Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[TheShredder]

10 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

If we REALLY think this through...or, I'll speak for myself, we need to plan on how can we beat Kansas City. If we really want to get to that level then the answer is to trade for Watson. That means ponying up what Houston wants and biting the bullet. Maybe we can get those picks back through some creative deals? But to really compete with Mahomes we need a stud QB and one is supposedly available, we need to get him. Heinicke becomes his backup. 

If Heinicke has better WRs and a LT, he beats Brady and TB who are playing KC in the SB.  People are acting like what happened really didn't happen.  I think it's dumb to ignore the tape and the real needs to win that caliber of matchup.  KC gets beat every year, more than once.  They might be losing again next game. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, TheShredder said:

If Heinicke has better WRs and a LT, he beats Brady and TB who are playing KC in the SB.  People are acting like what happened really didn't happen.  I think it's dumb to ignore the tape and the real needs to win that caliber of matchup.  KC gets beat every year, more than once.  They might be losing again next game. 

 

What tape? The guy has played 5 quarters for us. 

 

People aren't "acting like what happened really didn't happen", they're being realistic about the likelihood that an oft injured UDFA QB who's been on 5 teams in 6 years having 5 good quarters of play means that he's suddenly a top future franchise QB.

 

Is it possible? Anything is. Is it likely? No. This is probably why Rivera and Co reportedly don't share the sentiments about Heinicke and want to go big with a new QB.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 hours ago, wit33 said:

It’s one of those potential Rudy like stories, what Washington fan wouldn’t get behind Taylor tearing up the league in the back half of his career. Those willing to just go all in and not explore a potential great veteran or even an above average guy are trying to hit on an option call way out of the money— it hits rarely, but the percentages are not in your favor. 
 

With that said, I’m not totally opposed to the idea of Taylor, due to the team also having Allen. You have an insurance policy for both of them next year. I’m not the biggest supporter of Allen, but you could see had command of the offense. Going with those two and a rookie isn’t crazy, IMO. The risk is mitigated a bit due to having the both of them. 
 

I like Taylor more because he seems to be a highly skilled runner and if the QB is going to lack pedigree, then he MUST be able to create, extend, and manipulate the field with his legs. Allen lacked running awareness, but has good speed that provides the playmaking element as well. 

 

 

I like Taylor more than Allen, too.  Though Allen seems to have the better build to withstand punishment yet he got hurt twice in a short sample last year.

 

We got Rivera's comments which strongly allude to them seriously being in the QB market and ditto every beat guy and multiple national guys saying they are hearing the same.  So we got heavy smoke that they are QB shopping.

 

I know you aren't on the other side of this point.  But some are.  So to those people, if you believe that Heinicke/Allen are the answer so why mess shopping for other QBs, etc -- that translates to Rivera not knowing what he's doing assuming they indeed go QB shopping.  

 

It's just tough for me to believe that Rivera who would know I presume miles more about Heincike and Allen than we would (having both in other stints too and bringing them here) is just dense and can't see what some on the thread can apparently see from afar from a short sample that his answers are right in front of his nose and all he's doing is wasting resources for nothing. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[CjSuAvE22]

How much did we get for Kirk Cousins??? Thats about how much i would give up for Stafford....Media loves stafford and for no reason, if we are past the days of not doing due diligence then i dont think we trade for stafford..

[HigSkin]

5 minutes ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

How much did we get for Kirk Cousins??? Thats about how much i would give up for Stafford....Media loves stafford and for no reason, if we are past the days of not doing due diligence then i dont think we trade for stafford..

 

Cousins just walked and we only got a comp pick

[Koolblue13]

8 minutes ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

How much did we get for Kirk Cousins??? Thats about how much i would give up for Stafford....Media loves stafford and for no reason, if we are past the days of not doing due diligence then i dont think we trade for stafford..

I'm pretty sure that after 2 solid weeks of people posting unending evidence that Stafford is a great GREAT QB and that opinion is widely held by every pro in the NFL, leaves me to believe that you are the only one who hasn't done his due diligence. I'm totally against the trades, but I'm still into Stafford as our QB. 

 

It's like he stole your girlfriend in highschool or something.

5 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

Cousins just walked and we only got a comp pick

He knows.

[Thinking Skins]

7 hours ago, Jericho said:

A lot.

But the hype machine is real this time, I swear! 

 

The funny thing is that most drafts produce 1 or 2 bona fide NFL starters. There are occasional drafts that are exceptions, but those are pretty rare. I know everyone's trying to hype up options 5 and 6 in the coming draft, but it's asking a lot for those to pan out. Could happen, but it's a long shot. 2018 was supposed to be one of the best QB years in a long time. Ended up with 5 first rounders. But...one was a complete bust (Rosen). Another is not long for his team (Darnold). Despite a strong rookie year, there are still plenty of critics of Mayfield. That leaves two real hits in Jackson and Allen. And it took Allen 2+ years to get there and Jackson still can't throw the ball all that great. The rest of the draft was crap.

 

2017 had two really good QBs - Mahomes and Watson

2016 had Goff and Wentz, but both of them are at a bit of career crossroads. Would we count those as hits? There's also Prescott from this draft. 

2015 had nothing

2014 has three players that are currently starters in name, though all their current teams want to replace them (Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, and Jimmy Garoppolo). Only Carr has really proven much over any extended period, though individual opinions on each may vary.

2013 had nothing

2012 is the great RG3 year. Probably the best QB draft in the last 10 years. Unfortunately RG3 was not one of the successes. Luck was pretty good until retiring, Tannehill has been decent (though didn't help Miami much before they moved on from him), and then there's Wilson and Cousins. Plus I suppose whatever you want to count Nick Foles as, though he hasn't held a starting job for any consistent amount of time.

2011 had Cam Newton and whatever you think of Andy Dalton

2010 had...Sam Bradford? He was sort of okay when he wasn't injured

 

2009 had Stafford and nothing much else

2008 had Matt Ryan and the mediocrity of Joe Flacco

2007 had nothing

2006 had Jay Cutler as the best

2005 has Aaron Rodgers and eventually Alex Smith turned out okay (but took a really long time to get there)

 

This list is not encouraging me to think Washington will really find any solution in the draft without moving up significantly. At which point, it's probably better to just trade for a sure thing like Stafford or Watson (if you can, but does depend on price)

 

I said a similar thing a few months ago. My point behind the analysis was about the years people talk about "historic QB drafts". They just don't happen. I remember 1999 draft and the speculation on how historic it was - Tim Couch, Donovan Mcnabb, Akili Smith, Culpepper, McNown, King, Aaron Brooks. Those last two were just added because they were late rounders who were decvent. But 5 first rounders and it was talked up as if it was the best ever. But only McNabb and Culpepper were good starters. This has been the same thing ever since. Occasionally there are drafts like 2012 where you have some superstars (Luck, Wilson) and some players that are borderline stars (Tannehill, Cousins, RG3) but even those are rare. What we see a lot more of is the 0-2 stars, and 0-2 mediocre players coming out of a draft (I wish I had a log of UDFA QBs as well but there's no site where I can easily access that info). 

 

But the counter to that is my favorite strategy, which is not depending on the QB to turn the team around. We saw in Chicago that Kyle Orton and that great defense. Orton wasn't putting up numbers but he was winning games. Then they first played Grossman in the playoffs over him. Then years later they let him go in favor of Jay Cutler who was a higher priced ego who didn't play much better. 

 

And that's my problem with the QB threads. Given, I don't know everything about QBs but its so frustrating to see all this hype about how great these QBs coming into the league are only to see them flame out, but if they're a first rounder they're given so many chances because "talent" "arm strength" etc. 

 

If you look at the drafts since 1999, we can kinda ignore the top 15 or so QBs drafted because they're some of the givens and the names are all known. Plus they're all the first round succeses. 

 

But if you look at the 16th best QB down to 32 over that period. It looks like this (sorted by Career AV at PFR: 

16 - Michael Vick (1, 1)

17 - Joe Flacco (1, 18)

18 - Jay Cutler (1, 11)

19 - Daunte Culpepper (1, 11)

20 - Andy Dalton (2, 35)

21 - Ryan Fitzpatrick (7, 250)

22 - Ryan Tannehill (1, 8 )

23 - Kirk Cousins (4, 102)

24 - Andrew Luck (1, 1)

25 - Matt Schaub (3, 90)

26 - Derek Carr (2, 36)

27 - Aaron Brooks (4, 131)

28 - David Garrard (4, 108)

29 - Dak Prescott (4, 135)

30 - Marc Bulger (6, 168)

31 - Chad Pennington (1, 18)

32  - Patrick Mahomes (1, 10)

 

A lot of the names on this list (Mahomes for example) are young guys whose career AV is still rising and so this is by no means a complete list. But if you look at the guys like Brooks, Schaub, and Garrard, you see that this list is filled with guys who had respectable careers. In fact 9 of these 17 QBs (more than half) at what I'd call the mid-tier of NFL QBs over the past 21 years have been non first rounders. 

 

If we continue down this line: 

1999: 3rd best QB 4th rounder Aaron Brooks (2 of the 5 first rounders were good)

2000: Top 2 QBs 6th rounders (Chad Pennington was a decent first rounder but nothing great)

2001: Two of top 3 QBs are second rounders (Vick was a superstar)

2002: Top QB is David Garrard (4th), third best QB is Josh McCown (all 3 of the QBs in the first round were busts)

2003: No low rounders did anything significant. Seneca Wallace and Chris Sims were the 4th and 5th best QBs. (only 1 of 4 first rounders, Carson Palmer, wasn't a bust)

2004: Schaub was a better QB than Losman (3 of the 4 QBs are legit superstars)

2005: Fitzpatrick was a better QB than Campbell. Cassel and Orton put up comparable numbers to Campbell and Anderson was a backup. Looking back, this looks like a historic year for lower round QBs. (1 of the 3 QBs was a bust or ultimately didn't live up to expectations)

2006: Tavaris Jackson an Brad Smith were better QBs than Matt Leinard. Kellen Clemens was comparable. (Ultimatley Vince Young was a bust, so only 1 of 3 first rounders wasn't a bust)

2007: Trent Edwards, Kevin Kolb, Drew Stanton, Tyler Thigpen were all better QBs than Jamarcus Russell. Brady Quinn was a bust too since John Beck was better than him.

2008: Chad Henne (2nd) was third QB taken and third best QB. (both Ryan and Flacco were successful)

2009: No real production from low rounders (onlt 1 of 3 first rounders wasn't a bust - Stafford)

2010: Colt McCoy > Tim Tebow (both first rounders were busts although Bradford was a rich bust on all the chances he got)

2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor were all better QBs than Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker. (3 of the 4 first round QBs were busts)

2012: Wilson > Tannehill, Cousins > Luck, RG3. And Foles career numbers may eventually be better than both RG3 and Luck depending on if he gets another chance. (2 of the 4 first round QBs were busts - RG3 and Weeden)

2013: Geno Smith and Mike Glennon > EJ Manuel (really bad QB year, EJ Manuel was a bust)

2014: Derek Carr > Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater. Jimmy G is also respectable for a 2nd rounder. (all three first rounders were busts)

2015: Another bad QB year. Winston and Mariota are the top QBs (both first rounders were busts)

2016: Dak Prescott > Goff, Wentz. Brissett (3rd rounder) is 4th best. (I wont call Goff and Wentz busts but they're not superstars either)

2017: Mahomes > Watson > Trubisky (not new)

2018: Mason Rudolph > Josh Rosen (1 of 4 first rounders was a bust)

2019: Gardner Minshew > Drew Lock, Dwayne Haskins (1 of 3 first rounders was a bust)

 

This is not to say that the low rounders are superstars but I think its worth considering the idea of (consider 2011) when Tennessee took Jake Locker at number 8. What if they had taken Watt at number 8 and then somebody like Dalton/Kaep/Tyrod later in the draft? Thats what I'm always wondering about with these first round QBs because the likelihood of getting a superstar is so low and QB is so hard to predict that if you have a guy that can solidify a position on your team as an almost sure fire pick and compare that with a QB. 

 

And like you say, its so popular to say that every year is the 1983 draft but they're not living up to it and thats why the 1983 draft is so special. Its very difficult to find the superstar QB. Its much more common to find a respectable starter and those are just as likely to come from the non first rounders as the first rounders. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[skinsmarydu]

[Anselmheifer]

How does the hiring of Culley by the Texans affect Watson’s likelihood of leaving?

[Thinking Skins]

I'll further my point I was making earlier. People talk about the whole superstar / franchise QB and how they're only found in the first. Well, since 1999, there have been 65 first round QBs taken and 19 (20 if you count Luck)  of those 65 QBs have become franchise QBs. 

Mcnabb

Culpepper

Vick

Rivers

Roethlisberger

Manning

Rodgers

Ryan

Flacco

Stafford

Newton

?Luck?

Mahomes

Watson

Jackson

Allen

Mayfield

Murray

Herbert

Burrow

 

I concede that the only lower round guys who are franchise are Brees, Wilson, Prescott, Brady and Bulger and maybe Cousins. That's not a high number. But it seems that the falloff from the first rounder isnt from franchise QB to respectable starter (like say a Jay Cutler) but too many go from savior ot complete busts or just backupland (Johnny Manziel or Marcus Mariota). 

[Skinsinparadise]

46 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

 

A lot of the names on this list (Mahomes for example) are young guys whose career AV is still rising and so this is by no means a complete list. But if you look at the guys like Brooks,

2019: Gardner Minshew > Drew Lock, Dwayne Haskins (1 of 3 first rounders was a bust)

 

This is not to say that the low rounders are superstars but I think its worth considering the idea of (consider 2011) when Tennessee took Jake Locker at number 8. What if they had taken Watt at number 8 and then somebody like Dalton/Kaep/Tyrod later in the draft? Thats what I'm always wondering about with these first round QBs because the likelihood of getting a superstar is so low and QB is so hard to predict that if you have a guy that can solidify a position on your team as an almost sure fire pick and compare that with a QB. 

 

And like you say, its so popular to say that every year is the 1983 draft but they're not living up to it and thats why the 1983 draft is so special. Its very difficult to find the superstar QB. Its much more common to find a respectable starter and those are just as likely to come from the non first rounders as the first rounders. 

 

Agree its not easy to find the superstar QB.  But IMO you got to swing when you like one.  When your scouts tell you that the dude isn't the right one like they did with Haskins then the owner has to listen.  Fortunately Dan did listen according to one story to his scouts when he fell in love with Brady Quinn. 

 

As for the low rounder approach.  Depends to me on the goals.  Reading some of your posts, I get the impression at times, you'd be perfectly happy to replicate the 2015-2018 seasons as a statisfactory long term goal.  We go 7-9, sometimes 9-7 and have a thrill of a playoff game, maybe go back to 6-10, then 8-8 again, 9-7 etc.  We'd never be great but not irrelevant either.    

 

If that's the goal, then Kyle Allen I think can get that done for us.  Yep a dude like Minshew would fit perfect too if the goal is mediocrity.  He give you that occasional flash.  Some bad games.  Some games in between.   If the idea is our best is sometimes good but never great, often mediocre but never awful -- I do think we don't need to get aggressive at QB.  Shoot low and hope to get lucky could certainly work on that front -- mainly because if lucky is defined as someone like Minshew they aren't that hard to find.  Even a dude like Case Keenum can on occasion get hot, too. 

 

This year in the AFC playoffs every QB was a first rounder, all in the top half of the first round.  NFC playoffs:  4 of the 7 were first rounders, 5 of you count Alex Smith's contribution to get us there.  Brees was at the top of the 2nd.  And Brady remains the greatest QB 6th round unicorn in NFL history.

 

Yeah its kind of scary that in spite of so many top QBs are high first rounders -- still there are so many misses in the first round, too.  But it is what it is.  The thing is the hit rate outside of first round is insanely bad, way worse.  For every unicorn like Russell Wilson you got 15 Davis Webb types that people forgot years later ever existed. 

 

The comeback from some at times is what if you combine every round and stack it versus the first round versus comparing each round individually.  So lets compare a pool of 230 players versus 32.  Yeah it becomes more interesting then but the first round is still more inviting.  But the comparison regardless is fantasy because its not like the choice in the real world becomes you either take a QB in the first round or instead the prize is you get 6 QBs, one QB in every round after that. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[goskins10]

7 hours ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

He wont....have you watched him play? Detroit is always behind so his passing stats are high yet often times when he needs to make the play he cant..hes got a big strong arm but thats about it.

 

He is 4th among active QBs in 4th Q wins among active players behind only Brady, Bree's and Ben. His % comebacks is 5th among active QBs (Add Matt Ryan to the previous list). Also contrast that with Rogers who is like 20th in comeback wins and near the very bottom of active players in % comebacks. He is 2 spots AFTER Kirk Cousins. Let that sink in. So this is a false narrative on Stafford.

 

I was not a big fan to start but when you look into his accomplishments he is very very good QB. Is he top tier? No. But he is right behind the top tier. When you consider a 1 legged veteran and 3 nobodys took us to the POs and had a legitimate shot at winning the PO game, an above average QB should make a huge difference. Is it enough to get to and win a SB? No way to know till you try. But I would like that ride. 

[DWinzit]

13 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I'll further my point I was making earlier. People talk about the whole superstar / franchise QB and how they're only found in the first. Well, since 1999, there have been 65 first round QBs taken and 19 (20 if you count Luck)  of those 65 QBs have become franchise QBs. 

Mcnabb

Culpepper

Vick

Rivers

Roethlisberger

Manning

Rodgers

Ryan

Flacco

Stafford

Newton

?Luck?

Mahomes

Watson

Jackson

Allen

Mayfield

Murray

Herbert

Burrow

 

I concede that the only lower round guys who are franchise are Brees, Wilson, Prescott, Brady and Bulger and maybe Cousins. That's not a high number. But it seems that the falloff from the first rounder isnt from franchise QB to respectable starter (like say a Jay Cutler) but too many go from savior ot complete busts or just backupland (Johnny Manziel or Marcus Mariota). 

Great posts. Thanks for all the time taken. 

There is definitely no proven way of getting a franchise QB. Heck , the Redskins have tried every way possible over the years and fallen on there arse every time.

It will be fun to see what Heinicke can do in the spring but we best have a  minimum of good competition for him (if they don't go Stafford/Watson) whether a 1st like Lance or Jones to a third like Newsome to a mobile FA like Taylor.

 

BTW yes include Luck in your list.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

 

[goskins10]

51 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

I said a similar thing a few months ago. My point behind the analysis was about the years people talk about "historic QB drafts". They just don't happen. I remember 1999 draft and the speculation on how historic it was - Tim Couch, Donovan Mcnabb, Akili Smith, Culpepper, McNown, King, Aaron Brooks. Those last two were just added because they were late rounders who were decvent. But 5 first rounders and it was talked up as if it was the best ever. But only McNabb and Culpepper were good starters. This has been the same thing ever since. Occasionally there are drafts like 2012 where you have some superstars (Luck, Wilson) and some players that are borderline stars (Tannehill, Cousins, RG3) but even those are rare. What we see a lot more of is the 0-2 stars, and 0-2 mediocre players coming out of a draft (I wish I had a log of UDFA QBs as well but there's no site where I can easily access that info). 

 

But the counter to that is my favorite strategy, which is not depending on the QB to turn the team around. We saw in Chicago that Kyle Orton and that great defense. Orton wasn't putting up numbers but he was winning games. Then they first played Grossman in the playoffs over him. Then years later they let him go in favor of Jay Cutler who was a higher priced ego who didn't play much better. 

 

And that's my problem with the QB threads. Given, I don't know everything about QBs but its so frustrating to see all this hype about how great these QBs coming into the league are only to see them flame out, but if they're a first rounder they're given so many chances because "talent" "arm strength" etc. 

 

If you look at the drafts since 1999, we can kinda ignore the top 15 or so QBs drafted because they're some of the givens and the names are all known. Plus they're all the first round succeses. 

 

But if you look at the 16th best QB down to 32 over that period. It looks like this (sorted by Career AV at PFR: 

16 - Michael Vick (1, 1)

17 - Joe Flacco (1, 18)

18 - Jay Cutler (1, 11)

19 - Daunte Culpepper (1, 11)

20 - Andy Dalton (2, 35)

21 - Ryan Fitzpatrick (7, 250)

22 - Ryan Tannehill (1, 8 )

23 - Kirk Cousins (4, 102)

24 - Andrew Luck (1, 1)

25 - Matt Schaub (3, 90)

26 - Derek Carr (2, 36)

27 - Aaron Brooks (4, 131)

28 - David Garrard (4, 108)

29 - Dak Prescott (4, 135)

30 - Marc Bulger (6, 168)

31 - Chad Pennington (1, 18)

32  - Patrick Mahomes (1, 10)

 

A lot of the names on this list (Mahomes for example) are young guys whose career AV is still rising and so this is by no means a complete list. But if you look at the guys like Brooks, Schaub, and Garrard, you see that this list is filled with guys who had respectable careers. In fact 9 of these 17 QBs (more than half) at what I'd call the mid-tier of NFL QBs over the past 21 years have been non first rounders. 

 

If we continue down this line: 

1999: 3rd best QB 4th rounder Aaron Brooks (2 of the 5 first rounders were good)

2000: Top 2 QBs 6th rounders (Chad Pennington was a decent first rounder but nothing great)

2001: Two of top 3 QBs are second rounders (Vick was a superstar)

2002: Top QB is David Garrard (4th), third best QB is Josh McCown (all 3 of the QBs in the first round were busts)

2003: No low rounders did anything significant. Seneca Wallace and Chris Sims were the 4th and 5th best QBs. (only 1 of 4 first rounders, Carson Palmer, wasn't a bust)

2004: Schaub was a better QB than Losman (3 of the 4 QBs are legit superstars)

2005: Fitzpatrick was a better QB than Campbell. Cassel and Orton put up comparable numbers to Campbell and Anderson was a backup. Looking back, this looks like a historic year for lower round QBs. (1 of the 3 QBs was a bust or ultimately didn't live up to expectations)

2006: Tavaris Jackson an Brad Smith were better QBs than Matt Leinard. Kellen Clemens was comparable. (Ultimatley Vince Young was a bust, so only 1 of 3 first rounders wasn't a bust)

2007: Trent Edwards, Kevin Kolb, Drew Stanton, Tyler Thigpen were all better QBs than Jamarcus Russell. Brady Quinn was a bust too since John Beck was better than him.

2008: Chad Henne (2nd) was third QB taken and third best QB. (both Ryan and Flacco were successful)

2009: No real production from low rounders (onlt 1 of 3 first rounders wasn't a bust - Stafford)

2010: Colt McCoy > Tim Tebow (both first rounders were busts although Bradford was a rich bust on all the chances he got)

2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor were all better QBs than Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker. (3 of the 4 first round QBs were busts)

2012: Wilson > Tannehill, Cousins > Luck, RG3. And Foles career numbers may eventually be better than both RG3 and Luck depending on if he gets another chance. (2 of the 4 first round QBs were busts - RG3 and Weeden)

2013: Geno Smith and Mike Glennon > EJ Manuel (really bad QB year, EJ Manuel was a bust)

2014: Derek Carr > Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater. Jimmy G is also respectable for a 2nd rounder. (all three first rounders were busts)

2015: Another bad QB year. Winston and Mariota are the top QBs (both first rounders were busts)

2016: Dak Prescott > Goff, Wentz. Brissett (3rd rounder) is 4th best. (I wont call Goff and Wentz busts but they're not superstars either)

2017: Mahomes > Watson > Trubisky (not new)

2018: Mason Rudolph > Josh Rosen (1 of 4 first rounders was a bust)

2019: Gardner Minshew > Drew Lock, Dwayne Haskins (1 of 3 first rounders was a bust)

 

This is not to say that the low rounders are superstars but I think its worth considering the idea of (consider 2011) when Tennessee took Jake Locker at number 8. What if they had taken Watt at number 8 and then somebody like Dalton/Kaep/Tyrod later in the draft? Thats what I'm always wondering about with these first round QBs because the likelihood of getting a superstar is so low and QB is so hard to predict that if you have a guy that can solidify a position on your team as an almost sure fire pick and compare that with a QB. 

 

And like you say, its so popular to say that every year is the 1983 draft but they're not living up to it and thats why the 1983 draft is so special. Its very difficult to find the superstar QB. Its much more common to find a respectable starter and those are just as likely to come from the non first rounders as the first rounders. 

 

First, great work putting this together!!  It took some time so thanks! Next, I agree with your overall premise. But I have to be that person that calls out the one year where there really was an historic QB draft - 1983 - Elway, Marino, Kelly all HOF plus Ken O'Brien and Tony Eason who had very respectable years. But to further your point, this is the only season I can remember - or even read about - that could qualify as an historic QB draft. And all were 1st rd picks. Interestly enough the next two seasons 1984 and 1985 there were no QBs taken in the 1str rd. There may be others but those stood out to me. 

 

You made a further point that the drop off outside a few notable outliers between QBs taken in the 1st vs other rounds. I believe this due to the hype you mentioned. Some of these QBs taken in the 1st should have never been taken in the first. So it creates a hole between the 1st rd where all these day two picks work their way up people's boards because they are desperate for a QB so they take them at least 1 rd early and the later rds. But they have to. 

 

Again great work and thanks! 

 

 

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

22 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

As for the low rounder approach.  Depends to me on the goals.  Reading some of your posts, I get the impression at times, you'd be perfectly happy to replicate the 2015-2018 seasons as a statisfactory long term goal.  We go 7-9, sometimes 9-7 and have a thrill of a playoff game, maybe go back to 6-10, then 8-8 again, 9-7 etc.  We'd never be great but not irrelevant either.    

 

That's the thing. Its not like your doomed to go 8-8 forever. The Cowboys were laughed at for that reason because people were saying that Dak and before that Romo weren't franchise QBs or weren't guys that could take you there. But then they developed into the guys you can build around and things change. Sure sometimes you have a Foles or an Orton and what they started out as is what they ultimately become but just like people didn't know that all of the 2003 or 2011 QBs would be that bad, people don't know how good these low rounders who can play can be. And just like the first rounders, there is general knowledge (and I'd suspect more within the team) about who has a chance to make the roster, who has a chance to be a backup and who may see playing time as a rookie even before the draft. I remember when we drafted Sage, everybody laughed because he had almost no draft pedigree and that's about what happeed with his career. But some of these guys (think Mason Rudolph, Finley, Grier, were talked about well before the draft as maybe lower ceiling guys but higher floors than most late round QBs. And especially when you have a late round QB who has something like at least 2 years starting in college and a high completion percentage, it gives indication that he has a greater chance than most late round QBs. 

 

But there's the whole fake it til you make it saying that I was kinda pointing out in a previous thread. Its not like we're doing nothing. Its just that you can win games with a good defense and a Kyle Orton at QB. And while you have Orton you're trying to build up everywhere else until you see a guy that you're sure is a Mahomes or a Rodgers or a Brady. Otherwise you keep building. Like I said in the post, look at what Houston did. They kept Matt Schaub at QB instead of taking a flyer on a "franchise guy" and went with the homerun pick of JJ Watt. And they went 10-6 that year and 12-4 the next. Schaub never turned into a franchise guy but at the time he was easily somebody who could start in this league. 

 

But think about that 20 franchise QBs have been drafted in the first round since 1999. That's not even 1 per team. That's not even one for every playoff team. So some teams are going to be consistently drafting these first round busts and cycling through 3-13 seasons to do it again and in the mean time building nothing because their first rounders keep going to QB busts. What did we have for the Ramsey, Campbell, RG3 and Haskins deals 3 years later? Thats 4+ first rounders gone and nothing to show for it because 3 of those guys were complete busts and the 4th (Campbell) wasn't good enough to not be replaced. And what were we doing? We won 18 games in 3 years with Ramsey at QB, 21 games in 3 years with Campbell at QB, 13 games in 2 years with Griffin at QB, and 4 games in 2 years with Haskins at QB. That's not something to make me happy either. In fact when comparing the possibility of going 6-10 to 10-6 for a decade vs going 3-13 to 6-10, I'd take the former. 

 

And I just think that just like we did with Cousins we can find the late rounders who slip through the draft (think Newman this year) who we can build around and mold into a franchise QB, but not suck while we're doing it because we also have a running game and a defense. 

[mistertim]

41 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I'll further my point I was making earlier. People talk about the whole superstar / franchise QB and how they're only found in the first. Well, since 1999, there have been 65 first round QBs taken and 19 (20 if you count Luck)  of those 65 QBs have become franchise QBs. 

Mcnabb

Culpepper

Vick

Rivers

Roethlisberger

Manning

Rodgers

Ryan

Flacco

Stafford

Newton

?Luck?

Mahomes

Watson

Jackson

Allen

Mayfield

Murray

Herbert

Burrow

 

I concede that the only lower round guys who are franchise are Brees, Wilson, Prescott, Brady and Bulger and maybe Cousins. That's not a high number. But it seems that the falloff from the first rounder isnt from franchise QB to respectable starter (like say a Jay Cutler) but too many go from savior ot complete busts or just backupland (Johnny Manziel or Marcus Mariota). 

 

But if we do the same for non 1st rounders it doesn't look very good statistically (I know you're a math guy so please excuse any errors 😁)

 

210 taken since 1999.

 

We'll just say ok with Cousins...so that's 6 QBs.

 

Rounded up, that's a 2.86% hit rate on QBs outside of the 1st round, whereas you have a 30.77% hit rate (that's including Luck) in the 1st.

 

I see people say that it's a good idea to keep playing the numbers game and eventually we'll find a really good QB outside of the 1st...but the actual numbers seem to indicate that it's a losing strategy to find a top franchise QB unless you're literally taking 4 QBs every year which obviously isn't exactly sustainable. 

 

ADD: Clearly this also doesn't factor in a lot of subjective data like "How exactly do you define a franchise QB, and who counts as one?"

Edited January 28, 2021 by mistertim

[Thinking Skins]

3 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

First, great work putting this together!!  It took some time so thanks! Next, I agree with your overall premise. But I have to be that person that calls out the one year where there really was an historic QB draft - 1983 - Elway, Marino, Kelly all HOF plus Ken O'Brien and Tony Eason who had very respectable years. But to further your point, this is the only season I can remember - or even read about - that could qualify as an historic QB draft. And all were 1st rd picks. Interestly enough the next two seasons 1984 and 1985 there were no QBs taken in the 1str rd. There may be others but those stood out to me. 

 

You made a further point that the drop off outside a few notable outliers between QBs taken in the 1st vs other rounds. I believe this due to the hype you mentioned. Some of these QBs taken in the 1st should have never been taken in the first. So it creates a hole between the 1st rd where all these day two picks work their way up people's boards because they are desperate for a QB so they take them at least 1 rd early and the later rds. But they have to. 

 

Again great work and thanks! 

 

 

 

 

You're welcome.

 

This is such an important point. Some of these teams are such fanboys that they fall in love with a player and say that they need to have him and because they don't want to wait 32 picks for the next chance at him, or don't want to trade down or even risk waiting a few more spots they just take a Daniel Jones at 8 / Haskins at 15. Or there's a run on QBs and a team will come in and say "well I need to get one because they'll run out soon". I think that's why, if you just look at it, there are far fewer QBS taken in the second than the first. (65, 23, 27, 32, 36, 46, 45). So there have been more QBs taken in the first than in the second and third combined. 

[HigSkin]

 

[heyholetsgogrant]

1 hour ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

How much did we get for Kirk Cousins??? Thats about how much i would give up for Stafford....Media loves stafford and for no reason, if we are past the days of not doing due diligence then i dont think we trade for stafford..

Trade Cousins? Good luck in this quarterback market - StarTribune.com

Kirk Cousins does have a playoff win, Stafford, 0.  I don't get the hype.

Edited January 28, 2021 by heyholetsgogrant

[Thinking Skins]

6 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

But if we do the same for non 1st rounders it doesn't look very good statistically (I know you're a math guy so please excuse any errors 😁)

 

210 taken since 1999.

 

We'll just say ok with Cousins...so that's 6 QBs.

 

Rounded up, that's a 2.86% hit rate on QBs outside of the 1st round, whereas you have a 30.77% hit rate (that's including Luck) in the 1st.

 

I see people say that it's a good idea to keep playing the numbers game and eventually we'll find a really good QB outside of the 1st...but the actual numbers seem to indicate that it's a losing strategy to find a top franchise QB unless you're literally taking 4 QBs every year which obviously isn't exactly sustainable. 

 

ADD: Clearly this also doesn't factor in a lot of subjective data like "How exactly do you define a franchise QB, and who counts as one?"

Yeah, that I agree to, but the question I ask would you rather have JJ Watt and not draft a first round QB vs a first round non franchise QB (Jason Campbell) and no Watt? Would you want Champ Bailey and Brad Johnson or Akili Smith/Cade McNown? 

[Thinking Skins]

The main thing about my post isn't that the ultimate draft solution should be to draft lower round QBs. Its moreso that first round QBs shouldn't be the answer. I really hate drafting first round QBs. Reclimation projects (other teams first rounders whose first contract is up and are free agents looking for a second chance) - sign me up. Backups who have shined in limited action, I'll sign you too. Lower round QBs - lets draft two. FA QB trades are something I like less but I'm not even as mad about that when you know what you're getting (I get less mad about a Brunell / McNabb / Smith type trade than drafting a first round QB because those guys were less likely to bust like a first rounder). 

 

I highly value the draft and I think that the first round QB is this thing that is so overvalued that I'm over it. Especially here, where we go through coaches and coordinators like fashion trends. That was the problem with Campbell - learning 4 offenses in 4 years. That was part of the problem with RG3 and Haskins, learning these different offenses and working with coaches that they weren't fit for or who didn't like them. All this organizational instability just makes it more difficult to groom a QB. Say what you want about Jason Garrett and his coaching abilities, but Jerry Jones had him in there at HC long enough for Dax to become a top QB in this league and that's really important.