LadySkinsFan Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 53 minutes ago, Llevron said: When liberalism is almost synonymous to basic human decency, it’s entirely possible the majority of Americans are liberal, now. And you actual conservatives will have to deal with that until you can elect or at least nominate a serious candidate that can push your views without underlying racism/evil/whatever the hell is happening to your party now. And I don’t even mean Presidential. From the top down the Republican Party is full of horrible people and new voters recognize that. This is isn’t the liberal fault. In fact the biggest boon to the liberal party in my lifetime has been GOP control over the country. You have have the wrong bad guy, homie. If you really think liberal ideas are so terrible, you need to put forward a candidate that doesn’t make them look good in comparison. That makes sense doesn’t it? This overly liberal reaction is a direct result of what conservatives have done. The 2018 election demonstrated that the country is moving forward, not regressing. And the electorate wants forward progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Sinister Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 Just let it shortcircuit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 There is a reason the GOP strategy has become: find ways to allow less people to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said: Again tbf, the majority (2.9 million more voters) did prefer it in 2016 (despite what you describe as a historically bad candidate). It just didn't result in an electoral victory. ButBut the majority (which is even better than plurality) did prefer it. If you subtract the votes of liberals living on the east and west coast, Donald Trump won by like 60 million votes and would have had the biggest popular vote landslide win of all time. Checkmate libtard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Llevron Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 Just now, NoCalMike said: There is a reason the GOP strategy has become: find ways to allow less people to vote. Tell me. Cause to me if the majority of the country is Republican and against liberal policies.....how would have less people voting for them help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said: Again tbf, the majority (2.9 million more voters) did prefer it in 2016 (despite what you describe as a historically bad candidate). It just didn't result in an electoral victory. ButBut the majority (which is even better than plurality) did prefer it. edit...oops. I was wrong. Plurality preferred it. 48.2% chose HRC. I had forgotten that the Russian bot Jill Stein siphoned off 1% of the vote. And had totally forgotten Gary Johnson got 3%. 😬 I said vast majority for a reason. I’m thinking: majority strong enough it shows up in the electoral votes Because that means something more than your majority and actually matters im honestly not even trying to be cute about it. We’re talking about two different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan T. Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 Positive spin on Tom Steyer joining the race... I am sure he's a walking encyclopedia for all the stupid, immoral, inept, and criminal things Trump has done as a businessman, candidate, and President. It's so hard to keep track of all of it, but given that Steyer's biggest mission in life lately has been to bring Trump down, I'm sure he's got it all down pat. He could probably, impromptu, reel off 50 of Trump's biggest lies at the drop of a hat. So he can be the resident expert on all things anti-Trump, and keep reminding voters of all of it through the debates and however long he wants to hold on. That'll free up the other candidate to talk issues and rise above it all, while storing up all of Steyer's Greatest Hits of Trump Douchebaggery for the general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LadySkinsFan Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 So here we are, throw in the active voter suppression and foreign interference with actual elections. It's disgusting the way Republicans have acted to retard progress of humans in favor of corporations and the extremely wealthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozo the kKklown Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, tshile said: I’m thinking: majority strong enough it shows up in the electoral votes This literally doesn’t make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 23 minutes ago, Llevron said: Tell me. Cause to me if the majority of the country is Republican and against liberal policies.....how would have less people voting for them help? Because they can target which voters to disenfranchise. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/18pdf/18-422_9ol1.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momma There Goes That Man Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 28 minutes ago, NoCalMike said: What are the unpopular progressive policies? -Ensuring everyone has affordable quality healthcare -Creating an environment where people are not slaves to their job and big corporations, where people are paid what they are worth, a pay they can actually live off of and have options for social mobility -equality for all including voting access, equal pay, equal protections and benefits -literally, saving the earth from destruction You know, horrid, unpopular and unconscionable ideas like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozo the kKklown Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 These “scary left wing liberal” ideas sound like an evolution on FDR’s ideas (and I would go as far to say that these new ideas don’t go as far as FDR’s when taking account time and place). The right called FDR a socialist and a loony also. Please don’t bear those in dissent any real mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 That map gives a lot of the states that Trump won back to the Dems. I’d be happy, but I gotta figure that he keeps some of those states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, Springfield said: That map gives a lot of the states that Trump won back to the Dems. I’d be happy, but I gotta figure that he keeps some of those states. 538 had this theory in 2016 that certain states kind of vote like unified blocs: that is if Trump won in say PA, he would be favored to win all states like it (WI, MI, IA, OH) due to demographic similarities. Considering the margins were very similar in MI, WI and PA in 2016, I think the same will be true in 2020. If a Dem wins in say PA, they are probably winning in other rust belt states as well. This pattern tracked closely for the 2018 mid terms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 1 hour ago, NoCalMike said: There is a reason the GOP strategy has become: find ways to allow less people to vote. That and stacking the courts with right wing judges are their 2 go-to ways to get around the fact that their policies are extremely unpopular on a consistent basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 39 minutes ago, Springfield said: That map gives a lot of the states that Trump won back to the Dems. I’d be happy, but I gotta figure that he keeps some of those states. 18 minutes ago, No Excuses said: 538 had this theory in 2016 that certain states kind of vote like unified blocs: that is if Trump won in say PA, he would be favored to win all states like it (WI, MI, IA, OH) due to demographic similarities. Considering the margins were very similar in MI, WI and PA in 2016, I think the same will be true in 2020. If a Dem wins in say PA, they are probably winning in other rust belt states as well. This pattern tracked closely for the 2018 mid terms too. Trump won by razor thin margins in those states, when voters thought he'd "grow into" the job and also that Hillary was the only one under federal investigation. People have now seen Trump do the job for 2 1/2 years. Those states have all had intervening state-wide elections and they have all voted overwhelmingly Dem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 1 hour ago, No Excuses said: 538 had this theory in 2016 that certain states kind of vote like unified blocs: that is if Trump won in say PA, he would be favored to win all states like it (WI, MI, IA, OH) due to demographic similarities. That's not quite what 538 said. What 538 said is that you can't treat the error in different polls as independent things because if the poll is flawed other polls are also likely flawed for the same reason. If the poll in PA is flawed, it is likely that the polls in other (similar) states are also flawed. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/ It really is independent of Trump and unified voting blocks and is a technical issue of how you deal with the errors associated with state polls in predicting a national winner. The error in polling in PA is not independent of the error in polling in OH. The two are likely related. (That other forecasters and pollers did not realize this says something about that state of understanding of statistics in this country.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCSaints_fan Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 2 hours ago, BenningRoadSkin said: These “scary left wing liberal” ideas sound like an evolution on FDR’s ideas (and I would go as far to say that these new ideas don’t go as far as FDR’s when taking account time and place). The right called FDR a socialist and a loony also. Please don’t bear those in dissent any real mind. Only thing the Democrat nominee has to do is win all the states Clinton won in 2016, win back Michigan and Wisconsin, which hadn't voted R for President since Ronald Reagan prior to 2016 (and were only won by ~20k votes apiece, less than 0.5%), and were and win one of the tossup states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida or North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 1 hour ago, DCSaints_fan said: Only thing the Democrat nominee has to do is win all the states Clinton won in 2016, win back Michigan and Wisconsin, which hadn't voted R for President since Ronald Reagan prior to 2016 (and were only won by ~20k votes apiece, less than 0.5%), and were and win one of the tossup states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida or North Carolina. I don't think FL can be called a toss up state any more. It is now the sort of state that if you lose as a Republican, you've lost the election, and I'd be shocked if OH flips. Winning AZ might be more reasonable, but doesn't help as much. But if you can flip AZ and PA and hold the Clinton states, you don't even need to get back MI or WI. Unless some bad news comes out of somewhere, I'm still doubtful of a Trump loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCSaints_fan Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, PeterMP said: I don't think FL can be called a toss up state any more. It is now the sort of state that if you lose as a Republican, you've lost the election, and I'd be shocked if OH flips. Winning AZ might be more reasonable, but doesn't help as much. But if you can flip AZ, you can afford to lose PA and even WI and win. Unless some bad news comes out of somewhere, I'd dubious of a Trump loss. Its a tossup in the sense that you don't know who's going to win. I agree that its been a "must win" for recent Republican presidential candidates. Recent meaning since 1992. GHWB could have lost in '88 and he still would have crushed Dukakis. Obama won Florida in '08 and '12, Bush won in '04 and we all know what happened in '00, Clinton won in '96 but not in '92. So in terms of presidential candidates, its oscillated between Rs and Ds over the last 30 years, and I'm pretty sure the margin its always been within a percentage point or two (would have to check on that) The link is also calling it a tossup state. As for Ohio, won by Obama in '08 and '12, and Clinton in '92 and '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 If I were a Democrat running for President, I'm not sure I'd put much effort into flipping MI and WI back. You need to flip PA back and gain AZ and NC. That would give you the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 Just go to all the states loud and proud and don’t pull a ****ing Clinton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Springfield said: Just go to all the states loud and proud and don’t pull a ****ing Clinton. A little bit of “blue collar swagger” definitely wouldn’t hurt. Can any of these candidates play saxophone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hersh Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 1 hour ago, PeterMP said: If I were a Democrat running for President, I'm not sure I'd put much effort into flipping MI and WI back. You need to flip PA back and gain AZ and NC. That would give you the win. Bless your heart. Thank God you aren’t a Democrat running cause this is the dumbest strategy I’ve seen. Don’t waste time in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killerbee99 Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 Michigan, wisconsin, pa are key... NC is difficult now..... I pray to God everyday that the orange man gets elected out of office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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