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Everything posted by DogofWar1

  1. Will Joe Biden say a swear!? LET JOEY B SWEAR! (he does not actually swear but stops himself)
  2. I don't think these protests will lead to spreading among one party more than another, as most of these protesters are sufficiently healthy to fight it off. They will, however, spread it to those around them. And that's another reason it will hit everyone. I remember a video showing where people from a Florida beach went afterwards; they spread across the whole country. These protests will be like that, but likely localized to a state, but all parts of a state. Now, the virus being much more deadly to elderly combined with elderly being more likely to be Republicans, now THAT might lead to a lopsided death total.
  3. If Joey B only serves 1 term (or loses), Andrew Cuomo is setting himself up nicely as someone who could run in 4 years.
  4. Here's the other crazy thing about the "sacrifice some lives for the economy." This isn't gonna be a Thanos-snap and 2.5% of the population just dissipates and we pick up the pieces. It's gonna be millions upon millions sick. Hospitals overrun. Basic services disrupted. For months, and months. 2.5% dying only after months and months of national hardship. With the speed the virus spreads, it's likely with ZERO containment that it would take about 3 months to hit most everyone who is gonna get it. Maybe (if it's seasonal or mutates even that won't work bc herd immunity won't develop). Then another month for people with it get better. And in that last month it will be tens of millions with it, largely incapacitated from the virus.
  5. I wanted to crunch some numbers re: Coronavirus and potential election impact but that seemed too electiony for the Coronavirus thread. But to drive home the point about how bad an idea it is for Trump to end social distancing early, I crunched some numbers for PA, MI, WIS, the 3 states where he won enough electoral votes to win overall, and did so by only 77K vote COMBINED. My numbers might be optimistic, but assuming 2.5% death rate (this is higher than at present but assumes some hospital overflow that gets people killed, and is below a lot of other countries' death rates, so if anything 2.5% is optimistic) and community spread reaching 40% of the population. Also assuming deaths are 2:1 65 and older, which I then assume hits Trump supporters at 2:1 rate, given they trend older too. 28.61M people in those 3 states 40% of that is 11.44M for infections. 2.5% death rate of that is 286,000. 66% of that is about 188K and 33% is about 97K That's 91K more likely Trump voter deaths than Biden voter deaths. Now, obviously, not everyone votes. So the voter loss won't be that bad. But it will, even with these likely conservative estimates, take away whatever advantage Trump had in these states. And older voters vote more often, so presumably among the voter pool, more elderly will be removed than younger people. Someone in the admin must see this, right? Like his actions, aside from horrifically sacrificing likely millions, is going to really hurt his election chances given the demographics of the electorate. And does he think the elderly will forget being hung out to dry? Sure, his base will stick with him, but what about independent elderly? It seems like a bad idea to basically say "hey, we're gonna let a virus ravage you guys, and even if you live you probably know lots of people who died as a direct result of my policies, but still vote for me anyway!" Even if you're just a craven electioneer for Trump, crunching numbers dispassionately, you have to realize this is a loser for Trump. I guess the logical conclusion from there is, if Trump loses either way (economy crashes while people live and he loses OR economy recovers but he loses voters he needs OR he loses both the economy and voters he need) the only move is not to play, which means postponing the election. And given how Trump act, it scares me that that's a legitimate possibility.
  6. Have you seen this administration in action? They absolutely are that delusional. And they think they CAN be that delusional because their base doesn't challenge the delusion, but embraces it. This is going to be a bloodbath. But some of the...more...head-on-shoulders people in the admin must see the futility of this, right? Like if the economy crashes, he's done. If he tries to push people back out and it spreads, untold #s will die. You'd think someone whose biggest group of support is older folks and who won a number of states by razor thin margins would recognize that allowing a disease to circulate that is probably going to kill 65+ people at about a 2:1 rate of people under 65, at probably no less than a 2% rate (possibly much worse if/when hospitals are overrun), is absolutely political suicide. Not to mention, Trump himself is in a high risk category. If he just ends social distancing given the sheer # of contacts he makes with people, he's bound to get it.
  7. Jail. Now. Dumping stock is bad. Buying stock you know will benefit from a pandemic is malicious. Jail. Also, made this:
  8. This illiterate moron damn near crashed the markets with a single word he inserted while reading from a teleprompter. Remember when Republicans would make fun of Obama for his minor teleprompter mess ups? Congrats, you can never cite that again because all Obama accomplished with his was getting the GOP riled up, while your dude managed to tank the entire economy.
  9. Yup, and all the way through the 20th. Escalated very quickly. It's the right thing to do but there's gonna be a lot of pissed off parents, and I hope no kids relied on the school for their meals.
  10. Holy cow, that "kill on demand" thing is terrifying.
  11. PS I love how transparent it is that Trump just wanted to **** the EU. Excludes UK for no real stated reason from ban, and says trade and cargo are to be stopped from the rest of Europe (they won't be).
  12. It probably won't get THAT bad, but 1,000 is very wishful thinking. So there are two things that make this thing deadly, it's R0 and it's mortality rate. R0 is a measure of how many people are infected per infected person, so for example, a disease with an R0 of 2 means each infected person will on average infect 2 other people. Average transmissability is important too, because there are things called "super spreaders" who infect a TON of people, while most cases are less or not infectious (SARS had this, some people were super infectious, others much less so, which helped limit spread because % of people spreading it was low). Seasonal flu has an R0 of around 1.3. Covid's is likely a bit north of 3. I saw 3.8, but estimates range from 1.8 to 4ish. But basically it's more transmisible than the flu. It's also unlikely to be spread via super spreaders just given how worldwide it is; too many people are infectious for it to only a be small % of infected spreading it. Then you have mortality rate. Mortality rate of seasonal flu is around 0.1%. So if a million people caught the flu, we'd expect about 1,000 deaths. Covid's was pegged at 3.4%. It might be lower, and probably is because cases inevitably slip through, but anything anywhere near 1% is scary. Basically, while containment procedures aren't in place, we would expect the number of Covid cases to triple week to week. That's what other countries have seen and we'll likely see it here too. So the US has roughly 1,000 cases now, right (probably a lot more due to our crappy testing)? If spread triples week to week, we'd have 3K next week, 9K in 2 weeks, 27K in 3 weeks, 81K in a month, 243K in 5 weeks, 729K in 6 weeks, and over 2.1M cases in 7 weeks. If that keeps going, in under 3 months every person who could get it in the US likely would. Mix that with even a 2% mortality rate, and you see why this is scary. If 10M get infected with 2% mortality, that 200,000 people dead. If 25M are infected, that's the population of Wyoming, dead. And it would take only about 9 and a half weeks to reach 25M infected from 1000 infected due to spread. Further, if the total population mortality rate is 2% or so, imagine how high it is among elderly. Would be like 7-10%. Imagine 10% of the elderly in the USA just dying off in the next 3 months. If we don't stop the spread, it's not impossible. Hence why everyone is taking this deathly seriously.
  13. Trump mentions trade and cargo being a part of the ban and look what happens. But sure, he's got this... We're all gonna die.
  14. Biden Campaign announces Public Health Panel to Advise on Coronavirus Lookit that guy, bein' all Presidential.
  15. See Also: Literally every issue of the past 12 years. Remember how deficits were bad once?
  16. True. I think Bernie believes he contrasts well against Biden, so a 1-on-1 debate is a must.
  17. I imagine Bernie will limp to the end. He *might* concede after Florida if it gets really bad but I don't think he wants to. If he gets out early he'll be pressed to make nice with Biden and I don't think he wants that.
  18. Meh, I don't know about that, in VA for example, the turnout was up MASSIVELY. Biden won by himself almost as many votes as were cast in 2016. Some states are up and some are down, but I don't think there's major cause for alarm about enthusiasm. Rather, what I think this shows is that despite Bernie trying to "expand" the electorate by bringing young voters in, he largely has been unable to. There is no sudden massive influx of young voters coming to push him over the line in the primary or the general. The usual thing about youth vote turnout still applies (sadly).