Election 2022 (Dems in charge of Senate. Reps take the House. Herschel Walker headed back home to ignore his children )

[Califan007 The Constipated]

14 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said:

Men's anatomy are complex too! Someone needs to ask ladies if a man can sit on his balls.

 

 

I will say the average tampon question was something I didn't know. Never had a reason to count.

 

 

When women have a significant say-so over what men can and cannot do legally with their anatomy, I'll start to care how much they actually know about sitting on balls lol...

 

And I knew (or more accurately, guesstimated) the number of tampons question based on buying them for my ex-wife numerous times 😂

[Momma There Goes That Man]

 

[88Comrade2000]

Interesting  comment on CNN about abortion.  They said abortion is motivating voters in red states where it is illegal or limited but not really motivating in blue states where  it's legal and available.  

CNN also said inflation/ crime  was motivating those voters moire in blue states.

They also said Trump may announce his 24 bid tonight at his rally.

Edited November 7, 2022 by 88Comrade2000

[The Evil Genius]

Lol crime. The GOP supports domestic terrorism but sure..let's talk about crime (which unironically is more of a problem statistically in red states). 

[Captain Wiggles]

🤔

 

[tshile]

Well you’re seeing effective campaign/messaging from republicans, combined with people just not being happy over the last few years. And when people aren’t happy they blame the government - specifically the party in power. 
 

the republicans were seemingly effective in making the midterms about inflation and crime. 
 

I personally don’t recall what strategy they championed, only that they said it was a problem and generic platitudes about the issues. 
 

Sinema and Manchin holding Biden a agenda hostage didn’t help either. 
 

arguing the details doesn’t matter. Perception and how people feel about things drives votes. 

[tshile]

 

as I said from the start of the abortion stuff - it’s not a big needle mover despite what some would prefer you to believe. 19% at the peak of the SCOTUS stuff, down to 11% now.  

[PleaseBlitz]

Yea, I thought it was just me who hasn't understood the Republican talking point that crime is out of control.  I've not seen anything like that and there has been no observable increase in crime where I live and work, much less it being all-caps OUT OF CONTROL. 

[tshile]

I mean crime has gotten out of control where I live, but I’ve written that off as the growing pains of going from a small town to a big town. 
 

we’re also exclusively run by republicans 

 

although the increase in crime is coming from the demos republicans tend to call democrats (minorities/poor people) so that’s how that talking point becomes effective 

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

It doesn’t matter what their taking points are, they can just make up whatever they want. 
 

I hope @Momma There Goes That Manabove posts are correct. I voted last week and saw a lot of young Dems out. 
 

I don’t see anyway we win the house again in my lifetime. It sucks we weren’t able to do more these past two years. 
 

Maybe we keep the senate. Lord help us all.

[PleaseBlitz]

 

[tshile]

9 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

 

It doesn’t matter what their taking points are, they can just make up whatever they want. 

 

Yup. Perception matters more than reality. 
 

and another thing people seem to forget (at least as far as I can tell) is it doesn’t really matter what the polling says. Especially the further away from the election you are. 
 

people have short memories, but also polling gives the person the luxury of not actually making the decision. They may decide something’s more important than it actually is to them, or that they feel a way they don’t actually feel. When they’re filling out the ballot - that’s when it all matters. You no longer have the luxury of just winging it for whatever reason - there is now an actual consequence for your decision. 
 

it’s the same as people having an opinion on something - and then when all the sudden it directly involves them their opinion magically changes. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

35 minutes ago, tshile said:

 

as I said from the start of the abortion stuff - it’s not a big needle mover despite what some would prefer you to believe. 19% at the peak of the SCOTUS stuff, down to 11% now.  

 

 

It seemed to have quite an effect on voter turnout in Kansas, when people were able to directly vote on it:

 

Voter turnout in Johnson County was over 53% as Kansans reject abortion amendment

 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/election/article263946446.html

 

Kansas’ primary election saw monumental turnout in Johnson and Wyandotte counties as voters flocked to the polls to choose nominees for the November general election and to overwhelmingly reject the amendment on the ballot, preserving Kansans’ right to abortion in the state constitution.

 

Statewide, turnout was around 47%. A total of 908,745 people voted on the abortion amendment, out of 1,950,971 registered Kansas voters. As many as 18.6% of these voters may have been unaffiliated with either major political party. Turnout was especially impressive in Johnson County at 53.7%: a tally nearly unheard of in a primary election. Nearly a quarter of a million votes were cast—244,818 to be precise. Around half of these votes were cast in person on Election Day, while nearly 100,000 were cast early in person. The rest were absentee ballots, some of which will continue to arrive at the election office in the coming days.

 

The number of votes cast in Johnson County this election was more than double those cast in the 2018 primary, about 100,000 more than for the 2020 presidential primary election and about 90,000 votes shy of the county’s total votes in the 2020 general election, when turnout was 74%.

 

 

[tshile]

12 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

It seemed to have quite an effect on voter turnout in Kansas, when people were able to directly vote on it:

 

Voter turnout in Johnson County was over 53% as Kansans reject abortion amendment

Ah. Yes. Very familiar with this one since it happened. 
 

And here’s the thing - they rejected the amendment while supporting the people that were responsible for wanting it. 
 

as I said then - I’d be weary or drawing too much from that. They had the luxury of rejecting a specific idea but still supporting the people pushing it.  And that’s what they seem to be choosing to do. 
 

Make that an issue, and those people still win, and are pushing the idea. I think it’s reasonable to think that one vote may not mean what many pro choice people have tried to make it mean. 

Ps - npr politics podcast interviewed people about it and if I recall the results were conservatives saying they didn’t want that, but no it wasn’t changing their vote on the candidates. 

Edited November 7, 2022 by tshile

[Califan007 The Constipated]

1 minute ago, tshile said:

Ah. Yes. Very familiar with this one since it happened. 
 

And here’s the thing - they rejected the amendment while voting for the people that were responsible for wanting it. 
 

 

That might be because Kansas voters had the power to prevent those who they voted for from instituting restrictions on abortion.

 

The main thing, though, is that abortion is a motivating factor for Dem voters to make sure they vote, even if it's not their top concern.

[China]

3 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Thank you for the injection of optimism @Momma There Goes That Man.  I'm feeling pretty pessimistic, I still think Dems lose the House (thus subjecting everyone to 2 years of soft boiled impeachment proceedings, among other theater) and I think the Senate could go either way (Ralston predicting a D win is good news, but he also said he wouldn't be surprised if it went the other way).  In any event, nothing will get done with Biden in the WH, so it will really just be status quo for 2 years while the 2024 election starts immediately and goes on forever. 

 

Exactly how I feel.  Dreading having to sit through 2 years of a Trump campaign.  My only hope is that the DOJ will eventually indict Trump, as will Georgia.  And if we're lucky NY will cripple his business to boot.

[tshile]

7 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

That might be because Kansas voters had the power to prevent those who they voted for from instituting restrictions on abortion.

 

The main thing, though, is that abortion is a motivating factor for Dem voters to make sure they vote, even if it's not their top concern.

it could be. The stuff I’m seeing says it isn’t. 
 

but historic turnout of the youth vote would probably screw up all those models anyways. You’re talking a well-below 50% turnout group. I would have to think models account for that and be thrown off if they show up > 50%. 
 

but unless that happens, the graphic from 538 shows for 89% of the country it isn’t on their list of “important issues”

 

and some % of the country single issue votes on it, so some of that 11% are people that vote ever election and their vote is never up for grabs. 

Edited November 7, 2022 by tshile

[PleaseBlitz]

I think the abortion stuff is a needle move in terms of turning out the base, which can be really helpful during a mid-term, but I think very few people base who they are going to vote for on it.  Dems could have done a better job making it a salient issue for more people.  Instead of asking only whether women should have the right to an abortion, they should ask that and do people want the GOP (including the current SCOTUS) imposing their specific religious beliefs on everyone.  

 

[tshile]

1 minute ago, PleaseBlitz said:

I think the abortion stuff is a needle move in terms of turning out the base, which can be really helpful during a mid-term, but I think very few people base who they are going to vote for on it.  Dems could have done a better job making it a salient issue for more people.  Instead of asking only whether women should have the right to an abortion, they should ask that and do people want the GOP (including the current SCOTUS) imposing their specific religious beliefs on everyone.  

 

well and I’m someone who believes the scotus leak was likely from republicans. 
 

let the outrage burn in may. Come November the whole topic is backburnered and doesn’t matter nearly as much. 
 

and I think the strategy worked - or I should say, is working according to what we’re seeing. We won’t really know until we see the election results and turnout numbers. 

[PleaseBlitz]

16 minutes ago, tshile said:

well and I’m someone who believes the scotus leak was likely from republicans. 
 

let the outrage burn in may. Come November the whole topic is backburnered and doesn’t matter nearly as much. 
 

and I think the strategy worked - or I should say, is working according to what we’re seeing. We won’t really know until we see the election results and turnout numbers. 

 

Yes, woman are definitely not known for their ability to hold onto a grudge for any significant period of time, they've probably forgotten all about it.

 

 

******

 

 

 

 

Just jokes.

[Momma There Goes That Man]

47 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Yes, woman are definitely not known for their ability to hold onto a grudge for any significant period of time, they've probably forgotten all about it.

 

 

******

 

 

 

 

Just jokes.

my wife doesn’t hold grudges and she’s never going to forget you said that 

[TheDoyler23]

3 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Yea, I thought it was just me who hasn't understood the Republican talking point that crime is out of control.  I've not seen anything like that and there has been no observable increase in crime where I live and work, much less it being all-caps OUT OF CONTROL. 

 

They also don't understand the concept of "per capita" when it comes to violent crime and just want to talk about people pooping on the streets in San Francisco. It's wild. 

[China]

Herschel Walker's stance on aliens and immigration:

 

 

[Fan since a Fetus]

[Califan007 The Constipated]

3 hours ago, tshile said:

but unless that happens, the graphic from 538 shows for 89% of the country it isn’t on their list of “important issues”

 

and some % of the country single issue votes on it, so some of that 11% are people that vote ever election and their vote is never up for grabs. 

 

 

This must vary greatly from one poll to the next lol...I'm not looking at the nation as a whole, though, just independent states. But look:

 

"Fifty-three percent of likely Iowa voters rank abortion and health care as critical issues, followed closely by crime (52%). 

 

For each of the six issues listed, respondents could choose whether the issue is “critical,” “important but not critical,” or “not that important.” Respondents could designate as many issues as critical as they wished.

 

...among Democrats, only 36% rate inflation as a critical issue. The only issue Democrats rate less frequently as critical is crime (31%). 

 

After party control of Congress, Democrats most frequently choose abortion and health care as critical issues, at 72% and 70% respectively.

 

Following inflation and party control, Republicans most often choose crime as a critical issue (71%). Republicans least often rank as critical health care (43%) and abortion (42%).

 

Among independent voters, 50% view health care as a critical issue. That’s followed closely by abortion (49%) and crime (48%)."

 

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/11/07/iowa-poll-how-do-voters-view-inflation-abortion-in-this-election/69606673007/

 

 

Again, I've only looked at individual states, but I would think that for abortion to only be at 11% nationally it would mean there are numerous states in which 0% felt it was an "important issue".