Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

[TheGoodBits]

24 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

This week has dragged a bit more than normal for me, but whatever.  I'm remaining optimistic that Biden will win and win by a lot.  

That’s the weird thing. I obsessively read analysis from Nate Silver, Cohn, Elliott Morris, Dave Wasserman, etc. I know Biden has a comfortable lead and it’s been tremendously stable for months. I know he’s the overwhelming favorite to win and I’m 100% confident he’ll get substantially more votes than Trump. But I still can’t shake that sense of impending doom, and it’s terribly distracting. 

[China]

As of now nationally, early voting is at 53% of total voting from 2016.  In Texas, they are at 90%, and Georgia and NC are both above 75%.

 

 

[TheGoodBits]

1 minute ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Thanks for the clarification.  I just pulled from the Upshot.  So does this mean that the Univision margins reflect all voters, not just latinos?  If so, those are good results (maybe not as good as hoped in PA). 

Here ya go. The graphic displays their overall poll results, the text of the embedded tweet shows their results just for Latinos. 
 

 

[China]

3 minutes ago, Larry said:

Part of me is hoping for an ED blowout that's of such proportions that the GOP never pulls the trigger...

 

Yeah, I'm sure a lot of the GOP has Erectile Dysfunction which prevents them from pulling the trigger

[Spaceman Spiff]

1 minute ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

That’s the weird thing. I obsessively read analysis from Nate Silver, Cohn, Elliott Morris, Dave Wasserman, etc. I know Biden has a comfortable lead and it’s been tremendously stable for months. I know he’s the overwhelming favorite to win and I’m 100% confident he’ll get substantially more votes than Trump. But I still can’t shake that sense of impending doom, and it’s terribly distracting. 

 

Probably because of what happened in 2016, it's certainly understandable.

 

I've read some of those, too. The one sneaking suspicion  conspiracy theory that I have about all of it is that...I'm wondering if their polling is accurate.  That they're invested in pushing false narratives about how much of a lead Biden actually has in order to dissuade people from voting for Trump.  That Biden's lead is so large that anyone who's leaning towards Trump shouldn't bother.  

 

Like I said, I'm remaining positive but I think everyone has a little bit of 2016 PTSD.

[goskins10]

1 hour ago, Larry said:

 

Remember.  If they die, they didn't die from the rally.  It was their pre-existing conditions that did it.  

 

And hey, 9 people in the ER is still way less than 1%, so what's the problem?  

 

 

If we would just stop testing it would go away completely! Why don't you people understand this!!  

 

   

[spjunkies]

1 minute ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

Probably because of what happened in 2016, it's certainly understandable.

 

I've read some of those, too. The one sneaking suspicion  conspiracy theory that I have about all of it is that...I'm wondering if their polling is accurate.  That they're invested in pushing false narratives about how much of a lead Biden actually has in order to dissuade people from voting for Trump.  That Biden's lead is so large that anyone who's leaning towards Trump shouldn't bother.  

 

Like I said, I'm remaining positive but I think everyone has a little bit of 2016 PTSD.

 

I'm worried about the opposite scenario. Dems traditionally get overconfident about polls and don't turn out when it counts.

[China]

1 minute ago, spjunkies said:

 

I'm worried about the opposite scenario. Dems traditionally get overconfident about polls and don't turn out when it counts.

 

Which is why the data in my post above about early voting is encouraging.  Many have already voted.

[TheGoodBits]

1 minute ago, spjunkies said:

 

I'm worried about the opposite scenario. Dems traditionally get overconfident about polls and don't turn out when it counts.

Yep, they’re the ones that have to decide whether to stand in line for 4 hours to vote. Republicans walk in, vote, and leave within 5 minutes. 

[Cooked Crack]

 

 

[spjunkies]

Crazy old man alert.

 

 

[The Evil Genius]

 

[Momma There Goes That Man]

Too many game of thrones references on the last page. Don't forget, we all thought that show would end at least "ok" and sure enough we were all strapped into a chair and had our eyeballs repeatedly poked with toothpicks until we died. As Bob Segar once said, "I wish I didn't know now what I didn't know then."

 

So don't take anything for granted yet. 

[Llevron]

I dont know why but I feel so embarrassed listening to Rudy. I dont empathize with him. But he is just.... beyond belief. And hes gross! 

[JCB]

I definitely feel the dread, but I see the huge numbers of people out there voting and I wonder if that's adequately capture in the polls. If the overall voting numbers are up this year, as is obvious, then a "small" margin in a swing state like mine (NC) could mean a considerably larger overall gap than we saw in 2016. Spitballing but there's good energy and obvious will to get this done.

[PleaseBlitz]

35 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

That’s the weird thing. I obsessively read analysis from Nate Silver, Cohn, Elliott Morris, Dave Wasserman, etc. I know Biden has a comfortable lead and it’s been tremendously stable for months. I know he’s the overwhelming favorite to win and I’m 100% confident he’ll get substantially more votes than Trump. But I still can’t shake that sense of impending doom, and it’s terribly distracting. 

 

This is me, exactly.  Down to the precise names on your list with the additions of Harry Enten, plus Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato for a broader less statistical perspective.

[Jumbo]

my main areas of concern are all still significant to me

 

the percentage of record turnout, including all the new voters and those 2016 'sit-outs' in key states that will go to trump (just enough here and there in the right places is troubling)

 

the end effects of the vast scope of suppression tactics on the actual vote and the counting of it inc. court rulings

 

after-vote chicanery across the trump admin to obstruct results, again inc. court rulings

 

potential of incidents of violence and results/reactions from trump admin, local leos, and the population in general

 

other than that, just another day in hairless monkey land

 

 

[PleaseBlitz]

Speaking of Cook Political Report folks, here is the latest from their Presidential analyst Amy Walter (also a good follow):

 

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/bidens-path-270-widens-trumps-path-narrows-texas-moves-toss

 

Biden’s Path to 270 Widens, Trump’s Path Narrows, as Texas Moves to Toss Up

 

Quote

Less than a week out from Election Day and President Donald Trump is playing catch-up. In 2016, he won 30 states (and Maine's 2nd Congressional District) and their 306 electoral votes. Today, just 20 states, worth 125 electoral votes, are safely in his column. Former Vice President Joe Biden is holding 24 states worth 290 electoral votes in his column. 

 

To win the election, Trump will need to win every state we currently have in the Toss Up column: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Maine's 2nd CD, as well as the newest addition, Texas. Even then, Trump would be 22 electoral votes short of 270. He would need to win at least two of the seven states currently sitting in Lean Democrat: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire. Trump carried all but Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire in 2016.

 

At this point, Ohio and Maine's 2nd District are probably the most promising for Trump, followed by Texas and Iowa. If he were to win all of those, he'd be at 188 electoral votes, still 82 votes shy of 270. Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina are pure Toss Ups with Biden ahead by anywhere from 1 to 2 points in those states. 

Even if Trump were to win all of those states, he'd then need to move into the Lean Democratic territory where Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania offer the best opportunities. If you just looked at polling averages, Arizona would be the best opportunity for Trump. Biden has a small — but steady — 3 point lead. Even so, given Trump's unpopularity among suburban voters, it's hard to see how he makes up needed ground in Maricopa (Phoenix). 

 

In Wisconsin, a huge spike in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations has led state health officials to plead with residents to leave home only when absolutely necessary. That COVID is the dominating issue in these final days of the campaign is a problem for the president. Charles Franklin, the Marquette University Law School poll director, told the AP recently that "approval of his handling of COVID is the next-strongest predictor of vote choice, behind voters' party affiliation and their overall approval of Trump's performance as president." In the most recent Marquette poll in early October Trump had an anemic 41 percent approval rating on his handling of the virus. 

Picking up Arizona and its 11 electoral votes would get Trump to 259 electoral votes, 11 shy of 270. Picking up Wisconsin (10 EV) or Minnesota, where the Trump campaign is spending time and effort (10 EV), would leave both candidates stuck at 269.

 

This is where Pennsylvania becomes even more critical. 

 

In Pennsylvania, the conventional wisdom, as well as the Trump campaign, see a tightening race. The FiveThirtyEight polling average puts Biden ahead by 5 points. But, congressional district polling paints a different — and more difficult — picture for the president. These polls find Biden expanding Clinton's margins in suburban Philadelphia, but also find Trump failing to put up the same kind of numbers he did in 2016 in central, western and northeastern Pennsylvania.

It continues on about Biden having several paths to victory. 

[Momma There Goes That Man]

 

[Elessar78]

1 hour ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

Univision po-ooooooooooooolllllllll! Pooooooooollllllllllllll!!!!

[Burgold]

2 hours ago, Larry said:

 

Remember.  If they die, they didn't die from the rally.  It was their pre-existing conditions that did it.  

 

And hey, 9 people in the ER is still way less than 1%, so what's the problem?  

 

If health insurers can get away with calling stupidity a pre-existing condition a whole lot of people are in trouble.

[PleaseBlitz]

57 minutes ago, spjunkies said:

 

I'm worried about the opposite scenario. Dems traditionally get overconfident about polls and don't turn out when it counts.

 

I feel like this has happened once in my lifetime, and Dems are sure as **** not doing that again 4 years later. 

[Busch1724]

1 hour ago, China said:

 

Yeah, I'm sure a lot of the GOP has Erectile Dysfunction which prevents them from pulling the trigger

 

I'm hoping for Electile Dysfunction and they can't pull the lever...

[JSSkinz]

I might be more pessimistic than most but this is how I see things going down on election day,  Trump is within the margin of error in FL, NC, and OH so I believe he will win those states and I think Joe takes WI, MI, and MN.  With that being said I leave open 3 states that will decide it which is AZ, PA, and IA and Joe's lead in those states is razor thin.  I think GA and Texas are pipe dreams but it may be much closer than it's ever been.

 

It's going to be tight and unfortunately Trump could easily win this, I hope I'm wrong.

 

 

 

[Larry]

24 minutes ago, Burgold said:

If health insurers can get away with calling stupidity a pre-existing condition a whole lot of people are in trouble.

 

Age.  

 

It increases your risk for all kinds of expensive things.