Election 2022 (Dems in charge of Senate. Reps take the House. Herschel Walker headed back home to ignore his children )

[Spaceman Spiff]

I don’t know about you guys but I looooooove toying with the people that send texts “Can we count on your vote?”

 

”You could have until you just texted. Now I’m not so sure anymore.”

[The Evil Genius]

2 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

I don’t know about you guys but I looooooove toying with the people that send texts “Can we count on your vote?”

 

”You could have until you just texted. Now I’m not so sure anymore.”

 

Mine would have been no, but you can count on the other 100 ballots I filled out for my block.

[skinsmarydu]

My phone has been literally blowing the **** up.  It's really crazy here.

[Renegade7]

I want to change my number now, I've never gotten them is many text messages and video ads sent me via sms before...but they'll find my new one any way jus like my house phone...

 

Anyway, this is cool...

 

 

[88Comrade2000]

I think the midterm will go as midterms usually go; against the incumbent party in power. 

 

Gop wins the U.S. House with at least 25-35 seats. Gop wins back the US Senate 51-49 by picking up Nevada.  We get Senator Vance and Oz.  It wouldn’t be surprising if the GOP picks up another senate seat. Either brain dead Walker wins in Georgia or AZ governor candidate Kari Lake has coattails and pulls Blake Masters to a win in Arizona.

 

The Dems have no shot in the House and if they keep the Senate; it’s likely a 50-50 tie again.  They will lose Nevada but could balance that out by having Fetterman beating Oz in PA.

 

I think incumbents/incumbent party  mostly does well governor races though a couple of seats could flip to the gop.

 

A lot of those Maga idiots will win.

 

I do predict their will be either Election Day violence or post Election Day violence. It wouldn’t shock me if there’s a shooting at a polling station.

 

Since many of the maga will refuse to concede; the lawyers will be out in force trying to throw out votes.

 

We probably won’t know the control of the Senate for a week.
 

On to Campaign 2024.

[China]

Be patient: This election is probably going to go on a while

 

Election Day is Tuesday, but with early voting, the more accepted use of mail voting and the prospect of razor-thin races, it's really Election Season.

 

And Tuesday only marks the beginning of the next phase in that season.

 

Gird for many of these elections to go on for days, if not weeks. This is all perfectly normal when there are close elections. It doesn't mean that there is fraud — despite the lies about his 2020 loss that former President Donald Trump has pushed and so many candidates he's backed have promulgated.

 

Republicans need a net gain of just five seats to take back the House. They're in the driver's seat and widely expected to reach that and then some. But the full extent of a GOP wave, if there is one, or whether Democrats pull off the surprise and hold the House, won't be known for a while.

 

Many of these races are expected to be close and will take a while to count all the vote. There are lots of competitive seats in California, for example. California polls don't close until 11 p.m. ET, so don't expect many of those to be known on election night. In past years, that's been the case, and it's taken a long time to know results — days and weeks.

 

For the Senate, all eyes are going to be on four states — Pennsylvania and Georgia in the East and Arizona and Nevada in the West. In Georgia, there's a libertarian on the ballot, who very likely will serve as a place for protest vote — meaning neither the Democrat nor Republican in the race might surpass the 50% threshold required to win the election outright.

 

If that happens, the election would go to a Dec. 6 runoff, which means control of the Senate quite possibly won't be known for a month after Election Day.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Pollsters Have ‘No F*cking Idea What’s Going to Happen’ This Election

 

If the pollsters and handicappers end up being spectacularly wrong on Election Night, there’s one group that won’t be too surprised: the pollsters and handicappers themselves.

 

The 2022 midterms could go exactly as modeled—a 20-some-odd-seat pickup for Republicans in the House and maybe a 51-49 GOP Senate—but the people who watch these races the closest are also warning they might be wrong in decisive ways. In either direction.

 

No one really knows because, like every election, pollsters are extrapolating their best guess based on a set of assumptions. But unlike previous elections, the assumptions are getting bigger.

 

According to Dave Wasserman, the U.S. House editor at the Cook Political Report, the big problem is that “response rates suck.”

 

“We’re down to 1 percent of people on a good day who are willing to talk to a pollster for free,” he told The Daily Beast.

 

Wasserman, perhaps the top handicapper of U.S. House races, said everyone was trying different ways to solve for “partisan non-response bias”—essentially a measure of how a poll isn’t representative of the actual population—but that means every pollster was making “a different assumption about who’s going to show up on Nov. 8 that may or may not be accurate.”

 

Part of the issue is that Republicans seem less and less inclined to answer poll questions. And another part is that pollsters are being less transparent about their methodologies to correct for those types of difficulties.

 

“We are, in many respects, stumbling through the dark with headlamps and flashlights,” Wasserman said. “And we have a vague understanding of where these races stand, but there are bound to be surprises.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

Rather than poll watching, it might make more sense to look at the Vegas odds, to see where people are willing to put their money on the outcome:

 

Midterm Election Odds Update

[88Comrade2000]

Happy Election Day 

 

If you haven’t voted, vote.

 

 

[ixcuincle]

 

[Renegade7]

 

 

Kinda sad only one thing to vote for considering how important this election is, be like that sometimes, got my sticker anyway.

 

Interesting is there's a polling station literally across the street from my house, but mine is a good mile or two away 😒

 

Anyway, my actual polling station one group was handing out a democratic ballot whole another was handing out just a regular sample ballot.  To me, thats sign GOP has conceded my polling station going in and only having someone extra to show up and check how many eligible voters left for that station as the polls get ready to close. 

 

Also, one of them friendly election officials watching people put their ballot in the counter box made a comment about "never to be seen again", like trying to be reassuring.  Red flag, so called him on it when it was jus him and I, not really, as I figured as a former election official once night is over all the physicals will be sent to one place with electronic print out to be manually compared before final count for that box is communicated up to be combined into larger counts.

 

Folks need to be careful what they say.

Edited November 8, 2022 by Renegade7

[Simmsy]

Didn't vote early this year (moved to Culpeper county, early voting is in Culpeper...I try to stay out of Culpeper.) So I did it the old fashioned way, but it it gave me a chance to scope out the new polling place. A lot of maga looking folks, of course. I live out in the middle of nowhere, so there weren't a lot of people there (only had to wait 30 seconds while the moron in front of me tried to get an extra sticker), but there was a steady, little trickle.

 

However, I will say that I think polling as we know it is all but useless now.

[Ball Security]

34 minutes ago, Simmsy said:

Didn't vote early this year (moved to Culpeper county, early voting is in Culpeper...I try to stay out of Culpeper.) So I did it the old fashioned way, but it it gave me a chance to scope out the new polling place. A lot of maga looking folks, of course. I live out in the middle of nowhere, so there weren't a lot of people there (only had to wait 30 seconds while the moron in front of me tried to get an extra sticker), but there was a steady, little trickle.

 

However, I will say that I think polling as we know it is all but useless now.

You should head down to Knakal’s and reward yourself with a donut.

[Simmsy]

15 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

You should head down to Knakal’s and reward yourself with a donut.

 

Got my reward a bong hit in my bathroom.

 

They're talking about my race on the national news, pretty cool. They're once again saying Virginia is a bell whether and a state to watch.

[Ball Security]

Just now, Simmsy said:

 

Got my reward a bong hit in my bathroom.

 

They're talking about my race on the national news, pretty cool. They're once again saying Virginia is a bell whether and a state to watch.

Are you guys the Spanberger one?  I’ve read that that one and the Luria one in VA Beach are ones to look at.

[Simmsy]

8 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Are you guys the Spanberger one?  I’ve read that that one and the Luria one in VA Beach are ones to look at.

 

Yep, apparently they changed the district and it completely screws over Spanberger. It was the only thing on our ballet (thought there would be a Culpeper county council vote, but I guess that was just for the city of Culpeper), but we've been bombarded with non stop adds around here. I wanted to ask about it in the gameday thread, but you know the rules. I can't count how many times I would see a Vega add and then a Spanberger add on immediately after...on nationally televised games.

[Forehead]

14 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

I don’t know about you guys but I looooooove toying with the people that send texts “Can we count on your vote?”

 

”You could have until you just texted. Now I’m not so sure anymore.”

 

I do that and got a response once.  I had said something like "I was going to vote for your person but you annoyed me so now I'm voting for the other one."  I had actual names in the text but it has been years and I don't remember which race it was.  Anyway, a few minutes later, I got an actual reply of "....please don't do that" complete with the leading dots.  It was hilarious.

 

Also, I'm proud to say there was no violence or voter intimidation in the means streets of McLean VA this morning.  Of course, our race is Don Beyer vs. whichever sacrificial lamb the GOP decides to put against him, but I still voted.

[Momma There Goes That Man]

(Ssssssssss) ‘_’ anyone wanna hit this with me?

 

[Fergasun]

Dropped off ballot last night.  No on all CA Propositions, except the one making it a State Constitutional right and also I think I  voted to ban flavored nicotine.  

 

Pretty much straight Dem, but not enthusiastic about much.  Wife and I filled out our ballots together and I think she stopped at Attorney General.  We had 15 judges and it was like "Should Judge Judy keep serving..." and I didn't vote in those.  Not even sure why we were voting on them.  

 

All these boomers screwing us over by voting GOP.... by that I mean not punishing them for being a truthless, factless, valueless party is depressing. 

 

[Larry]

I voted to retain every judge on the ballot. (FL). 
 

Don't know crap about any of them. But I'll take "unknown incumbent " over "whoever DeSantis would appoint tomorrow" every single time. 

[TheGreatBuzz]

Maryland ballot was long AF.

[LadySkinsFan]

Our school districts don't identify candidates by party so I was glad that my local Democrat party sent out a list of the ones to vote for. My House Rep (R) ran unopposed so I left him blank. He's a big blank and already violated his oath of office when he voted to oppose certified Electors. I have no respect for him as I've written to his website numerous times.

 

Good wishes to all voters today. May your lines be short and without election disrupters.

 

 

Edited November 8, 2022 by LadySkinsFan

[jwpanic]

Just cast my ballot in Colorado. Legal shrooms here we come!

[TheDoyler23]

Voting was pretty quick for me this morning, about 30 minutes after the polls opened.

 

Looking forward to more diversity at the top here in Maryland! 

[tshile]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/348082/
 

more evidence abortion doesn’t matter as a political issue for elections. 

[Bang]

I voted last week. I had never early voted before. I filled out the card with a pen, old fashioned way.. when i took it to the counting machine, I swung the ballot cards  sort of in the direction of the poll worker that was showing me how to do use the machine.
His hands shot up like I tried to give him a bomb.

 

I always appreciate the polls,, people are nice, generally in good spirits. 

~Bang

Edited November 8, 2022 by Bang