Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[carex]

7 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

Well, it was two first round picks. Just like Mahomes was.

 

it's a question of how many you give up and get in return. 

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Sheehan pushing trading a first for Darnold on the radio, I might have to change my listening habits until we get a QB to maintain my sanity.

 

His refrain is the same one I hear all the time:  The Jets stink and Darnold was a high draft pick so case closed.

 

IMO that's ridiculous.  Sell me on him as the player versus the abstract idea that a high draft pick playing for a bad team gets a complete out for playing poorly.  Sell me on the actual player.  Otherwise there are plenty of cases of high draft picks busting for bad teams.  Almost evey high round bust (and there have been plenty) played for a bad team and nope almost none of them eventually succeeded where they were at or moved on to another team and became successful.  Rosen, Gabbert, Ponder, Manuel, Locker, Bortles, Sanchez on and on. 

 

If we want reclamation projects that were high draft picks heck at least we maybe could get Winston, Trubisky for free or Mariota cheaper.  I don't see why Darnold gets special privileges just because the Jets were bad.

 

Darnold had a 63% completion percentage for his last year in college which isn't that hot in college terms. His big problem in college was INTs and fumbles. OK lets go to the NFL.  His completion percentage has been under 60% -- that's pretty hard to do when you got one of the lowest YPA in the league at the same time.    And his problem in the NFL in addition to that has been INTs and fumbles.  Shocker. 

 

https://thejetpress.com/2021/01/10/ny-jets-trigger-trade-sam-darnold/

Darnold finished his 2020 campaign throwing for just nine touchdowns to 11 interceptions. The 23-year-old only completed 59 percent of his passes and a sub-par 6.1 yards per attempt. He ranked last in QBR, with a horrible 40.7 rating.

 

 

In his first three years, Darnold has been extremely inconsistent. He only averaged 184 yards per game this past season and at times looked like nothing more than a game manager.

 

Darnold regressed drastically this season. His mechanics, pocket awareness, and decision making did not improve under former head coach Adam Gase and that became painfully obvious as the months went on.

Darnold still makes terrible decisions that led to awful interceptions. He also missed a stretch of games for the third straight season — he’s yet to put together a 16-game season.

 

The former No. 3 overall pick will be going into his fourth year in 2021. The Jets would have to decide if they want to pick up his fifth-year option which will be worth up to $25 million. Sticking with Darnold would be an unnecessary financial risk.

 

 

 

He did get into specifics about how he was interferred with and if you think that was nothing, OK, to each their own. 😀   But nope if you wanted him to rip the QBs he had in house, he didn't do that aside from saying he knew Kirk wanted out and hence wanted to trade him but he wasn't allowed to do it. 

The Bengals suck too but Burrow was clearly a differnce maker for them, spreading the ball around and making plays. Darnold is one of the reasons the Jets suck. That's the difference for me. No to Darnold for anything more than a 5th round pick....

[JamesMadisonSkins]

For the record, I think I would list the weapons (and their expected APY contracts) as follows:

 

1. Chris Godwin (17)

2. Curtis Samuel (8)

3. Hunter Henry (10)

4. Corey Davis (11)

5. Allen Robinson (21)

6. JuJu Smith-Schuster (17)

 

I know there are plenty of others out there but these are the names I expect to be available and realistic/legitimate targets. FWIW, I don't have GOlladay here because I expect he gets the tag.

 

I subscribe to the "get the talent and figure out roles from there" textbook. Godwin and McLaurin are similar, but I would build around that, although I do think Samuel brings a bit more position versatility and that's why he's so high on the list for me.

Edited February 5, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[HigSkin]

I think the Darnold thing has a lot to do with coaches who see flashes (his one or two per game) and think they can fix him like Trubisky, Lock, Winston and whoever I missed.  It's like pick your poison in that group.

 

https://thejetpress.com/2021/01/18/ny-jets-gamble-sam-darnold-risk/

 

The NY Jets are not going to pick up Sam Darnold‘s fifth-year option. General manager Joe Douglas has until May to officially make that decision, but it’s a given that he won’t. The question is, will Sam Darnold still be a member of the NY Jets by then?

The cost of picking up Darnold’s fifth-year option would be in the neighborhood of $25 million for the 2022 season. Darnold is under contract with the team in 2021 and is slated to make $9.7 million in what would be the last year of his rookie deal.

 

Not only will the Jets not pick up the fifth-year option, but any team that trades for Sam Darnold won’t either. The truth is that. For better or for worse, Darnold has become a reclamation project. Darnold will be playing on a one-year prove-it deal, no matter where he plays in 2021.

If the Jets decide to keep Darnold, they will effectively be putting him on the hot seat.

In effect, the Jets will be giving Darnold one last chance to prove that he is worthy of being a franchise quarterback.

 

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by HigSkin

[kingdaddy]

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

For the record, I think I would list the weapons (and their expected APY contracts) as follows:

 

1. Chris Godwin (17)

2. Curtis Samuel (8)

3. Hunter Henry (10)

4. Corey Davis (11)

5. Allen Robinson (21)

6. JuJu Smith-Schuster (17)

 

I know there are plenty of others out there but these are the names I expect to be available and realistic/legitimate targets. FWIW, I don't have GOlladay here because I expect he gets the tag.

That (17) next to Smth - Schuster, is that how many million per year you project him to command? If so, there's no way I'd pay him that much money. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

That (17) next to Smth - Schuster, is that how many million per year you project him to command? If so, there's no way I'd pay him that much money. 

 

Yep, per Spotrac those are the ballpark APY contract values. They have Robinson at 20, Godwin, JuJu and Golladay at 17. Davis at 12, etc.

Edited February 5, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[DJHJR86]

Darnold, Mariota, and Carr would not be that much of an upgrade (if at all) over Allen/Heinicke, IMO.  There is no free agent quarterback or one who can be obtained (reasonably) via a trade that excite me.  I'd rather they draft their own guy.  And if that means rolling with Heinicke/Allen, so be it.  Allen is only 24 after all.  

[JoggingGod]

20 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

Darnold, Mariota, and Carr would not be that much of an upgrade (if at all) over Allen/Heinicke, IMO.  There is no free agent quarterback or one who can be obtained (reasonably) via a trade that excite me.  I'd rather they draft their own guy.  And if that means rolling with Heinicke/Allen, so be it.  Allen is only 24 after all.  

Calling Carr not much of an upgrade to god damn Kyle Allen is insulting 

[pcbothwel]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I don’t know why people keep watching Darnold to try to convince themselves it’s a good move or a possible move.

 

It’s not. If it happens I will have very significant and vocal reservations. 
 

 

 

Yeah... Darnold seems to be a huge bust. But to play devils advocate...

Another athletic QB that actually transitioned to QB in college. Plus athlete with with good, not great arm and former top 10 pick.... Ryan Tannehill.

Tannehill was older his rookie year than Darnold is right now. That has to mean something.

 

Im not saying Darnold will last another 2 years in the league, let alone lead a team to the AFC championship game... but maybe Sam needs his Mike Vrabel.

[mistertim]

16 hours ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

I changed it to “Most,” I forgot about Mahomes.  He’s the exception to the rule, most the time it’s not going to work out when trading at least two first round picks. It’s worse than gambling. 

 

So your take seems to basically be "When it works out, trading picks is fine. When it doesn't it's not."

[heyholetsgogrant]

8 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

So your take seems to basically be "When it works out, trading picks is fine. When it doesn't it's not."

That's not what I'm saying...Go back an read my previous comments, it's when you start trading 2 FULL first round picks (no swaps) is when the ROI is worse than gambling.  The odds are terrible. I think history backs this up. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiygqj1hNPuAhVOFVkFHRUeAzIQFjABegQIAxAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.espn.com%2Fblog%2Fnflnation%2Fpost%2F_%2Fid%2F280540%2Fthe-nfl-players-traded-for-two-first-round-picks-mack-joins-list&usg=AOvVaw0zykof3QArOJX-7uAy3L99&cshid=1612538267414613

This is why I'm glad we didn't trade for Stafford and hope we don't trade a farm for Watson. 

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by heyholetsgogrant

[KDawg]

11 minutes ago, pcbothwel said:

 

Yeah... Darnold seems to be a huge bust. But to play devils advocate...

Another athletic QB that actually transitioned to QB in college. Plus athlete with with good, not great arm and former top 10 pick.... Ryan Tannehill.

Tannehill was older his rookie year than Darnold is right now. That has to mean something.

 

Im not saying Darnold will last another 2 years in the league, let alone lead a team to the AFC championship game... but maybe Sam needs his Mike Vrabel.

Sure. But a first rounder? No. 
 

It’s mismanagement of resources. And it won’t happen.

[The Consigliere]

17 hours ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

I think its fair to say no one is off the table, but if Houston is going to be drunk and want Chase, two 1st, and perhaps another later 1st day pick, it's a no. What you forgot to leave out is, if just had competent QB play this year we would have won AT LEAST 10 games. Even with our brutal schedule next year we can still win 10 games with competent not elite QB play. Our defense is that good. Look at Stafford, Cousins, Watson, Carr, etc, all of them are top 10 QB's when it comes to metrics, but their defenses are terrible. Did any of them make the playoffs this year? Both Tampa and KC has top 10 defense. I don't think it's as cut and dry as just a QB.

 

I don't disagree. Chase is a guy I'd have on the table for only 3 guys: Watson, Lawrence, and Fields. 

 

For Watson, they don't get multiple firsts period, that's a first and a #2 overall player who is a confirmed hit and has 4 cheap years left. 

 

For Fields, I think I'd offer Chase, and a '23 3rd and '22 1st for the Fields pick and a '22 2nd. 

 

For Lawrence, I would offer multiple firsts and Chase for Lawrence and a future 2nd, but I don't think there's any chance in any world where we get lawrence, that's just a marker for me. 

 

I think adding chase basically cuts the pick cost of a trade by at least 50% which is why I like it. 

 

I also fully recognize that there is zero chance they include Chase because teams never think that way about picks that just hit, they only think that way about picks that may be a miss a year after making them. 

 

It's just lazy thinking, but I'm 100% sure Chase won't be included, again, I'm basically positive, however I also think that's fundamentally flawed management to not consider how adding chase could help team building by cutting the costs of a move. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

That's not what I'm saying...Go back an read my previous comments, it's when you start trading 2 FULL first round picks (no swaps) is when the ROI is worse than gambling.  The odds are terrible. I think history backs this up. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiygqj1hNPuAhVOFVkFHRUeAzIQFjABegQIAxAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.espn.com%2Fblog%2Fnflnation%2Fpost%2F_%2Fid%2F280540%2Fthe-nfl-players-traded-for-two-first-round-picks-mack-joins-list&usg=AOvVaw0zykof3QArOJX-7uAy3L99&cshid=1612538267414613
 

 

Honestly, I'm talking more about the draft than trades for veterans, as trades for vet QBs has such a super small sample size (mostly because top QBs almost never get traded). IMO Cutler was WAY overpriced and two 1sts was absolutely idiotic for such a "so-so" QB. I was super against it at the time on here and I'm glad we didn't get him.

 

The "one 1st rounder is fine, but two 1sts isn't" seems somewhat like a somewhat arbitrary line to me. I can understand being loathe to do so, but if you truly think the QB you're after is your guy, then sometimes you pull the trigger. I'd certainly prefer to not give up two 1sts to move up, but if you're moving way up (like we'd have to) then it's going to be much harder to do so without it.

 

If you hit on the guy and he becomes a top franchise QB then the two 1sts are a paltry price to pay. Of course, if you miss, then you're underwater for a while. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I screened out the Darnold stuff to help preserve my mental health. 

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/washington/post/_/id/41004/washington-qb-search-from-deshaun-watson-to-alex-smith-nothing-is-off-the-table

 

The Washington Football Team's quest for a quarterback did not end with a failed attempt to land Matthew Stafford. That pursuit could last for a few months -- and then some.

Washington offered its first- and a third-round picks in the 2021 NFL draft to the Detroit Lions for Stafford, but lost out to the Los Angeles Rams. One source said Washington offered no players. The deal shows Washington will be aggressive if there's a quarterback it likes; but it won't go overboard.

 

...I like trades, but I don't like coming away from a trade feeling it was one-sided," Rivera said. "If we had dove into what happened with the Detroit trade [the Rams sent Detroit their third-round pick in 2021, first-rounders in 2022 and 2023 and QB Jared Goff], I don't know how I would have felt about it. I'm ambivalent to it. But I don't think that's something I would want to do. If you get what you want, but you don't have what you need, then you create problems. If you can't protect the quarterback, or if you don't have playmakers around him, then what's the good of having that guy?

 

...Rivera said he has talked with Smith, and bringing the veteran back as the starter remains a possibility because there's a solid chance Smith wants to keep playing. If Washington can't find an upgrade over Smith and is confident he can hold up over a 16-game season, it will stick with him. The team would build up other areas of the offense -- the line and wide receiver -- and possibly draft a quarterback to develop, then aggressively pursue another quarterback in 2022.

 

...The Las Vegas Raiders have two quarterbacks -- Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota -- who will draw interest. It's hard to imagine them trading Carr, though one source said the expectation is if Watson is indeed available, he could see the Raiders aggressively pursuing. Other reports have echoed that thinking. Keep this in mind: Washington defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio had a strong relationship with Carr during his three seasons as the Raiders' coach.

Also, the Raiders are at least $10 million over the salary cap. Mariota carries an $11.35 million cap hit, quite expensive for a backup (and about half of Carr's number, which is low for a starter of his caliber). But Mariota's injury history could scare teams and, one source said, he would be someone you bring in to compete for a job rather than be the unquestioned starter.

It's also hard to see San Francisco moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo unless it gets Watson.

 

...Among the pending free agents are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston, Tyrod Taylor and Andy Dalton.

One NFL coach said he would add Jacoby Brissett's name, too, because his arm strength could help open up offensive coordinator Scott Turner's offense in Washington -- if he won the job. Another league source said Dalton can be efficient and has proven that, with a good defense, he can win double-digit games. Cam Newton will be free, but Rivera had a chance to sign his former Panthers player last offseason and declined.

Though none of them represents the sort of quarterback Washington wants long-term, Winston offers the best hope because of his age (27) and past production (5,109 yards, 33 touchdowns -- and 30 interceptions -- in 2019). However, New Orleans coach Sean Payton told the NFL Network the Saints want him back.

 

Kiper said he thinks five quarterbacks will be drafted by the time Washington picks at No. 19. And if any top QBs remain, it's not a certainty Washington would pick one. It's just as likely -- or perhaps more likely -- it would select an offensive tackle, a wide receiver or trade the pick for more draft assets. That could bring Washington future draft capital that could help it acquire a quarterback in 2022.

 

The problem with drafting a QB in the middle rounds: few develop into future starters. Kiper said no quarterback in the middle rounds even projects as the same level of prospect as Kirk Cousins was when Washington drafted him in the fourth round in 2012.

Washington could always trade up if a QB starts to fall; they love mobility and Ohio State's Justin Fields has it, plus he has the makeup they like. But at what cost? North Dakota State's Trey Lance is also mobile, but he's considered far more raw than the others.

All of it underscores why finding a quarterback could be a long process.

"Nothing," Rivera said, "is off the table."

Edited February 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Snagletooth]

3 hours ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

I haven’t watched much Darnold, but I looked at a 2020 highlight video.  His mechanics are terrible for a 4th year QB. 

 

Foot work really stuck out to me in a bad way.  Very choppy, awkward looking.  Maybe Gase wants his QB bouncing on his feet but Darnold just looks unnatural.

[heyholetsgogrant]

Report: DeShaun Watson would not waive no-trade clause for Vikings - Daily Norseman
Poor Minny.
Deshaun Watson's Ex-Teammate Says QB Has 'Interest' In Trade To Denver (tmz.com)

Edited February 5, 2021 by heyholetsgogrant

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, Snagletooth said:

 

Foot work really stuck out to me in a bad way.  Very choppy, awkward looking.  Maybe Gase wants his QB bouncing on his feet but Darnold just looks unnatural.

 

And we've just been through the rodeo of a Qb who struggles with accuracy because of bad footwork.    the thing that really gets me about Darnold's accuracy issues is it combined with a really low YPA and according to PFF he was dead last in attempt percentage of passes over 20 yards.  So these struggles with accuracy are actualy with shorter-easier passes. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

I don't think people realize how bad Darnold was last year. He was basically Haskins.

[El Mexican]

1 hour ago, DJHJR86 said:

Darnold, Mariota, and Carr would not be that much of an upgrade (if at all) over Allen/Heinicke, IMO.  There is no free agent quarterback or one who can be obtained (reasonably) via a trade that excite me.  I'd rather they draft their own guy.  And if that means rolling with Heinicke/Allen, so be it.  Allen is only 24 after all.  

 

X2

 

I have doubts about Allen, but Heine clearly showed he at least deserves a fair shot to be next year's starter.

Draft some decent QB and groom him.  No need to reach.

 

Paying for a high-profile QB or exchanging the whole farm for a rook is exactly what we've seen during the last 20 years around here.

 

How's that worked out? 

 

Rivera wants to change that. We ain't Tampa that just needed Brady to become a winner, nor KC. Those teams took at least 5 years of solid building to be competitive. Hopefully RR keeps some sanity within the organization and let the pieces fall where they may.

 

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by El Mexican

[Fresh8686]

One thing I think would be constructive to focus on is the reported belief from our FO that they could have been a 9-10 win team with Alex or Kyle Allen being the full time QB this past season. That tells us where they believe their floor to currently be and what type of QB they are willing to spend on and which ones only offer marginal improvement over what they currently have.

With that said, I don't think Sam Darnold fits that equation. He is more a reclamation project than someone who can get you over that 9-10 win threshold that they are looking for.

[FootballZombie]

32 minutes ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

Report: DeShaun Watson would not waive no-trade clause for Vikings - Daily Norseman

 

Now I REALLY want to see the 9ers pry Cousins away. Kill two NFC birds with one stone.

[DJHJR86]

1 hour ago, JoggingGod said:

Calling Carr not much of an upgrade to god damn Kyle Allen is insulting 

 

Does Kyle Allen wear guyliner?  Checkmate.

[Darrell Green Fan]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

You realize that 100% of people are on board with this right? 100%. Every single person wants a SB every single year. Every single person wants a franchise QB on our team every single year. All of us. 

 

This is just not true. We still have fans referencing Trent Dilfer or Gibbs' 3 rings with 3 different QBs, there is still a large population of the fan base that still believes the way to go is build a great roster and then slap on a mediocre QB.  This still boggles my mind but that opinion is pretty active.