Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Stone Cold]

On 10/18/2020 at 5:05 PM, Stone Cold said:

If we can’t get Lawrence, we should sign Cam.

Yeah....this didn’t age too well.  😂 cam is done

[Skinsinparadise]

 

No matter how many trades, free agent signings or savvy draft picks the three make over the next few winters, their tenure here is almost certain to be judged by what they decide to do at quarterback this offseason. If they choose well, several seasons of winning are likely to follow, especially given the promise of a defense that Mayhew, the new general manager, described as “somewhere between good and great.” If they choose poorly, they might never recover. Nothing else they do in these next four months will matter as much.

 

 

The fact they made a serious attempt at trading for Matthew Stafford says everything about the urgency Rivera, Hurney and Mayhew feel to find their quarterback for the next several years. Still, when pressed on details about the search, the three were vague, offering flat, noncommittal answers that made it appear they really don’t have a plan for solving their quarterback issue.

 

Obviously, there is a plan, even if it is one constructed in haste during Hurney and Mayhew’s first days on the job. The ambiguity in their answers was intentional and Rivera repeatedly ensured that they will explore “all options.”

 

“The biggest thing is that we got to make sure we find the right one,” Rivera said of the search for the next franchise quarterback. “That’s the key. Is it imperative to find him right now? No, not necessarily. We would love to. But as we go through this process, we’re going to exhaust all avenues. We’re going to take nice long looks at every option that we have out there that’s available to us and we’ll go with the one that we believe is best for us going forward.”

 

...Whatever they decide, it must be clear by the end of this spring. Rivera can’t go through next season without an idea of who he will build around at quarterback. There’s no time to waste, not with a defense that is ready to win now and a team owner who has never been long on patience.

 

Everyone said the right thing Wednesday about not barreling into the offseason in a reckless pursuit to grab the biggest name available. Mayhew talked finding “somebody who fits what you do offensively,” and Hurney said he wanted “to be aggressive” but didn’t want to “mortgage the future.”

 

Perhaps that suggests the team will not make a legitimate run at Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson, who likely will cost several first-round picks, should the Texans decide to trade him. Still, Rivera, Hurney and Mayhew have to do something significant this winter. All of them know how vital it is to have a top quarterback, like Rivera and Hurney had with Newton in Carolina and Mayhew had with Stafford when he was the Lions’ general manager.

 

Complicating everything is the awkward decision that comes with Alex Smith, whose miraculous return after what was assumed to be a career-ending injury inspired the team and played a significant role in Washington’s late run to an NFC East title. Though Smith went 5-1 as a starter, the bone bruise that kept him from starting three of the year’s final four games gave everyone pause. And the way Rivera, Hurney and Mayhew dodged questions about Smith spoke volumes.

 

For months, Rivera has tried to tuck the franchise’s recent wretched past behind a curtain, urging everyone to look ahead at the new culture he’s building. Smith, despite his impressive comeback and undeniable leadership qualities, is a vestige of the previous regime. Rivera, Hurney and Mayhew will have to search elsewhere — and they will have to do it this winter.

It’s the most important decision they will make as one.

[bakedtater1]

Can we pull luck out of retirement?..that would be insane hahaha

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

So, why bother trading Chase Young, if they're about to take away all our draft picks ? 😛

I mean, instead of trading Young in a package for Watson, just trade a bunch of our firsts and other picks.

 

I kid. Just playing along with all the crazy talk of trading Young.

The only thing crazier than trading Chase Young is pretending that Chase Young is untouchable when the best two QB's on the roster finished 29th and 38th in PFF's grading. 

This team is going NOWHERE with Chase Young and without QB's. How to acquire an elite or potentially elite QB without actually sacrificing Young, or even worse options (3 years worth of day 1 and day 2 picks anyone for a team a flukey year removed from finishing 31st in the league) is utterly beyond me. You can try short cuts, but we've done that repeatedly and ended up in a 5-11 to 9-7 perpetual cul de sac w/half measure QB's like Friesz, Matthews, Boonell, McNabb, and even Alex Smith/Kyle Allen/Bust Haskins.  

 

Please consider that.

Our QB's finished:

2020: 

PFF: 29th and 31st

QBR: 34th and 35th

 

2019: 

QBR: 29th and 32nd

 

In other words, our quarterbacking is horrific, and w/o improvement there, we are far more likely to be a 4-6 win team in '21, than to improve to a 9-10 win team. You can't have your QB that bad, and contend long term. Period.

 

Some exceptions for the persnickety amongst you:

2020:

23rd: Drew Brees-He was bad last year so the poor ranking makes sense.  

24th: Lamar Jackson-QBR don't like Jackson. 

 

How'd they do it? Simple, Brees plays for a team with a top 3 defense and elite talent all over the field for the offense and he used to be elite. Lamar isn't liked by QBR and despite a down year, he improved in the second half and he plays with a team with an elite defense and plenty of weapons. 

 

2019: Your outlier year? 

21st: Josh Allen: These days he's a top QB, back then he was a difference making messy QB.

24th: Kirk Cousins: A good defense and a team loaded with weapons everywhere. 

26th: Lamar Jackson: QB clearly hates Lamar who had an insane season in '19. 

27th: Drew Brees: Injury riddled '19 on the way to retiring. 

 

Explanation: Josh was solid in '21, and with the defense playing well and his konami code approach, he was a legit QB. Cousin played in a Saints/ravens styled strong defense with plenty of playmakers on offense, don't know why he couldn't do better. QBR was just wrong about Lamar, and Brees was injured but playing on an elite team. 

 

2018:

20th: Russell Wilson-Not sure what QBR was doing rating Wilson this low. 

 

2017:

21st: Mariota-Probably the worst QB to make the playoffs the past four years in terms of QB and talent. 

23rd: Wentz-QBR is trash. Wentz completed 60% threw 33 TD's and 7 picks, and is 23rd?!?!?

 

2016:

20th: Ben Roth

21st: Alex Smith

23rd: Dak

26th: Tom Brady

 

Okay, major issues with QBR here. 

 

Regardless, what's well and truly worth noting, are there any QB's rated as bad as ours were in the past five years who sniffed the playoffs? The answer? An emphatic NO and the teams that did have QB's that finished around our zone were largely old HOF's playing with elite talent on both sides of the ball, something that absoulutely is not true of the redskins. 

 

That's why I'm recommending all players and assets be on the table, and while I'd prefer trading someone with fewer rookie contract years available than Young, clearly Young carries the most value of any player on our roster by far. He's on a cheap contract for four more years (assuming the option is used), he's clearly elite, and he even carries great mental make up with no hang ups (I should say seemingly, since we never actually know what goes on behind closed doors, it just seems that locker room wise, he's beloved). 

 

So trading him.

 

OF COURSE. 

 

If I can get Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, or Watson, and it costs me Young, I do it every single time. I just want Young's cheap contract applied to the contours of the trade, if you are getting Chase Young, say for Fiedls? I aint giving up a first as well. I'll give up multiple day 2 picks, but not a first. If you're getting Lawrence, Young and our first this year or next I'd do without a second thought for Lawrence. For Watson, if I'm giving up Young, I'd give up a 1st and a day 2 pick in '22. 

 

Young should be available for such trades AND he should cut the cost dramatically of any deal. Btw, no chance I'm trading him as a part of a deal for a Stafford or Carr, that's nonsense, has to be a top 5 QB right now, or one with that potential. 

 

 

[heyholetsgogrant]

14 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

The only thing crazier than trading Chase Young is pretending that Chase Young is untouchable when the best two QB's on the roster finished 29th and 38th in PFF's grading. 

This team is going NOWHERE with Chase Young and without QB's. How to acquire an elite or potentially elite QB without actually sacrificing Young, or even worse options (3 years worth of day 1 and day 2 picks anyone for a team a flukey year removed from finishing 31st in the league) is utterly beyond me. You can try short cuts, but we've done that repeatedly and ended up in a 5-11 to 9-7 perpetual cul de sac w/half measure QB's like Friesz, Matthews, Boonell, McNabb, and even Alex Smith/Kyle Allen/Bust Haskins.  

 

Please consider that.

Our QB's finished:

2020: 

PFF: 29th and 31st

QBR: 34th and 35th

 

2019: 

QBR: 29th and 32nd

 

In other words, our quarterbacking is horrific, and w/o improvement there, we are far more likely to be a 4-6 win team in '21, than to improve to a 9-10 win team. You can't have your QB that bad, and contend long term. Period.

 

Some exceptions for the persnickety amongst you:

2020:

23rd: Drew Brees-He was bad last year so the poor ranking makes sense.  

24th: Lamar Jackson-QBR don't like Jackson. 

 

How'd they do it? Simple, Brees plays for a team with a top 3 defense and elite talent all over the field for the offense and he used to be elite. Lamar isn't liked by QBR and despite a down year, he improved in the second half and he plays with a team with an elite defense and plenty of weapons. 

 

2019: Your outlier year? 

21st: Josh Allen: These days he's a top QB, back then he was a difference making messy QB.

24th: Kirk Cousins: A good defense and a team loaded with weapons everywhere. 

26th: Lamar Jackson: QB clearly hates Lamar who had an insane season in '19. 

27th: Drew Brees: Injury riddled '19 on the way to retiring. 

 

Explanation: Josh was solid in '21, and with the defense playing well and his konami code approach, he was a legit QB. Cousin played in a Saints/ravens styled strong defense with plenty of playmakers on offense, don't know why he couldn't do better. QBR was just wrong about Lamar, and Brees was injured but playing on an elite team. 

 

2018:

20th: Russell Wilson-Not sure what QBR was doing rating Wilson this low. 

 

2017:

21st: Mariota-Probably the worst QB to make the playoffs the past four years in terms of QB and talent. 

23rd: Wentz-QBR is trash. Wentz completed 60% threw 33 TD's and 7 picks, and is 23rd?!?!?

 

2016:

20th: Ben Roth

21st: Alex Smith

23rd: Dak

26th: Tom Brady

 

Okay, major issues with QBR here. 

 

Regardless, what's well and truly worth noting, are there any QB's rated as bad as ours were in the past five years who sniffed the playoffs? The answer? An emphatic NO and the teams that did have QB's that finished around our zone were largely old HOF's playing with elite talent on both sides of the ball, something that absoulutely is not true of the redskins. 

 

That's why I'm recommending all players and assets be on the table, and while I'd prefer trading someone with fewer rookie contract years available than Young, clearly Young carries the most value of any player on our roster by far. He's on a cheap contract for four more years (assuming the option is used), he's clearly elite, and he even carries great mental make up with no hang ups (I should say seemingly, since we never actually know what goes on behind closed doors, it just seems that locker room wise, he's beloved). 

 

So trading him.

 

OF COURSE. 

 

If I can get Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, or Watson, and it costs me Young, I do it every single time. I just want Young's cheap contract applied to the contours of the trade, if you are getting Chase Young, say for Fiedls? I aint giving up a first as well. I'll give up multiple day 2 picks, but not a first. If you're getting Lawrence, Young and our first this year or next I'd do without a second thought for Lawrence. For Watson, if I'm giving up Young, I'd give up a 1st and a day 2 pick in '22. 

 

Young should be available for such trades AND he should cut the cost dramatically of any deal. Btw, no chance I'm trading him as a part of a deal for a Stafford or Carr, that's nonsense, has to be a top 5 QB right now, or one with that potential. 

 

 

I think its fair to say no one is off the table, but if Houston is going to be drunk and want Chase, two 1st, and perhaps another later 1st day pick, it's a no. What you forgot to leave out is, if just had competent QB play this year we would have won AT LEAST 10 games. Even with our brutal schedule next year we can still win 10 games with competent not elite QB play. Our defense is that good. Look at Stafford, Cousins, Watson, Carr, etc, all of them are top 10 QB's when it comes to metrics, but their defenses are terrible. Did any of them make the playoffs this year? Both Tampa and KC has top 10 defense. I don't think it's as cut and dry as just a QB.

Edited February 4, 2021 by heyholetsgogrant
I can't get my thoughts straight

[Mooka]

4 hours ago, veteranskinsfan said:

I listen to a lot of Eagles sports radio.  Some people think he never recovered from his concussion.

He also got beat up with a back injury  the year before.  This year they had a terrible offensive line with tons of injuries.

But he held on to the ball too long and the Head Coach said it was not always the offensive line issues.

 

IMO he's never looked the same since that goal-line injury in 2018. 

 

He had a good year on paper in 2019 and Philly made the playoffs, but it didn't look the same. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

I think its fair to say no one is off the table, but if Houston is going to be drunk and want Chase, 2 1st, and perhaps another later 1st day pick, it's a no. What you forgot to leave out is, if just had competent QB play this year we would have won AT LEAST 10 games. Even with our brutal schedule next year we can still win 10 games with competent not elite QB play. Our defense is that good. 

No it’s not. Not without a quality FS and two inside backers. 
 

Tampa shredded us. KC would shred us. Buffalo would shred us. Dallas with Dak could be a problem. Green Bay would shred us.

 

Wilson is capable of going off but we did well on him this year. 

[heyholetsgogrant]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

No it’s not. Not without a quality FS and two inside backers. 
 

Tampa shredded us. KC would shred us. Buffalo would shred us. Dallas with Dak could be a problem. Green Bay would shred us.

 

Wilson is capable of going off but we did well on him this year. 

I don't disagree, but we have 40 million + in cap space (after we cut Alex)  and a full draft this year (minus a 6th rounder).  We also have two 3rd round picks. We can fill those holes. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by heyholetsgogrant

[Darth Tater]

Is there a team that sold out and traded for a 'name' QB that was actually successful?

[heyholetsgogrant]

13 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

Is there a team that sold out and traded for a 'name' QB that was actually successful?

Most players in NFL history that were traded for at least two 1st round picks were a bust. Someone posted an article a few days back with the names in this thread. It's such a waste. Heck, LA used 8 picks to obtain the #1 pick to get Goff and then to trade him away (Thee 1sts, two 2nd rounders, and three 3rd rounders). Jay Culter was traded for two 1st round picks and 3rd. 😂

Edited February 4, 2021 by heyholetsgogrant

[Rufus T Firefly]

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Jay actually said he's not coaching this year and looking to do media. 

That's nice, but doesn't change my point. If he ever has any interest in coaching again, or think he might at some point, he's going to be careful and measured in what he says, so as to not burn any bridges. 

[Darth Tater]

11 minutes ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

Every player in NFL history that was traded for at least 2 1st round picks was a bust. Someone posted an article a few days back with the names. It's such a waste. Heck, LA used 6 picks to get Goff and trade him away. Jay Culter was traded for two 1st round picks. 😂

And Mahomes?  That was Andy Fricken Reid. If we had a guy with that rep telling us to trade up, I'd be into it. If we make a trade to get a QB, I think it will probably be a bust.

[heyholetsgogrant]

5 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

And Mahomes?  That was Andy Fricken Reid. If we had a guy with that rep telling us to trade up, I'd be into it. If we make a trade to get a QB, I think it will probably be a bust.

I changed it to “Most,” I forgot about Mahomes.  He’s the exception to the rule, most the time it’s not going to work out when trading at least two first round picks. It’s worse than gambling. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by heyholetsgogrant

[FootballZombie]

18 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

Is there a team that sold out and traded for a 'name' QB that was actually successful?

 

Depends on what you mean by sold out and successful.

 

Most QBs fail in the NFL, so it goes to say most QB trades will also fail. Whether you look at the draft, FA or trade, a QB move taking a team to the promise land will almost always come up short.

 

That being said, you can find examples if you look hard enough. Even on the WFT. We traded for Theisman, and that got us a SB. I don't remember what we gave up for him, but Doug Williams was acquired via trade and he got us a SB too.

 

I'm pretty sure the 49ers traded for Steve Young

Packers traded for Farve

 

It happens, and it can work. Barring injury, I'd expect that many of us see the Rams as a SB contender in the NFC next year after their acquisition. I'm not sure I like their long term situation, but the short term is bright.

 

No matter what avenue you take, it is less likely to work out than succeed if your measuring in SBs or even sustained success for that matter.

 

 

 

[NoVaSkins21]

If things don't pan out with any sort of trades or FA, or the draft, they need to seriously take a look at Heinicke as the long term answer.  The kid showed something they haven't had since I don't even know when.  Every QB gets injured, so that's not an issue as far as I'm concerned.  He may be 6 ft 1, but the guy can make plays which is what counts in this league.

Edited February 4, 2021 by SAli457180

[Darth Tater]

4 minutes ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

I changed it to “Most,” I forgot about Mahomes.  He’s the exception to the rule, most the time it’s not going to work out when trading at least two first round picks. It’s worse than gambling. 

I am agreeing with you I think.  Mahomes was an example of a successful trade up but that was engineered by Andy Fricken Reid.  Aside from Lawrance, I think 2 or 3 of the next 4 will be busts and we don't have an Andy Fricken Reid that'll be telling us who it won't be. I also know that no team has sold out for a name in a trade and went on to any level of success that was worth the price. If we go the trade of FA route, it will either be for a nobody looking for a chance or a guy who hits FA because most think he is done.

[CommDownMan]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

My point was, you can keep paying all 4 of these guys. You definitely get to a pinch point in 2024-2025 when the 4 of them could count $75 and $91m of your cap, which is enormous for one position group. But if the 2024 and 2025 salary cap is $250-280 million, it would still leave you with substantial money to pay guys elsewhere. Let's say $91m for those 4, you'd still have about $160-190 million to spend on the rest of the roster. And for context, the current roster as is (with Alex Smith) costs $149 million in 2021.

 

I don;t disagree and as much as I enjoy looking at cap hits and how a team does X,Y,Z in the offseason, I always look at the current year because the variables over 3, 4, 5 years gets to be very fluid.  The guys we call "cap guys" probably truly spend a good portion of their time in these items.  Forecasting, if-then scenarios, structuring deals to reduce risk...

 

Ultimately, I do agree that we could have all 4 on FA contracts.  Once you add the remaining 49 it just depends on what else we want to do.  Only 15 guys are over 2 million currently (Scherff, Darby, Hopkins, FAs will change).  If we put some big deals out in that 20ish range, it certainly changes.

 

 

[Darth Tater]

35 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Depends on what you mean by sold out and successful.

 

Most QBs fail in the NFL, so it goes to say most QB trades will also fail. Whether you look at the draft, FA or trade, a QB move taking a team to the promise land will almost always come up short.

 

That being said, you can find examples if you look hard enough. Even on the WFT. We traded for Theisman, and that got us a SB. I don't remember what we gave up for him, but Doug Williams was acquired via trade and he got us a SB too.

 

I'm pretty sure the 49ers traded for Steve Young

Packers traded for Farve

 

It happens, and it can work. Barring injury, I'd expect that many of us see the Rams as a SB contender in the NFC next year after their acquisition. I'm not sure I like their long term situation, but the short term is bright.

 

No matter what avenue you take, it is less likely to work out than succeed if your measuring in SBs or even sustained success for that matter.

 

 

 

Theismann was not us selling out for a name. Doug was a FA. Farve was not a sell-out and not a name.  Young was not a sell-out or a big name (in fact, he was looking like a bust).

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Otis Wonsley Posse]

Either draft or all in on Watson; Carr or Mariota? 7-9 purgatory 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

That's nice, but doesn't change my point. If he ever has any interest in coaching again, or think he might at some point, he's going to be careful and measured in what he says, so as to not burn any bridges. 

 

If so he did a poor job at that.  I'd love to see some of the ex-coaches, personnel guys who left here pull no punches the way Jay did.  Casserly is always sucking up to Dan.  Heck even Shanny somewhat defended Dan as for his involvement with the team saying it was a rare thing.  Jay flat out said Dan was heavily involved.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[FootballZombie]

35 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

Theismann was not us selling out for a name. Doug was a FA. Farve was not a sell-out and not a name.  Young was not a sell-out or a big name (in fact, he was looking like a bust).

 

a bit tricky, but "a name" means different things to different people so, I can't really debate that from true solid ground.

 

Considering the backlash Doug and the organization faced, I'd personally qualify him as a "name" even if it was for reasons other than football.

Also, we had to send the Bucs draft compensation for the rights to Doug. He was not a FA. That is a trade.

 

 

As far as sell-out, you'd have to put a definition on it. Packers gave up a 1 for Farve. That is pricey. Even more so with his injury concerns. If your asking how many teams have found success after trading 3 1s for a QB, then there is not a lot of history to pick thru as it does not happen often.

 

 

Does it matter that Young was halfway to busting? I don't remember Sam Darnold or Mariota doing much in the NFL yet? Cam has not been good in years. Stafford has numbers, but has won jack squat. How far has Carr ever gotten? Aren't those players being tossed around as possible acquisitions (before trade)? Success has little to do with it in terms of being a name to me. He was an established presence at QB who was traded.

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by FootballZombie

[Skinsinparadise]

Mark Bullock, does some good film review, I don't always agree with him but for what its worth

 

https://markbullock.substack.com/p/quarterback-evaluation-marcus-mariota?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=copy

 

With Matthew Stafford now off the market after being traded to the Rams, Washington has to look elsewhere to find its quarterback. Washington has been linked with some other big name quarterbacks, with Texans disgruntled star Deshaun Watson a fan favorite choice while recent reports suggest the team could be interested in Raiders’ quarterback Derek Carr. While both are established starting quarterbacks, the pair would also come at a significant cost. That shouldn’t necessarily mean Washington shouldn’t pursue either option, but there could be some more affordable quarterbacks out there too.

One such quarterback would be Carr’s back up, Marcus Mariota. Mariota was a free agent last offseason after the Titans opted to go with Ryan Tannehill over the former second overall pick. He signed a two-year deal with the Raiders last offseason to back up Carr, meaning Washington would have to trade for him but the cost is unlikely to reach first-round value. So what would make a back up quarterback an appealing option for Washington? Let’s take a closer look.

 

...Mariota offers plenty of attractive tools for a quarterback to have. Perhaps his best trait is his accuracy and ball placement. In short to intermediate areas of the field, Mariota has excellent accuracy and can often be incredibly precise with his ball placement.

Mariota isn’t a flawless quarterback, or he wouldn’t have been cut by the Titans and only signed as a back up with the Raiders. He has issues with inconsistencies at times and while he has just about every tool you could ask for in a quarterback, he doesn’t always put them together perfectly. However, with the number of positive traits he does have, experience playing in the NFL along with being only 27, Mariota does have plenty of upside for a team looking for a quarterback this offseason. He wouldn’t necessarily make a team like Washington an instant contender the way Deshaun Watson would, but he could be an interesting fit in Washington’s system which could make the most of his positive traits. He could also come relatively cheaply and allow Washington to keep its first round pick and plenty of cap space, allowing the team to improve the supporting cast around him.

[CPAllTheWay012]

I hope we roll with Alex Smith.  He's been a winner for us when he starts.  It'd be nice to see the WFT show some loyalty given all the dude has been through.  Looks nice on the surface.  

 

Behind him, I'd roll with Taylor Heinicke, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and/or Marcus Mariota.  

 

Don't think we should give an arm and leg for Watson or anyone else for that matter.  I'm very glad we faltered on Stafford.  Draft a young gun this year or next.