Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Comrade Wolf]

I have no idea if this works or not, haven’t cut and paste anything before ....

 

maybe below can assist in the discussion of quarterbacks by round and if with good scouting we could get a good to above average QB after the first round.

 

all the below came from : https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/nfl-draft-round-round-qb-study-1994-2016

 

 

NFL Draft: Quarterback Games (GP) and Games Started (GS) for 1994-2016
Round	#QB	1+GS	0 GP	GP	GS	Record	Pct.	PO GS	PO Record	Pct.
1	57	57	0	4539	4192	2150-2033-7	0.514	204	106-98	0.520
2	25	23	1	1368	1045	534-509-2	0.512	39	16-23	0.410
3	28	23	2	807	567	249-316-2	0.441	16	9-7	0.563
4	34	20	3	753	464	200-262-2	0.433	9	2-7	0.222
5	32	13	14	222	98	37-61-0	0.378	3	1-2	0.333
6	48	18	22	898	679	373-306-0	0.549	50	31-19	0.620
7	48	19	20	726	386	155-229-2	0.404	3	0-3	0.000

 

Average Quarterback's Passing Stats by Round (1994-2016)
Round	#QB	Att.	Cmp	Pct.	Yds	YPA	TD	TD%	INT	INT%	PR	Sack%
1	57	2,418	1,464	60.6%	16,975	7.02	103	4.27%	68	2.83%	84.2	6.31%
2	25	1,392	836	60.1%	9,579	6.88	56	4.03%	42	3.02%	81.7	6.33%
3	28	685	415	60.7%	4,703	6.87	26	3.76%	20	2.92%	81.6	7.56%
4	34	467	277	59.2%	3,155	6.75	18	3.77%	14	3.08%	79.3	7.07%
5	32	113	60	53.0%	686	6.05	3	3.06%	4	3.86%	65.6	7.62%
6	48	496	300	60.5%	3,419	6.89	21	4.25%	13	2.71%	84.1	6.08%
7	48	279	160	57.3%	1,834	6.58	11	3.80%	9	3.38%	75.8	6.46%

 

First Round

Since a simple "bust/success rate" can be so largely subjective, once again we will use a tier format of how I view these quarterbacks as of March 2017.

Tiers In My Eyes: 57 First-Round Quarterbacks
The Good	The Undecided	The Mediocre	The Ugly	The Winning Ugly
Peyton Manning	Blake Bortles	Byron Leftiwch	Akili Smith	Mark Sanchez
Aaron Rodgers	Carson Wentz	Jason Campbell	Blaine Gabbert	Rex Grossman
Ben Roethlisberger	Jameis Winston	Jay Cutler	Brady Quinn	Tim Tebow
Philip Rivers	Jared Goff	Kerry Collins	Brandon Weeden	Trent Dilfer
Matt Ryan	Marcus Mariota	Ryan Tannehill	Cade McNown	Vince Young
Andrew Luck	Paxton Lynch	Sam Bradford	Christian Ponder
Eli Manning	Teddy Bridgewater		David Carr
Steve McNair		The ALEX	EJ Manuel
Chad Pennington		Alex Smith	Heath Shuler
Matthew Stafford			J.P. Losman
Donovan McNabb			Jake Locker
Carson Palmer			JaMarcus Russell
Daunte Culpepper			Jim Druckenmiller
Cam Newton			Joey Harrington
Joe Flacco			Johnny Manziel
Michael Vick			Josh Freeman
			Kyle Boller
			Matt Leinart
			Patrick Ramsey
			Ryan Leaf
			Tim Couch
			Robert Griffin

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Yeah, that I agree to, but the question I ask would you rather have JJ Watt and not draft a first round QB vs a first round non franchise QB (Jason Campbell) and no Watt? Would you want Champ Bailey and Brad Johnson or Akili Smith/Cade McNown? 

 

Oh I agree with you here. That's why the numbers don't always tell the whole story. Who else you have to draft at your spot, your position needs, etc all go into it. 

 

And I'm also not saying we should never draft QBs outside of the 1st. There are plenty of non 1st round guys who went on to be decent backup type QBs, which is something every team wants to have too. I'm just saying that from a numbers perspective it seems to be a losing strategy to bank on that for finding your franchise altering guy who will help lead you to the promised land.

[HigSkin]

Scheffter breaking news on ESPN that Watson does want to get traded.

[mistertim]

@A-Lost-WolfThat's good stuff, and that get's more into the subjective things like "What exactly does a guy have to do to be called a franchise QB?"

 

Which is why I say the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt as well.

 

Also  at how Brady single-handedly ruined the curve for the 6th round in your data.

[Thinking Skins]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

Oh I agree with you here. That's why the numbers don't always tell the whole story. Who else you have to draft at your spot, your position needs, etc all go into it. 

 

And I'm also not saying we should never draft QBs outside of the 1st. There are plenty of non 1st round guys who went on to be decent backup type QBs, which is something every team wants to have too. I'm just saying that from a numbers perspective it seems to be a losing strategy to bank on that for finding your franchise altering guy who will help lead you to the promised land.

One thing I've respected this franchise for since the 80s and before is that we could find QBs through such a wide means. We drafted Heath and Gus, we signed Trent as an UDFA, we signed Brad as a FA, we traded for Brunell, McNabb, Smith, we drafted Cousins. 

 

The thing is that when we draft a first round QB, what happens is that there is an expectation that somewhere over the next 2-3 years (if not sooner) this becomes their team, as it should. But if we bring in FA QB or trade for somebody that's a backup (similar to what Houston did with Schaub who was in Atlanta), then we can address the position generally at a resonable cost (non first rounder although we may wind up trading a draft pick like a third rounder like our trades above), and while these guys may be assumed to be the starter there can be a competition and its not as disappointing if say a Ramsey is able to beat out a Brunell or if a Colt McCoy or Haskins can beat out a Case Keenum. 

 

Its a losing strategy in my opinion if we don't have the competition at QB for a non franchise QB. I feel like until he's a franchise guy he should be competing for his job. 

[KDawg]

We’re not going to get Stafford. And he’s not worth two first rounders. We have too many holes to invest that much and it may take that AND more for us to get him. If by some change we get him for a 1 and 3, awesome.

 

But this team has had its value drastically over estimated by the fanbase because of the playoff run and a strong showing against Tampa (largely due to the UDFA QB that no one wants).

 

We have a good base built. This year has to be about rounding the roster. 
 

Now, am I saying we don’t need a QB? No. But we can’t be crazy about it. People wanting to trade the farm for Watson: I get it. He’s a young top 5ish QB. Here’s the problem... he’s had loaded rosters and didn’t accomplish much in Houston. Do we think our offensive staff and team is good enough to get the job done? Anything short of a Super Bowl is a failure in a move for Watson. 
 

Do we beat Dallas 2x if they have Dak and a couple of their OL? Do we beat Philly week 17 if we lose to Dallas 2x? There are so many what ifs.

 

The reason for optimism is in past years we lose to Dallas even without those pieces. This team is on the up swing. 
 

Now... again... Stafford for a 1/3 is great. Get it done. Beyond that I’m not sure he leads us where we need him to.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[DefinitelyMaybe]

Matt Stafford is a quality QB, no doubting it.

 

But if I’m Washington I have 0 interest, get a MOBILE QB and open this playbook wide

[Lovi]

Gotta think Watson being on the market helps us.  Maybe it takes away a Stafford suiter.

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

If true, and Houston actively starts taking calls, this could drastically alter the market for Stafford. 

 

4 minutes ago, DefinitelyMaybe said:

Matt Stafford is a quality QB, no doubting it.

 

But if I’m Washington I have 0 interest, get a MOBILE QB and open this playbook wide

 

Do you mean a mobile QB or a running QB? Stafford isn't a running QB but if you watch him play he IS mobile and is really good at moving around, extending plays, and making things happen when everything breaks down. He can also make some ludicrous off-platform throws that even Mahomes would probably raise his eyebrows at.

Edited January 28, 2021 by mistertim

[Lovi]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

If true, and Houston actively starts taking calls, this could drastically alter the market for Stafford. 

 

 

Do you mean a mobile QB or a running QB? Stafford isn't a running QB but if you watch him play he IS mobile and is really good at moving around, extending plays, and making things happen when everything breaks down.

 

Maybe he means a QB from Mobile, AL.  lol

[JoggingGod]

2 minutes ago, Lovi said:

Gotta think Watson being on the market helps us.  Maybe it takes away a Stafford suiter.

Or we are in on Watson too.

[DefinitelyMaybe]

8 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Do you mean a mobile QB or a running QB? Stafford isn't a running QB but if you watch him play he IS mobile and is really good at moving around, extending plays, and making things happen when everything breaks down. He can also make some ludicrous off-platform throws that even Mahomes would probably raise his eyebrows at.

Should have been clearer, a running QB 

[goskins10]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

We’re not going to get Stafford. And he’s not worth two first rounders. We have too many holes to invest that much and it may take that AND more for us to get him. If by some change we get him for a 1 and 3, awesome.

 

I disagree here - not that I WANT to see them use 2 1sts. But if he is the guy, get him. You can round out the team other ways. One 1st from next year does not change things that much. Now if you trade that and 4 other picks, OK. But one additional 1st rd pick gets you a guy like Stafford? Do it and live with the results. 

 

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Now, am I saying we don’t need a QB? No. But we can’t be crazy about it. People wanting to trade the farm for Watson: I get it. He’s a young top 5ish QB. Here’s the problem... he’s had loaded rosters and didn’t accomplish much in Houston. Do we think our offensive staff and team is good enough to get the job done? Anything short of a Super Bowl is a failure in a move for Watson. 

 

You will have explain this to me. I respect your opinion but here is what he has done so far.  Just not seeing what you are saying. 

2017 - Went 3-3 for a 4-12 team before getting injured.

2018 - Full time starter and he went 10-6

2019 - Full time starter and went 11-6

2020 - Bill Obrien shredded the team so they went 4-12 but he had a very good season even though they got rid of Hopkins!  Career higs in yds, Average Yards per attempt, and Yds/catch. Picks went up a little but the D ewas just not good. 

 

In the POS 2018 -= his very first he struggled. But in 2019 he played very well both games. They did not lose because of him that I can remember. 

 

To me Bill O'brien is a nutcase and wasted Watson. 

 

Here are the numbers: 

 

 

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Do we beat Dallas 2x if they have Dak and a couple of their OL? Do we beat Philly week 17 if we lose to Dallas 2x? There are so many what ifs.

 

Fair questions. But you can only play who is in front of you. Does NY beat us with Alex both games? He did not play the 1st gm we lost by 1pt and the second he came in after Kyle gets injured and almost brings us back despite having 3 picks. How abotu the Panthers? So that really can go both ways. 

 

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

The reason for optimism is in past years we lose to Dallas even without those pieces. This team is on the up swing. 
 

Now... again... Stafford for a 1/3 is great. Get it done. Beyond that I’m not sure he leads us where we need him to.

 

Fair enough I jsut disagree. Again, I think if you see QB that is a difference maker on your team you go get him. You have to. But you have to be convinced he is your guy. He is the one that makes a difference. 

 

Either way it will be interesting to see what they do. 

[Fat Stupid Loser]

15 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Now, am I saying we don’t need a QB? No. But we can’t be crazy about it. People wanting to trade the farm for Watson: I get it. He’s a young top 5ish QB. Here’s the problem... he’s had loaded rosters and didn’t accomplish much in Houston. Do we think our offensive staff and team is good enough to get the job done? Anything short of a Super Bowl is a failure in a move for Watson. 

 

Been thinking this.  They hysteria around the league about Watson maybe being available and what it would cost.  I agree, didn't do much with loaded rosters. Now success isn't all on him but is he good because of the team around him? Is he really not that good?  A guy demanding that kind of trade capital should have won more with those loaded rosters I would think.  Again there are lots of variables to success and winning playoff games, but I'm thinking Watson wouldn't be top 5ish if he were drafted by the Jets.

[rumplestilskin]

3 minutes ago, DefinitelyMaybe said:

Should have been clearer, a running QB 

You are right though, either running or mobility declines at a remarkable rate as a QB ages into his 30's. 

[DWinzit]

Will Watson's definitive wishes to leave affect Staffords market? 

They are the crown jewels of the off season unless there are surprise later entries

 

[bakedtater1]

I believe 2 firsts for stafford is a stretch..watson on the other hand..now that could be worth investing..watson hasn't been in the leauge that long..how can we get watson and Hopkins back together for the Washington football team?..haha

[Est.1974]

4 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

I disagree here - not that I WANT to see them use 2 1sts. But if he is the guy, get him. You can round out the team other ways. One 1st from next year does not change things that much. Now if you trade that and 4 other picks, OK. But one additional 1st rd pick gets you a guy like Stafford? Do it and live with the results. 

Totally agree. Too fine a margin to fall short. It makes no sense. It is more than I would like to trade, and it is the maximum I’d go on Stafford, but a 1+3 in 2021, or 2 firsts, yeah  you do it and don’t look back for 5 seasons.

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, DefinitelyMaybe said:

Should have been clearer, a running QB 

 

Meh...there's really only one successful running QB in the NFL. The other top guys (Mahomes, Allen, Watson, Wilson, even Rodgers to an extent) CAN run, but they more often are mobile and use their athleticism to extend and make plays. I'm not really that interested in a "running QB" but I definitely want one who's athletic and can make things happen with that aspect of his game.

[Est.1974]

Watson must be worried someone else is going to get the gig he wants.

[Thinking Skins]

Just now, mistertim said:

Meh...there's really only one successful running QB in the NFL. The other top guys (Mahomes, Allen, Watson, Wilson, even Rodgers to an extent) CAN run, but they more often are mobile and use their athleticism to extend and make plays. I'm not really that interested in a "running QB" but I definitely want one who's athletic and can make things happen with that aspect of his game.

After RG3 and watching Vick and Cunningham I'm less than interested in a running QB. I want a mobile QB who can move around in the pocket and create passing lanes and escape pressure but I don't want him taking unnecessary hits. There's a reason that a RB's shelf life is to age 30 and i think the same thing holds up for running QBs. Look at Cam. 

[86 Snyder]

Man this offseason is gonna be 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

[mhd24]

Say the Watson trade is #3+#18+Tua and Houston doesn't like Tua (they prefer Fields or Wilson at #3).  Would you trade #19 for Tua assuming Stafford goes to Indy?

[bakedtater1]

Just now, mhd24 said:

Say the Watson trade is #3+#18+Tua and Houston doesn't like Tua (they prefer Fields or Wilson at #3).  Would you trade #19 for Tua assuming Stafford goes to Indy?

No way on tua thanks