Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[carex]

2 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Herbert produced a top 15 season despite playing with a defense that was a mess and an offense that had no playmakers play a full 16 game schedule and all but one only managed a max of 11 starts. Despite that he was excellent for a majority of the season (did have a dip if memory serves around late october to late november), and unlike Burrow, he didn't take a billion hits a game behind horrific blocking (5.1% sack rate to 7.3%). 

 

I get nervous when QB's are brutalized by incompetent line play in front of them. 

 

Lastly though, seriously? You wouldn't take Herbert now over Young? I'm astonished at that. Young is awesome, no disagreement there, but a locked in franchise QB? There's just zero question what matters more. I guess you're quibbling more with my depiction of Herbert's current status. 

 

but, it Herbert had been drafted by the Bengals he would have been behind the horrendus OL and then his sack rate should have increased

[Conn]

36 minutes ago, carex said:

 

well disagree.  But why would you switch Herbert and Burrow?

Herbert just had the best rookie passing season ever for a QB, and it wasn’t off the back of a run-heavy scheme or gimmicky offense. What exactly do you disagree with. Thinking that isn’t worth more than Chase Young is just silly. Of course it is. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by ConnSKINS26

[Andre The Giant]

 

[carex]

18 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Herbert just had the best rookie passing season ever for a QB, and it wasn’t off the back of a run-heavy scheme or gimmicky offense. What exactly do you disagree with. Thinking that isn’t worth more than Chase Young is just silly. Of course it is. 

 

look, I'm happy going defense first and nothing's going to change that. 

[Ashburn Dave]

2 hours ago, Mooka said:

 

The top D-Lineman in the game and maybe the best overall player in the NFL; Aaron Donald, has 0 Superbowls wins. (0-1)

 

If you go down the top edge rushers, you'll find maybe a Superbowl here or there. Maybe. (Mack = 0, Bosa Bros = 0, Watt Bros = 0, Myles Garrett = 0, Chandler Jones = 0, Za'Darius Smith = 0, Danielle Hunter = 0, etc)

 

And not saying Barrett/JPP or Jones/Clark are some scrubs, but they're in the Superbowl obviously because of their QBs.

 

 

I'm not advocating trading Chase Young, or any of our D-Line, but if you're not winning Superbowls in this era without a QB. 

 

 

I'm not saying that Chase is the next LT or Ray Lewis but I wonder if the Giants or Ravens would have even entertained the thought of trading either one of them for a potential franchise QB, especially after their first year.

[Malapropismic Depository]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Kay Adams, she's good looking, and knows her football too.  

 

Last week, I saw her on GMFB. And on day in particular, it must have been Casual Day on GMFB, she literally looked like she just rolled out of bed, didn't even touch her hair or makeup, or even clothing, and just showed up at the studio, as is.

Her hair was all frizzy, and sticking every which way, and clearly was not intentionally styled that way, but totally looked like bed-head and no make-up, and just wearing a grey long-sleeve sweat-shirt, like she might have even slept in that as well, that was oversized and reached all the way past her hands. And looked like she didn't have a care in the world, just trying to wake up.

And still...was one of the most gorgeous things on all of TV.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Malapropismic Depository]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The two criticisms of Heinicke seems to be

 

A.  Short sample.  1.25 games here where he was good.  1 game in Carolina where he was bad.

B.  Durability

 

I am a Heinicke guy as for category A.   I'll go nuts and blow off the Carolina game and ride with 1.25 games and say he's not the next Matt Flynn, Scott Mitchell, etc.

 

 

Surprised people here haven't seen that show, its been on for years.  

 

I totally get that it's a small sample. But what a sample it was. If we're going to put weight on how small the sample was, let's put an equal amount of weight on just how impressive it was.

A playoff game. Against Brady. Against the Bucs. And one of the best defensive lines, and one of the best defenses overall. Against a team that is now in the Super Bowl. And may very well win it.

Everyone knows the numbers he put up of course. Then there's the way he extended plays, his mobility, his ability to quickly read defenses. His accuracy. His guts.

And came within 62 yards from tying the game with 1:51 left (includes the 2 yards needed for the 2-pointer)

That game meant everything to the Bucs and Brady. It was the furthest thing from a meaningless game. So you know they put their all into it. So it wasn't a fluke, that can be written off.

All that, with little preparation, and not even knowing for sure if he'd start until the same day.

All that, with the weakest offensive weapons in the NFL. And with some of the worst Pass-Blocking.

And that's just part of the story.

But all of that, has to count for something.

As for the bad game he had in Carolina ; it's very possible that that performance is in his past and buried, and he's matured beyond that by now.

I don't think it's fair to hold poor performance against a QB, IF it was while he was still young and developing, and he is now learned from and matured from that.

Also, some players are just late bloomers. That could also explain why he was Undrafted. And scouts don't always get it right. That's why we have 1st round busts all the time.

If we have numerous busts, it makes sense to have numerous "misses"

What matters, and the only thing that matters, is the QB he is today. Not what his shortcomings were, in yesteryears.

I'm not saying TH is the next Kurt Warner, or even a lock to be a starter, but there is plenty of realistic reason to be optimistic about him.

 

Thank you for your time

 

Oh, and I'm guessing the reason so many people havn't seen Kay Adams and GMFB, is because it's on NFL Network.

Speaking of the show, I wanna shout out to Peter Schrager. I love that guy. Kyle Brandt, too. Oh, and Nate Burleson too. The whole gang on there is great.

And if you're into NFL archives and nostalgia, check out Peter and Kyle's regular segment called "Run It Back", where they rewatch, re-live, and re-analyze big games of the past, that have been forgotten.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Malapropismic Depository

[Andre The Giant]

Not sure how accurate...

 

 

[ODU AGGIE]

Several folks have referenced Heinicke's loss to Atlanta in his only other start. What you may not know is that ligaments in his left arm were torn in that game and required surgery following the game. Yet, he had it taped up and put in brace and finished the game. One way to look at that is that, yeah, he got injured. Another way to look at it is he toughed it out despite a painful injury that did impact his performance and did complete 62% of his passes. Here is a highlight video of him in that game. What you see is Heinicke being Heinicke. He took the Panthers to a TD on the opening drive. We will never know, but I suspect the final result would have been different if he had not been injured. My point is the performance  you see in this video is so very consistent with what we all saw in his partial quarter against the Panthers and his game against the Bucs. He has the skills to be a starter in this league. WFT can give him that opportunity to play the way he does and come in with 10 or 11 wins -- all at a bargain basement price. If the Team doesn't do it, someone else will.

 

https://www.panthers.com/video/best-plays-from-heinicke-s-first-career-start-against-falcons

Edited February 5, 2021 by ODU AGGIE
added data

[Vanguard]

47 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

Last week, I saw her on GMFB. And on day in particular, it must have been Casual Day on GMFB, she literally looked like she just rolled out of bed, didn't even touch her hair or makeup, or even clothing, and just showed up at the studio, as is.

Her hair was all frizzy, and sticking every which way, and clearly was not intentionally styled that way, but totally looked like bed-head and no make-up, and just wearing a grey long-sleeve sweat-shirt, like she might have even slept in that as well, that was oversized and reached all the way past her hands. And looked like she didn't have a care in the world, just trying to wake up.

And still...was one of the most gorgeous things on all of TV.

She’s cute for a tiny chick.  I don’t really check for her, but it would be interesting to see how she looks all dressed up, or when she’s trying to show off.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, carex said:

 

but, it Herbert had been drafted by the Bengals he would have been behind the horrendus OL and then his sack rate should have increased

 

But he wasn't, so he hasn't had a year where he was brutalized and then eventually knocked out for the rest of a season with a serious injury.

 

As much as Burrow has the higher grade going into the '20 draft after that '19 season, Herbert isn't carrying forward with a season of shellacking's that can damage a QB's future in the way Burrow was and he also didn't sustain a season ending ACL/MCL injury. 

 

Herbert jumps ahead of him both because of the health angle going forward and because Herbert hasn't endured a year of getting smashed in the way Burrow was. 

 

Burrow is now damaged by his first professional season. 

 

Herbert wasn't in any significant way physically (via injury) or potentially mentally (by getting slaughtered every week). In fariness, Herbert's OL wasn't great or even good, they were barely adequate, but still, Herbert was pressured a touch under 30% less per game than Burrow was, and he was sacked a full 1 sack per game fewer. 

 

Herbert comes out with a great season and no lingering issues in terms of injury or getting bashed around non-stop, while Burrow comes out with a serious pair of knee injuries, and did get bashed around non-stop to the point where people were actively talking about "we don't want this guy getting knocked out for the year because the Bengals OL is straight trash for weeks, and then that's exactly what happened" a la Luck. 

 

So yeah, I agree that Herbert would've been hit by the same things that would've been out of control, I don't blame Burrow for what happened, he just got drafted by a trash team with a horrible OL (but some legit weapons), and it cost him a serious knee injury and the potential for serious pocket paranoia issues when you see phantom sacks happening left and right due to inept blocking. Herbert managed to avoid that, and that, combined with his performance, elevates him above Burrow, at least for now. 

[PartyPosse]

Seeing how ga-ga people are going because of Taylor’s good game against the Bucs is wild. This is some straight up Brock Osweiler fangirling 

[Skinsinparadise]

59 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

I totally get that it's a small sample. But what a sample it was. If we're going to put weight on how small the sample was, let's put an equal amount of weight on just how impressive it was.

A playoff game. Against Brady. Against the Bucs. And one of the best defensive lines, and one of the best defenses overall. Against a team that is now in the Super Bowl. And may very

 

 

It is impressive.  But I get those that talked about other dudes who looked insane too in short samples at QB and ended up busts.  I get the detractors on this because there have been plenty of flashes in the pan.  But yet, like I said many times, I am with the loons  who will run with the short sample and say screw it and he's likely the real deal as a player.  i've put up as much pro propaganda on Heinicke on his thread as anyone.  I think I've gone far enough on the deep end for the Heinicke crowd.  I've said many times I'd run with the 1.25 sample and I've seen enough.   So I am plenty balllsy enough on the Heinicke stuff 

 

59 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

What matters, and the only thing that matters, is the QB he is today. Not what his shortcomings were, in yesteryears.

 

 

To me I go back to the same analogy I used before about this.  It would be like me spending an afternoon with a close friend's girlfriend for the first time and me telling my friend that's the girl you need to marry and he tells me back trust him -- he's spent 3 years with her so he knows she's not the one.  I can't go back to him say look dude you are wrong, you might know a ton more about her but I have a better feel for it now than you do. 

 

My point is Rivera/Turner/Hurney go way back with Heinicke.  They know a lot more about him than you do or I do.  If they are sold the sun and the moon hangs with Heinicke, I'll be right there with you selling him on this thread as the next Aaron Rodgers or whatever.  But when I hear JP Finlay say Rivera sees him as a backup, then that's what i am running with for now.  He knows more about the dude than I do.  We wouldn't know squat about Heinicke if it weren't for Rivera in the first place. 

 

31 minutes ago, ODU AGGIE said:

Several folks have referenced Heinicke's loss to Atlanta in his only other start. What you may not know is that ligaments in his left arm were torn in that game and required surgery following the game. Yet, he had it taped up and put in brace and finished the game. One way to look at that is that, yeah, he got injured. Another way to look at it is he toughed it out despite a painful injury that did impact his performance.

 

Thanks for that story. Speaking for myself it sells me off Heinicke more than brings me in.  I liked what i've seen from him as a player.  My concern with him is can he survive physically in the NFL.  Hearing him admit he's under 6 foot and someone else say (forgetting whom) he's under 200 pounds -- that's a concern for me.   The notion that he couldn't get through his one game at Carolina without getting hurt brings home that concern.  Yeah I got no doubt he's a tough dude. 

 

But yeah to your point, i like his moxie, mobility and he seems to have that it factor.  But physically he looks like a dude who would be split in two if he took a big hit by a linebacker.  I do share your enthusiasm for his play.  I think he has that it factor.  He is a fun watch.  But I worry about whether he can get through a game or two let alone a full season, tough for me to see him easily as a starter.   The idea that two beat guys said they heard the team is concerned about his durability is the kicker for me. 

 

If he could figure out a way to add to his frame or do something along those lines and if they are convinced he can endure a full season, I'd be on board.  I am taking my cues on Heinicke from Rivera. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

What about Frerotte's debut against the Colts 26 years ago. I still remember that damn game, thinking, "Thank God, Heath's a bust, but we nailed Frerotte," should have known better after my love affairs with Jay Schroeder and Cary Conklin's potential failed horribly (never really a Humphries Truther which is hilarious considering he made a Super Bowl). 

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Seeing how ga-ga people are going because of Taylor’s good game against the Bucs is wild. This is some straight up Brock Osweiler fangirling 

 

Definitely "Cult of Colt" level nuttiness. 

 

'Temple of Taylor' maybe?

[actorguy1]

Mentions Panthers as a candidate. That would be big for a possible trade up, just have to get up to 9th to get in front of the Broncos. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I am actually somewhat easy on Heinicke on the short sample size because I saw some traits I really liked in that game.   But my bottom line is a short sample is hard to judge, its a heck of a lot though easier for Rivera/Turner to judge it since they saw the dude in practice for years.  If they don't see him as a starter than neither do I.  Simple as that. 

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommytomlinson/2013/10/08/matt-flynns-14-5-million-game-or-the-dangers-of-small-sample-size/?sh=31027faa1cb8

Matt Flynn's $14.5 Million Game, or The Dangers of Small Sample Size

So the starting QB against the Detroit Lions was Matt Flynn, a fourth-year backup who had started just once in his career. In the snow at Lambeau Field, Flynn started with a 7-yard TD pass to Jordy Nelson. Then he threw an 80-yarder to Ryan Grant. Then two more to Nelson, one more to Driver, and finally the game-winner to Jermichael Finley. When it was over the Packers had won 45-41, and Flynn had thrown for 480 yards and six touchdowns -- both franchise records. Only 21 players had ever thrown for more yards in an NFL game.

 

...The NFL season is so short that it's hard to get a firm grip on how good a player really is. In baseball the at-bats stack up. In basketball the shots accumulate. Subs eventually get a chance. But in football, the backup QB might get one moment in three or four years to prove it on the field. Matt Flynn was so convincing, that New Year's Day in Detroit, that everybody thought he had to be good. Maybe he will be one day. He's only 28. But some players are great enough to light up the league for years. Matt Flynn might have been a bottle rocket. It's awesome for a second, then it's gone.

2 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

 

Mentions Panthers as a candidate. That would be big for a possible trade up, just have to get up to 9th to get in front of the Broncos. 

 

I am rooting for the Panthers to get him.  i want them out of the way more than any other team as for vying for other QBs.  Tepper seems determined to go aggressive as needed to get a Qb this off season.   in short, they seem willing to use their top 10 pick to outbid teams without one.

[The Consigliere]

17 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

What about Frerotte's debut against the Colts 26 years ago. I still remember that damn game, thinking, "Thank God, Heath's a bust, but we nailed Frerotte," should have known better after my love affairs with Jay Schroeder and Cary Conklin's potential failed horribly (never really a Humphries Truther which is hilarious considering he made a Super Bowl). 

 

17 out of 32. Clearly I was a cheap date in 1994. 

[Commander -JB-]

My final verdict is to roll with Taylor Heinicke & Kyle Allen next season.  Draft a QB on the second day if anything.  Don’t mortgage the future trading for a QB.  There’s only one guy worth trading for and that’s Deshaun Watson.  But the price would be so steep even that wouldn’t be worth it because we don’t have the extra draft capital like other teams.  Continue to build through the draft.  This team still has holes all across the field.  Do it the right way!

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

21 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Seeing how ga-ga people are going because of Taylor’s good game against the Bucs is wild. This is some straight up Brock Osweiler fangirling 

This typically occurs with folks that follow a guy from college to the pros, a la Colt Brennan.  This is actually mild compared to him, when we had all these Hawaii folks showing up to tell us about how Colt was the god of QBs.

 

Sure, we have a few folks here still buzzing off the playoff game, but I think for the most part reality has set in and people realize the likelihood that he's our guy moving forward is very slim.

 

I say this as someone who loved everything about TH's performance for us and certainly would welcome him back to camp.  

[Acworth skins fan]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I don't think anyone on this thread isn't a Heinicke supporter.  But for me I want whatever Rivera wants.  And that goes double for the guys he has in house.   I figure he would have a zillion more data points on his own players than we would especially for a guy like Heinicke who he had in two different stints.  I've not yet gotten the impression that he thinks he's the QB1.  but I buy that he likes him a lot as a backup.  If it feels like that narrative changes than I will change with that.

 

The two criticisms of Heinicke seems to be

 

A.  Short sample.  1.25 games here where he was good.  1 game in Carolina where he was bad.

B.  Durability

 

I am a Heinicke guy as for category A.   I'll go nuts and blow off the Carolina game and ride with 1.25 games and say he's not the next Matt Flynn, Scott Mitchell, etc.

 

But hearing they have durability concerns and are also looking for a different starter got my attention.  That to me is a strong 1-2 punch.  And to my eyes yeah Heinicke does look like having a Colt Mccoy kind of physique who can be split open by a big dude crushing him. So that's my concern about him.

 

 

 

Surprised people here haven't seen that show, its been on for years.  

Tried a few times to watch GMF. Hack show to me. 

[TheShredder]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

If he could figure out a way to add to his frame or do something along those lines and if they are convinced he can endure a full season, I'd be on board.

I answered this before. So, what height and weight is going to make people more confident and can Heinicke come into camp with stature improvements to off-set injury concerns?

First, he's the same stature as Drew Brees.  Second, to prepare for a season as NFL QB starter (expected to play every week), if I was his trainer, I'd want him at #210-#215 entering camp. Assuming I had 6 months to accomplish my task, I'd incorporate a PT program that starts at the core muscle groups and shoulder and back accessory muscles.  This is to prevent injury.  Imagine a built in torso wrap and shoulder supports via this PT.  I'd have him eating in a calorie surplus until 3 months before camp with 2x protein macros. His resistance training would include full body compound movements and regulated long toss with a weighted football.  Achievable gains for a highly trained athlete would have lean sustainable mass increase at 5-8#.  I'd want him to maintain BF% as high as possible before any speed loss.  I could definitely get him to #215 ~15% BF going into camp.

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by TheShredder

[dyst]

So if Eagles trade Wentz are they going with Hurtz or likely now a QB prospect in the draft 

[TheBlueIndian]

I know I am in the minority here but i am hoping Alex comes back for another trip around the sun. I know he wasn't great but with another off season of grinding he can still help us win some games. Whether as a starter or backup. You know hes going to be ready and he still has something to prove.  I think it was the Detroit game or maybe New York   he was slinging it all over the place and making CSims look like Randy Moss. At the very least he will be a steady hand in the locker room and a good mentor to TH and maybe a 3rd rnd rookie. 

I had heard Allen was giong to likely be on the PUP at thr start of the year so we could stash him there until TH or AS get banged up.