visionary Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 P.S. for Fairfax at 5pm, turnout in 2013 was: Dunno what 2013 absentee was, I don't see anything on that. Total total, as mentioned, was 46.8%, so 10.6% between 5pm-7pm + absentee. As of 2pm FFX was running 2.6% ahead of 2013. 9 minutes ago, Hersh said: Does this mean it's considerably higher since it's only a fraction of precincts reporting? I think the way they do it is they call and ask precincts their turnout and just average them. So it's like an estimate based on whatever precincts call in. But not 100% sure on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said: You know I didn't expect this to work but sometimes Twitter is good for things other than helping Russians: #1, thank you and nice work. #2, so, if I am reading this right (questionable), voter turnout at similar times is up from 28% in 2013 to 30.6%. I guess that is good, but not as good as i'd hoped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Wait, jk, absentee in 2013 was about 4.4%. So hypothetically, things are good for Northam in FFX atm. Absentee 2.2% ahead of 13, and in person is 2.6% ahead. If that holds, hypothetically we could see 50% (or even 51 or 52%) turnout, which would be tremendous given that McAuliffe won the state with 46.8% from Fairfax. However, 5pm numbers will be crucial. If we're at 36% or better "in person," then it's likely that 2013 will be matched or exceeded. Below 36% and it'll be tight. Above 38%, and beating 2013 by several percent almost guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hersh Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 It's sad that we are talking about 50% being a good number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 >2% increase in turnout could very easily be all that's needed. In 2013 the election was decided by just over 2%, ~56k votes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2013#Results Looks like the NY Times has a pretty good page for monitoring this once returns start rolling in https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fresh8686 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just voted in Loudoun County and the people at the place said turnout was at 30% for their spot, which was higher then the general elections. This was my first time voting, I got the letter from the Governor that my rights were restored just in time to register to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted November 7, 2017 Author Share Posted November 7, 2017 Arlington has already surpassed its 2013 vote totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 P.S. Arlington turnout at 48% currently. Anecdotally, Arlington was 49% in 2013. Haven't confirmed numbers. But if they manage 53+% that would also be rather huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, No Excuses said: Arlington has already surpassed its 2013 vote totals. 5 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said: P.S. Arlington turnout at 48% currently. Anecdotally, Arlington was 49% in 2013. Haven't confirmed numbers. But if they manage 53+% that would also be rather huge. /Blood pressure receding slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: /Blood pressure receding slightly. I mean, it's gonna be close no matter what. I won't breathe any sighs of relief unless we have 4% more turnout across all of NoVa compared to 2013. I am somewhat doubtful of things going THAT smoothly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, DogofWar1 said: I mean, it's gonna be close no matter what. I won't breathe any sighs of relief unless we have 4% more turnout across all of NoVa compared to 2013. I am somewhat doubtful of things going THAT smoothly. Emphasis was on "slightly." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonniey Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 4 hours ago, Springfield said: Again, not feeling confident about Northam’s chances. I'm feeling pessimistic myself about his chances (ie I think he is going to win). 3 hours ago, StillUnknown said: don't leave out that Northam is apparently the pedophiles best friend And most of you want him to win. Ya'll a bunch of degenerates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spjunkies Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 I'm just happy that the creepy Gillespie ads can stop flooding YouTube. By this point I know that a MS-13 gang member is going to chop my head off geeeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulSkin Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Supposedly strong turnout in Richmond. I think that's a good sign. They're saying 24% by noon, which seems terrible, but what do I know? There's a decent video that pops up here, if you can make it through the Farmers Insurance commercial. Just a basic little break down from the Times Dispatch political editor and political columnist, on indicators to be looking for as the day goes on. The turnout in Henrico County also seems like a good sign too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 ^^For PWC. Could still surpass 13 but we'll see. My guess is around same %. PWC is a little more suburby than, say, Arlington tho, so might be uptick after 5pm as people get off work and then drive to polls (unlike in city where people could potentially walk). This was also an interesting graphic: Looks like just about everywhere except W&M and Norfolk State are set to surpass 2013 numbers. VCU is crazy high. Not sure how much of a connection to draw but it matches with reports of high Richmond turnout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted November 7, 2017 Author Share Posted November 7, 2017 Fairfax on pace to surpass 2013 turnout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LadySkinsFan Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 That right wing nut Corey Stewart was just interviewed on OAN, which skews right. He's all giddy at the thought that Democrats might lose, and that will be good for Virginians and the country. He's running for Senator next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/928012059001925632 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 News here in Norfolk just said they are almost ready to call it a win for Gillespie. Just kidding. I wanted to spool you guys up. I turned the news off. I will say, having only been here a week or so, the political commercials have been crazy. Now I never watched these commercials before, even during the POTUS election cycle. I don't need a 30 second bit to tell me who to vote for. But since I don't have DVR to fast forward with, I must watch them. I would describe the commercials from BOTH sides as horrible. Loose on facts, slinging mud, talking more about why the other side is bad than what they would actually do, etc. And this applies to all levels, from Governor to District X representative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted November 7, 2017 Author Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, LadySkinsFan said: That right wing nut Corey Stewart was just interviewed on OAN, which skews right. He's all giddy at the thought that Democrats might lose, and that will be good for Virginians and the country. He's running for Senator next year. He's the arse clown who showed that at least half the GOP base in VA is full of racist pro-confederate nutjobs. It's why Gillespie ran such a despicable race-baiting campaign. I have no doubt he will be the GOP challenger to Tim Kaine. If Ed Gillespie wins, Stewart etc will argue that it shows white nationalist politics resonate with voters in the state. If Ed Gillespie loses, Corey Stewart and his ilk can label him as an establishment pansy who didn't really believe in the cause. Its a win-win tonight for far right nutjobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 It should be illegal for a local government to tweet a turnout % or raw number without context as to previous election. Like okay, almost 50% is likely good, but good is dependent on 2013 numbers. So now we have to run off and try to find 2013 numbers. Takes forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 hour ago, nonniey said: I'm feeling pessimistic myself about his chances (ie I think he is going to win). If I was a normal, reasonable, traditional Republican, I would want him to win too. Problem is, the GOP needs to get utterly destroyed in every election for a while so that they will stop catering to the worst aspects of their base and return to their original principles. Gillespie isn't the worst guy in the world, but right now, for the sake of the country, the GOP has to take it in the teeth for a while at every possible level. Trump isn't the only problem. The Mitch McConnell-style "wink wink at the base and refuse to compromise" Fox News-beholden GOP establishment is just as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said: It should be illegal for a local government to tweet a turnout % or raw number without context as to previous election. Like okay, almost 50% is likely good, but good is dependent on 2013 numbers. So now we have to run off and try to find 2013 numbers. Takes forever. Are you saying it should be illegal to make internet message board warriors do their own research? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan T. Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 In Northern Virginia what's falling out of the sky is God's tears as he contemplates that Donald Trump is President of the United States. Spread the word. That'll get out the vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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