Jericho

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Everything posted by Jericho

  1. Jericho

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Also would prevent the Redskins, from whatever chance there is/was, from making the foolish moving of selecting Jones at 15. If the team did that, I think I'd just have to walk away for two years while the team just sucks and goes nowhere. It's arguably worse than when the Vikings took Christian Ponder at #12. You know its not going to work, you know people are going to get fired, and it's going to set back the franchise years. Added bonus of watching it happen to the Giants, who seems to be an absolute dumpster fire right now.
  2. Jericho

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    My problem is the 2nd tier QBs are Lock and Jones. But somehow most people think they'll go in the first. Having 6 QBs go in the first 45 (or so) picks would be virtually unheard of. 2011 would be the last draft that happened (1999 would be the time before that if you count Shuan King at 50) and most of those QBs sucked. Newton (who went first overall in 2011) is good, but Andy Dalton's the only other QB who's even decent and he's less than inspiring. And that circles back to what we both agree on. Team may be desperate for QBs, but it's not like college is producing more good QBs. So essentially teams are just forcing bad picks based on supply and demand.
  3. Jericho

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Yeah, but there's quotes in this thread about Finley going "high second" or Grier going "late first" and that's not counting Murray, Haskins, Lock, or Daniel Jones. If you believe these things (and I don't), then who's left for the Redskins in the second round? Really just posting the ludicrousness of it all. I get that it's a QB happy league, but if 6 QBs go in the first 40 picks, that's: (1) some serious overdrafting; and (2) one of the best QB classes in NFL history. Generally, I hope the Redskins don't go QB in the second round. It seems whoever they take will be a serious overdraft as the real 2nd round talents are being pushed in the first round. Why pick a 3rd or 4th round talent in the 2nd? Seems like a poor allocation of resources and extremely unlikely to actually pan out. If you're going to buy a lottery ticket and pick a QB, maybe use a pick of less value.
  4. Jericho

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Now there's Finley hype? Apparently the Top 10 QB prospects will all be taken in the first 50 picks if you believe this hype. Frankly, I do not. Let other teams make those mistakes
  5. Jericho

    Starting QB 2019???

    Yeah, it's kind of funny. Also these quotes about how the Redskins should trade the 15 for Rosen. If that's such a good deal, why aren't other teams doing it? Why not Miami at 13? Giants at 17? Hell even the Titans at 19 have to be in the discussion if this is such a "great deal". I don't really see why anyone should trade a first rounder for Rosen. Doesn't mean someone won't, but I don't see the allure here...
  6. Jericho

    Starting QB 2019???

    If he's free, sure. I saw an ESPN article referencing potential re-draft of one pick over the last 5 years by each team (http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2019/story/_/id/26473482/nfl-draft-do-overs-let-re-pick-fix-mistakes-all-32-teams) and a couple actually changed their pick to Derek Carr. And I'm thinking why? Sure, Carr has been okay. But the Raiders are not good and seem fine moving on from Carr. And he's getting paid a fair amount to be pretty meh. Don't really want to spend $20 million dollars to get the 23rd best QB in the NFL
  7. Jericho

    Starting QB 2019???

    I'm not sure there is an answer this year. Draft class is weak and some in the media are really over hyping some of the QB options (Daniel Jones? Really?). Drew Lock just looks like a bust. In you squint hard enough, maybe you get Joe Flacco. Which is super underwhelming for a Top 10 pick. The only QBs I'd consider in the Top 2 rounds are Murray and Haskins. But both are risky plays as one year starters. So they're far from certain. but they have obvious talent. Just not someone I'd pay to move up to get. Murray's going to be off the table anyway, but Haskins could slide I suppose. So if Haskins is there at 15, I'd do it. Outside of that, there's trading for Rosen. Not a terrible move, but no need to pay exorbitant prices. A second rounder is the absolute max I'd go and even then I'd really want to love the guy to do. Which, as of now, I don't (if it was my job on the line, I'd do a deep dive of Rosen and see what else I'd infd. I just have't done that). So I'd offer a third rounder. Teams always seem to overpay for crappy QBs (Browns giving up a 3rd rounder for Tyrod Taylor to ride the pine last year or New Orleans giving up a third for Teddy Bridgewater to do the same), so not sure that gets it done. If neither of those happen, I'm all for picking a QB in rounds 3-7. But it has to be the right guy offering good value at whatever pick. And we'll have to see how the draft unfolds to know who's there. Just understand that any QB taken in those rounds should be viewed as no more than a back-up. Anything more is gravy. QB is important, but too often teams force a move just to say they did something. Making a bad move is often worse than making no move at all. Sometimes 2020 is the better option.
  8. Jericho

    Starting QB 2019???

    In the history of the league? Sure. In the last 15th years in the more modern era of the game with more passing, better scouting, and now 32 teams (making each round longer)? You'd be hard pressed to come up with 5 guys you'd really want. In fact, I looked. I started with 2004 (15 years ago) and here's who's the best of the best non-first round QBs: (1) Russell Wilson (2012, 3rd round) - I think, by far, the best player on this list. A 5 time Pro Bowler with a possible HOF career. He largely fell on draft day due to size. Something NFL teams no longer seem to care that much about (see Murray, Kyler or even to some extent Mayfield, Baker). So not sure how repeatable a pick like this is. Wilson was a great undersized QB. Seattle identified the market inefficiency of NFL teams over-emphasizing size. Wilson wasn't a first rounder almost entirely because of size. Nowadays teams would likely take him in the first round. (2) Matt Schaub (2004, 3rd round) - 2004 was a deep QB class, also producing Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger. 4 starters out of one draft is virtually unheard of. Schaub started 98 games and made two Pro Bowls. He wasn't great and when the end came, it came fast. But he was a bona fide starter for six years. So that's something. (3) Kirk Cousins (2012, 4th round) - don't really need to explain this one. Redskins fans know about Cousins. Of course the fact he's the 3rd best QB on this list and the Redskins ran him out of town not knowing if he was really worth committing too shows that the odds of finding even someone as good as Cousins seem slim. But 73 starts and several more to come likely mean he'll end up pretty successful (4) Andy Dalton (2011, 2nd round) - I'm still not sure Andy Dalton is actually a good QB. He's started from Day 1, which means 120 starts to date and 3 Pro Bowls. Seriously, Andy Dalton made three Pro Bowls? His numbers aren't really good, but they're not really terrible. He just sort of is. But the Bengals always seem to be looking for something better option and while Cousins just got nearly 30 million a year, Dalton would likely be hard pressed to find a starting job if the Bengals let him go. Dalton seems to represent close to the high water mark of non-first round QBs. HE's not bad, but he's not really someone you want to build around either. (5) Dak Prescott (2016, 4th round) - Prescott's young enough that we don't really know what he is. So he could easily move up this list. He's already made 2 Pro Bowls in 3 years, but is he any good? He basically played the game manager role in his rookie season and helped ride Ezekiel Elliott and the game's best offensive line to decent numbers. Then he kind of sucked in year 2 and half of year 3 until Amari Cooper arrived. And now all of a sudden he's good again. Maybe? No one seems to really know. Maybe he's just another Andy Dalton. Not sucking and putting up decent numbers, but not really a guy you build around. Or maybe he takes that next step in a year or two. We'll see Honorable mentions: - Ryan Fitzpatrick (2005, 7th rounder) - he never seems to a be a guy any team wants to start, but he's started 126 games, which is pretty amazing for a 7th round pick. Of course any team that has him start is always looking for a better option - Jimmy Garoppolo (2014, 2nd round) - people seem to think he's good, but he's started a whopping 10 games in his career to date with very middling numbers. I suppose he could be good, but dude's barely played more than half a season as a starter in 5 years. So you have to show me first - Nick Foles (2012, 3rd round) - Is he a starter? Despite some success, the Eagles decide Sam Bradford was a far better option, the Rams decided anyone was better, the Chiefs didn't even play him, and now the Eagles let him walk again. Of course he did win a Super Bowl. But then again, so did Trent Dilfer. Maybe Jeff Hostetler is a better comp? He's never started more than 11 games in any season and he's never been good for more than half a season (and often is quite bad). So he's still really unproven and 2019 might be an interesting test to see what he really is. Of course that's 7 years after being drafted and on his 5th team. - Colin Kaepernick (2011, 2nd round) - He made it to a Super Bowl and nearly won a Super Bowl, but in reality wasn't that good. Sure, he got blackballed for his protests, but he also made zero Pro Bowls before any of that happened. Simple fact was he was never really that good. - Derek Carr (2014, 2nd round) - like Dalton, he's been a starter since Day 1. Which gives him 78 starts. And somehow three Pro Bowls? Oddly he's only been good for major 1.5 seasons total. He had a fantastic 2016 and at competent 2015. But why is it that he's basically at bottom of any QB rankings and Oakland seems very prepared to move on (even though his contract is an albatross) When you peaked in year 3, it's not a good sign. Bottom line, if Andy Dalton is the idea of a success, it's a very underwhelming plan . You can easily do worse, but you really want to do better. I'd like this better if it was plan C, not Plan A or B
  9. Jericho

    Reuben Foster Will Not Be Suspended!!

    But wait, the Redskins were the devil incarnate for even considering the possibility he might be worth taking a chance on. And now he's not even going to be suspended? Maybe we should ask Jason Witten how he feels about it.
  10. Jericho

    Starting QB 2019???

    Lock's Pros: good guy with a personality Lock's Cons: very inaccurate Those seem to cancel each other out, right? As long as you are a cool guy, accuracy does not matter
  11. Jericho

    Starting QB 2019???

    I'd actually be surprised if one of the 8 guys you listed doesn't fall. i don't know who, but it always seems to be someone each year.
  12. Jericho

    Starting QB 2019???

    I think that King article referenced above is a pretty good analysis of the trade market. It lists 4 teams total, but puts Washington and the NY Giants as the two strong favorites for Rosen. I also like the new car analogy, Rosen isn't worth what he was a year ago. The Giants don't have a third rounder this year, which means they'd either have to give up their second rounder (which seems too high) or future picks to beat an offer of a 2019 third rounder. If the Redskins offer their 3rd rounder (76th overall), the question becomes who is willing to beat that? A number of teams could (Miami, Denver, New England, New Orleans, LA Chargers), but will any of them? Part of that question will be how teams treat the young QBs in this draft. What happens to Drew Lock? Dwayne Haskins? Hell, even Daniel Jones I suppose.
  13. Only if they're not tendered. The Pats tendered Blount a few years back, though that moves was a bit unusual: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19352288/new-england-patriots-issue-rare-9-tender-legarrette-blount
  14. Jericho

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    I guess you never know, but the Redskins never draft running backs with high picks. And I'm talking about in the entire history of the franchise. At pick 59 (which still isn't *that* high of a pick), Guice became the 5th highest RB ever taken by the Redskins in the Super Bowl era. The four head of him were: (1) Ladell Betts (56th overall - 2002); (2) Richard Williams (56th overall - 1983); (3) Reggie Brooks (45th overall - 1993); and (4) Ray McDonald (13th overall -1967). The team hasn't used a first round pick on a RB in over 50 years and only used a 2nd rounder three times in the last 50 years. And two of those were late second rounders. I'm not sure any team in the history of football has ignored the position more in the draft.
  15. Jericho

    Starting QB 2019???

    So basically the equivalent of a high second round pick (depends a little on who's draft value chart you use). I wouldn't do that, but if you really want Rosen it might get it done
  16. Jericho

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Hell, you could make the cutoff the end of the first round and get the same basic results. It's rare for any non first round QB to amount to anything more than a back-up. You don't pick a guy in the 3rd hoping to find a starter. You're hoping for a back-up at best and basically buying a lottery ticket you find then next Kirk Cousins. It's not impossible, but pretty unlikely. You can look at the last 7 picks in the 3rd rounder over the last several years: 2018 - Mason Rudolph (too early to say anything), 2017 - Davis Webb (bust) ,C.J. Beathard (not terrible, but he's never going to displace Garoppolo), 2016 - Jacoby Brissett (a competent enough back-up, but nothing more), Cody Kessler (bust), 2015 - Garrett Grayson (bust), Sean Mannion (he's on an NFL roster, which is something. But he's also proven zilch in his career). You have to go all the way back to 2012 and Russell Wilson to find a bona fide starter. And unless you want to count Nick Foles (debatable) you have to go back to 2004 and Matt Schaub to find another starter. I think every once in a while you have to punch your lottery ticket and take a chance, but I wouldn't expect much. People who think Grier or Lock or Daniel Jones will be starters in this league are likely to be disappointed, unless by starter you mean Blake Bortles. Someone who technically starts, but isn't good. I doubt any of the above guys even ends up as a good as Ryan Tannehill. And while Tannehill isn't terrible, he's also not a guy you really build around or want to be your long-term starter. Every once in a while you have to take a shot on one of these guys, but you don't use a first rounder on them. it's far too low of a percentage play.
  17. Jericho

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    But to who and for what? I doubt the team is looking to trade Allen or Payne. And Settle is a fifth round rookie that barely played. So Settle doesn't have much trade value. That leaves the only DL likely to be moved to be Matt Ioannidis. But let's say you want to trade Ioannidis. Who are you trading to and for what? There really aren't any great WRs in this draft. It's quite possible all of them are available when the Redskins pick at 15. Maybe you have to trade up a few spots it you want a Metcalf or a Hockenson (a TE, but still a pass catcher). So would you want to trade Ioannidis to move up 3 spots in the first round? That seems like a weak return. If you're not trying to move up in the first, are you trying to trade Ioannidis for a later pick? But at that point, any WR you pick is more risky. Not to mention the Redskins have several picks they could use WRs on without trading Ioannidis. I suppose you could try and trade Ioannidis for an established WR. But who's available? Almost anyone of any worth would cost much more than just Ioannidis himself. And I'm not sure there's that much available. Maybe AJ Green?
  18. Jericho

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Still not buying into Drew Lock as a first round pick. A 57 % career completion percentage that drops to roughly 53% against SEC opponents? That's fugly. He seems fine as a player you try and develop, but he has a rather serious flaw that should prevent him from being a first rounder. I feel some team is about to make a huge mistake. I'm hoping its not Washington.
  19. Jericho

    Snyder values Norman's "star power and sizzle" despite coaches?

    This is what I was thinking. What sizzle? I can't say this report is true or false, but Norman has made zero Pro Bowls with the Skins (one overall), plays a non-skill position, and hasn't really done anything that noteworthy. You can criticize that he's overpaid, though it's not my money and its not like the Skins lost Pro Bowlers they could have kept because of it. But if this is supposed to be about Norman's "star power", then someone is doing it wrong. Cause he really doesn't have it.
  20. Jericho

    Starting QB 2019???

    I think it's just ranking and numbers. For example, CBS has him ranked as the 96th best prospect (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospect-rankings/). That's barely inside the 3rd round in the compensatory selections if every prospect went in order. McShay has him at 82, which is more solidly a 3rd rounder. Those are just two rankings and hardly definitive of anything. Of course players don't go in exact "ranking" order. For example, McShay had Kirk Cousins ranked 57th in 2012 and we all know he ended up being a 4th rounder for the Redskins. Most have Grier ranked no better than 5th among QBs. Some may like him better, but most have him behind Murray, Haskins, Lock, and Jones. You can look at QB draft history and most years the 5th QB selected ends up in the 3rd or 4th round. 2018 was a huge anomaly. In 2017 the 5th QB taken was Davis Webb in the late third round, in 2016 it was Jacoby Brissett in the late third round, in 2015 it was Bryce Petty in the early 4th, in 2014 it was Jimmy Garoppolo in the late second, in 2013 it was Ryan Nassib in the early 4th, and in 2012 it was Brock Osweiler in the late second. There's some variance from year to year, but odds are that Grier's ceiling is the third round unless some team just falls in love with him.
  21. Jericho

    Starting QB 2019???

    Pretty much this. A "normal" draft class would produce one NFL starter. Now that starter might be no better than an Alex Smith level talent, which is hardly super exciting. All of a sudden people are acting like there are 4-5 legit first rounders. That's not the case. It's all hype and reality should set in sometime in late April. I hope.
  22. Jericho

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Haskins and Murray are the only real first round QBs here. Everyone else is a second round talent or worse. Doesn't mean someone doesn't reach for one of the other QBs. It happens all the time. In fact, it happens fairly often. But the vast majority of reaches end up busts. So I very much hope the team doesn't go that route as it's a low percentage play. Even Haskins and Murray carry decent risk. Both were just one year starters, which is one of the biggest common factors in QB busts. Doesn't mean Murray or Haskins will bust, but the risk is just higher. Plus Murray has the size concerns. So given all that, these aren't QBs I'd break the bank for. That's a desperation move. Suggestion of trading up to 3rd overall to pick a risky QB that's generally considered a worst prospect than Josh Rosen (who went 10th last year) seems foolish. If the QBs fall and you want to take them, so be it. Maybe, just maybe you try and leap frog Miami on draft day if a guy falls. Otherwise, I think you just take BPA.
  23. There's a few Ols who were drafted high and eventually found some success after a few years, even if it was after a shift of position. Leonard Davis might be the best example of this. Hell, Cleveland seems to think Greg Robinson is finally playable after many years. There still seems to be a decent chance Ereck Flowers can at least be a usable player, so i understand the interest. It's just a matter of cost.
  24. I assume you mean the Bengals, unless we're talking about a different Ross or the Bengals are so bad the Browns automatically get all their picks