SoulSkin Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Good twitter list here. https://twitter.com/nickbaumann/lists/actually-knows-things Also looking at 538. http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2017-election-live-coverage-results/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Nyt forecast just went from 4% to 5.7% in favor of northam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Prince William and Chesterfield are two I'm watching closely. 2013: Chesterfield 100.0% Reporting K. Cuccinelli GOP 49.2% 51,073 T. McAuliffe Dem 41.2% 42,836 R. Sarvis Lib 9.6% 9,945 Prince William 100.0% Reporting T. McAuliffe Dem 52.0% 50,409 K. Cuccinelli GOP 43.8% 42,410 R. Sarvis Lib 4.2% 4,081 Currently in Chesterfield, 61K votes in, and Northam only 600 votes behind in margins. If the margin doesn't grow a ton, that's a huge blow to Gillespie. Could have gotten back 8k+ votes there if he followed 2013. Similarly, in PWC, McAuliffe was 8K ahead at the end. Northam 8K up at the moment with 36K in. Still about 66K to go in PWC, but if margin grows at same pace or even if he only grows it a bit, that would be very helpful to Northam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Quote DAVID WASSERMAN 7:27 PM It’s early, but I’d rather be Northam than Gillespie. He’s holding his own in rural precincts relative to our benchmarks, and he’s getting higher turnout and support in the few Democratic strongholds that have reported. For example, in Williamsburg’s Matoaka precinct, Northam beat Gillespie 1,769 to 633. Four years ago, McAuliffe beat Cuccinelli there 1,399 to 668 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 24% of the vote in and only 2% of Fairfax County reporting. Northam leading by +5%. Good sign for him, I think. 2% not 5%. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 PWC up to about 2/3rds of expected total with Northam up by 14K (compared with McAuliffe win by 8K). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Chesterfield slipping away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Third county to watch closely as well, Loudoun. 2013: Loudoun 100.0% Reporting T. McAuliffe Dem 49.7% 44,288 K. Cuccinelli GOP 45.3% 40,353 R. Sarvis Lib 5.0% 4,469 With 47K votes into Loudoun, Northam is winning 27K to 19K. Would be another huge blow to Gillespie. 4K in Loudoun towards Northam would wipe out several smaller counties down south, instead of doing the opposite that Gillespie needs, that is, eating into Fairfax and other Dem strongholds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Northam is 20% ahead in Loudoun with most votes counted. Turnout seems disappointing though at 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Quote DAVID WASSERMAN 7:43 PM Micah and Nate, I’m full-steam ahead. I think this is a call in Virginia. Stick a fork in this race, folks. I’m calling it for Ralph Northam 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said: Third county to watch closely as well, Loudoun. 2013: Loudoun 100.0% Reporting T. McAuliffe Dem 49.7% 44,288 K. Cuccinelli GOP 45.3% 40,353 R. Sarvis Lib 5.0% 4,469 With 47K votes into Loudoun, Northam is winning 27K to 19K. Would be another huge blow to Gillespie. 4K in Loudoun towards Northam would wipe out several smaller counties down south, instead of doing the opposite that Gillespie needs, that is, eating into Fairfax and other Dem strongholds. Northam's margin in Loudoun is almost 16k; 45k to 29.7k. Turnout is lower than I would have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulSkin Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Dog, here's a warm, dry blanket for ya from Silver on the 538 blog NATE SILVER 7:40 PM With a lot more results having come in from a lot more counties, I think there’s less need for caution then there was 10 or 15 minutes ago. This is looking pretty good for Northam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Did the Left finally realize that turnout was important? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Not sure if serious: DAVID WASSERMAN 7:43 PM Micah and Nate, I’m full-steam ahead. I think this is a call in Virginia. Stick a fork in this race, folks. I’m calling it for Ralph Northam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 According to the official .gov website, Chesterfield almost all in with about 90K votes. Northam only behind by about 1K there. Would be a major shift compared to 2013. 7,000 swing in Dem direction compared to 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 SETH MASKET 7:48 PM Looking at the 14 counties/cities in Virginia with at least 70 percent of the vote counted, Northam is running an average of 7.6 points ahead of where Clinton performed last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskins59 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Northam wins this, guranteed. if he doesn't, I'll eat my shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Dunzo, stick a fork in him. **** you Gillespie, **** you Trump, and **** you to all the 1m or so Virginians that voted for these clowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Corcaigh said: Northam's margin in Loudoun is almost 16k 9 minutes ago, Corcaigh said: Northam is 20% ahead in Loudoun with most votes counted. Turnout seems disappointing though at 40%. Yeah. .gov website showing only about 75,000 votes, well below 2013's 85,000. However, REALLLLLLLLY interesting number here is Gillespie votes. Assuming that website is accurate, R numbers down MASSIVELY. McAuliffe got 44K. Northam has 45K. Kuccinelli got 40K. Gillespie has 29K. That would be a HUGE drop off of Rs. Like 8.5 on the Richter scale seismic shift. Basically 100% of the turnout dropoff is among Republicans. WHICH IS CRAZY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StillUnknown Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 If the pundits are right and Virginia will guide the 2018 elections either pro-trump-campaign-style or anti-, then this is good. The bigger northam wins by the more likely 2018 will be better for the discourse. Yes it's important for those of us that live here but it has ramifications beyond our state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StillUnknown Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Just now, tshile said: If the pundits are right and Virginia will guide the 2018 elections either pro-trump-campaign-style or anti-, then this is good. The bigger northam wins by the more likely 2018 will be better for the discourse. Yes it's important for those of us that live here but it has ramifications beyond our state. i want as big a margin as possible. Don't want "conservatives" looking at a close race and saying Gillespie lost because he didn't go racist enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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