Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[IrepDC]

I was a huge DO NOT DRAFT a QB guy this year, because I felt we needed another year of TEAM building before our fanbase was given another "savior" QB prospect. Now that we have done what I wanted, and the team looks much more well rounded, I am back on board with the search for the next QB. I'll be scouring the NCAA scouting this season for our next QB1. 

[RWJ]

1 minute ago, IrepDC said:

I was a huge DO NOT DRAFT a QB guy this year, because I felt we needed another year of TEAM building before our fanbase was given another "savior" QB prospect. Now that we have done what I wanted, and the team looks much more well rounded, I am back on board with the search for the next QB. I'll be scouring the NCAA scouting this season for our next QB1. 

IMO, should be #1 priority in FA or the draft either one.  Another must is if you draft the QB and it must, IMO be with our 1st you MUST keep Fitz for another year.  

[Malapropismic Depository]

When you consider aggregate QB talent, would you all agree that our team is the most solid team in the league, when you consider all 3 QB's, Fitz, Heinicke, and Allen's talent level ?

Regardless whether you don't care much for 1 or 2 of them, but just looking at their talent compounded together, as compared to every other team in the league.

If it's not us, who has more aggregate talent at QB ?

I think all 3 of them would at the very least be an adequate starter for multiple teams in the NFL.

I don't know if you could say that about any other team.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

Overall, I don’t subscribe to the idea only certain guys can win. Sure, are the odds in the elite QBs favor, no doubt (as we all know). 
 

I guess I’d agree Fitz could go on the run Foles did in their SB run. He’d have to protect the ball and produce like he’s never really done. He’s played better of late, but still throws interceptions. The Foles argument isn’t a strong one on my part. I think Fitzpatrick is much better, but Foles did manage to have an elite run. 

 

Foles also didn't have to go on a long run. He came in late after Wentz (who was having an MVP level season) went down. But he did manage to hit the ground running and get hot during the playoffs and SB.

[88Comrade2000]

11 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I wanted Rodgers, but in 2022. His trade value coming off an MVP season is through the roof and if Martin offered a 1st and a 3rd for Stafford, I could see us doing maybe a touch more for Rodgers who is 5 years older than him. 

 

I'd do a 2022 1st and 3rd round pick, and a 2023 2nd round pick. That's a **** ton for a 37 year old QB that could very well decline next season but it's a gamble I would take. I dont care if we have a dynasty with multiple years of contending, I just want the best chance at one superbowl for 1 season like the Bucs last year. 

 

I dont think Aaron wants to come here though. We are still in the eyes of many, a dysfunctional organization. Next year will be a massive year for us to prove we are truly on the upswing. I think this group is special, I think most of us feel like this group is special, I think even the coaches think this is a good group, but its going to take a lot for the media and other players to catch on. 

Aaron wants to go west.

 

Denver and LA Raiders are most likely destinations.

 

Thing is; he’s not being traded this year. He will play in GB in 21 or he can retire.

[UK Skins]

I think the saddest thing about us not getting our rookie this year is the opportunity to sit behind Fitzmagic for the year. There will be much higher pressure next year for them to come in and start immediately. I realise we could re-sign him for a second year but he's not exactly young

[FootballZombie]

59 minutes ago, UK Skins said:

opportunity to sit behind Fitzmagic for the year.

 

If you build your team before getting a young QB, I'm not sure it would be in their best interest to sit, barring you don't acquire a super raw prospect.

 

If you go into a young QBs year 1 and know off the bat that you can protect him with a solid/good/great Oline, a productive run game to take pressure off of him and an elite D to cover for his mistakes, it would probably be best to get him out there early and let him develop right?

 

Time on the bench, especially behind a good mentor, can always be a boon, but if you got the squad built it is probably better to just go trial by fire IMO.

[UK Skins]

Good points Zombie. I guess it depends how raw, a Lance would need to sit I suspect but maybe not a Fields or Jones. 

[DWinzit]

33 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

If you build your team before getting a young QB, I'm not sure it would be in their best interest to sit, barring you don't acquire a super raw prospect.

 

If you go into a young QBs year 1 and know off the bat that you can protect him with a solid/good/great Oline, a productive run game to take pressure off of him and an elite D to cover for his mistakes, it would probably be best to get him out there early and let him develop right?

 

Time on the bench, especially behind a good mentor, can always be a boon, but if you got the squad built it is probably better to just go trial by fire IMO.

Agreed. Also by building the roster up it will draw interest as a destination from veteran QB's whether free agents or ones that are disgruntled with their current team. Wouldn't it be nice to start hearing players like that saying...I want to play for Coach Rivera in Washington. 

[KDawg]

8 hours ago, IrepDC said:

I was a huge DO NOT DRAFT a QB guy this year, because I felt we needed another year of TEAM building before our fanbase was given another "savior" QB prospect. Now that we have done what I wanted, and the team looks much more well rounded, I am back on board with the search for the next QB. I'll be scouring the NCAA scouting this season for our next QB1. 

Right now my favorites have been:

 

Sam Howell, UNC

Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma

Graham Mertz, Wisconsin (RS Soph in 22)

Malik Willis, Liberty

 

Ive been doing a lot of posts about it in the 22 draft thread.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 hours ago, wit33 said:

Love these numbers.

 

We have an elite QB. #favorites

 

Seriously, I think 15-20 QBs can go on a run with a great team around them. Some more likely than others, but randomness has happened from time to time. I agree Fitz is trending in a positive direction, but he still throws interceptions at a high rate compared to his peers. It’s improved though. 

 

Fitz could IMO.  There is a give and take with most styles of play.  Fitz would throw more picks but also typically is among the leaders in yards attempted.   Alex didn't throw picks but also had one of the lowest rates at throwing TDs and ditto yards per game.   One of the reasons why I didn't like Sam Darnold is you get both the conservative play and also the interceptions as well.  That's a lose-lose.  

 

My thing with Fitz as for a playoff run is he plays big typically in big games.  Like I mentioned in another post, it was cool to see PFF echo what I did which is if there is a QB that isn't an elite/great but could get hot in the playoffs is Fitz.  To me what made Foles and Eli succesful in those playoff stats wasn't that they are better game managers than Fitz but they got hot.  Both were SB MVPs, they played aggressively, they were actually good in the post season and went toe to toe with more accomplished QBs.   Fitz IMO has that in him stylistically.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-washington-football-team-sign-ryan-fitzpatrick-terry-mclaurin-2021-free-agency

 

Washington Football Team's addition of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick could spell a career year for WR Terry McLaurin

Few wide receivers have been dealt a tougher hand than Terry McLaurin during his first two seasons in the league, but that could all change thanks to the free-agency acquisition of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The veteran signal-caller agreed to terms with the Washington Football Team on a one-year deal worth $10 million, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Monday. He will enter training camp as the presumptive Week 1 starter, with competition from Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen.

 

McLaurin hasn’t had anything approaching plus quarterback play during his time in D.C.  So far, the budding star has dealt with a combination of Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins and Alex Smith under center (save for cameos from Colt McCoy, Allen and Heinicke). Over McLaurin’s career, that group has combined for an overall PFF grade of 62.4, 29th in the league. They are even lower in terms of expected points added (EPA) per play (30th), and the group is actually being dragged up by the performances from Smith and Heinicke late last season.

 

Bad quarterback play is never a good thing for a young wide receiver, but McLaurin has been hamstrung not just by the quality of the players throwing him the football but also by their style of play.

 

Smith has long been one of the league's most pathologically conservative passers, and that tendency was even more pronounced when he came back from injury in 2020. His 5.4-yard average depth of target was the lowest in the league by over a full yard, and Allen (6.4), Keenum (6.7) and McCoy (7.3) weren’t much better during their appearances in the starting role. Haskins made it up to 7.9 yards on average, which would have ranked 29th out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks in 2020.

 

The entire quarterback room has combined for just 38 big-time throws over McLaurin's two seasons in Washington. The top five quarterbacks in the league had more big-time throws than that in 2020 alone — and that doesn't even include the ones they added in the playoff

 

Enter Ryan “Fitzmagic” Fitzpatrick, the most YOLO-inspired quarterback of modern memory.

Fitzpatrick is 38 years old and has never had the best physical tools or arm strength in the league. He will never be a top-five quarterback or an All-Pro at the position, but he will put the ball in the air and give his receivers a chance to make a play.

Fitzpatrick has always had this tendency. Given his physical limitations, perhaps he realized that the only chance he has at being a high-end starter is to rely on the quality of the receivers at the other end of his passes. His season with the New York Jets in 2015 when he had Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to throw to was the best statistical season of his career, but it also yielded 26 touchdowns and 2,529 yards from Marshall and Decker combined.

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Past Washington Football Team QBs: PFF grade and rank since 2019 (among QBs with 250 or more dropbacks)

QB	PFF Grade	Rank
Ryan Fitzpatrick	76.0	18th of 44
Alex Smith	66.9	29th of 44
Dwayne Haskins	56.6	41st of 44
Kyle Allen	53.4	43rd of 44
Case Keenum	54.9	42nd of 44

 

DeVante Parker had been underachieving in Miami until Fitzpatrick entered the lineup in 2019. Then he had a breakout season in which he ranked fourth in the league in receiving yards while finishing with nine touchdowns. Both Parker (8th) and fellow Miami receiver Preston Williams (3rd) ranked in the top 10 in terms of contested-target percentage, showing Fitzpatrick's willingness to let them go up and make plays.

 

Not only does Fitzpatrick know that those 50-50 shots are an inevitable part of the game, but he also embraces it. Last season, after he had been benched for Tua Tagovailoa and then put back into the game after Tua had struggled, he was caught on camera coaching the young rookie up on the sideline and explaining that sometimes quarterbacks have to throw a contested ball. His logic was simple: sometimes quarterbacks aren't going to have all day to get through a progression to find somebody who is as open as they would like them to be.

 

This is certainly true generally in the NFL, but Fitzpatrick has probably always been more unhesitant to pull that trigger than other passers. It's not always great for his stats or even the team, but it will certainly give a boost to a wide receiver’s best friend — opportunity.

 

McLaurin has seen 219 targets since he came into the league, 21st among all receivers over that time, but he has been almost the only viable target in Washington. He trails Allen Robinson II, who can make a similar claim, by more than 80 targets.

 

Fitzpatrick coming on board should generate a rapid increase in McLaurin’s target volume. And it will only get higher if Fitzpatrick can provide enough of an upgrade at quarterback to allow the team to sustain some more drives and be more efficient on offense.

 

Fitzpatrick has been quietly playing the best football of his career over the last three years, yet he is only ever seen as a bridge to a new young quarterback. He ranks 15th among 42 qualifying passers in PFF passing grade over those three seasons, making him a slightly above-average passer in any given season.

PFF's 2021 QB 

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

I'd add going deep, 20 yards plus.  Fitzpatrick among starters was one of the best in the NFL last season.  PFF mucks up their own charts by including backups who barely even threw the ball so I'd ignore Rypien, Gabbert, etc. 

 

With the speed we got on offense and Terry and potentially Dyami Brown, it could be a fun combination.

 

Sheehan has said he knows the receiver they wanted from the draft the most with Elijah Moore but the next one was Dyami Brown.  What's the calling card of both receivers?  Speed-ball tracking-deep ball fiends. 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Burgold]

Thought I’d throw a word of caution in here. 
 

I pretty much think of every first year QB as a rookie. Even Tom Brady looked rough through the first quarter of 2020. Maybe longer. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if Fitz had a learning curve or took a while to get his timing down with his receivers. That said, Fitz may be uniquely experienced at getting up to speed fast after being on so many teams Andre so many different play callers. Still, I expect some rough play at the start of the season. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

We’re really excited about Ryan. That was a guy in free agency that we wanted to get and we were able to get him," Turner said in an upcoming Washington Football Talk Podcast episode. "You look at the last two years, he’s really played the best football of his career.”

 

Fitzpatrick has continued to play at a high level even as he entered the backend of his 30s. 2019 was his first season with the Dolphins, and he delivered 3,529 yards, 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 15 appearances and 13 starts.

 

 

Then in 2020 while slipping in and out of the starting role as Miami tried to figure out how to handle rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Fitzpatrick once again performed admirably despite never truly knowing when his name would be called. He compiled a 4-3 record in nine starts, threw for 2,091 yards and 13 touchdowns in nine games with the highest completion percentage of his career and kept the Dolphins in the playoff hunt.

In a full season of starts, Fitzpatrick would have been on pace to throw for around 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns, especially when considering the regular season is now 17 games. The interceptions -- around 16-20 -- would be of concern, but that type of production is something that Washington hasn't seen at the position in years.

 

Fitzpatrick is somewhat of a hard quarterback to read, given that his seasons are filled with highs and lows and typically lacks a large sample size of consecutive starts. Still, given that Fitzpatrick has 16 years of experience under his belt, one can hypothesize what a team will get from him during the season. A gunslinger that will make all the necessary throws, push the ball down the field and give his team an opportunity to win more times than not.

 

Based on his track record and work as of late, Turner envisions a 2021 season in which Washington gets Fitzpatrick at his best.

“Obviously he’s 38 years old, couple months younger than me, but he is playing well, he’s playing at a high level and there’s no reason to believe that he’s not going to continue that," Turner said.Washington used the offseason to give Fitzpatrick a solid chance of playing at a high level by addressing the offensive line and receiving group in free agency and the draft. That support system will help the QB succeed, but Fitzpatrick could also be key in improving Washington's offense.

Even as Washington began to win games down the stretch in 2020, it was clear that the offense was not at its full potential. Games were won by the defense while the other side of the ball used short passes and the run game to do just enough to get points on the board. 

 

Turner has recognized that the next level is to push the ball downfield, something that has become a calling card for Fitzpatrick.

"We made an emphasis about, we gotta make plays down the field in this offense to really open up everything else,” Turner said.

“To try and take that next step we gotta get some plays down the field. And that’s been an emphasis," Turner said. "Fitzpatrick’s done it, obviously, his whole career.”

Edited May 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[HigSkin]

 

ASHBURN, Va. -- Washington Football Team coach Ron Rivera noticed when the Kansas City Chiefs made their big move four years ago. He paid attention to the aggressive trades the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams made this offseason.

Those teams had their rosters ready; they just needed a quarterback they believed could take them further. And when they found that player, they struck: The Chiefs traded from the No. 27 pick to No. 10 to draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017, and the 49ers moved up nine spots this offseason to draft Trey Lance. The Rams outbid Washington for Matthew Stafford, offering the Detroit Lions two future first-round picks, a third-rounder in 2021 and quarterback Jared Goff. Washington had offered Detroit its first-round pick (No. 19 overall) in the 2021 NFL draft and a third-rounder.

Those teams serve as a blueprint for Washington, which did not draft a quarterback this year. From the moment it signed Ryan Fitzpatrick in mid-March, team sources said Washington still wanted to find its quarterback of the future, but would not force the issue and that "it could take a year or two."

Washington opted to strengthen the rest of its roster and resume the QB quest later.

"It's really about getting the right quarterback, whether it's a young guy or an old guy," said Rivera, who worked for Chiefs coach Andy Reid in Philadelphia and remains tight with him. "You've got to look and say: 'Hey, this is the fit that we want. This is the fit that we need. Now's the time.'"

 

Here's why Washington didn't draft a QB this year:

Fitzpatrick: Though he's 38 years old and signed a one-year contract, Fitzpatrick could hold the job for a few years. That is, if he continues to play as he did the past two seasons in Miami, when he and his coaches felt he was playing the best ball of his career. Over the past two seasons, Fitzpatrick had the NFL's seventh-best total QBR at 71.5, sandwiched between Seattle's Russell Wilson and Houston's Deshaun Watson.

 

Unlike his previous stops, Fitzpatrick does not have an obvious replacement. Washington does have Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen and Steven Montez, and while there's a level of intrigue with each, they aren't being groomed as The Guy. As coaches have told Fitzpatrick: It's yours to keep. And if he does well, there's no reason why the team couldn't extend him after this season. If he struggles, the team can seek a replacement.

 

Like, not love in the draft: There was no true consensus in Washington on which quarterback to draft. Some in the organization favored Ohio State's Justin Fields, others liked Lance and another group wanted Alabama's Mac Jones. Without a consensus, the team wasn't going to surrender draft capital to move up for any of them. However, if one had fallen to Washington at No. 19, the team likely would have pounced.

In 2019, at the behest of owner Dan Snyder and then-president Bruce Allen, Washington drafted Dwayne Haskins Jr. at No. 15 overall. The front office and coaching staff, as has been well-documented, was not in agreement with the Haskins pick. In part to appease the coaches, Washington traded back into the first round and selected defensive end Montez Sweat.

 

But, as one source said, what if the team had drafted, say, safety Darnell Savage at No. 15 -- as some there wanted to do -- and also traded back into the first for Sweat? The defense would be better. Washington wanted to avoid a similar scenario in 2021.

 

Build that roster: The Carolina Panthers' downfall when Rivera was their coach occurred, in part, because of key draft misses from 2014 to 2016. In that three-year stretch, they missed on first-round picks Kelvin Benjamin (wide receiver) and Vernon Butler (defensive tackle), and on second-round choice Kony Ealy (pass-rusher).

 

That was in the back of Rivera's mind. Forcing a pick in the early rounds, and then missing on it, would not be conducive to good roster building. Whether Washington's early picks all hit in 2021 and beyond remains to be seen, but the team stuck to its philosophy of how it wanted to build. Though Washington won the NFC East in 2020, it did so with a 7-9 record. The team improved last season, but the organization knows work remains to become a consistent contender.

 

Washington did like quarterbacks Davis Mills (Stanford) and Kyle Trask (Florida), but early in the process, one source said the team would consider Trask in the third round. Rather than drafting one too high, it opted for Texas offensive tackle Sam Cosmi with the No. 51 pick in Round 2. By the time Washington selected in the third round, both quarterbacks were gone. The team knew that likely would be the case.

Washington selected speedy wide receiver Dyami Brown in the third round after signing Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries in free agency. It recently traded for guard Ereck Flowers to provide more depth for the offensive line.

 

Despite not drafting a quarterback, Washington improved its offense, which wasn't hard to do. In the past three years, its best finish in total yards or points was last season -- when it ranked 25th in points per game. It has finished in the top 10 in one of those categories only twice since 2012. The team hopes changes this year after adding more speed with Samuel and Brown to complement top wide receiver Terry McLaurin; improvement from second-year running back Antonio Gibson will be key.

 

"We've put playmakers around, and then we got an experienced quarterback in Fitz," Rivera said, "[Who] we think can really do a good job distributing the ball for us and has the arm strength to get that ball down field. We felt like we solidified the offensive line."

 

Washington also hopes it improved its defense by signing cornerback William Jackson III, and drafting linebacker Jamin Davis in the first round and corner Benjamin St-Juste in the third. Washington drafted 10 players, adding to the eight it picked last year -- all of whom remain on the roster.

 

By adding so much youth now, Washington is building its roster with lesser-priced talent, giving it the ability to be more aggressive pursuing a quarterback in the future, whether via a trade or the draft. If it's a rookie, that would allow Washington to have a lower-priced quarterback when other key players will be in line for massive pay raises.

 

"It means to get younger, healthier, faster and with the salary cap, to get cheaper," Washington general manager Martin Mayhew said. "We want to build this team through the draft. We want to supplement our draft process through free agency and for us, where we are as a football team right now, we see investing in this group right now with draft picks is going to make us better fast."

 

And, as Rivera has said, the better they get the more aggressive they can become.

 

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by HigSkin

[Skinsinparadise]

lol, was posting the same thing as higskins, I'll take it off here

 

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[goskins10]

I believe people are spending too much time focusing on the team not drafting a QB and downgrading the draft because of it.  They have a plan. They are being disciplined in their approach and not drafting just any QB out of panic.  
 

Keep building the team until you find the QB they really like.  

[justice98]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My thing with Fitz as for a playoff run is he plays big typically in big games.

 

 

 

 

I'm sorry, say what now?  What big games has he EVER played in in his entire career?  He of the 59-86-1 record as a starter and zero playoff appearances.  Even his best year as a starter, 2015 with the Jets, when he threw 31 TDs and the Jets went 10-6, in Week 17, with the playoffs on the line, as close to a big game as he had, our man went 16-37, 181yds, 2TD/3INTs.  In his entire career, his passer rating in Dec/Jan is 77.3.  Not that that even matters, because those games almost never mean anything because the teams he's on are usually out of it by then.

 

Even his splits in the 2nd half of games, 4th quarter and overtime aren't particularly good.  There is literally zero evidence that when the lights are brightest, late in games, late in the season, high leverage spots, that our boy rises to the occasion. His style of play is one thing, the actual results are something totally different. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

56 minutes ago, justice98 said:

 

I'm sorry, say what now?  What big games has he EVER played in in his entire career?  He of the 59-86-1 record as a starter and zero playoff appearances.  Even his best year as a starter, 2015 with the Jets, when he threw 31 TDs and the Jets went 10-6, in Week 17, with the playoffs on the line, as close to a big game as he had, our man went 16-37, 181yds, 2TD/3INTs.  In his entire career, his passer rating in Dec/Jan is 77.3.  Not that that even matters, because those games almost never mean anything because the teams he's on are usually out of it by then.

 

Even his splits in the 2nd half of games, 4th quarter and overtime aren't particularly good.  There is literally zero evidence that when the lights are brightest, late in games, late in the season, high leverage spots, that our boy rises to the occasion. His style of play is one thing, the actual results are something totally different. 

 

 

 

I don't mean this sarcastically but your post helps makes my case for Fitzpatrick better than anything I've thrown on here so far.  Because you characterized his career.  And even threw the stats on that front to help me go apples to apples with old versus new.  It sets up the perfect way for me to explain even using your data how this dude is different later in his career. 

 

In "his entire career" isn't the way IMO to look at Fitz.   The way to slam Fitz with stats is to do the "his entire career" drill.  If that's the perspective than signing Fitz is a terrible move.  But clearly Ron buys the new narrative about Fitz.  He's talked about it plenty.  I buy it too.   So as to the average Fitz season in his career, clearly Rivera doesn't give a rats behind about it including what happened with the Jets.    But talking about the Jets how easy is it to go 10-6 with that hot mess?  It ended up their best season in the last 10 years.  And that's with "bad" Fitz.

 

He's a different dude in later years.  It's not a secret that he's played for some bad teams and has never played in the playoffs.  Also clearly there are two different raps on Fitz as for national perception.  Those in the media that summarize his career in one fell swoop like you do here which is Ryan from Buffalo or name that juncture in his career is the same Ryan today, lets lump his whole career that way.   I get the instinct because that principle would apply to most players. 

 

Or the other seemingly larger camp which is Ryan has improved as he's aged.  Seems like more people are in the later group.  Not that it matters who believes what.  Will see.  My perspective is I've seen most of his games in Miami, and I am with PFF he presents a significant upgrade to what we've had in recent years.  And yeah to my eyes he plays like a gamer.   

 

 Ryan has talked about playing his best ball as he's gotten older.   Those who covered him in Miami have said the same.  As has PFF among other outfits.   He had the 7th best QBR rating in the league in the last two seasons.   New narrative.   New drill.  

 

It's well documented that Ryan hasn't played in the playoffs yet.  I know it.  So does PFF. We both made the same point that he's the type of dude who could get hot in the post season.   He comes off like a gamer. Maybe I am bit taken away by this point because I was at the game where he rallied the Dolphins when they looked dead against us and could have beaten us if not for the weird 2 point play.  I watched the whole game where he rallied the team against the Raiders.  It was night and day when Tua was benched and he came in. 

 

Your passing rating point actually helps my point of then versus now.   You refer back to the Jets game for the playoffs.  When he played a key game late in the season with the playoffs on the line on prime time TV for Miami, he had a comeback for the ages.    Sadly after that he got COVID-19. 

 

He had 4 comebacks/4th quarter game winning TD drives when he started in 2019.  That was a career high.  New Fitz.  New narrative.  Numbers back it up.  And people who watched him in Miami including from my perspective one of the most cynical sports writers in Miami who covers that team backs up that narrative.  I've never advocated Fitz in FA or even pushed him in the past from what I recall.  But the Miami version which I saw i liked a lot.  And he played with a garbage offense.  I am looking forward to see what he does with a much better offense than what he had in Miami (considering our off season upgrades)  

 

Passer Rating 2020 last 5 games

137.5

97.9

61.6

93.3

154.5

 

Passer Rating 2019 last 5 games

99.6

103

93.4

65.7

113.7

 

you say he's a 77 passer rating guy late in the season.  Apparently not anymore. 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[IrepDC]

4 hours ago, KDawg said:

Right now my favorites have been:

 

Sam Howell, UNC

Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma

Graham Mertz, Wisconsin (RS Soph in 22)

Malik Willis, Liberty

 

Ive been doing a lot of posts about it in the 22 draft thread.

Howell and Rattler are definitely on my radar. He may not come out next year, but Grayson McCall is intriguing also. That game last year where we were all scouting Zach Wilson, McCall out played him in my opinion- as a freshman. I'm working my way through all the 22 draft posts now. 

[justice98]

34 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I don't mean this sarcastically but your post helps makes my case for Fitzpatrick better than anything I've thrown on here so far.  Because you characterized his career.  And even threw the stats on that front to help me go apples to apples with old versus new.  It sets up the perfect way for me to explain even using your data how this dude is different later in his career. 

 

In "his entire career" isn't the way IMO to look at Fitz.   The way to slam Fitz with stats is to do the "his entire career" drill.  If that's the perspective than signing Fitz is a terrible move.  But clearly Ron buys the new narrative about Fitz.  He's talked about it plenty.  I buy it too.   So as to the average Fitz season in his career, clearly Rivera doesn't give a rats behind about it including what happened with the Jets.    But talking about the Jets how easy is it to go 10-6 with that hot mess?  It ended up their best season in the last 10 years.  And that's with "bad" Fitz.

 

He's a different dude in later years.  It's not a secret that he's played for some bad teams and has never played in the playoffs.  Also clearly there are two different raps on Fitz as for national perception.  Those in the media that summarize his career in one fell swoop like you do here which is Ryan from Buffalo or name that juncture in his career is the same Ryan today, lets lump his whole career that way.   I get the instinct because that principle would apply to most players. 

 

Or the other seemingly larger camp which is Ryan has improved as he's aged.  Seems like more people are in the later group.  Not that it matters who believes what.  Will see.  My perspective is I've seen most of his games in Miami, and I am with PFF he presents a significant upgrade to what we've had in recent years.  And yeah to my eyes he plays like a gamer.   

 

 Ryan has talked about playing his best ball as he's gotten older.   Those who covered him in Miami have said the same.  As has PFF among other outfits.   He had the 7th best QBR rating in the league in the last two seasons.   New narrative.   New drill.  

 

It's well documented that Ryan hasn't played in the playoffs yet.  I know it.  So does PFF. We both made the same point that he's the type of dude who could get hot in the post season.   He comes off like a gamer. Maybe I am bit taken away by this point because I was at the game where he rallied the Dolphins when they looked dead against us and could have beaten us if not for the weird 2 point play.  I watched the whole game where he rallied the team against the Raiders.  It was night and day when Tua was benched he came in. 

 

Your passing rating point actually helps my point of then versus now.   You refer back to the Jets game for the playoffs.  When he played a key game late in the season with the playoffs on the line on prime time TV for Miami, he had a comeback for the ages.    Sadly after that he got COVID-19,

 

He had 4 comebacks/4th quarter game winning TD drives when he started in 2019.  That was a career high.  New Fitz.  New narrative.  Numbers back it up.  And people who watched him in Miami including from my perspective one of the most cynical sports writers in Miami who covers that team backs it up.  

 

Passer Rating 2020 last 5 games

137.5

97.9

61.6

93.3

154.5

 

Passer Rating 2019 last 5 games

99.6

103

93.4

65.7

113.7

 

you say he's a 77 passer rating guy late in the season.  Apparently not anymore. 

 

 

 

 

 

Umm, his last 5 games in 2020?  He played in 3 games after October, only starting 1.  So his last 5 games, you have to go all the way back to Week 5.  lol  He barely had any games late in the season.  Even in 2019, they finished 5-11.  What big spots was he in? I guess you can make the argument he turned it up down the stretch when the season was over and nothing was on the line.  But why would you want to make that argument as a selling point?  Even in those games, he was a first half QB.  His numbers fell off a cliff in the 2nd half of games. 

 

I believe we have the talent and coaching to make some real noise, but not with these QBs.  That's our achilles heel and it will hold us back this year.

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by justice98

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I'm cool with what we've got right now in Fitz. But ... I feel like the situation in Green Bay results in one of two options ...

1. Rodgers gets traded

2. GM gets fired, Love gets traded, Rodgers stays

 

I don't think Rodgers comes here, but if scenario #2 unfolds, I wonder if we could pry Jordan Love from GB for cheap ... like a 2022 2nd rounder, and would we take that option and sit him behind Fitz for 2021 ... or at least compete for 2021 and see what unfolds from there? I guess you'd have to be high on Love as a staff.

[Inigo Montoya]

1 hour ago, justice98 said:

 

Umm, his last 5 games in 2020?  He played in 3 games after October, only starting 1.  So his last 5 games, you have to go all the way back to Week 5.  lol  He barely had any games late in the season.  Even in 2019, they finished 5-11.  What big spots was he in? I guess you can make the argument he turned it up down the stretch when the season was over and nothing was on the line.  But why would you want to make that argument as a selling point?  Even in those games, he was a first half QB.  His numbers fell off a cliff in the 2nd half of games. 

 

I believe we have the talent and coaching to make some real noise, but not with these QBs.  That's our achilles heel and it will hold us back this year.

 

 

If we would have gotten Alex Smith level play the entire year last year, would our team have had a better record? 

 

Our QB was SO bad the last few years, that R Fitz... even if you aren't sold on him is a major upgrade. Our whole roster got better. Our team would be better this year with Alex smith level play just based on adding a few more pieces and not losing any. The only thing holding us back this year is our schedule, if we perform against the top of the NFC, we could make some noise in the postseason. 

 

Fitz is so much better than anything we've had in DC in a long time and I'm so confused why people are still moping around about it. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, justice98 said:

 

Umm, his last 5 games in 2020?  He played in 3 games after October, only starting 1.  So his last 5 games, you have to go all the way back to Week 5.  lol  He barely had any games late in the season.  Even in 2019, they finished 5-11.  What big spots was he in? I guess you can make the argument he turned it up down the stretch when the season was over and nothing was on the line.  But why would you want to make that argument as a selling point?  Even in those games, he was a first half QB.  His numbers fell off a cliff in the 2nd half of games. 

 

I believe we have the talent and coaching to make some real noise, but not with these QBs.  That's our achilles heel and it will hold us back this year.

 

 

Why would I make the argument?  You can "um and lol" me all you like.  I make points because I believe them.  I can make whatever argument pleases me. I get you don't care for the player.  That's cool.  That's your business.  I got a different take on the player.

 

I got enough stats to back my point.   I can select stats on almost any QB who isn't elite to make many different type of cases.   But my opinion about players I watch (ditto prospects in the draft) is predicated by watching them.  And then I refer to the stats.  And there are plenty of stats to back my argument if that's all we want to hang our hat on.   If I've seen enough of a player I form an impression of said player.  I've seen enough of the Miami version of Fitz including watching him play live multiple times to be confident enough in my own head to argue what type of player he is.  I might end up wrong.  But you arguing with me about what you didn't like as for what happened with the Jets or wherever and random stats, etc doesn't sway me off of my take even a whit.  

 

Why?  I don't give a crap about his past pre Miami.  And I got plenty of my own random stats to make the case that he's plenty clutch.  You hit me on his passer ratings late in the season in the post before your last one.  Making the case he fades when the season finishes. I hit you back that his passer ratings was really good late in the season in the last 2 seasons.  Throw out the 2 October games if it pleases you, the point still stands.    And his win record in his last games is really good on that front in the last 2 years.

 

OK so now its we can't make the case that he plays well in the clutch because he doesn't have clutch type games to play in.   In your prior post you focused on the Jets game in 2016 and felt compelled to hit him on that.  I hit back that he had a career game for Miami with the playoffs on the line, with a play that will probably be aired for decades from now.  Yet, crickets on that one.    Clutch to me involves big moments in big games.  The game on its own doesn't have to be momentous.   Derek Jeter was one of the more clutch players of all time but it wasn't just him in the post season, it was him in big moments in games.  I think the current version of Fitz has that dynamic.  If you don't.  That's cool. Lets agree to disagree. 😀

 

I like Kirk more than most but i don't think he's clutch.  I've watched enough of Kirk where I can factor context and notice what stats are relevant or not.  But If I am trying to convince a dude who hasn't seen Kirk play much -- I can make the dude look like the Joe Montana of clutch.  There are enough selective stats I can find to make that case.   Conversely, I can attack him on that.  It's all about context.  Stats alone don't tell a story. That's all me and you are doing here.   You are throwing stats to make one case.  I am throwing stats to make another case.  

 

You can act like my point is coming from Mars all you like.  It doesn't change that there are others who see it the same way who have talked about Fitz likewise as a gamer and the kind of dude you want with a game on the line.     Stats can be selectively used to make different cases.  Lets start with your favorite stat to characterize him.  Passer rating.  Passer rating is old school.  QBR is the most commonly used.  If you go with QBR which factors context more.  Fitz is ranked 5th last year.  If you go with QB rating he's middle of the pack.   

 

In the last 5 games in 2019 they ended 4-1,  in his last 5 games in 2020 they finished 3-2.     7-3 record.  Not that I give a rats behind about it.   But if you are going to say he doesn't play well late in seasons citing his passer ratings.  And you say he doesn't play well with the playoffs on the line ciiting the Jets game from 2016.   I can counter all of that.  Again through the lense of the last 2 years

 

I see the late game stat hit you use against him.  But that deserves context too.   If you are playing for a crappy team which he did at least on his side of the ball -- you take more chances coming from behind.  He does take more chances.  You throw picks late in the game that will tank your QB rating.  Fitz has talked about it in interviews.  But even with all of that, it wasn't bad.   If we go with his more pedestrian ratings guide which you like to use for Fitz which is passer rating.   He has a pedestrian rating overall.  He also has a pedestrian rating in the 4th quarter.   If the game is close, he's top 3 in the league also using the pedestrain QB rating metric for Fitz.  

 

Like I said the last season he started, 2019, he had a career high 4 comeback/game winnng drives.   He was one of the top QBs in the league in just comebacks that season.  That doesn't paint a picture of a dude who struggles in the clutch.  Again new narrative not the old one.   

 

But look you are obviously entitled to your take on Fitz.  That he is a liability. He's same old same old.  He plays poorly when the games are on the line, late in the season or whatever floats your boat.  That's cool.  But I am as fired up that the dude is clutch late in his career and is a different player now.  And yeah I can back it with stats if I choose.  I get your perspective -- I don't find your take to be crazy.   My argument with you is basically that you are suggesting that my point is off the wall with no merit to it.   That I find to be a bit crazy.  I am not some dude alone on the ocean who subscribes to this point that the dude is playing well late in his career and he has some gamer in him. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[bearrock]

As the team gets better, it obviously becomes harder to draft a top end of the first round rookie QB (but probably becomes somewhat easier to sign a veteran QB).  Yet, the chances of finding a HOF caliber franchise QB (or even just a perennial top 10 QB), even with a top 5 pick, is very low (as the fans of this team well know).  The only way to get one is either hit the jackpot with a top pick in one of the "Can't Miss QB Prospect" years or just keep taking QBs in the draft (early, mid, late, whenever) till you get lucky and hit one.  

 

The benefit of a young, top caliber QB is that, barring injury, it pretty much cements your team's ability to contend for a long time.  It's far easier to retool and rebuild around a top flight QB, giving you multiple shots at constructing that championship window during that QB's career.

 

But that's obviously not the only way to contend.  Teams like the Ravens, the Giants, and the Eagles have won in years where a normally middle of the pack QB got hot at exactly the right time, surrounded by a great cast.  This is not a recipe to contend year in and year out, but can win you a championship (or even two like Eli).  You can also go the historically great defense route too, though I would argue that such path is probably hardest of all the paths to a championship (and getting harder with rule changes favoring the offense).

 

At the end of the day, upgrading WFT's QB situation is not going to be easy going forward, partly because Fitzgerald is a very solid option when you go the veteran QB route.  Unless the last few years were a mirage, not every QB needy team can find someone of Fitzgerald's caliber in the offseason.  Is Fitzgerald the type of QB who can carry a team to the SB?  Obviously not, but few are.  Can he pull a Flacco, Eli, or Foles? He probably has a "stars aligned" playoff run in him.

 

I think Rivera wanted Stafford to make the window a little longer.  This team only has a few more years with this rookie core before they start to get expensive.  Once Sweat, Payne, Young, McClaurin are due for extensions, they will need to find their performance bargains elsewhere.  As it stands now, Fitzgerald may be the QB for about half of that window if everything works out.  It will be nice if they have a long term QB solution in place by then, but that's obviously difficult.