Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[KDawg]

10 minutes ago, Burgold said:

I don't think there actually is a chance the next QB of the WFT is Kirk Cousins. For one thing, Cousins wouldn't consider it unless we offered him an enormous wad of cash. For another, his play while statistically impressive in Washington and Minnesota has proven he isn't worth an enormous wad of cash.

Think about it. Would you really offer him forty million dollars per year (to correct a wrong) and guarantee yourself a 7-10 or 8-9 season?

He won’t get paid that much and all the guys he’s had problems with are gone.

[wit33]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

You are taking the debate in a different direction.  Forget paying an elite guy, or great guy or just good guy, etc.   What are they worth, etc.  The debate we are having is how do you find that guy period and develop them. 

I think it’s all inclusive:  Capital and assets required to get a QB are directly related to plan to obtain, develop, or keep a QB. 

 

20 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think you misread what I said.

 

I said “if we re-sign Fitz next offseason”. 
 

I then said 2022 offseason but obviously meant 2023.

Kirk at 5-7% of the cap is good to me

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, wit33 said:

I think it’s all inclusive:  Capital and assets required to get a QB are directly related to plan to obtain, develop, or keep a QB. 

 

 

Not that part I was debating.  We were debating how hard or isn't it hard to find a QB in the draft.  Haskins issues for example had nada to do with cap allocation.  

 

But I see the topic has now taken a left turn about Kirk.  So it might be on point now. 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

27 minutes ago, KDawg said:

He won’t get paid that much and all the guys he’s had problems with are gone.

 

I admit it never crossed my mind that he'd come back here.   But you make a good point from what I heard he didn't like Bruce Allen and it became mutual.  Ditto Allen and Kirk's agent.  

 

I can see guys like Rivera and Jason Wright being totally up his alley.   

 

Having said that, he will be oldish (35 by the time he runs through his contract in 2022).

Edited May 4, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Burgundy Yoda]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Nope but that wasn't my point.  My point was post season driven.  I've battled the Kirk haters aplenty when he was here.   So I am relatively friendly to Kirk.  Kirk is a streaky QB.  Kind of like Romo.  I find it funny every year it seems when Kirk gets off to his annual slow start that some destroy him as if this proves he's some sort of scrub.  Then he heats up like he always does.  And then he will cool off for awhile and then heat up again. Overall, he will have more good games than bad.   My point on rehashing this is there is something in common between Fitz and Kirk and that is their streakiness.  They will both have hot and cold fazes more than most.  But when they are hot they tend to be red hot. 

 

My issue with Kirk is his play in big games with everything on the line.  He's not IMO the disaster that some say he is on that front.  But IMO he's "meh" in big games.  His detractors like to say he never plays well with the game on the line.  I disagree.  He has moments especially in the 4th quarter.  But is Kirk a guy I'd bet on to march a team through the playoffs?  Nope.  Could he win a playoff game.  Sure.  Which he has. But I wouldn't bet on him to take a team all the way. Sample size is getting too big on that now.  Is Alex Smith the guy I want outdueling name that big QB in the playoffs?  Nope.  Was Mark Brunell?  Nope.  Could they maybe win a game?  Sure. 

 

It's not that I think Fitz can plow through the playoffs where I'd count on it.    But he seems to play his best at times when the lights are the brightest.  So i'd bet on his streakiness in the playoffs specifically over Kirk.   As for during the season, I'd take Kirk.  In the playoffs, I'd take Fitz.  And I don't think Fitz is a mile off from Kirk during the season.  He finished 5th in QBR last year.  I admit I am more of an optimist than most on Fitz but I buy into the narrative that he's getting better with age. 

 

The argument some give about hey look at Foles or look at Eli and that proves how defenses win championships and they can just bring the QB along for the ride and you don't need a top guy, etc.  My rebuttal to that is two fold:

 

A.  It's rare.  It's the outlier not the most common way it happens. 

 

B.  Those QBs got hot in the post season.  They were a key part of the SB wins -- winning SB MVPS, etc.   They weren't just supporting actors -- they were the lead actors.  They got hot at the right time. 

 

 

If I am running with an outlier type QB who is streaky and can get hot in big games.  Fizpatrick fits that profile IMO.  I made that point awhile ago.  It was cool to see someone from PFF make a similar point recently.    The reason why I liked hearing the same point from PFF is they are really snobby about the QB spot -- PFF is certaintly in the you need a big time Qb to win big in the NFL crowd. 

I'm also relatively friendly to Kirk, I thought he was the best QB we've had in a long long time and a low end franchise QB. I agree with you that Fitzpatrick would have the tendency to go off in the post-season, he seems to have that big game swagger to him that Kirk never had. I think our record with Kirk was terrible on any game that was nationally televised. I still can't believe Fitzpatrick never made the playoffs, he had a good season with the Jets and they went 10-6 I think but never made the playoffs. I'm excited about Fitzpatrick, I think he is a really good leader for the type of young team that we have, he's the type of guy that they can rally around and look up to, similar to Alex Smith in that sense, but a different leadership style. 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[mistertim]

39 minutes ago, KDawg said:

He won’t get paid that much and all the guys he’s had problems with are gone.

 

I'd still have a hard time seeing him come back here. Yeah the old FO is gone, but he probably still wouldn't think it worth it to go back to a place that he left on such bad terms unless we we're willing to overpay. Which I hope we aren't.

 

Not out of the realm of possibility though, I suppose. 

 

He wouldn't be a horrible QB to have, but I'd kinda rather go in a different direction. I still think he has too many problems in big games or big situations. I wouldn't trust him to be able to take us any farther than he has with us in the past or with Minny.

[Skinsinparadise]

44 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I'm also relatively friendly to Kirk, I thought he was the best QB we've had in a long long time and a low end franchise QB. I agree with you that Fitzpatrick would have the tendency to go off in the post-season, he seems to have that big game swagger to him that Kirk never had. I think our record with Kirk was terrible on any game that was nationally televised. I still can't believe Fitzpatrick never made the playoffs, he had a good season with the Jets and they went 10-6 I think but never made the playoffs. I'm excited about Fitzpatrick, I think he is a really good leader for the type of young team that we have, he's the type of guy that they can rally around and look up to, similar to Alex Smith in that sense, but a different leadership style. 

 

Swagger is the right word.  Alex is a good leader in a calming guy in the huddle type way versus bringing any type of swagger -- he doesn't have a hot record in the playoffs which to me fits because there is limit to that game managing style especially when you go up against a prolific QB on the other side.  Kirk isn't a big game guy typically.  He has more moments than his critics give him IMO credit for but I don't see him winning three consecutive games in the playoffs.  

 

Ryan has played for a lot of bad teams.  If Miami let him start the full season last year I think they would have made the playoffs.  Like your example with the Jets, the Dolphins missed the playoffs at 10-6, too. 

 

My prediction is that Ryan becomes by a mile the most popular QB we've had since RG3 2012.  Kirk and Alex were IMO nice guys but not really fun guys.  Their personalities were a bit understated.  Ryan isn't an understated kind of guy.  He has plenty of personality both on and off the field. 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[wit33]

 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Swagger is the right word.  Alex is a good leader in a calming guy in the huddle type way versus bringing any type of swagger -- he doesn't have a hot record in the playoffs which to me fits because there is limit to that game managing style especially when you go up against a prolific QB on the other side.  Kirk isn't a big game guy typically.  He has more moments than his critics give him IMO credit for but I don't see him winning three consecutive games in the playoffs. 
 

 

What’s the argument: The prolific QB is going to beat the game manager most of the time? Does prolific mean elite? Of course the elite QB is most likely to win, but I’d disagree it’s any more likely versus a middle of the road QB like a Cousins or Fitzpatrick. 

 

I don’t believe Fitzpatrick or Cousins could’ve managed the games like Foles, Manning, Eli, Brady, or Big Ben when all these guys were game managers. There are levels to game management. *Completely subjective on my part obviously, but I don’t subscribe to lumping all game managers together. 
 

 

Quote

 

My prediction is that Ryan becomes by a mile the most popular QB we've had since RG3 2012.  Kirk and Alex were IMO nice guys but not really fun guys.  Their personalities were a bit understated.  Ryan isn't an understated kind of guy.  He has plenty of personality both on and off the field. 
 

 

 

Im going as far as thinking this may turn into a Rich Gannon with the Raiders. Some fandom in me, but it’s not a ridiculous thought. The scheme and talent all around appear to be a great fit for Fitz. 

Edited May 5, 2021 by wit33

[burgngold fan]

Kirk cousins would destroy this teams make up with his atrocious salary demands.  And clearly not worth it.  Vikings went from super bowl contenders too not making playoffs.   Just say no to kc

[Skinsinparadise]

22 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

What’s the argument: The prolific QB is going to beat the game manager most of the time? Does prolific mean elite? Of course the elite QB is most likely to win, but I’d disagree it’s any more likely versus a middle of the road QB like a Cousins or Fitzpatrick. 

 

I don’t believe Fitzpatrick or Cousins could’ve managed the games like Foles, Manning, Eli, Brady, or Big Ben when all these guys were game managers. There are levels to game management. *Completely subjective on my part obviously, but I don’t subscribe to lumping all game managers together. 
 

Im going as far as thinking this may turn into a Rich Gannon with the Raiders. Some fandom in me, but it’s not a ridiculous thought. The scheme and talent all around appear to be a great fit for Fitz. 

 

Brady to me is an elite QB.  Game manager is just part of the repertiore of his skills.  Many elite QBs were game managers too.  Drew Brees, Peyton among others.  Disagree big time with your point about Foles versus Fitz, etc.  But its a boring debate for me so I don't feel like engaging in it.  

 

What and I and Thinkingskins among others were debating was how easy or hard is it to find a franchise QB and where in the draft is the best place to do it and can you skip finding an elite or great QB and your odds are just as good as a team with that elite and great QB to be a consistent contender and SB threat.  The idea was to bring the point to our current situation.

 

[RWJ]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Brady to me is an elite QB.  Game manager is just part of the repertiore of his skills.  Many elite QBs were game managers too.  Drew Brees, Peyton among others.  Disagree big time with your point about Foles versus Fitz, etc.  But its a boring debate for me so I don't feel like engaging in it.  

 

What and I and Thinkingskins among others were debating was how easy or hard is it to find a franchise QB and where in the draft is the best place to do it and can you skip finding an elite or great QB and your odds are just as good as a team with that elite and great QB to be a consistent contender and SB threat.  The idea was to bring the point to our current situation.

 

He really should go down at the GOAT.  For many reasons.  I respect him. I'll leave it at that. 

[wit33]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Brady to me is an elite QB.  Game manager is just part of the repertiore of his skills.  Many elite QBs were game managers too.  Drew Brees, Peyton among others.  Disagree big time with your point about Foles versus Fitz, etc.  But its a boring debate for me so I don't feel like engaging in it.  

 

What and I and Thinkingskins among others were debating was how easy or hard is it to find a franchise QB and where in the draft is the best place to do it and can you skip finding an elite or great QB and your odds are just as good as a team with that elite and great QB to be a consistent contender and SB threat.  The idea was to bring the point to our current situation.

 

Fascinating debate to me and look forward to seeing how the next ten years play out in this new QB market. 
 

Meant those guys winning SBs when they were game managers (Brady his second year). 
 

But I will bow out, due to your boredom with the topic. 

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

Eisen thinks a settlement is on the horizon with Deshaun and the lawsuits. And he could be traded sooner rather then later. This is all assuming their aren’t any criminal charges pressed. 
 

Just sharing the info.. He’s a depressed asset atm. Could be an option for someone real soon it sounds like..

[Skinsinparadise]

21 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Fascinating debate to me and look forward to seeing how the next ten years play out in this new QB market. 
 

Meant those guys winning SBs when they were game managers (Brady his second year). 
 

But I will bow out, due to your boredom with the topic. 

 

For me its very interesting to see what our team does next.   I got a good idea of what fascinates you about QBs from all your posts over the years.  To me much of that is off topic for our current situation at this moment in time or at least not the main plot. 

 

As for Fitz, all I'll say is i've watched him a lot.  And if you don't think he can game manage at Nick Foles' level than we are on different planets on that one.   I think you might be pleasantly surprised.  But who knows.  Will see. 

Edited May 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

I would not want Kirk in anyway shape or form. I don’t care how much he costs, cheap or not that dude burned his bridge with me. 

[Anselmheifer]

5 minutes ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

Eisen thinks a settlement is on the horizon with Deshaun and the lawsuits. And he could be traded sooner rather then later. This is all assuming their aren’t any criminal charges pressed. 
 

Just sharing the info.. He’s a depressed asset atm. Could be an option for someone real soon it sounds like..

I wonder if he’s totally off Ron’s list of possibilities. Doesn’t seem like a character fit. But Ron also wants to win. I feel like part of his schtick is that character helps you win. And I do agree with that. But, so does elite QB play.

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

19 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

I wonder if he’s totally off Ron’s list of possibilities. Doesn’t seem like a character fit. But Ron also wants to win. I feel like part of his schtick is that character helps you win. And I do agree with that. But, so does elite QB play.

Yeah not sure, I mean, if it’s settled it’s settled and no criminal charges then he’s clear.  Idk how they’d view it. Would be interesting to see though. It’s happening one way or the other from the sounds of it. He mentions the Eagles as a possible spot, Dolphins too, with their draft capital.  So we may be dealing directly with him anyways if he’s in the division, which would be awful. 

Edited May 5, 2021 by COWBOY-KILLA-

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

Perhaps the most underrated part of Washington’s offseason is that Fitzpatrick is a major upgrade over their quarterback situation from a season ago. He may be 38 years old, but the past three years of his NFL career have been his best yet. He ranks 15th in PFF passing grade over that time, almost exactly league average.

And while a league-average quarterback isn’t what everybody’s chasing, it’s a significantly better baseline than the combination of Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen and Alex Smith from 2020. Taylor Heinicke played far better than that in his playoff cameo, but his NFL career consists of just 138 dropbacks, so who knows what he is capable of over a 17-game schedule going forward.

 

 

...What the Football Team have done to try and tilt the board in their favor is to surround him with as much talent as possible, therefore increasing the chances of good Fitzpatrick. As a quarterback, Fitzpatrick is unusually susceptible to the variances in supporting cast, in part because he trends towards the YOLO end of the spectrum. Fitzpatrick knows he can’t rival Patrick Mahomes for physical tools and raw talent, but he can give his receivers a chance to make plays, putting the outcome in the hands of elite playmakers more than his own.

 

Some of Fitzpatrick’s best play has come when he has had high-end receivers to go up and win contested targets. His season with the Jets when they had Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker was impressive, and it was Fitzpatrick who rescued DeVante Parker‘s career in Miami when he had struggled to make an impact early.

 

Washington has had Terry McLaurin running a one-man receiver show since he entered the league, but they added Curtis Samuel as a free agent and then Dyami Brown in the draft, a player who had an average depth of target of 18.4 yards in his entire career at North Carolina, averaging over 20 yards per catch over the past two seasons.

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[heyholetsgogrant]

7 hours ago, wit33 said:

Brady should be eliminated from all arguments, due to his unique willingness (in today’s market) to work with the team in sustaining success by remaining in and around 8-12% of the cap. This was strategic and differs from other elite QBs getting every possible dollar they can. This upcoming season he will count 5% against the TB salary cap. His approach is old school and legacy driven. 
 

More time is needed to input new data relating to the elite and top 12-14 QBs looking to maximize dollars each year and how that relates and compares to winning with QBs on rookie deals or starters being paid 3-10% of the cap. For example, Russel Wilson hasn’t come close to the SB after being paid elite dollars; should there another tier level of expectations for the elite guys getting paid elite money.
 

The time will come when nuanced arguments of A Fitzpatrick at 10mil having more value than a Wilson at 30. Not elite like Wilson, but an elite cap deal. 
 

I don’t think recent data supports paying elite guys or above average QBs 15-20% of the cap equates conference title or SB appearances. Long term historical data doesn’t apply, due to the QB market place radically changing (Brady being the exception). 

Too be fair once Brady is out of league, EVERY franchise SB winning QB is going to be making 15-20% of the cap. The question is which teams manage the rest of the cap better by draft and when to let talent go.

[wit33]

 

 

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

As for Fitz, all I say is i've watched him a lot.  And if you don't think he can game manage at Nick Foles' level than we are on different planets on that one.   I think you might be pleasantly surprised.  But who knows.  Will see. 
 

 

 

Overall, I don’t subscribe to the idea only certain guys can win. Sure, are the odds in the elite QBs favor, no doubt (as we all know). 
 

I guess I’d agree Fitz could go on the run Foles did in their SB run. He’d have to protect the ball and produce like he’s never really done. He’s played better of late, but still throws interceptions. The Foles argument isn’t a strong one on my part. I think Fitzpatrick is much better, but Foles did manage to have an elite run. 

[wit33]

1 minute ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

Too be fair once Brady is out of league, EVERY franchise SB winning QB is going to be making 15-20% of the cap. The question is which teams manage the rest of the cap better by draft and when to let talent go.

For sure.
 

The point I’m failing to make well is that the QB now makes a larger percentage of the cap overall the last 5-8 years, especially QB 6-15 and has changed the market and formula to winning. 

 

QBs have always been paid the most, but used to work with their respective teams and seemed to be an unspoken code and togetherness for the team a QB to create a win/win deal. This is no longer and I’m curious what the data will show us in the coming years. Right now, Brady is applying the old school formula and continues benefit from it. 
 

Keep meaning to record the final 4 and SB winning QB cap percentages over the last 25 years. Is there a correlation with a lower QB cap percentage and winning? Maybe. I speculate yes. 
 

 

[FootballZombie]

14 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

 

Certainly another situation that you have to keep eyeballs on. Between Watson, Rodgers and Wilson the chance of landing an elite QB over the course of the next year is within a conceivable realm of possibility. Not very likely, but possible at least. 

 

Only 1/3 is an AFC QB tho, so that hurts

[Skinsinparadise]

30 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

I guess I’d agree Fitz could go on the run Foles did in their SB run. He’d have to protect the ball and produce like he’s never really done. He’s played better of late, but still throws interceptions. The Foles argument isn’t a strong one on my part. I think Fitzpatrick is much better, but Foles did manage to have an elite run. 

 

Fitz's issue isn't about struggiling to produce so no it won't be a challenge on that front to meet what Nick Foles did or Eli.   His issue is protecting the ball.  He has no issue moving the ball.  The last two seasons he's been decent at protecting the ball.   The last year he threw more picks than TDs was 2016.   He's not an interception machine of late.  He has talked about improving late in his career and being more cautious with the ball and stats back that up.

 

It's good to avoid picks but if you produce its not a death blow.  Eli who you lauded his game managent skills as something that Fitz would be unlikely be able to match -- threw plenty of picks including during his SB season.    Alex helped win games this year yet he had a bad season with picks.  

 

Fitz, Harvard grad, if I recall has the third highest Wonderlic score among the QBs ever, or close enough.  He's a smart cookie.   He's talked about some of his picks.  He said part of it is he doesn't give a rats behind about stats.  When he's behind, he will take every chance conceivable to come back even if it ruins his stats.

 

He also plays big in big moments.   He ranked 5th in the league last season in QBR with one of the worst O lines in the league and a crap supportinng cast. 

 

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/25-ryan-fitzpatrick-facts-to-make-you-rethink-your-life-fantasy-football/

Fitzpatrick is one of six QBs in NFL history with 34,000+ passing yards and 2,600+ rushing yards in their career. He joins a pretty boss list with John Elway, Aaron Rodgers,

 

At 9.6 yards per attempt in 2018, Fitzpatricks owns the 8th best season in that category in NFL history....he was especially lethal on 1st downs averaging 10.9 yards per attempt. Think about that next time you want to run up the gut for 2 yards on 1st down… He ended up tied with Peyton Manning and Dan Marino as the only QBs to throw for 400 passing yards four times in a season.

 

...Fitzpatrick’s teams have passed at a higher rate as he’s trailed on a ridiculous 59 percent of his pass attempts. To put that number in perspective, players like Russell Wilson (43%), Ben Roethlisberger (43%), and Philip Rivers (49%) are a far cry from Fitzpatrick.

Edited May 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[bakedtater1]

Soooooo ****ing excited for the season to start...it will be heine and Fitzpatrick battling it out with.fitz getting the nod cause of experience ..and the defense cant wait for training camp..pre season..to see how davis is fitting in

[wit33]

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Fitz's issue isn't about struggiling to produce so no it won't be a challenge on that front to meet what Nick Foles did or Eli.   His issue is protecting the ball.  He has no issue moving the ball.  The last two seasons he's been decent at protecting the ball.   The last year he threw more picks than TDs was 2016.   He's not an interception machine of late.  He has talked about improving late in his career and being more cautious with the ball and stats back that up.

 

It's good to avoid picks but if you produce its not a death blow.  Eli who you lauded his game managent skills as something that Fitz would be unlikely be able to match -- threw plenty of picks including during his SB season.    Alex helped win games this year yet he had a bad season with picks.  

 

Fitz, Harvard grad, if I recall has the third highest Wonderlic score among the QBs ever, or close enough.  He's a smart cookie.   He's talked about some of his picks.  He said part of it is he doesn't give a rats behind about stats.  When he's behind, he will take every chance conceivable to come back even if it ruins his stats.

 

He also plays big in big moments.   He ranked 5th in the league last season in QBR with one of the worst O lines in the league and a crap supportinng cast. 

 

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/25-ryan-fitzpatrick-facts-to-make-you-rethink-your-life-fantasy-football/

Fitzpatrick is one of six QBs in NFL history with 34,000+ passing yards and 2,600+ rushing yards in their career. He joins a pretty boss list with John Elway, Aaron Rodgers,

 

At 9.6 yards per attempt in 2018, Fitzpatricks owns the 8th best season in that category in NFL history. Despite the Buccaneers going 2-6 in his eight starts, he was especially lethal on 1st downs averaging 10.9 yards per attempt. Think about that next time you want to run up the gut for 2 yards on 1st down… He ended up tied with Peyton Manning and Dan Marino as the only QBs to throw for 400 passing yards four times in a season.

 

...Fitzpatrick’s teams have passed at a higher rate as he’s trailed on a ridiculous 59 percent of his pass attempts. To put that number in perspective, players like Russell Wilson (43%), Ben Roethlisberger (43%), and Philip Rivers (49%) are a far cry from Fitzpatrick.

Love these numbers.

 

We have an elite QB. #favorites

 

Seriously, I think 15-20 QBs can go on a run with a great team around them. Some more likely than others, but randomness has happened from time to time. I agree Fitz is trending in a positive direction, but he still throws interceptions at a high rate compared to his peers. It’s improved though. 

Edited May 5, 2021 by wit33