Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Koolblue13]

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

This post is almost a perfect combination of material to buck up @Koolblue13's guy and apparently Jay Gruden's guy too at the expense of the QB I want the least. 

 

I've said before I'd easily go Winston (even though he's not my top FA choice if we went with a FA) over Darnold. 

 

https://nesn.com/2021/02/patriots-mailbag-are-jameis-winston-or-sam-darnold-possibilities-at-qb/

 

@MarkJohnBennett
There are top 12 drafted QBs available. What is it about Jameis Winston that caused him to be drafted #1, but no longer a hot prospect now?
It’s pretty crazy, right?

Matthew Stafford gets dealt for two first-round picks, a third-rounder and Jared Goff. Sam Darnold reportedly could command a late first-round pick. The reported asking price for Derek Carr is two first-round picks. Meanwhile, Winston signed a one-year contract for $1.1 million with the New Orleans Saints as a free agent last offseason.

Here’s how those quarterbacks rank (out of 35 passers) in EPA+CPOE (expected points added plus completion percentage over expected) since 2015:

Winston: 14th
Carr: 17th
Stafford: 19th
Darnold: 35th

 

Here’s where they rank since 2018 (out of 26 QBs):

Carr: 10th
Winston: 14th
Stafford: 18th
Darnold: 26th

 

Winston’s 30 interceptions (which EPA accounts for) in 2019 don’t help, and they couldn’t have come at a worse time before the QB hit free agency last offseason. That season also was an anomaly. Winston had thrown 15, 18, 11 and 14 interceptions in his first four NFL seasons. Winston has a 1.38:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to Darnold’s 1.15:1 mark. Winston (3.4 percent) and Darnold’s (3.2 percent) interception rates are similar.

 

It just feels like there has to be some bias involved here, right? How could Darnold, who’s been absolutely awful over the first three years of his career, be considered more valuable than Winston when every possible metric says otherwise? It doesn’t make a lick of sense.

It seems like the Saints are looking to hold onto Winston this offseason, so his market could heat up in free agency.

 

He’s certainly worth a flier and should be an NFL starter based on his first five seasons in the league.

One more factor here: Winston went 26-of-46 for 334 yards with a touchdown in his one game against New England. Darnold has a 46.4 passer

rating in his three starts against the Patriots. And one of those came while Darnold was “seeing ghosts” 10 days before Halloween in 2019.

 

Maybe not the sexiest option at QB for the Patriots in 2021, but if the Jets were to go in a different direction at QB themselves, what do you think is reasonable compensation for Darnold? One of their 4th round compensatory picks?
ESPN’s Adam Schefter predicted this week that Darnold would garner a late first-round pick in a trade, so that should remove him from any consideration. I know Darnold hasn’t been in the best situation, but he has essentially been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL since entering the league.

Darnold might be worth a third-round flier. I don’t think a team other than the New York Jets could go into the 2021 season with Darnold as their guaranteed starter, however.

It's not easy to throw 30 picks in a season without losing your job. Gotta throw 5k and 30 TDs to pull a feat like that off. 

 

I want Winston in the Maroon and Black next year. Let's get our great defense on the field early and often.

[Dark Acre]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

It's not easy to throw 30 picks in a season without losing your job. Gotta throw 5k and 30 TDs to pull a feat like that off. 

 

I want Winston in the Maroon and Black next year. Let's get our great defense on the field early and often.

Winston is the guy that I'm genuinely curious about.  Farve threw a ton of picks.  Was it Woody Hayes who said 3 things can happen when you pass and two of them are bad?  Winston went 30/30 so if some QB guru could reduce the second 30, even without increasing the first 30 (b/c, you know, "Gibson breaks free!  30, 20, 10, TD!"), you'd have a capable QB.  BTW, a pick, per se, is not the negative equivalent of a TD.  It may be returned -- usually not -- but all drives must end.  

[Koolblue13]

5 minutes ago, GothSkinsFan said:

Winston is the guy that I'm genuinely curious about.  Farve threw a ton of picks.  Was it Woody Hayes who said 3 things can happen when you pass and two of them are bad?  Winston went 30/30 so if some QB guru could reduce the second 30, even without increasing the first 30 (b/c, you know, "Gibson breaks free!  30, 20, 10, TD!"), you'd have a capable QB.  BTW, a pick, per se, is not the negative equivalent of a TD.  It may be returned -- usually not -- but all drives must end.  

That's my point. Winston may have been humbled and grown a bit sitting with Brees for a year. I think we have a pretty good control offense too. 

 

If he can put points up fast and aggressively, it allows our defense to really go into attack mode early too.

[CurseReversed]

The thing about winston which makes him different then some of the other QB's that are getting hyped as trade prospects is that he already had a near best case scenario supporting cast and couldn't perform with it.  If you were trying to project his stats with a different team/scenario its quite possible that things could only get worse for him.  But who knows, for a bargain contract it might be worth taking a look.

 

[DWinzit]

6 hours ago, RWJ said:

He's the same QB now that Ramsey was after he played under Spurrier.  Darnold is gun shy or shall I say sack shy.  When he made the statement about "Ghosts" it tells me his confidence has been shaken.  I love the Patrick Ramsey draft but Spurrier got the guy killed with no OL blocking.  He played well at the Senior Bowl and Spurrier destroyed his NFL career.  

I thought of the Ramsey comparison some with Darnold but actually more with Wentz. Both offensive lines and weapons were weak and injury riddled. Maybe a change of scenery would both some good. It was brutal to watch Ramsey be destroyed.

 

That said, I don't want Darnold and the Wentz reclamation project would only but worth a shot if we got him scrooge cheap. It doesn't appear the Eagles will let that happen, especially with division rival.

 

Also would mean RR would be comfortable risking time on having Turner try a reclamation.

Edited February 6, 2021 by DWinzit

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

It's not easy to throw 30 picks in a season without losing your job. Gotta throw 5k and 30 TDs to pull a feat like that off. 

 

I want Winston in the Maroon and Black next year. Let's get our great defense on the field early and often.

 

I am not a Winston guy but don't dislike him either.  If we go with a FA, they are all fliers in dfferent ways so if that's what we are stuck with I am ok with Winston. Jay for his faults still many said he was a good evaluator -- Ionnaidis, Holcomb among others where his guys that he pushed.  He seemed really high on Winston when he talked on Standig's podcast. 

 

I think though the Saints seem bent on bringing him back. 

 

 

 

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am not a Winston guy but don't dislike him either.  If we go with a FA, they are all fliers in dfferent ways so if that's what we are stuck with I am ok with Winston. Jay for his faults still many said he was a good evaluator -- Ionnaidis, Holcomb among others where his guys that he pushed.  He seemed really high on Winston when he talked on Standig's podcast. 

 

I think though the Saints seem bent on bringing him back. 

 

 

 

The Saints are $70M over the cap with Brees reducing his hit to $1M. 
 

Good luck signing Winston.

 

If we strike out every where else I am not against bringing Winston in to compete. Issue is I could see someone else offering the starting job straight up. So we’d need to do the same. Now, there’s nothing wrong with doing that and then pulling the plug if he is turnover Jameis.

[Skinsinparadise]

I looked up next generation stats.  As I've been saying Darnold was one of the least aggressive QBs, his average completion yards was near the bottom of the league, yet his completion rate was one of the worst. 

 

He's near the bottom at nearly every category.  Only thing I'll give him is Haskins has him beat probably as the worst last year. 

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#completionPercentageAboveExpectation

 

 

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

The Saints are $70M over the cap with Brees reducing his hit to $1M. 
 

Good luck signing Winston.

 

If we strike out every where else I am not against bringing Winston in to compete. Issue is I could see someone else offering the starting job straight up. So we’d need to do the same. Now, there’s nothing wrong with doing that and then pulling the plug if he is turnover Jameis.

 

Payton has gone on the record multiple times they want Winston back, so I am gathering they will at a minimum try to do it.  They are adept at moving cap to future years.  Knowing them, I doubt the Brees move is the end of them finding cap room. 

 

So at a minimum they will be part of the bidding war it seems if there is one.  That's a loaded roster so if I am Winston I'd want to return. 

 

But yeah I am ok with Winston if that's how they do this in the off season.  He's not my top FA pick if we go the FA route, but i am ok with him.  I'd easily take him over guys ike Dalton, Brissett, etc. 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[carex]

14 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

But he wasn't, so he hasn't had a year where he was brutalized and then eventually knocked out for the rest of a season with a serious injury.

 

As much as Burrow has the higher grade going into the '20 draft after that '19 season, Herbert isn't carrying forward with a season of shellacking's that can damage a QB's future in the way Burrow was and he also didn't sustain a season ending ACL/MCL injury. 

 

Herbert jumps ahead of him both because of the health angle going forward and because Herbert hasn't endured a year of getting smashed in the way Burrow was. 

 

Burrow is now damaged by his first professional season. 

 

Herbert wasn't in any significant way physically (via injury) or potentially mentally (by getting slaughtered every week). In fariness, Herbert's OL wasn't great or even good, they were barely adequate, but still, Herbert was pressured a touch under 30% less per game than Burrow was, and he was sacked a full 1 sack per game fewer. 

 

Herbert comes out with a great season and no lingering issues in terms of injury or getting bashed around non-stop, while Burrow comes out with a serious pair of knee injuries, and did get bashed around non-stop to the point where people were actively talking about "we don't want this guy getting knocked out for the year because the Bengals OL is straight trash for weeks, and then that's exactly what happened" a la Luck. 

 

So yeah, I agree that Herbert would've been hit by the same things that would've been out of control, I don't blame Burrow for what happened, he just got drafted by a trash team with a horrible OL (but some legit weapons), and it cost him a serious knee injury and the potential for serious pocket paranoia issues when you see phantom sacks happening left and right due to inept blocking. Herbert managed to avoid that, and that, combined with his performance, elevates him above Burrow, at least for now. 

 

but we're talking about his position in the draft.  You're using hindsight on a situation where they didn't have that

[Darrell Green Fan]

11 hours ago, KDawg said:

I actually don’t blame Gase for the Jets situation.

 

I think he’s probably had his last chance as a NFL HC and rightfully so... not sure how many more chances he can get and not get it done in before teams stop trying... but...

 

The Jets as an organization are a mess. Day one the HC and GM didn’t like each other and it turned into a giant failed experiment. 
 

So while I think Gase shares some blame for that abomination, I don’t think he’s the sole reason for their struggles and nor do I believe he halted Darnold’s development. I see the same guy in the pros that I saw when he was in college. 
 

A decent QB if surrounded with excellent talent. Below average or worse if his talent isn’t among league best. 

 

One of the better posts in the thread, well said. 

 

I'll say it again and again, coaches always think they can untap the talent of a first round bust, how often has a first round bust gone to another team and succeeded?  The only answer I have gotten was Tannehill who was a 7 year started and a 7 year starter is not a bust.

 

Sam Darnold is a bust.  

[ODU AGGIE]

5 hours ago, GothSkinsFan said:

Winston is the guy that I'm genuinely curious about.  Farve threw a ton of picks.  Was it Woody Hayes who said 3 things can happen when you pass and two of them are bad?  Winston went 30/30 so if some QB guru could reduce the second 30, even without increasing the first 30 (b/c, you know, "Gibson breaks free!  30, 20, 10, TD!"), you'd have a capable QB.  BTW, a pick, per se, is not the negative equivalent of a TD.  It may be returned -- usually not -- but all drives must end.  

Nope. It was Texas coach, Darrell Royal.

[wit33]

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I looked up next generation stats.  As I've been saying Darnold was one of the least aggressive QBs, his average completion yards was near the bottom of the league, yet his completion rate was one of the worst. 

 

He's near the bottom at nearly every category.  Only thing I'll give him is Haskins has him beat probably as the worst last year. 

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#completionPercentageAboveExpectation

 

 

 

Payton has gone on the record multiple times they want Winston back, so I am gathering they will at a minimum try to do it.  They are adept at moving cap to future years.  Knowing them, I doubt the Brees move is the end of them finding cap room. 

 

So at a minimum they will be part of the bidding war it seems if there is one.  That's a loaded roster so if I am Winston I'd want to return. 

 

But yeah I am ok with Winston if that's how they do this in the off season.  He's not my top FA pick if we go the FA route, but i am ok with him.  I'd easily take him over guys ike Dalton, Brissett, etc. 

 

 

 

Average completion yards being the average of all completions during the year? Just a simple you completed x amount passes for y amount yards and divide it? 
 

Do you view him as a guy that will take the check down on 3rd and long or try and make a play? Not attempting to be coy, as I do feel from my 15min of watching highlights, game against Washington, and a few other random games I’ve watched he’s always trying to make the aggressive play. Which I value Greatly. 
 

I'm not aggressively saying the team should pursue it, but like you’ve mentioned with other QBs, I’ll trust Ron more than you if they were to get him  

Edited February 6, 2021 by wit33

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

 

 

Average completion yards being the average of all completions during the year? Just a simple you completed x amount passes for y amount yards and divide it? 
 

Do you view him as a guy that will take the check down on 3rd and long or try and make a play? Not attempting to be coy, as I do feel from my 15min of watching highlights, game against Washington, and a few other random games I’ve watched he’s always trying to make the aggressive play. Which I value Greatly. 
 

I'm not aggressively saying the team should pursue it, but like you’ve mentioned with other QBs, I’ll trust Ron more than you if they were to get him  

 

I've watched at least 10 Darnold games.  He didn't come across to me the way you see him.   The stats certaintly don't (not just the ones I posted but others too including he made the least % of throws over 20 yards -- dead last).  Some Jet fans and their local media who watch every game even call him a game manager. I posted some of that here. 

 

I flat out said I'd trust Ron on whatever he does.  But at the moment sorry no mention yet that they are in on Darnold.  If that changes I'll ride with it.  I didn't want Haskins either but once they took him, I tried my best to support it until it went south. 

 

If you want to insist he's a gunsligner, then have it.   . I haven't insisted you believe what I tell you.  You can see Darnold in any way that floats your boat. 

 

If you want me to sell Darnold I can do it but the angle wouldn't be he's some daring Ryan Fitzpatrick let it fly-stretch the field type dude. I get that believing that he's just a daring let it fly Jay Cutler in his heyday type makes his turnover issues feel much more reassuring but IMO it doesn't fit with reality.   

 

If I was forced to sell him, I'd stay away from the gunslinger stuff and say instead he's a big dude who has some cool moments rolling in the pocket especially for a guy his size and if you can channel that well, he could be a really good boot-roll the pocket type which you can use well with a team which thrives on misdirection when it comes to the offense.

 

Edit:  Sorry I read your post a bit too quickly.  Didn't mean to come off harsh that was anger directed at the idea of Darnold, not your point. 😀  

 

To your point more directly, no Darnold isn't a checkdown guy but he's certainly a throw in the flat kind of guy, similar in that way to Haskins and similar to Haskins also in that his accuracy isn't that hot with these safe/easier type throws.  I'd give Darnold an edge over Haskins in that his strength is rolling in the pocket and throwing on the move, he actually oddly at times looks more comfortable doing that than throwing from the pocket, or at least that's how it seemed in the games i watched including college.  Haskins on the other hand really struggles when he's throwing on the move.  

Edited February 6, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

I feel like you guys that are typing “Darnold” are intending to type “Donald”. As in Aaron. Because the word “first” only belongs next to one of them.

 

And it ain’t Sam.

Edited February 6, 2021 by KDawg

[profusion]

I'm pretty sure Ron won't tip his hand at this early stage, even if he has a plan in the works.

 

None of the realistic options are ideal, so the coaches will have to do a lot of adapting, whatever happens. What I don't want is for the WFT to get stuck with another millstone contract on a guy who's just "a guy." The QB market is clearly going to be a little frothy this offseason. Don't be that team.

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, profusion said:

I'm pretty sure Ron won't tip his hand at this early stage, even if he has a plan in the works.

 

None of the realistic options are ideal, so the coaches will have to do a lot of adapting, whatever happens. What I don't want is for the WFT to get stuck with another millstone contract on a guy who's just "a guy." The QB market is clearly going to be a little frothy this offseason. Don't be that team.

With Stafford gone the only vet I'd strongly consider is Watson because of how much of a difference maker he'd be. Otherwise, I'd just bring back Heinecke/Allen and take my chances in the draft.

 

Prescott would be a difference maker too but I just don't see Dallas letting him go.

[El Mexican]

22 hours ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

I don't think you're being fair and you're minimizing defenses and variance. You left out, Foles, Flacco, and Brad Johnson who all won a SB relatively recently. Also, Eli Manning a .500 QB, who led the league with INT's 3 times, won 2 SB's relatively recently. 

 

Yep, all of those team had superb or historic defenses.

They had the talent on D. In no way did the QB carry the entire team the entire season.

 

As of this moment, thanks to RR, we are much closer to those types of teams than to an offensive juggernaut.

 

I like that.

[Skinsinparadise]

I have to cool my anger on the Darnold stuff. 😀    I blame myself on the last 2 moves they made at QB, I was angry in advance of the move then like I am now on the Darnold stuff and that's exactly what they ended up doing.  I've been pretty critical of Dan over the years so maybe that's him exacting revenge at me.   I need to get with the program now.  So Dan if you are reading this thread: Darnold is great, go get him.  Adam Gase, NY Jets, High Draft pick -- what more needs to be said, that he's the right guy?  

 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[wit33]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I feel like you guys that are typing “Darnold” are intending to type “Donald”. As in Aaron. Because the word “first” only belongs next to one of them.

 

And it ain’t Sam.

For me, it’s Darnold when comparing it to the current QB room. Not sure I’ve seen anything from people that he’s shown to be good or a lock to perform well or at the level of Donald lol. There’s 100% risk or he wouldn’t be available with a $9mil cap hit (assuming he is).  
 

For me personally, I’m 100% a sucker for QBs who creat and extend— he has magical moments, in this regard. I’ve also noticed in my limited view of highlights he seems to want to make plays and isn’t concerned with how his stats may look or preserving his job (totally me speculating), but my observation. But obviously, he’s made a lot of bad plays, so not absolving him from that responsibility. 
 

Also, I’ve always been a proponent of picking up high pedigree, good dudes, and hard working guys who struggled in a bad situation and he qualifies. With that said, I’d at best give a 2nd, but prefer a 3rd (not out of the realm of possibility— maybe, 3 and a 5) due to his contract situation. Would be shocked if a team gave them a 1 with him only having one year on his deal. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by wit33

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, wit33 said:

For me, it’s Darnold when comparing it to the current QB room. Not sure I’ve seen anything from people that he’s shown to be good or a lock to perform well or at the level of Donald lol. There’s 100% risk or he wouldn’t be available with a $9mil cap hit (assuming he is).  
 

For me personally, I’m 100% a sucker for QBs who creat and extend— he has magical moments, in this regard. I’ve also noticed in my limited view of highlights he seems to want to make plays and isn’t concerned with how his stats may look or preserving his job (totally me speculating), but my observation. But obviously, he’s made a lot of bad plays, so not absolving him from that responsibility. 
 

Also, I’ve always been a proponent of picking up high pedigree, good dudes, and hard working guys who struggled in a bad situation and he qualifies. With that said, I’d at best give a 2nd, but prefer a 3rd (not out of the realm of possibility— maybe, 3 and a 5) due to his contract situation. Would be shocked if a team gave them a 1 with him only having one year on his deal. 

I honestly suggest you watch more of him. He has been awful and not worth anything above a free agent contract flier. He has some skills. But he is not worth draft capital on a “let’s see” flier.

[skinzplay]

I posted this elsewhere, but might as well put it here too since it's relevant:

I'd rather roll with Henicke and Allen, and continue to build around the QB position, as opposed to give up the resources we would need to do that building. RR is putting together a real team, not a group of look-at-me individuals, and these guys enjoy playing for one another. I loved the way the defensive and offensive players were so damn excited (and clearly not the least bit surprised) at Henicke's play in that wildcard game. It says a lot. A fully conditioned Heinicke (full off-season training regimen), I think, would be better for this team than a Carr or Mariota. 

 

If Lance, for some reason, is still sitting there at 19, maybe we snag him, sit him for a year and let him learn under Zampese. The man can teach. If A. Smith is still around in some capacity, that's another tutor for him.

__________________________________________

Didn't have this in my original post, but just read it in a piece by Keim, quoting RR on giving up a lot in a trade:

 

"But I don't think that's something I would want to do. If you get what you want, but you don't have what you need, then you create problems. If you can't protect the quarterback, or if you don't have playmakers around him, then what's the good of having that guy?"

 

 

[Jericho]

That's the one good thing about Winston. Of all the "reclamation" type QBs, the only thing he costs is money. And if you want to sign him, outbidding the Saints (who are way over the cap and also passed him over for Taysom Hill last season) shouldn't be hard. If I had my druthers, he might not be option 1, but he won't cost drafts picks like Darnold, Mariota, Wentz, or some of the other mediocrities (and while I can't buy the claimed asking price on these guys, it'll still likely be somewhat high). If I'm buying a lottery ticket, I'd prefer not to spend that much on it.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Jericho

[HoggLife]

I'm all for Winston. And I believe we can get him for a killer deal. Here he wouldn't ask to just sling it like he did in Tampa. And he didn't lose confidence. Big strong guy that is still young. He is on my Top 3 list of QBs. 

[Koolblue13]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am not a Winston guy but don't dislike him either.  If we go with a FA, they are all fliers in dfferent ways so if that's what we are stuck with I am ok with Winston. Jay for his faults still many said he was a good evaluator -- Ionnaidis, Holcomb among others where his guys that he pushed.  He seemed really high on Winston when he talked on Standig's podcast. 

 

I think though the Saints seem bent on bringing him back. 

 

 

 

You were about as cold as ice on Winston, until people started talking about Darnold being alright.

[sportsnut]

35 minutes ago, HoggLife said:

I'm all for Winston. And I believe we can get him for a killer deal. Here he wouldn't ask to just sling it like he did in Tampa. And he didn't lose confidence. Big strong guy that is still young. He is on my Top 3 list of QBs. 

Watson, Dak, and Winston?