Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

[visionary]

 

[Larry]

6 hours ago, visionary said:

 

 

I think "covey spreader" is the most lame thing I've seen. My respect for Lincoln Project went down quite a bit. 

[visionary]

 

[Larry]

And that order might have made a difference, a month ago.  

 

(But probably not.  He would have ignored it.)  

[Burgold]

These moves speak to such fear and desperation. The GOP should be ashamed. Every citizen who votes Republican should be ashamed.

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

[redskinss]

Love the second round of disinfectant after reading 26 sexual assault accusations. 

🤣🤣🤣🤣

[skinsmarydu]

Dr. Jill's ad is awesome.  Cried in my coffee. 

[Hersh]

These attempts to analyze early voting and what one side needs before Election Day are really dumb and pointless. No one knows independent breakdowns or cross over votes. 

[goskins10]

6 minutes ago, Hersh said:

These attempts to analyze early voting and what one side needs before Election Day are really dumb and pointless. No one knows independent breakdowns or cross over votes. 

 

Agree 100! I really wish they would just stop it The polls are one thing, although in my perfect world there would not be any polls. Just let people make their own minds up, I think polls have the ability to influence how and honestly if people vote. 

 

But the whole let's analyze early voting even though no official vote counts have been released are just opinion pieces. 

[Larry]

Oh, to me, the big problem with trying to analyze early voting, heck, even if you had official results, is that you have no way of knowing how many of those votes are new, and how many are simply votes that won't be happening on Election Day.  

 

If a million D mail-in votes simply means a million less D votes on Election Day, then it means no effect at all on the election.  

[Momma There Goes That Man]

3 minutes ago, Larry said:

Oh, to me, the big problem with trying to analyze early voting, heck, even if you had official results, is that you have no way of knowing how many of those votes are new, and how many are simply votes that won't be happening on Election Day.  

 

If a million D mail-in votes simply means a million less D votes on Election Day, then it means no effect at all on the election.  

 

This is why I'd be curious to know what percentage of total votes in these states came on election day. If Texas is at 91% or more already, what was the percentage of it's total votes on election day? That might help give some indication of this since there has to be some threshold where "this can't possibly be new turnout" exists.

[Hersh]

The most interesting numbers to me are the actual new voters or ones that sat out 2016 and what the demographics are. 

[Larry]

I think, if I'm a pollster?  One question I'd be adding to my standard package would be "have you voted yet?"  

 

For one thing, it allows me to divide people into "likely voter" and "already voted" categories.  (Also allows me to treat "already voted" votes as more reliable than "likely" votes.  

 

And if, say, 2/3 of my "likely voters" have already voted, then it allows me to extrapolate that, if X people have voted early, then Election Day should see 0.5x additional votes.  (Also allows me to extrapolate how the "already voted" group has voted, and how the "hasn't voted yet, but plans to" pool will go.  

 

(I assume they're already asking that question.  Seems obvious.)  

 

[Mr. Sinister]

So what are you all doing to enjoy these last 7 days of Democracy? Think I might go fly a kite one day.

[Springfield]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

So what are you all doing to enjoy these last 7 days of Democracy? Think I might go fly a kite one day.

probably now, during a thunderstorm would be your best bet.

[PleaseBlitz]

9 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

So what are you all doing to enjoy these last 7 days of Democracy? Think I might go fly a kite one day.

 

Following the polls minute-by-minute.  

 

And, obviously, drinking heavily. 

[LadySkinsFan]

My county doesn't report party affiliation in its early voting and mail in ballots counted, they only report by polling place. Which is interesting if you follow these things. I only downloaded the report following Sunday's results because that's the day I voted. One way it could be useful is placement of voting places in future elections to serve specific communities. 

[Cooked Crack]

 

 

[skinsmarydu]

32 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

So what are you all doing to enjoy these last 7 days of Democracy? Think I might go fly a kite one day.

My best friend texted me a little while ago, "from the storm last night, got a tree leaning on another tree"/ I get my giddy-up on, call my tree dude (at the gym where he works out next to the restaurant I worked at years ago, and also where Mack Brown from our practice squad trained in the off-season)

During my conversation with her, she revealed that she voted for trump.  This is the woman who bailed me out of jail 25 years ago, my hockey best friend, and the person I would want to make decisions for me, if I'm not able to.  She married my other best friend twice...it's long and complicated.

She has asthma and 5 cats (we do what we gotta) , and is staying home safely while getting more done.  We're all in agreement on this point.

 

My friendships had never been compromised until about an hour ago.

[PleaseBlitz]

Biden inched up 1 to 89% in the 538 model.

 

Down 1 to 95% in the Economist model.  
 

 

 

 

 

[Corcaigh]

55 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Following the polls minute-by-minute.  

 

And, obviously, drinking heavily. 

Got to pace ourselves. This thing won’t be over on Tuesday night. I’m afraid we’ll be following the counts, recounts, and court challenges all the way into 2021.

[Springfield]

Do you all think they are amplifying the danger in that godforsaken place known as Philadelphia to hold down voter turnout and try and win PA?

 

 

11 minutes ago, Corcaigh said:

Got to pace ourselves. This thing won’t be over on Tuesday night. I’m afraid we’ll be following the counts, recounts, and court challenges all the way into 2021.

Itll be over Tuesday night when the Supreme Court steps in and royally ****s America.

[Larry]

Seeing TV ads.  (Patient's mom is streaming CBS News.  Don't know if the ads are targeted on FL or not.)  Clip after clip if Biden saying "I will raise your taxes", and then a voiceover saying something like "$6,680 per household".  

 

Assume it's a case of video editing to make him say something he didn't say.  Just Pointing it out.  

 

2 minutes ago, Springfield said:

Do you all think they are amplifying the danger in that godforsaken place known as Philadelphia to hold down voter turnout and try and win PA?

 

I would assume it's more a continuation of their "If Biden wins, then scary black people will do the things that they're already doing during my administration".  

[Llevron]

3 minutes ago, Larry said:

Seeing TV ads.  (Patient's mom is streaming CBS News.  Don't know if the ads are targeted on FL or not.)  Clip after clip if Biden saying "I will raise your taxes", and then a voiceover saying something like "$6,680 per household".  

 

Assume it's a case of video editing to make him say something he didn't say.  Just Pointing it out.  

 

 

Saw one just like that during the debate or a football game (cant remember which, but they feel like the same thing now anyway) here in MD