DogofWar1

I believe she is a disliked British monarch consort?

Huuuuge. Nevada's EC votes are small but mighty. Creates some extra paths esp if she can put somewhere like NC in play.

Tho I suppose when you're desperate to change the conversation from if you ever had sex with a couch and...\/\/\/ ...you'll take whatever press you can get, even if it means attacking everyone in America without kids.

This ****ing guy.

You forgot the best part of Tim Pool's little tantrum.

This is a neat site tracking ActBlue donations. This week is gonna be the biggest week they've tracked. Only like 1M to hit the record and Friday + Saturday to go. https://observablehq.com/@rdmurphy/actblue-ticker-tracker

There's also apparently a 25-to-1 Trump-to-Harris TV ad ratio that should rapidly be changed. The trendlines are generally all in Harris' direction but she's still got a ways to go. One good thing is that she seems to be polling inside MOE in enough states to win, and there's enough enthusiasm that her GOTV efforts should be robust.

It feels vaguely psychopathic. Like they can't feel empathy, they can't imagine empathy, everything is zero sum so you NEED a vengeful god aiming a metaphorical gun at you, or you NEED kids so that there's a reason to make your community better.

This whole "childless" line feels like another version of "how can people be moral without religion?" "How can people possibly care about their country if they don't have kids?" Like there is some weird mental block where unless there's an explicit benefit/threat to something, that people cannot do inherently good things.

https://www.quora.com/How-many-former-U-S-Presidents-had-no-children-while-serving-as-President What a ridiculous line of attack. Also very silly. Like it's such a niche position to take so as to be offputting to the average person. Also if you're trying to appeal to young people, telling Millenials, who are having fewer kids, and Gen Z, who are largely not old enough to have families yet, that they shouldn't be allowed to vote is just wild.

I'm warming to Beshear though Walz has appeared in my rankings like a dark horse. Shapiro is still up there but I see a lot of concerns that his stances on private schools and Israel/Gaza will dampen some of the grassroots support. Dunno how true that would be, and it's hard to measure the intangible of energy, but it is a concern. If polls go up in PA, and stay fine elsewhere, but 1000 less young people volunteer in, say, Michigan, how does that balance play out. Similarly, seeing some pushback on Kelly from Unions. Walz sounds super good on the news, has that conversational tone that doesn't sound super canned. If his polling across the rest of the rust belt is good he might be the guy to pick. Maybe there's some blind spot somewhere, I haven't seen anything explicit about his current stance on the Israel/Gaza conflict (google links seem mostly from around the time of the Oct 7 attack or earlier this year when pro-Palestinian protestors crashed an event of his).

If Elon legit isn't sending money that's a BIG loss for Trump. Depending on how you count months that's anywhere between 135 (Aug/Sept/Oct) and 225 (July/Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov) million. That's an insane amount of SuperPac money.

I wonder if Trump pulling out of a debate with Harris (which to be clear hasn't happened yet, tho he appears to be laying that groundwork) will have any impact on 3rd party/RFK Jr. #s. Normally as elections creep closer 3rd party support collapses. Gary Johnson only ended up with 3.2% in '16 and 3rd parties combined for about 5%. RFKJr. polling at 8% is high. However in most cycles we have debates between the top 2 and the exclusion of the 3rd parties probably has something of a chilling effect on support, since the point of "these 3rd party dudes have no chance" is driven home. I wonder if, if we have no further debates, people won't feel that same way and 3rd party candidates may get a little more.

The one with 3rd parties is interesting bc of the combined numbers equalling 46%. Obviously polls are not completely uniform but it looks like when undecideds are allowed to be undecided, Trump's ceiling is somewhere around 46%, give or take.