Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[seantaylor=god]

5 minutes ago, BurgundyBooger said:

From my understanding of the reports, ownership offered to consult with Watson on the GM search prior to him committing to the extension, and besides not doing that, they didn't even bother to interview Eric Bieniemy whom Watson reportedly advocated.

 

I don't begrudge any player who asks to be traded provided they reimburse their team of any future money owed. Watson's reasons might turn off a few who feel a player's influence should be confined to the field and not extended to the front office, but Watt and Watson are the natural leaders of that team and it must be incredibly frustrating for men of their cloth to have to endure the galactic misteps of their organization and refrain from taking larger steps to fixing them.

And I don’t begrudge him either. But I wonder if old school linebacker Rivera would. You know, they guy that benched Cam for not wearing a tie? We will see.

[mistertim]

11 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Yep that be a letdown at this stage. 
 

I do think he wants to go high end at QB. That said, I also thought that we’d have Jimmy G down as our #2 option after Stafford. Which again, is met with mixed responses.

 

So who knows. I guess letting Stafford head to SF makes Jimmy G expendable if that is the thinking. But I kind of hope not.

 

Yeah to me someone like Jimmy G or Derek Carr would be what I'd consider "secondary markets". I'm pretty "meh" on both of those guys. They're better than what we have, but they're not guys who will take us over the top.

 

I suppose I'd be ok with them as "placeholders", but the issue with getting mediocre placeholders is that they're still good enough that you need to invest some decent money in them for contracts.

 

So those aren't guys you generally bring in as placeholders for a year, but for a few years, like with Alex Smith. Which I don't think is what Ron really wants if what we're hearing is true.

Edited January 29, 2021 by mistertim

[HigSkin]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Listened to Keim just now, who talked in the mix at some point just straight 20 minutes only about QB.  His thoughts:

 

A. Rivera's obsession is with SB, not just winning, need a better QB to do it

B. He thinks they will big time hunting for a QB this off season

 

 

If the part about RR's "obsession" with the SB is true and we're talking about over the next couple years, you have to land that big fish.  Retread guys or young guys from the draft aren't gonna do it.  The only ones that gives you that ability is Watson, Stafford, if Rodgers becomes available and I'll throw in Dak.  Keim ususally dances around stuff but knows more than he says so I take his word on it.

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by HigSkin

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

45 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

I will be really surprised if Rivera wants to go after Watson. Watson signed a LTD AFTER the Texans were an organizational disaster and AFTER O’Brien traded Hopkins and 6 months later Watson is demanding a trade. Why? Because he wasn’t consulted on GM hire? I get that Houston is terrible but does this really sound like the kind of behavior Ron Rivera respects and would give up multiple 1sts for?

 

I love Watson and would do it but I just can’t wrap my head around this.

 

Apparently, BOB was able to keep Jack Easterby at bay.  

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/texans/news/houston-texans-jack-easterbys-3-big-alleged-sports-illustrated-lies

 

There are also reports that he is contacting players families if they don't respond to his texts in a timely manner. 

 

[Thinking Skins]

Was it ever revealed what caused Aaron Rodgers to drop? Every year I wonder about one of the top guys dropping to our pick. Given, there haven't been guys I really wanted since Lawrence. Even Tua last year was more hype than I wanted to get involved in. Burrow was fools gold to me because of his history. Previous years, I wanted Allen but didn't think he'd drop that much farther. DIdn't study Mahomes/Watson/Tribusky. Same for Goff and Wentz. DIdn't like Watson and Mariota. Didn't like Bortles/Bridgewater/Manzel (although I was curious about Bridgewater but we didn't have a first). Didn't like Manuell.

 

So the only QB I can really remember being excited about in the draft was Allen and I remember the Big Ben comparisons to him, and the questions about his accuracy, but there was debate of him and Darnold going first. Instead Mariota went first and Allen dropped. 

With the possibility of as many as 6 QBs going in the first, but almost guaranteed to have 4 going in the first I really wonder who will drop to us. 

Previous years with 3+ QBs: 

2020 - 1, 5, 6, 26

2019 - 1, 6, 15

2018 - 1, 3, 7, 10, 32

2017 - 2, 10, 12

2016 - 1, 2, 26

2014 - 3, 22, 32

2012 - 1, 2, 8, 22

2011 - 1, 8, 10, 12

2009 - 1, 5, 17

2006 - 3, 10, 11

2005 - 1, 24, 25

2004 - 1, 4, 11, 22

2003 - 1, 7, 19, 22

2002 - 1, 3, 32

1999 - 1, 2, 3, 11, 12

 

In 4QB years, the first QB always goes top pick but in 3 QB years we have a range of [1-3]. No surprise here as Lawrence will go number 1. 

 

The second pick is always gone by the 8th pick. That would be EXTREMELY late for Wilson or Fields. I could honestly see Fields lasting that long but not Wilson. I still think Fields goes before Wilson but I could see a team taking a flyer on Wilson if Fields drops. But the range is [2-24]. This would take a lot of stuff to go our way like some kind of draft day rumors or multiple guys getting arrested/injured questioning their love for football etc. I doubt this happens. In particular, we see that in the 4 QB years (as this one likely is) we have a range of [2-8]. 

 

The latest the third pick goes is the 19th pick, but the range is [3-26]. This is where we could possibly see a chance at both Wilson and Lance. Its unlikely as its happened in 2003 and 2005 so its something to consider. I can't remember what the word was on Grossman and Boller in the draft hype and why Rodgers dropped though. 

 

The most interesting is the 4th QB. This is where we see some interesting range [26, 10, 22, 12, 22, 22, 11]. Look at that oscillation between the pre teens and the 20s. The 4th QB just isn't taken in the teens. This kinda shows that the 4th QB is either the end of a QB stretch where everybody is going and grabbing somebody or a grab at the end of the round to get a guy that dropped or to control on that 5th year. 

 

And the 5th QB is almost guaranteed to go in the 20s or later. Only time it wasn't was Cade McNown in 1999. So it looks like there's a slight chance we have a Lance option at QB at 19, or an opportunity to trade up slightly and get a Fields or Wilson if one drops into the teens. But its more of a question of do we want Newman or Jones in the first. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I still want Winston as my #1 preference. I don't care about Ints as much, because I like when our defense is on the field. And when you can throw for yards and TDs like he has shown that he can do, our defense gets to pin its ears back and flat out attack.

 

The biggest factor in wins and losses is turnovers, every coach says this. Winston has averaged over 1 1/2 turnovers a game for his professional career.  

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

That's a bit of a hard line stance to take isn't it? If you're only willing to give up a 2nd or less for a QB your pool will be limited to mediocre guys mostly. We've seen where that takes us.

 

Yep just a second that would be Darnold category.    Yuck for me. 

 

Stafford >>> McNabb and Alex.   Stafford also is a year younger than Alex was at the time of the trade.

 

The good news for all those who are looking for an upgrade at QB, by all indications the WFT have that same urgency.  the bad news is we might not be able to pull off in spite of that desire. 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

We could have had Rodgers if we hadn't stupidly traded up into the first round several weeks before the draft like a bunch of dip****s. He went one pick before Jason Campbell who we gave up a first, third, and fourth for.

[Ball Security]

1 minute ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

We could have had Rodgers if we hadn't stupidly traded up into the first round several weeks before the draft like a bunch of dip****s. He went one pick before Jason Campbell who we gave up a first, third, and fourth for.

Or we could just have picked Rodgers instead of Carlos Rogers and kept our picks.

[Skinsinparadise]

39 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

 

And the 5th QB is almost guaranteed to go in the 20s or later. Only time it wasn't was Cade McNown in 1999. So it looks like there's a slight chance we have a Lance option at QB at 19, or an opportunity to trade up slightly and get a Fields or Wilson if one drops into the teens. But its more of a question of do we want Newman or Jones in the first. 

 

The problem is every draft is different. Schefter among others are suggesting this will be a unique year in that so many teams being in the hunt.  With all these teams picking ahead of us needing QBs, I'd be surprised if there is any surprise drop at QB.  I think this is more like the year where dudes like Christian Ponder ended up surprisingly high picks then anything else.  I wonder now for example if Newman becomes a first rounder.

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

Looking back historically at the QBs that may be available at our pick its more than likely going to be the third, fourth or fifth QB taken in the draft. So here's a look at those QBs taken over the last 21 years and assuming all are available at pick 19 who I would pick (who has the higher career AV in PFR)

 

1999: 3rd QB taken: Akili Smith, 4th QB taken: Daunte Culpepper, 5th QB taken: Cade McNown

2000: 3rd QB taken: Chris Redman, 4th QB taken: Tee Martin, 5th QB taken: Marc Bulger

2001: 3rd QB taken: Quincy Carter, 4th QB taken: Marques Tuiasosopo, Chris Weinke

2002: 3rd QB taken: Patrick Ramsey, 4th QB taken: Josh McCown, 5th QB taken: David Garrard

2003: 3rd QB taken: Kyle Boller, 4th QB taken: Rex Grossman, 5th QB taken: Dave Ragone

2004: 3rd QB taken: Ben Roethlisberger, 4th QB taken: J.P. Losman, 5th QB taken: Matt Schaub

2005: 3rd QB taken: Jason Campbell, 4th QB taken: Charlie Frye, 5th QB taken: Andrew Walter

2006: 3rd QB taken: Jay Cutler, 4th QB taken: Kellen Clemens, 5th QB taken: Tavaris Jackson

2007: 3rd QB taken: Kevin Kolb, 4th QB taken: John Beck, 5th QB taken: Drew Stanton

2008: 3rd QB taken: Brian Brohm, 4th QB taken: Chad Henne, 5th QB taken: Kevin O'Connell

2009: 3rd QB taken: Josh Freeman, 4th QB taken: Pat White, 5th QB taken: Stephen McGee

2010: 3rd QB taken: Jimmy Clausen, 4th QB taken: Colt McCoy, 5th QB taken: Mike Kafka

2011: 3rd QB taken: Blane Gabbert 4th QB taken: Christian Ponder, 5th QB taken: Andy Dalton

2012: 3rd QB taken: Ryan Tannehill, 4th QB taken: Brandon Weeden, 5th QB taken: Brock Osweiler

2013: 3rd QB taken: Mike Glennon, 4th QB taken: Matt Barkley, 5th QB taken: Ryan Nassib

2014: 3rd QB taken: Teddy Bridgewater, 4th QB taken: Derek Carr, 5th QB taken: Jimmy Garoppolo

2015: 3rd QB taken: Garrett Grayson, 4th QB taken: Sean Mannion, 5th QB taken: Bryce Petty

2016: 3rd QB taken: Paxton Lynch, 4th QB taken: Christian Hackenberg, 5th QB taken: Jacoby Brissett

2017: 3rd QB taken: Deshaun Watson, 4th QB taken: SeShone Kizer, 5th QB taken: Davis Webb

2018: 3rd QB taken: Josh Allen, 4th QB taken: Josh Rosen, 5th QB taken: Lamar Jackson

2019: 3rd QB taken: Dwayne Haskins, 4th QB taken: Drew Lock, 5th QB taken: Will Grier

2020: 3rd QB taken: Justin Herbert, 4th QB taken: Jordan Love, 5th QB taken: Jalen Hurts

 

It seems that 6 of these picks are franchise QBs (4-Culpepper, 5-Bulger, 3-Roethlisberger, 3-Watson, 5-Jackson and 3-Herbert); 

10 are/were decent starters (Garrard, Grossman, Campbell, Cutler, Freeman, Dalton, Tannehill, Carr, Brissett, Lock)

and the rest didn't last long as starters (Carter, Kolb, Henne, McCoy, Glennon, Petty)

 

So it looks most likely that (if we go along with the standard rankings of the QBs) we land a decent starter but not a franchise QB wiht this spot. But its also about split that we land a franchise guy or a guy who's riding the pine very quickly. 

[Thinking Skins]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The problem is every draft is different. Schefter among others are suggesting this will be a unique year in that so many teams being in the hunt.  With all these teams picking ahead of us needing QBs, I'd be surprised if there is any surprise drop at QB.  I think this is more like the year where dudes like Christian Ponder ended up surprisingly high picks then anything else.  I wonder now for example if Newman becomes a first rounder.

 

Teams needing QBs is not unique. What we're seeing right now is the beginning of teams starting to address that position. I have a feeling that with the emerging trade market and the FA market that follows we will have a lot more clarification. A lot of these GMs don't like to go into the draft needing a QB and being forced to rely on a rookie, especially if they're not guaranteed the top QB in the draft. 

 

Then there is the question of will teams do like Denver did in 2019, or what we did in 2011 and just pass on a QB because they either don't like the guys available or they think they can get a value guy later in the draft. 

 

I'm even looking at the runs and its showing that the runs don't go 5 QBs deep. The fifth QB was taken #12. Only other time there were 5 QBs in the first was 2018 and Jackson went number 32. I can't see this being another 1999. If we want Jones or Newman I think they'll both be available at our pick. Question becomes how good will they be and assuming they're the fifth QB taken, only Bulger and Jackson were the 5th QBs taken in a draft and wound up being franchise guys. Garrad, Dalton, Schaub, Jimmy G and Briissett were decent starters and the rest were busts. So the 5th QB taken is a risky spot to make your first round pick. We've got a chance to take say the top ILB or the 5th best QB? 

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

 

If the part about RR's "obsession" with the SB is true and we're talking about over the next couple years, you have to land that big fish.  Retread guys or young guys from the draft aren't gonna do it.  The only ones that gives you that ability is Watson, Stafford, if Rodgers becomes available and I'll throw in Dak.  Keim ususally dances around stuff but knows more than he says so I take his word on it.

 

If he really has an obsession with Super Bowl it’s actually a fairly scary prospect.

 

Gotta risk it for the biscuit and high end QBs cost... ya... I’ve heard them both.

 

I think being overly aggressive for a QB is actually a quick fix that isn’t to set up long term success but rather win right now.

 

And my problem with that approach is that I don’t think we have the roster to do that. We are one significant injury on the DL to any of the starting four from the wheels coming off the wagon.

 

In order for the win now move to be successful we need two quality receivers, at minimum one inside backer who is a stud, Darby or another reclamation CB, a left tackle, Scherff, and a strong running game. 
 

That’s what the Chiefs have. That’s what the Bucs have. That’s what the Packers have (though we saw their corner weakness stick out like a sore thumb and they are short on big time receivers as well aside from Adams). This is what the Bills have. 
 

If we can fix the major holes (I’ll be nice and say ILB, WRx2, LT) we can have a shot. If Scherff is gone add guard to that list. Free safety could be one of those holes, too. 
 

So the win now move can work if we can still manage to get all of those needs filled and not rank the next year or two after this season.

 

But does anyone think the roster as constructed and realistic additions + Watson can go toe to toe with KC? Buffalo? Tampa? New Orleans? The Rams with a QB? Hell, SF with a QB?
 

How about a realistic roster + Stafford?

 

Anything can happen. Upsets happen and runs happen. So the point that if you have the QB you’re in position to capitalize on “**** happens” isn’t lost on me. 
 

The roster needs a lot of work to hang with those aforementioned teams though. 

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, DisgruntledLionFan#54,927 said:

 

Apparently, BOB was able to keep Jack Easterby at bay.  

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/texans/news/houston-texans-jack-easterbys-3-big-alleged-sports-illustrated-lies

 

There are also reports that he is contacting players families if they don't respond to his texts in a timely manner. 

 

Unreal!

Edited January 29, 2021 by RWJ

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[RWJ]

30 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The problem is every draft is different. Schefter among others are suggesting this will be a unique year in that so many teams being in the hunt.  With all these teams picking ahead of us needing QBs, I'd be surprised if there is any surprise drop at QB.  I think this is more like the year where dudes like Christian Ponder ended up surprisingly high picks then anything else.  I wonder now for example if Newman becomes a first rounder.

Possible on Newman but that'd be an extreme reach as Ponder was and proved to be.  Only way I see Newman being a 1st rounder is if he has an outstanding game in the Senior Bowl.  I see Jones as a 1st rounder though.  That's more realistic and Trusk, hitting the bottom of the 1st before Newman.  Newman didn't play at all this past year.  That hurts his draft stock to some degree. 

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

It's a moot point.  You got a QB that doesn't want to play for you and sits out YOU HAVE TO trade him for a Walker type deal.  It's common sense.  Hate that it's come to this where players dictate how/when/why but when the 1st player enforced it, this was bound to happen again.  I don't who was the first to demand such a trade but once it happens others will follow because it was allowed the first time. 

[Malapropismic Depository]

I don't read this thread much lately ; but am I the only one who does not want to trade for Watson ? It kind of seems that way.

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

I don't read this thread much lately ; but am I the only one who does not want to trade for Watson ? It kind of seems that way.

No. You are not.

[CjSuAvE22]

9 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

I don't read this thread much lately ; but am I the only one who does not want to trade for Watson ? It kind of seems that way.

I don't want to trade for him either because it will cost a haul of picks, however if we land him somehow without giving up players and just draft picks id be ok with it he's that good and I think our offense becomes instantly better, he has the rare ability of legs and being an accurate passer. However that being said I don't think we should be giving up more than a 2nd for Stafford except many here think our first and multiple picks are worth it for him I just don't see him making our offense any better than a qb that could potentially be released that has starting experience in the league is he better than a Mariota, Carr, fitzpatrickI would say so but I don't think he adds more significant  value than any of those guys with the players we have on offense currently and to be able to sign those guys to contracts without having to give up picks which could mean (but isn't a guarantee) losing out on a young player that could end up being a stud or adding value or depth to the current roster. In short I value a trade for watson over Stafford because I think watson has a lot to offer compared to Stafford, and I think we can improve at QB without needing to give up picks while also just sticking to what we have isn't so unreasonable to me either.

Edited January 29, 2021 by CjSuAvE22

[Mooka]

9 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

I don't read this thread much lately ; but am I the only one who does not want to trade for Watson ? It kind of seems that way.

 

I actually think Watson will bust around here. 

 

But not based on reality, just being a fan of this franchise for too long. 

[Busch1724]

As much as I like him, don't give more than 2 1's, if that. You need draft capital to help him out. 

[Malapropismic Depository]

4 minutes ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

I don't want to trade for him either because it will cost a haul of picks, however if we land him somehow without giving up players and just draft picks id be ok with it

 

Given the extremely high demand for him, both in intensity as well as quantity of teams, it seems very unlikely that a team would not be forced to give up a player or players, in addition to some high draft picks.

It's almost a given.

The competition to trade for him, will make it beyond what we should spend.

And that is just one, of the multiple reasons that I am not interested in such a trade.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Malapropismic Depository

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

52 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Or we could just have picked Rodgers instead of Carlos Rogers and kept our picks.

That too. I hate us so much.

[skinny21]

@KDawg  I tend to agree that our roster is not as good as we feel and that it’s going to be difficult to get it to Super Bowl level if we give up major resources for a qb.  Obviously getting into the roster in depth, conversation-wise, belongs in the FA thread, but just wanted to address how we can succeed even if we use major resources on qb.

 

Spitballing how we could go about it though...

Sign a receiver like Curtis Samuel that can play some combo of inside and outside.

Sign an up-and-coming ILB (operating under the assumption that the combination of Scherff, Samuel and a top qb - Watson/Stafford/Dak - eat up enough of the cap to preclude a high end ILB)

Sign two bargain corners

Draft something like:  an ILB, corner, receiver, FS, TE, RB

 

Our secondary remains roughly the same.  Maybe a bit worse if the new corners are a step down from Darby, maybe a bit better if they are better (or Moreland is knocked down to backup) or allow us to play press man more often... or if the rookie FS is better than what we have.  Secondary depth is improved as well.

ILBs are (hopefully) a notch better - improving run D (benefitting our pass rush with more 3rd and longs)

Receiving group is improved.

QB is (vastly) improved.

 

That’s not including the chances a rookie rb or TE improves our situation at those 2 spots.

 

Overall, offense takes a big step forward, Defense goes from a bit overrated to (roughly) correctly rated - top 10 or top 5.

 

The above is assuming the cap goes up in the future, allowing us to move some of that money out while still allowing us to re-sign the next couple/few guys likely due significant contracts.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

will see