Will Cousins Play For The Skins In 2018

[sknz45]

19 minutes ago, carex said:

 

looking at the difference between talent from our 9-7 two years ago to our 7-9 or 8-8 this year I worry he's topped out and we'll be playing 35 million per year for years of just barely making or just barely missing the playoffs

I doubt anyone on here wants to pay him 35 mil per year, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets it for some team though.  Unfortunately the way the Skins have allowed this to play out we are stuck with overpaying or starting over at QB.  I believe Kirk is a very good QB, but he lacks the “wow” factor.   He far exceeds anything we have had in 20 years.  I hope we find a way to keep him that works for us and him.  Damned if you do, damned if you don’t….

[Taylor 36]

21 minutes ago, carex said:

 

looking at the difference between talent from our 9-7 two years ago to our 7-9 or 8-8 this year I worry he's topped out and we'll be playing 35 million per year for years of just barely making or just barely missing the playoffs

Oh, the "he's reached his ceiling" argument.  You guys are hilarious.  This argument has been dragged on for five years now, even before he was named the starter.  Yet, he has improved each and every season, including this one, but again, we hear the asinine argument that "he's topped out."   If you were truly looking at the difference between the talent of his three consecutive starting seasons, you would easily see that this year he has had absolute **** to play with.  It doesn't even come close as to how much the talent of his supporting cast on offense has dipped this year.  Still, he's playing at a high level, maybe even higher than his two previous years, and people want to question his ceiling?  I swear, if Cousins was walking around the neighborhood throwing out cash for everyone to grab, some of you folks would **** and complain about him and say he's just not good enough because he wasn't using the denomination of bills you prefer.  It is really, really sad.

[carex]

3 minutes ago, Taylor 36 said:

Oh, the "he's reached his ceiling" argument.  You guys are hilarious.  This argument has been dragged on for five years now, even before he was named the starter.  Yet, he has improved each and every season, including this one, but again, we hear the asinine argument that "he's topped out."   If you were truly looking at the difference between the talent of his three consecutive starting seasons, you would easily see that this year he has had absolute **** to play with.  It doesn't even come close as to how much the talent of his supporting cast on offense has dipped this year.  Still, he's playing at a high level, maybe even higher than his two previous years, and people want to question his ceiling?  I swear, if Cousins was walking around the neighborhood throwing out cash for everyone to grab, some of you folks would **** and complain about him and say he's just not good enough because he wasn't using the denomination of bills you prefer.  It is really, really sad.

 

we're arguing results.  Yeah, he has had **** to work with this year, and he had some borderline pro bowlers two years ago.  And the difference is one to two wins

[Skinsinparadise]

44 minutes ago, carex said:

 

looking at the difference between talent from our 9-7 two years ago to our 7-9 or 8-8 this year I worry he's topped out and we'll be playing 35 million per year for years of just barely making or just barely missing the playoffs

 

This point has been a running debate for months.  And I recall you being a part of Kirk debates as I have for a long time.   I just don't get the logic even a little of looking at the team as a one dimensional object versus a prism.  If we work with third grade math on this, it spells it out very clearly.

 

What your team gives up points wise is just as relevant as what you score.  The other team has the ball, too.  Kirk isn't on the field, then. This isn't soccer or basketball where players play both offense and defense. 

 

The operative points to this:

A. We have a bad defense that gives up lots and lots of points.

B. If you look at what would happen if we had just an average defense in points allowed -- and extend that to this season.  That is, 22 points per game.  They'd be 11-4.

C. If we had a top rated defense like the Vikings.  And extending that to the number of points they allow per game...they'd be 12-3.

 

Yeah I know its not perfectly linear this way.  Good defenses can have bad games, etc.  But it brings home the point in a loud way that even if this defense was average, this team would likely get to the playoffs.  That's not on Kirk.  It has ZERO to do with Kirk.  Kirk is doing his part and more.  If we do what the Saints did last off season and finish upgrading the defense and bring a running game -- this team I think is going far.  It's amazing what they've done considering the injuries, lack of weapons, strength of schedule, etc.    But even if you don't buy into that -- this team has put up plenty of points to be a winner if their defense was just OK and that's against a killer schedule.  I'd imagine and hope that the schedule ends up being much closer to normal next season.

[Taylor 36]

7 minutes ago, carex said:

 

we're arguing results.  Yeah, he has had **** to work with this year, and he had some borderline pro bowlers two years ago.  And the difference is one to two wins

As @Skinsinparadise stated above, you shouldn't be looking at results in a vacuum and realize that the wins/losses record doesn't have much to do with Kirk and his ceiling.  The last two years he had wretched defensive play to help him out.  The offense, led by Cousins, put up enough points to win most of their games, but the defense didn't come close to doing their part. The defense appeared improved at the beginning of this season, but injuries took their toll in a huge way.  The offense took a step backwards this year with the loss of our OC and our three greatest receiving threats, along with injuries like the defense.  Still Kirk has done enough even with this MASH unit to win most of our games.  The fact that we may finish a third year in a row without a losing record (something we haven't done since 1999 - 2001) is a major credit to Kirk and his growth.

[Dark Acre]

There are 3 kinds of QBs in the NFL:  1) those who win no matter what; 2) those who can win with the right team around them; and 3) losers, no matter what.  Kirk is a #2 guy. 

 

He'll be here if he cares about 1 thing primarily -- assuming he's confident Snyder/Allen can build the team around him -- and that's his place in history.  He will be the GRQOAT if he wins a Super Bowl, because he'll be the first (and perhaps) only QB of the reign of Snyder the Maddening to win the S.B.  He may never get to the HOF or whathaveyou, but he'll forever be able to say to Bubby Brister and all the other former NFL mediocrities, "I won the SB under Dan Snyder".  He will forever be worshipped, not just loved, worshipped in D.C., particularly since no one born after early February, 1992, has ever seen the Redskins win the SB, and at this point, that's about everyone age 25 and under.  Think about that.

 

He'll be here if they draft and handle free agency well.

[BurgundyBooger]

2 hours ago, carex said:

 

Elway has thrown money at Peyton Manning and drafted Osweiller, Paxton Lynch and Trevor Simian.  Tom Coughlin lucked into Eli Manning, and has a history of his teams collasping on him.  They're good, but they're not exactly geniuses

 

The degree of separation between genius and good is about the same as that between good and whatever we have.

[Berggy9598]

7 minutes ago, GothSkinsFan said:

There are 3 kinds of QBs in the NFL:  1) those who win no matter what; 2) those who can win with the right team around them; and 3) losers, no matter what.  Kirk is a #2 guy. 

 

He'll be here if he cares about 1 thing primarily -- assuming he's confident Snyder/Allen can build the team around him -- and that's his place in history.  He will be the GRQOAT if he wins a Super Bowl, because he'll be the first (and perhaps) only QB of the reign of Snyder the Maddening to win the S.B.  He may never get to the HOF or whathaveyou, but he'll forever be able to say to Bubby Brister and all the other former NFL mediocrities, "I won the SB under Dan Snyder".  He will forever be worshipped, not just loved, worshipped in D.C., particularly since no one born after early February, 1992, has ever seen the Redskins win the SB, and at this point, that's about everyone age 25 and under.  Think about that.

 

He'll be here if they draft and handle free agency well.

 

If you factor 64 QBs on game day rosters there are about 4 or 5 out 64 in the first tier and 7 or 8 in tier two, where Cousins is. That's whats so concerning about losing him IMO. If we've learned anything watching this team it's that the odds of finding even a QB in that second tier aren't very good. 

[JSSkinz]

There's this narrative that the Saints all the sudden drafted all these defensive studs and that's why they're good, yes they got a solid CB in Lattimore and a FS who is playing well but their run game with that two-headed monster is why they are back in the playoffs.  They possess the ball and keep Brees from having to throw 40+ times a game.

 

If you want to take something away from what the Saints did in the offseason, make sure you get a dynamic RB who can run and catch, that will move the needle more than anything with our team.

[Tsailand]

10 hours ago, mistertim said:

Maybe Denver can move the cap space around

 

Of course they can.  You push the cap hit into the future.

 

3 hours ago, markmills67 said:

P.S   If we re-sign Cousin's to a LTD, what the lowest cap figure we could get him to for 2018?.

 

2018 salary plus 1/5th of the signing bonus.

[mistertim]

4 hours ago, Burgold said:

To recap my positions:

I thought it was reasonable to put Cousins on a franchise tag after coming on strong at the end of his first year starting. We've seen too many QBs have a really great six game run that turned out to be fool's gold. However, if you are going to say to a player "prove it" and they do then you have to pay up.

 

I thought it was unreasonable to put Cousins on a franchise tag for a second year. It seemed pretty predetermined and neither side really wanted to dance. Cousins proved himself, he won the bet, and the Redskins needed to man up. They needed to court him and to a degree blow him away. I think the the Redskins offered a fair opening bid expecting the usual contract dance, but Cousins' side didn't want to play. You can blame both sides and I do, but the majority of the blame goes to the Redskins front office.

 

One thing I wonder is how much the final games of the 2016 season factored into their decisions regarding Kirk, whether to offer him a deal, and how much. We had 2 chances at the end of the season to get into the playoffs and in both of those (including vs a Giants team that was resting a bunch of their starters) Kirk came out and laid an egg. Those were both win and in games and he played like crap in both of them. Maybe they were already set on what they wanted to offer him but I wouldn't be incredibly surprised if that ending left a bad taste in their mouths. 

[NeverSurrender]

On 12/24/2017 at 9:33 AM, Thirtyfive2seven said:

I'm just wondering when someone is going to say, "we should sign RGIII". 

 

 

Excellent post - The redskins would be fools to part ways with Cousins so that's exactly what I expect will happen.

And use him as a receiver!

 

Great post!

[Veryoldschool]

1 hour ago, Taylor 36 said:

Oh, the "he's reached his ceiling" argument.  You guys are hilarious.  This argument has been dragged on for five years now, even before he was named the starter.  Yet, he has improved each and every season, including this one, but again, we hear the asinine argument that "he's topped out."   If you were truly looking at the difference between the talent of his three consecutive starting seasons, you would easily see that this year he has had absolute **** to play with.  It doesn't even come close as to how much the talent of his supporting cast on offense has dipped this year.  Still, he's playing at a high level, maybe even higher than his two previous years, and people want to question his ceiling?  I swear, if Cousins was walking around the neighborhood throwing out cash for everyone to grab, some of you folks would **** and complain about him and say he's just not good enough because he wasn't using the denomination of bills you prefer.  It is really, really sad.

 

Well said!  I remember the NeverKirkers saying he was nearly topped out in 2012 after his Browns and Raven performances.  Some said since Kirk had played in a pro-style offense in college he had already near his ceiling.  Kirk puts up top 5-10 numbers, 4,000+ yards and all the rest without the two 1,000 yard receivers that they said made him look good in 2015 & 2016.  Reed and Thompson have been out for much of the year and some weeks 4 of his starting OL are out.

 

Kirk is a top 5-10 QB now and he continues to improve.  I think some guys made up their minds Kirk wasn't the guy or not their guy in 2012-2014 and are utterly oblivious about Kirk.  

 

I think the guy from the Mile High Post said well, I am paraphrasing, that Kirk performed among the top 5 during 2015-2017 even though he didn't have anything like the quality supporting casts the other top 5 quarterbacks had during that period.

 

I think we are going lose him in 2018 or 2019 and Kirk is going to go to a good team where his typical Redskin year of 4,000+ yeard, 67% completion rate 28 TDs and 10 Ints will take his new team deep in the playoffs or win the whole thing be the Super Bowl MVP.  Then Redskins NeverKirkers will say "See!  Cousins needed a great supporting cast to carry him to success."  NeverKirkers will never see it no matter how many times it is exhibited, they have will it not so so it is not so.  

[skins island connection]

If they do end up signing Kirk, it better be a long term deal; no more of this tag **** fiasco. either negotiate a contract and get it signed or let him go. Tagging him is throwing money away when it could be used to bring in some much needed help, especially in the offensive dept.

 

But if they sign him and have no plans for upgrading the WR dept then there's no point in signing him. Doctson is borderline decent/bum, the other wannabe WR/QB experiment was a huge failure, so this team needs play making WRs. If they can't get anyone, just let Cousins go and start over from scratch. And by scratch, i'm talking the entire FO, scouts, coaches, the whole 9 yards. When was the last time this team had a good WR over 6'2?

 

 I'm just so damn frustrated with Bruce Allen, I really really wish his sorry ass would be fired, then eaten alive by rabid squirrels. 

[Tsailand]

3 hours ago, carex said:

we'll be playing 35 million per year

 

It's not going to be 35 million per year, OK. That's the exclusive franchise tag number, but his open market AAV is lower.

 

 

39 minutes ago, Veryoldschool said:

Some said since Kirk had played in a pro-style offense in college he had already near his ceiling. 

 

Any fan who gave that as an argument against Kirk is straight up moronic and deserves to watch college-style QBs for the rest of his life.

[carex]

4 minutes ago, Tsailand said:

 

It's not going to be 35 million per year, OK. That's the exclusive franchise tag number, but his open market AAV is lower.

 

 

 

 

I've seen nothing from Kirk's previous behavior that suggests he wouldn't consider that his starting poin at negotiations

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

One thing I wonder is how much the final games of the 2016 season factored into their decisions regarding Kirk, whether to offer him a deal, and how much. We had 2 chances at the end of the season to get into the playoffs and in both of those (including vs a Giants team that was resting a bunch of their starters) Kirk came out and laid an egg. Those were both win and in games and he played like crap in both of them. Maybe they were already set on what they wanted to offer him but I wouldn't be incredibly surprised if that ending left a bad taste in their mouths. 

I don't doubt for a second that's what led to them sitting on their hands.  That's the issue.  That's something fans do, get emotional and stuck on things like that.  The FO is supposed to be above that, only not in Washington.

[Paul Cumberland]

21 minutes ago, carex said:

I've seen nothing from Kirk's previous behavior that suggests he wouldn't consider that his starting poin at negotiations

 

He'll get way more than 35m in a LTD his 1st year.  It's called a signing bonus..

[justice98]

At this point, if other teams are salivating at the chance to sign him, why would he want to sign a LTD with a team that seems lukewarm about it?  I would not be surprised if as far as Kirk is concerned privately, tag, trade, or open market are the only 3 choices.

[Berggy9598]

1 hour ago, Veryoldschool said:

 

Well said!  I remember the NeverKirkers saying he was nearly topped out in 2012 after his Browns and Raven performances.  Some said since Kirk had played in a pro-style offense in college he had already near his ceiling.  Kirk puts up top 5-10 numbers, 4,000+ yards and all the rest without the two 1,000 yard receivers that they said made him look good in 2015 & 2016.  Reed and Thompson have been out for much of the year and some weeks 4 of his starting OL are out.

 

Kirk is a top 5-10 QB now and he continues to improve.  I think some guys made up their minds Kirk wasn't the guy or not their guy in 2012-2014 and are utterly oblivious about Kirk.  

 

I think the guy from the Mile High Post said well, I am paraphrasing, that Kirk performed among the top 5 during 2015-2017 even though he didn't have anything like the quality supporting casts the other top 5 quarterbacks had during that period.

 

I think we are going lose him in 2018 or 2019 and Kirk is going to go to a good team where his typical Redskin year of 4,000+ yeard, 67% completion rate 28 TDs and 10 Ints will take his new team deep in the playoffs or win the whole thing be the Super Bowl MVP.  Then Redskins NeverKirkers will say "See!  Cousins needed a great supporting cast to carry him to success."  NeverKirkers will never see it no matter how many times it is exhibited, they have will it not so so it is not so.  

 

What you should never stop stressing is how hard it is to put up those numbers with a running game that opposing defensive coordinators don't have to game plan against. The coverages he sees week in and week out are designed to stop the pass, and he still moves the offense up and down the field consistently. This is why most "football people", as opposed to "sports journalists" and fans, get how good he is. 

[Tsailand]

9 minutes ago, Paul Cumberland said:

He'll get way more than 35m in a LTD his 1st year.  It's called a signing bonus..

 

Sure, but the cap hit of the signing bonus gets spread out over the first five years of the contract.  His AAV is going to be more like 30M. 

 

 

38 minutes ago, carex said:

I've seen nothing from Kirk's previous behavior that suggests he wouldn't consider that his starting poin at negotiations

 

With us, maybe, if we tag him again and he doesn't want to be here.

 

With another team, no. Carr got 25, Stafford got 27.  Nobody is going to give Kirk 35/year on a LTD.

[Riggo-toni]

Our starting 2018 QB is currently on the Vikings roster, but I'm not sure if it's Bradford, Keenum, or maybe even Bridgewater.

[ThomasRoane]

4 hours ago, jujuskinsfan said:

I seriously cannot believe that spending money on Cousins is even a debate... at this point, we just need to pay him whatever he wants. He has proved he is just below elite (very good?) with potential to be elite for one or even several games in a row. What more do we want from him? I guarantee you that if we let him walk, this team will suck *** for the next 10 years and will not find a QB nearly as good as Kirk Cousins. Our team is far from perfect right now, but you have to look at the big picture (injuries, coaching, etc...) He is our best shot to being consistently competitive and winning a championship in the next 7 years or so and it's not even close. When you have a QB that plays as well and consistent as he does, you hold on to him. You simply can't win in this league with an average to below average QB. That's my opinion anyway...  

 

Not to mention that he keeps breaking all the glass ceilings everyone tried to put on him.  Can't come back after a mistake, can't bring his team down the field to score when it matters, can't make average players around him better (this year could our skills players be any more average?!), can't extend plays, etc. etc.  Every year we've seen Kirk make improvements on the previous year.  And every year critics throw out more "yeah...but's."  Truth is, we really don't know how good he could be.  He's never had a dependable running game or a solid defense/ST's. 

 

Above all, Kirk Cousins is a freakin Iron man!  Wentz went out in his second year.  Carr has had back to back years with injuries.  Will Luck every play again? 

 

The naysayers here are ignorant to the state of the quarterback in the NFL now.  They're very hard to take seriously.  Although, part of me wants me to see them get what they want with Kirk departing.  I will dedicate myself to mocking their pain every single day when they get what they deserve.

[Burgold]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

One thing I wonder is how much the final games of the 2016 season factored into their decisions regarding Kirk, whether to offer him a deal, and how much. We had 2 chances at the end of the season to get into the playoffs and in both of those (including vs a Giants team that was resting a bunch of their starters) Kirk came out and laid an egg. Those were both win and in games and he played like crap in both of them. Maybe they were already set on what they wanted to offer him but I wouldn't be incredibly surprised if that ending left a bad taste in their mouths. 

I think it would be both fair and unfair if they did. Fair in the sense that one knock on Kirk is that he is a bit too high strung and doesn't deal well with pressure. People have said when the going gets tough he cracks. Unfair in the sense that no one player wins or loses a season and there have been many times where Kirk led a game winning drive only to see a Barry or Haslett defense somehow surrender a losing touchdown with under a minute on the clock.

 

I think we have seen by now that Kirk can lead game winning drives and does so probably more than average, but we've also seen him have real ugly games at inopportune times. Still, it's hard to judge. Take the game against the Broncos. Kirk had a terrible first quarter (great rest of the game, but let's only look at the first quarter). Cousins sprayed the ball innaccurately several times and missed what should have been a beautiful touchdown/forty yard completion. At the same time, some of those "misses" were bad drops by Doctson who had a horrific game and were the right throw and were thrown well enough. So, was it the QB who had a bad quarter or the receiver? The reality is that it was a bit of everything. Non the less, the important bit in the Broncos game is that Kirk overcame his wretched start and wound up having a very good game overall.

 

That's the rub though. Do we grade our QB by how they play at their worst, their best, when the game or season is at its most critical juncture, or via averages? I think you have to look at all of it. You have to say where's the floor and when this guy has a stinker how bad will it be? You have to look at the ceiling and say when he's on fire how unstoppable is he? You need to look at the critical moments and see how well he leads you through them be they drives or games. You also need to look at the factors outside the QB that contribute to his play. If you do that you develop a picture of who that quarterback is.

 

Who is Kirk Cousins? His floor can be quite low (see the first Eagles' game) his ceiling can be very, very high. He is pretty good at shouldering that final drive and getting the team in position to get you points. He's quite uneven in rising up to the do or die game. He can sometimes overcome his own team's failures, but I don't think he falls apart when his team does. He is a fighter. I'm not sure if he's a leader, but I do think his team mates stand beside him. In academic terms, I think he's a B+... a 3.45 GPA. He's not a valedictorian, but he's comfortably on the honor roll.

[pcbothwel]

Exactly, just transition tag the guy and match. I just dont see the market for him for HUGE money. Denver, Jacksonville, and Arizona are all decent situations, but dont see the big money. Cleveland NYG and NYJ are possibilities, but I think the Browns go for Rosen and then whoever takes Allen/Mayfield/Jackson isnt signing Kirk either.

Again, I just dont see it.