The Consigliere

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About The Consigliere

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  • Birthday 12/13/1974

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  • Redskins Fan Since
    1979
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    Art Monk
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    Alameda, California
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    Writing, Reading, Travelling, Music, Film, Athletics, Comedy etc
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  1. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    It's about efficencies now, it's basically QB+Moneyball+F.O.+HC. The QB angle has always been paramount, but it was really rule changes over the past two decades that made the QB more important by several orders of magnitude, the add in the discovery of efficiencies and inefficiencies in how games are playcalled etc. Everything still matters, but the QB and Passing game, and Passing D are way way way more important then the run game, or just having a great defense. I still think balance is best, but you have to have an elite QB too, balance w/o one isn't nearly as imposing as it used to be.
  2. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    1. No, Alex Smith road the coat tails of superior elite producers. 2006: 35th 2007: 49th 2008: N/A 2009: 27th 2010: 33rd 2011: 14th: Beginning of the Niners playoff run on the back of their defense, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree and eventually Kaepernick. 2012: 9th: Splits time with Kaepernick. 2013: 21st 2014: 19th 2015: 15th The first of four consecutive seasons of at least 15 starts for Kelce and Maclin's 1000 yard debut season for the Chiefs. 2016: 11th: Tyreek Hill Arrives 2017: 7th Kareem Hunt Arrives 2018 efficiency/DVOA: 27th It's not a coincidence that the only years he produced anything were years he either played with elite defenses and quality surrounding offensive playmakers who produced for multiple QB's in SF, or when the chiefs surrounded him with multiple pro bowl talent who'd also produced elsewhere (Maclin, and superstars like Kelce, Hill and Hunt). How does a QB go from the 90th-95th percentile in one season (2017) in terms of efficiency #'s to the bottom quartile of the league in efficiency (bottom 5-10 league wide amongst starters). Simple, you take Alex Smith away from the Superstars and suddenly Alex Smith is nobody, while you give Mahomes Alex Smith's weapons, and he obliterates expectations proving the Chiefs right in drafting him and kicking Smith to the curb. Alex Smith didn't win squat, he was carried, it shows in how he performed w/lesser talent around him? Did he ever carry teams like Manning and Luck did with the Colts (the second both went down, the teams totally collapsed, the second Luck was back, the team suddenly turned from bottom 5 to a division winner)? Of course not. The tale is in the tape. The years when he had middling or worse talent? 2005-2010 (I give him a pass on '05 since he was a rookie and the team was a disaster, if you care to know how he did, 46th overall in DVOA), 2013-2014, 2018, he produced <censored> all. 35th, 49th, 27th, 33rd, 21st, 19th, 27th. You really think a QB that's 27th in DVOA is responsible for the team being 6-4 in games he started? I don't, and regardless as to whether you do or not, it's worth noting his wins were against: Arizona: 32nd Best Record in the NFL Green Bay: 21st Best Record in the NFL Carolina: 17th Best Record in the NFL Dallas: 6th Best Finish in the NFL NYG: 27th Best Record in the NFL T.B.: 28th Best Record in the NFL Basically a whose who of dumpster fire squads in 2018, and zero playoff entrants save the pre-Amari Cooper Cowboys (they of the 3-3 record going into the game as opposed to the team that went on to go 8-3 the rest of the way after acquiring Cooper). I really object to the idea that he lead anyone anywhere. The Chiefs were a bad defense away from a Super Bowl Title with Mahomes as a raw 2nd year guy setting records left and right, compare that to Alex Smith's 35th in the league performance as a sophomore with significantly more experience as a rookie than Mahomes had. Hmm, was Alex Smith that bad (yes, I'm from the Bay Area), was the surrounding talent an ingredient in those problems, of course. Was Alex Smith producing those losses just as you credit him as having produced the Chiefs wins in '17? No, of course not. He stunk, but that team was going to stink no matter who was under center. He didn't produce wins. If you look at his career the trends are obvious. Dump a gigantic pile of talent in his lap, and he can take a team the playoffs where he'll then almost always lose, often in agonizing fashion, because the way he plays football, just good enough to lose (Walsh's tag on Steve Deberg) won't cut it in the playoffs. Needless to say, the idea that he produced these wins can clearly be disputed because the wins produced, and his corresponding performance went up and down (very very very down) w/the surrounding talent. He was no Baker Mayfield, no Ben Roth, no Tom Brady, no Peyton or Andrew Luck etc who could take an old tired collection of chickens and turn it into coq au vin, nope, if you gave him doody, he produced doody, if you gave him middling talent, he produced middling talent, and if you gave him superstars, he gave you a top 10 season followed typically by an epic choke in the playoffs. He didn't produce anything, he rode the coat tails of the talent his GM's provided him with. This is precisely why I evicerated the trade when it was announced 14 or so months ago. Anyone acquainted with his track record knew that '17 was an outlier byproduct of the elite talent around him (#1 in target separation that year), and everyone knew what he did when he wasn't surrounded by superior talent which was exactly the scenario he was falling into w/us. I despised the trade as it was a classic face saving panic move (much like giving the replacements rings a month later) to blunt the negative publicity of Cousins signing elsewhere, and it was based on horrible process. Alex Smith outlier season, old, give him a crazy extension as if his 2017 is repeatable with bottom tier playmaking talent in Washington, or that he was responsible for the production rather than the superstar players that would surely produce just as well w/Mahomes (they did, and then some). Like many others I predicted that all of that tops in the league to top 5 efficiency would fall off a cliff once he didn't have Tyreek, Travis, Kareem and Albert Wilson to work with and sure enough that's exactly what happened: AYA: 2017: 13th 2018: 24th True Completion Pct: 2017: 2nd 2018: 30th Play Action Completion Pct: 2017: 1st 2018: 26th Red Zone Completion Pct: 2017: 50th 2018: 24th Deep Ball Completion Pct: 2017: 2nd 2018: 27th Pressured Completion Pct: 2017: 33rd 2018: 31st Production Premium: 2017: 4th 2018: 31st True Passer Rating: 2017: 1st 2018: 34th Anyone, anywhere whose supposedly responsible for "producing wins" isn't going to see his production fall off the face of the earth because he simply changed teams. Especially if you're giving him a 6-2 record (looks like 6-4 to me, but whatever). So what happened here? He's producing wins despite playing like complete trash? No, as per usual, he's winning games based on his situation, not his talent, he books wins when the team was healthy and playing a garbage opponent, and he lost as the team got less and less healthy and when they played tougher opponents. He lost his superstars and suddenly he wasn't elevating anyone, he was sinking right along with the garbage around him. He wasn't a Tom Brady leading a Patriots team w/zero playmaking HOF's other than Gronk, and largely nothing but anonymous guys before they arrived there. He wasn't Baker Mayfield making magic out of Jarvis Landry and a bunch of nobodies. He wasn't Andrew Luck producing an elite season w/TY Hilton and a bunch of merde. He was Alex Smith, being Alex Smith, playing ugly football when the talent around him sucked. Again, was he producing the wins, or was the defense and running game and OL producing them? I think it's pretty obvious who was producing wins, and it wasn't Alex, just as the second he left the Chiefs, they had their best year in 25 years. It wasn't a coincidence. Ditto leaving the Niners and suddenly they advance deep into the playoffs and a Super Bowl.
  3. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Never a good plan. Even any run of the mill dolt could just pull up Alex Smith's profootballreference page to see his 2018 season was a colossal outlier and not repeatable, it was entirely a product of Kelce/Hill/Hunt/Wilson et all. Any deep dive into his efficiency #'s showed it. We bought high on a QB who was about to be past it, and was never a better than sub league average starter in terms of production. He was a captain check down option that was a poor fit for Richardson AND Doctson, was nearing the end of the line anyway, and we gave up a day 2 pick and a corner coming off a breakout season. It was incredibly foolish, and was laughed at HARD in many circles, especially the ones I really respect and try to learn from. It was just god awful. I appreciate the second paragraph, a beautiful piece of writing there. I just don't agree w/your approach though I think it underlines how our F.O. works and what it will choose to do. They aren't forward thinking, they're reactionary and a joke. They shouldn't care about getting more eyes on the team in 2018 or 2019, they should be focused on good process in team building. Build a winner, people come, do anything else, and you can't reliably predict interest or attention year to year, period. They should realize they're murdering their brand by avoiding at all costs accountability year to year. People are growing sicker and sicker of everything Redskins, it's that Aints/Bucs 1980's apathy metastasizing and considering the limbo Boulez fandom is in, fans are already pissed to begin with, knowing there is zero hope for Basketball for the next half decade, the Nats squandered six years of a quality roster failing to win a single series, and while Caps fandom finally paid off last year only delusional fans think it will last long term, the team is aging out and this might be the last hurrah of true contention (and if they win tonight, a huge if, they have a 1998 styled friendly path to the Stanley Cup Finals w/only one other top 4 seed having won its series in the East). Maybe they think now is the time to strike, but they're flat out wrong, this will take years plural.
  4. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    It's really sad. I actually think Haskins has league average potential, that he's a solid QB prospect, but trading the farm for the guy is absurd. You don't win in this league w/league average QB talent unless you're the Ravens. It's the hardest way to consistently contend, period, it's the 2005 Draft redux. What a nightmare. I am so sick to death of being a fan of a team that's run by fools. It's a truism that many of us here, while not necessairly able to handle the nuances of the cap, or league affairs could run circles around this F.O. when it comes to drafting, and trades. It's really frustrating, and in saying that I own that the team is significantly better at drafting then that 1988-2008 era.
  5. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Just call it the Blake Bortles Corollary. I can buy into that theory
  6. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Great debate between Jon Moore, Matthew Friedman and Matt Kelley on the top bust candidates and best WR options in the '19 draft (most recent podcast): it starts around the hour mark (N'Keal Harry Checkmate episode) Three of my favorite writers/analytics people these days.
  7. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Combine was horrific, market share #'s/dominator are excellent (90th percentile), breakout age sucks (27th percentile). I have no opinion. I haven't paid him any attention.
  8. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Broad jump? That's really odd. What I've read and heard from the people I trust, is that basically, combine isn't as significant with WR's as it is with RB's. Basically as long as your within certain thresholds, you're fine as long as you've got the breakout age and dominator (dominator to a lesser extent, and I agree, I don't like how heavy TD's are in model, as TD's are not a reliably sticky stat). It's RB where the combine really underlines thing. The analytics side of things likes Brown a lot btw, and as I said earlier, Brown has an excuse for his ho-hum breakout age, and Butler does not. Brown went the JUCO route so it was not possible for him to have an early breakout age no matter what he did, and when you add in the fact that he did explode as a JUCO player, and that he did immediately produce for Oklahoma suggests if he had gone to college, he probably would've produced early unless he was held out due to the weight issue. As for later round guys, you'd kinda be surprised. The NFL is still missing on guys a ton that the geeks have figured out. You know who hated Marlon Mack and Aaron Jones in 2017? Tape Guys. You know who loved them? Analytics geeks (and me). I was screaming bloody murder when both were still available on day 3, then we went with the bowling ball, and I just prayed that his freshman year tape was indicative of his talent, rather than his slug like play in junior year (maybe he was hurt?). Alas, we got the slug and the Colts and Pack stole Mack and Jones. Still curious about Brian Hill and McNichols, the latter seems to be a dead prospect, Tampa Bay's incompetent F.O. kicked him to the curb and he couldn't take advantage of interest from Kyle Shanahan. Hill has bounced around but looks the part. He's a guy who could surprise with an opportunity like Michael Turner did years ago. But yeah, there are guys I like for day 3, and I agree, you aren't going to find perfect anything, but there are always guys that are interesting and worth a look. I've been studying insanely heavily since 2015 just due to Dynasty, and these were my day 3 WR's I was interested in: Hits (in Bold) Italics (Made Team) 2015: Crowder Smelter Diggs Bell McBride 2016: Malcolm Mitchell (injury derailed career) Ricardo Louis Bad Mike Thomas Charone Peake 2017: Dede Westbrook Josh Reynolds Josh Malone Robert Davis Isaiah Ford-can't remember if he stuck or not. I think he stuck for at least a season. 2018: Coutee Callaway-loads of potential, hot and cold rookie year with drops & now buried on depth chart Hamilton Watson Lasley Cain-Exploded in preseason/training camp only to tear his ACL. ESB-Showed signs of promise down the stretch. R. James A. Tate (TE Hybrid) T. Quinn Take that for what it's worth, of the guys I listed, the guys I really really loved: Malcolm Mitchel-Looked like a monster hit until the red flags from college came home to roost (major injury history) Josh Reynolds-in spot starts he was studly Antonio Callaway: 1st round grade, 10 cent head. D. Hamilton-Excellent slot guy. K. Coutee: Slot heaven. J. Watson: Player comps are elite WR's, huge markers in terms of production, breakout age and combine. Could blow up under Arians. ESB-1st round grade in the summer of 2017 T. Quinn-Born to be a slot guy. Maybe Josh Malone who I thought and still think, could be a late blooming stud. Word was he was close to passing Ross on the depth chart last year but draft capital derailed that dream. Honestly a great move would be trading up in round 2 if Neal and AJ Brown fall to the bottom of round 1 or into the early 2nd. That would be getting top 15 overall WR talent to me. I like Deebo and Isabella, though Deebo is a really odd prospect, not sure how he'll be used.
  9. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Np, the sense I get is the Alabama effect will lift him into round 1. He's also got some interesting qualities, he's got that PFF stat (nearly 50% of his runs were for TD's or 1st downs), and he's got people raving about contact balance, and if they're right, that was the exact same trait that had people keeping Hunt high up their boards two years ago after his crummy combine. But yeah, Sanders is just the better prospect. The knocks, fumbling (generally not a sticky stat if taken from such a small sample size), and dominator/breakout age (who was going to take Saquon's job from him? No sin in failing to pull a JK Dobbins on Barkley) are not relevant. The positives (all 76th percentile or better combine #'s, including an 83rd percentile agility score and the passing game chops to prove it) are just overwhelming. I don't know how you take a Josh Jacobs ahead of Sanders. Jacobs couldn't beat out Damien Harris, not exactly Saquon Barkley. I don't expect Sanders to be a monster at the next level, just a good starting rb w/passing game chops to disguise play calling decisions and limit roster spots needed for pass catching specialists at RB. We'll see how he does at the next level, but my guess is that he ends up being one of those classic 1250-8 TD's rushing, and 30-50 catches a year, no problem.
  10. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Butler, Harry and AJ Brown were all easily at their most productive as Big Slot. Butler's production was heavily tilted towards Big slot usage, not outside usage. Harry is probably the most impressive, has more 20+ yard receptions than Hollywood Brown, and Hribar Charted an in game sequence in which he had 9 consecutive catches running 9 separate routes from distinct personal groupings. I am a big fan of Harry, and he can do a lot, and it wouldn't surprise me if he excelled at X, but after what he did at ASU, it makes sense to line him up all over the place. He knows how to do it and can produce that way. Hribar went as far as saying NFL teams would be straight up fools to draft Butler and use him as an outside WR. To paraphrase/quote him, "He's a better option to line up inside and run up the seam. He lead the nation in yards per route run from the slot (5.2), 5 of his 9 TD's came from the slot, and he averaged 24.9 yards from the slot. That's where he won in college, the big slot position. If you're an NFL team subjectively drafting him based on the tape, and you don't use him heavily in that role, you're an idiot." As for Metcalf. terrible breakout age, dominator stinks, agility score stinks, and he can run 2 or 3 routes tops. Doesn't make a lot of sense to take him. AJ Brown ran 54% of his routes from the slot, Reception Perceptions Matt Harmon's take on him (Both Matt Kelley and Rich Hribar have him as the #2 WR in the draft) Link: https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/reception-perception-a-j-brown/ , " Having Brown in a usage plan that has him take a majority of his snaps from the slot would certainly allow his future team’s interior passing game to be maximized. However, I’d contend that Brown will not need to be a strictly inside receiver at the next level. When tasked with defeating press coverage, he showed a variety of release moves to get free off the line. He can also get free in the vertical game. Brown’s buildup speed is obvious and he is perhaps the best receiver in this class at shaking defenders at the stem of his routes. That will make him a chore to cover on deep posts and corners. He’ll wreck seems that way. Indeed, the best role for Brown is likely a continuation of the resume he’s built as a big slot receiver. However, this is a player that can shine playing flanker at a near 50 percent rate in two-wide sets and may even be able to survive as an X-receiver on occasion, if his release technique continues to develop. Should he operate as a primary slot receiver, he won’t be one of these short-area exclusive threats. He’s a player that will do damage down the field, furthering his case as a player to maximize that slot spot.
  11. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    We blew it when we passed on James last year. Blew it BADLY. At least Payne isn't a bust, but he was never likely to be anywhere close to the prospect James was, illustrated the perils of laser focusing on a positional need w/your first, rather than value. In terms of this year, I like a lot of guys in that trade down (25th or lower) to 2nd round area. I really like Thornhill, and Adderly. It sounds like we love Savage, but we just signed a guy to a ridiculous contract that basically does what Savage does, so I don't entirely understand the desire for Savage? Hooker seems interesting as well. I don't understand Zierlein's take which seems to imply a lack of explosivness, speed, and athleticism. 83rd Percentile Speed Score. 63rd Percentile Burst Score. 84th percentile Agility Score. What is he talking about? I suppose he's seeing things on film that alarm him, but the combine says he's full of it, that he has all those explosive traits in spades.
  12. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Don't get it. The pro day should've murdered his stock for once and for all. Sanders is just a much, much, much better prospect (granted the fumbling will always scare off teams).
  13. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Probably the single funniest part of the trade is that Clark did far worse supposedly, in a domestic violence incident that got him booted off Michigan in his draft year, then what Kareem Hunt did. However there were three key differences for the Chiefs. #1: Hunt was caught on video doing it. This also seems to be the only thing that gets the NFL to act on anything. #2: Clark plays a far more vital position that is signficantly more difficult to address. So for the billionth time, when teams say they care about character it was, is, and will always be total <censored>. Btw, I've come to really not be concerned w/it anymore. Once Kirby Puckett got outed as a flat out monster, and Eugene Robinson fumbled away his man of the year award while getting arrested the night before the super bowl he was set to start in it really put the lie to the character talk for once and for all. We don't know these guys, we never will. You never have any clear idea who is a bad actor and who is not, arrests or not. The only thing I know for sure is that the league and your favorite team are ALWAYS lying when they talk about character. They only care about it when it effects them w/bad publicity AND w/their bottom line win total. otherwise they couldn't give less of a <censored>.
  14. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    The problem with the comp is that it's not a reasonable comp. Jackson was killing defenses as a fresh out of high school 18 year old kid catching balls thrown by a total dog bleep QB in 2005. Brown's production is age 20/21. Hill actually has the worst track record of the three, never breaking out, despite playing against garbage defenses. One gets the sense he just wasn't used properly in college (plus he was a complete and utter scumbag so maybe he was suspended a ton, he was actually guilty of much worse transgressions in college than Hunt has been as a pro). But yeah, if you got DeSean Jackson production by drafting Brown, and say an injury history no worse than Jacksons? Absolutely that's worth the top 15 pick. And Tyreek Hill? That woudl be worth a top 5 pick (especially if he has none of the character flags).
  15. The Consigliere

    2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    B. Granted I don't want him period, but I have to disagree here. He's a consensus 1st rounder. He's being invited to the green room. Basically that means that the NFL has been informed that it's quite likely he's picked off the board at some point between 1 and 32. Can we trade down and still get him? Maybe. But he could also go before our pick, or soon after. If you want him, you probably can't trade down very far. I do not want him, so I wouldn't worry about any of this. Despite that though, he's a risk to go off the board at any time. I get the sense that he may not be #1 on every team's board, but he is either 1 or 2 on virtually every teams board. As such, he's going to go either before us, to us, or after us. Trade down at your own risk. Last point: He's got the lisfranc, and he'd basically be the smallest successful WR ever in the modern history of the NFL. If you go back far enough, you probably find other little guys like Anthony Carter, but that's going back 3 decades and most analytics groups are looking essentially at the NFL over the past 15-25 or so years, basically depending upon the group, they're usually focused on the post-Plan B era, or the Post-rules changing Indy whining to the league about the Patriots era (where they tightened the heck out of rules governing what can be done to WR's and QB's etc). There are guys that I'm scared bleepless will bust, and wouldn't take period, D.K. Metcalf scares me that way (he could be a megastar, but he also could lack the study habits to learn how to run a varied route tree and develop his game), guys like Hakeem Butler (Didn't do a damn thing until the end of his career at Iowa State, that's a red flag that concerns me as much as Brown's size. Whatever one may say about Brown, he produced. The second he arrived in Oklahoma he was straight up murdering secondaries left and right. I don't know what his market share #'s were at college of the canyons, and because of the defenses, said stats are tossable, but after arriving at College of the Canyons looking like a sixth grader, he posted a line good enough to place him 13th amongst all JUCO transfer prospects in the '17 transfer class (50-700something-10 TD's, I posted it earlier today). Hakeem Butler had no NFL caliber competition at Iowa State, and he played in the Big-12, which produced gobs of crazy pass catching, and throwing stats, and he still didn't do squat until his final year. That's like 100 red flags. I would not be surprised if Brown is hugely productive when he's on the field, I'm just sincerely worried about how often he'll be on the field, plus he comes in with an injury red flag. So I'd pass unless he was there in the mid to late 2nd (and he won't be). Again, have no problem envisioning a John Brown like career for him, minus the Sickle Cell trait issues (am assuming he doesn't have that issue), but the lisfranc and the size concerns have me 1000% against it.