The Consigliere

Members
  • Content Count

    1,718
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About The Consigliere

  • Rank
    The Role Player
  • Birthday 12/13/1974

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
    http://

Profile Information

  • Redskins Fan Since
    1979
  • Favorite Redskin
    Art Monk
  • Location
    Alameda, California
  • Interests
    Writing, Reading, Travelling, Music, Film, Athletics, Comedy etc
  • Occupation
    Teacher

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    McLaurin was a miracle for us. He beat the odds (basically about 10-15% of productive receivers have sub 45th percentile breakout ages-he never even broke out to begin with). Do you really want to try to beat the odds again in a draft legit littered with prospects with outstanding profiles? On the outrageously attractive end of things you have Lamb, Jeudy, Shenault, and Reagor, on the got most of the bases covered but are missing something feature you have Jefferson, Edwards, Tyler Johnson, Aiyuk, Pittman etc and I'm just touching the surface. I get Ruggs is going to be elevated a ton because of "Alabama", "40" and the TD's, but he never broke out period, and he never seized a big part of their offense, it's exceptionally rare to hit on guys w/that profile, we just got lucky last year with McLaurin, I would not bet on getting lucky that way again, especially in a draft loaded with guys with far more complete profiles. I don't mean to ---- on so many people's preferences, but there are statistical models to help us shave off prospects that actually have a far less reasonable chance of hitting then others and we should be using them. Again, doesn't mean it's always right, it isn't, it misses like anything does, but it increases the odds of avoiding busts to use the models substantially. Over the years I've hit big on guys pushed down like AJ Brown, Chris Godwin, Curtis Samuel, Juju, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Stefon Diggs, basically about 85% or so of the guys currently successful. Some of the guys that slipped through the cracks include Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin. Michael Thomas (had the market share, not the breakout age), I could keep looking, last year there was somewhere between about 6-8 guys of the top 45 or so that had god awful breakout ages. Thomas and McLaurin are interesting, both having been disguised by the plethora of targets at elite schools issue (the one caveat you mention with Ruggs that is valid, to some extent, aint exactly easy getting targets at Alabama, a one time favorite of tape people, Zay Jones, showed how market share can be deceiving if your just playing at a school where there's no competition for targets (otoh, his breakout age was revealing, a pretty weak 52nd percentile).
  2. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Also worth remembering we snagged Caleb Wilson off of the Cardinals. Guy was rated in the top 4-5 of the TE class last year by plenty of people I respect. Sneaky good option though the draft capital cost and the fact we got him on a free suggests he will need to impress immediately to make any headway. Hentges is no athlete, but he's also interesting, and appears to have some talent despite the lack of athleticism (a la Dissly).
  3. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    I've been aware that it will be awful since '18. Big dynasty player, and acquainted with Devy people. They smoke out the caliber of the classes usually 2 years in advance, minus the odd go backs like Etienne, Hubbard, Harris etc. They knew about the WR quality of '19 and '20 years in advance, and the same for the horror of the RB classes in '16 and '19 years in advance as well. The same dread has been around for this TE class since at least the spring of '18. Next years class looks sketchy at RB, and only marginally improved by 3 guys going back to school in '20. On the positive side, it does look good at WR again and QB if Haskins prove to be garbage.
  4. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Please for the love of god no. Zero breakout, market share was 17th percentile. YUCK. Awful. No, no, no, no. We already have a very fast WR in McLaurin. If you want a fast WR there are plenty in this draft that are fast AND good. Straight pass.
  5. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Yech. I pray your wrong in reference to TE. WR I'm fine about. Deepest class since '14, but this TE class is like the '16 RB class, straight garbage. A bunch of guys are going to be taken because they're the best of an awful crop, rather than actually talented. Don't make that '16 RB mistake again, pass, and pass hard.
  6. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    This is just truly horrible news to me. After three elite TE drafts, where we drafted nothing other than the scrub Sprinkle (who was a known in line mediocrity at the time with character red flags over that Belk Theft), we get the worst draft since at least 2016, if not longer, and now we're looking? Look, every year people try to shine the garbage positional classes in a draft if it's a need, but don't let them fool you. Six months ago the only TE viewed as worth a damn in the class was Okwuegbunam, since then his star has fallen while others have risen but the class itself remains blech. I don't see any reason at all to go after any of these guys. Makes a lot more sense to me to go after one of the guys from the '17/'18/'19 classes via trade, they're closer to productivity (TE's typically take 2-3 years to become consistently useful receiving options), and we have more information on how they've transitioned to the NFL. Other than Trautman, I'd pass on all these guys, and we currently don't have the pick necessary to get Traut.
  7. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    See I don't care a whit about any of that. Is he going to be productive or not? If he is. I want him. If he's not. I don't. Interviews can help with the rest. Honestly, intangibles can be important, but they aren't everything, especially when we're talking about 20 and 21 year olds. I'd love Deebo's mental make up, but if he wasn't incredibly productive, it wouldn't matter at all. If I can get both, I'll take it, if I can get productive that's what I want first. He's a great prospect with more room to grow. We'll see what happens. I don't expect us to get him anyway, he'll be off the board long long long before we have a chance to select him. And you probably know already that I don't really read much into the rest of it anyway. Distrustful of tape scouting. The whole Arizona trade idea is such a no brainer Im astonished anyone would eschew it. It's free assets. We aren't competing for squat this year, it's like when the browns ate Osweiller's contract in exchange for a draft pick from Houston. Easy money. You take, you don't ask questions when a team is doing something that stupid.
  8. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    He's just a really hard prospect for a lot of people because he was one of the highest ranked prospects period in his recruiting year, then did not explode exactly with FSU, playing behind literally a bottom 5 OL out of 130 or so ranked by those guys with PFF. He put together #'s, but not special #'s, so you end up trying to figure out, is he that guy that people thought was the best RB in his recruiting class (or 2nd depending upon which recruiting rankings people you read), or was he just overrated. He is one of the rare examples of a guy, like his FSU compatriot Dalvin Cook, where I just watched him play and buy, buy, buy, buy, and I don't believe at all in tape scouting, so perhaps as per usual it's bias. But I am a big believer in his talent, and view him as someone who would've been ridiculous behind the monster OL's at Wisconsin, Georgia and Ohio State. Instead his OL was horse ----, and he struggled to even get out of the backfield before getting pulverized for much of his FSU career. I think he'll be a great pro if teams just give him the ball and believe in his talent. The combine will be a big deal for him. He needs to kill it there in terms of the 3 cone and the forty to help his stock and quiet some of the nay sayers.
  9. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Yeah, lol, we are total and complete opposites. I like Reagor. Not ready to firm up views on the WR's, but for now, I'd be: Tier 1: 1.Lamb: 77th Dominator, 81st breakout age Tier 2: 2. Reagor: 74th Dominator, 84th breakout age 3. Jeudy: 36th Dominator, 81st Breakout age 4. Shenault: 68th Dominator, 66th Breakout age Tier 3: 5. Tee Higgins: 50th dominator, 96th Breakout age 6. Tyler Johnson 98th dominator, 90th Breakout age 7. J. Jefferson 51st dominator, 75th Breakout age Tier 4: 8. B. Edwards 94th Dominator, 100th Breakout Age 9. KJ Hamler 57th Dominator, 87th Breakout age 10. B. Aiyuk 82nd Dominator, 26th Breakout Age 11. M. Pittman 60th Dominator, 39th Breakout Age 12. H. Ruggs: 17th Dominator, No Breakout Lots of reshuffling post-combine, I do expect the draft to inflate the hell out of Aiyuk, and Ruggs, while likely to punish Edwards, Tyler Johnson, and Higgins if his combine sucks. So that will also cause reshuffling, not so much because it changes my view of guys as just it changes my view of how much draft capital is necessary to get them. Based on breakout age, Aiyuk, Pittman, Ruggs are all just "DO NOT DRAFT" for me. We got our miracle in McLaurin last year, he dramatically beat the odds (basically about 1 out of every 8-12 WR's producing at a top 45 level in the league have breakout age's below the 45th or so percentile, it's quite rare. Doesn't mean a great breakout age means you'll be good, just means if you scratch off guys w/bad breakout age's automatically, you'll be right the vast majority of the time. Personally, I wouldn't consider taking a WR until round 3 or 4 considering the cost a lot of these guys are likely to be in terms of draft capital. Best values come draft day to me are probably going to be Tyler Johnson and Bryan Edwards, but I think Harmon does the same thing as they do, so I'm not sure it makes sense to do that. Not sure which guy I like better, but if either were there in round 4, I'd gladly punch the ticket and take them (and I suspect at least one of them will be, maybe both-pending the combine). Also worth noting the '21 class looks potentially deep as well (and awful at RB). '
  10. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Yay. Was talking about this last year w/regards to our 1st. Generally speaking you need to pay attention to hit success rates and cap costs and be efficient w/your draft capital and not need based impulsive.
  11. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    !?!?!?! No offense, but good lord man, you mustn't be acquainted w/the decades of futility drafting that built this multi-decade long run of futility? I think there's plenty to recomend keeping it simple and just taking Young, but you need to note how awful this team has been at drafting until quite recently? Remember, Casserly was so bad in the nineties he actually made Cerrato look good, although too many people forget that (Casserly went 0 for the nineties until '99 (although there are a few Lang fans).
  12. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Depends what you mean on the latter point. I use analytics w/evaluating offensive playmaking positions, I haven't looked deep into other methodologies yet though I'm curious what they're doing over at player profiler with things like DB's. They've repeatedly smoked out elite DB's a year or more advance of tape scouts. Tape scouting in my view is far less worthwhile. Riddled with confirmation bias, bias in general, and no agreed upon standards and a track record of being largely useless in evaluating college prospects. When the best you can get out of it is merely hitting more on prospects exclusively based upon quantity of picks and nothing else, the methods just don't work. I'm very impressed with player profiler and rotivz not impressed at all with the tape people.
  13. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Depends upon how he tests. His 40 coming out of high school was god awful. We saw how fall Harmon fell with a bad 40. You test higher than 4.59 you are gonna fall, possibly very hard. He was 4.7 something out of high school, players improve those out of high school typically, but he's also a lot bigger too.
  14. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    Edwards seems like a day 3 value in the same vein as Harmon last year. To me they're very similar, but testing will be revealing about any potential for superior athleticism.
  15. The Consigliere

    2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

    FA will tell us a lot including whether or not the Giants are likely to go OT w/that pick. If they don't sign anyone, to me, that's a huge smoke signal they're gonna give their young QB another lineman rather than their defense the best player left on the board. As for the ongoing back and forth about Simmons and Young. It's a very interesting debate, but to me, at the end of the day, you need to look at FA cost, draft capital efficacy, and determine what's the smartest use of your available $$$. In '18 I felt the smartest use was Derwin James and totally lost my ---- when I felt we panic picked D. Payne. That was more about James being a potential franchise changing talent in the secondary, a guy who was a tier 1 prospect in that class while Payne wasn't remotely close to that. I remain irate about that pick. But when you've got a situation like this, w/players w/analogous overall talent, Young actually a touch better probably, and you know that guys like Young, if they prove out, are worth an insane amount of money in FA, and are virtually impossible to acquire via the draft w/o having been utterly god awful during a season, you pretty much have to make the pick. The only thing that gives me pause is my concern that we are automatically going to lose one-three key pieces of the front seven that will be in place when Young arrives before he even starts the third year of his contract. Kerrigan is gone this offseason or next, and one of Allen or Payne will be gone thereafter, maybe even both. You can only spend so much money on your DL and edge rushers. Does it make more cap sense to trade down, collect some nice picks, and hope Simmons falls in our lap? Is it worth that kind of risk? Simmons and keep at least 2 and possibly all 3 of our DL's? Or Young, and lose 2 or 3 of Kerrigan-Ionaiddis-Allen-Payne? Add in the fact that if we tried to trade down and get Simmons (and got him) we'd also be adding key draft pieces either this year, or this year and next to help us w/a potential QB trade up. I'm 1000% convinced we'll just bring our "Chase Young" card straight up on draft day. But, if you dig deeper, I can see plenty of reasons why we shouldn't, and they have little to do with whose better, Simmons or Young, and everything to do with the rest of the defense and the long term rebuild itself.