title game? Hell, good showing in the divisional round) I'll be among the happiest here. I'll admit I was wrong and be giddy to do so.

 

If we trade 2 firsts, struggle, and give up a top 10ish pick? Nightmare. We could struggle without Stafford.

 

Of course there's also an in between in that scenario where we don't do great but look good and our holes look less than most of us believe. That's a middle ground scenario I'm willing to accept.

 

 

 

I'm so glad you took the bait here. I apologize for that but I needed someone with some wherewithal to come in and post about Watson's statistics.

 

His numbers ARE the problem. I'm sure you're staring at your screen confused, but whether you agree or not I think I can get you to see my point.

 

Watson has played like an absolute stud. He has done absolutely everything that you want a franchise quarterback to do and 32 out of 32 teams would be lucky to have him as their guy. He is everything as advertised as an individual quarterback. That's the problem.

 

He has had overall better rosters in Houston (other than this year) than we have and they haven't gotten over the hump. Now, I don't think their rosters have been stellar as far as league wide... But better than here.

 

Not sure I agree he had that great a rosters while in Houston. Yes, they had a few studs in some key positions, but top to bottom not sure if I agree. But more specifically, if he did everything he could to win games but didn't, at what point do you look at the D. I did just now. People assume it was good - well JJ Watt, enough said. Not so fast maestro! (Always wanted to say that.. 🙂 )   Their D in 2018 was not even average and they were 10-6. In 2019 they were one of the worst Ds in the NFL and were 11-5. Do you think our D is in that category? I do not. So not sure outside playing ILB or DB there is anything more Deshaun could have done. Not to mention O'Brien playing Monopoly man with these ridiculous trades. 

 

So quite honestly I disagree more now than before. In your own words he did all he could from an offensive standpoint. But there are two, well really 3 sides to the team. So stud on off? Sure, but he delivered. But D was atrocious under O'brian, especially 2019 and 2020 but even 2018 it was not even average. 

 

I do agree we cannot just throw Watson on this team and call it a day and expect to get to a SB, or hell even repeat as Div winners. But you can't do that with any QB. We do need more tools. But he is a huge piece and as young as he is, they can still mold him and develop around him. If you are just looking at W/Ls or playoff wins that to me can be one of the worst metrics for a QB, or any single position. And BTW he played very well the two 2019 PO games, one of which they won. It takes a team sure. But QB is the most important. If you don't have that right, it really doesn't matter who else you have. 

 

30 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

That proves to me that the roster as a whole means more than just a quarterback.

 

Not denying this., But let's not say that becasue he did not single handedly win the SB with one of the worst Ds in football he is a not the right guy. Now, if the D was great and he had studs on Off and come up short, Ok i wam with you. But that's not what happened. He did his job and then some. The rest is on the coaches and subsequently the defense. 

 

30 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Yes, quarterback matters. Do I think we win the Super Bowl with Heinicke? No. I like Heinicke. I think he could be more than many think he could be. But the bottom line is that he isn't likely a Lombardi guy. I DO think you can win a Super Bowl with Deshaun Watson...

 

As long as the roster shakes out in a positive way.

 

So Watson the player? Yes. Big time yes. Absolutely yes.

 

Watson the value after giving up what is likely to be three firsts PLUS some AND large cap hits? No. I think the assets given up to get him take this team OUT of the Super Bowl window. Though I do think it gives us a chance in division every year. 

 

So to me it's not about Watson as a player. I think he's as good as advertised. And I'd sure have fun watching him play in burgundy in gold. But inside I would constantly be worried about, "Did we give up too much to take advantage of this beast?" 

 

This will happen no matter who we get or how much we give for them or where we draft them - 🙂  It's the nature of us fans. It's always too much, not enough, too high, too low, etc etc. I am honestly OK with taking that chance. There are zero guarantees. We could spend the moon for Watson and he can't even beat out Tayler or Allen. But he performance so far suggests he is the real deal. And if you are going to spend resources, I would much rather take my chances with someone who has shown they can be good vs someone who has not. 

 

 

30 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

For those following along, this was in response to me asking if we beat Dallas 2x/Philly at the end if Dallas has Dak and the line together and they beat us twice.

 

It absolutely goes both ways. But that's kind of the point. But if Dallas beats us twice and we beat the Giants at least once and we beat the Panthers... The Cowboys probably win the NFC East. And we're 7-9 with a bad draft pick and not in the playoffs. Dallas wins the division handily... Beating the Giants week 17 as well.

 

So yes, it is all hypotheticals. And we can do those all day. But realistically I still think the Cowboys... if they bring Dak back... have the best overall roster in the division.

 

Could that change with some trades, FA and draft? Yes. But can we make moves to support Watson if we give all that up? That's the question. 

 

I don't agree re-Dak and the cowboys. They were barely winning with Dak and fell completely apart without him. They have an OK roster but it's very much over-rated IMO. Now having that moron Nolan as DC did not help them. So maybe a better DC gets them playing better. But still not sure they have a better roster than us. I also seriously doubt at this time they can keep Dak without the franchise tag. 

 

I do think we can get Watson what he needs to be successful even if we pay up for him. But honestly that's the coaches problem.. 🙂  

 

30 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

We agree here.

 

[CjSuAvE22]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

 

It's like he stole your girlfriend in highschool or something.

He knows.

Hes overrated you can't prove me wrong how many playoff wins? how many pro bowls? how many division titles? drafted 1st overall......the expectations in Detroit should have been higher they are probably realizing they stuck with him too long, he won't make us any better then we are, yet a first round pick could potentially sure up a position of need for years....

Edited January 28, 2021 by CjSuAvE22