Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[mistertim]

24 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

 

I disagree with the assessment. It's not all doom and gloom for a FA WR until we get a QB. I agree it's not ideal but there are more reasons to come to a football than demanding they have a HOF QB. And again we do not know what their plan is. Doesn't mean there is not one and that a top WR would not look at it and being enthusiastic. And let's not forget, in the end money is what really talks. 

 

So best to agree to disagree. I am not changing my mind and it's clear you are not and that's OK. 

 

If I'm a hot FA WR and a team with a poor QB situation wanted me to come and said they "have a plan" at QB I'd say that I want to know exactly what the plan is, otherwise forget it. And nobody said it has to be a HOF QB. But there's a difference between a team that at least has a stable QB situation with a guy who's at least decent, and a team that has nothing but 3 UDFAs (1 injured, 1 who's played 5 quarters, and one who can't even crack the 2nd string spot) and a gimpy Alex Smith who's likely to not be here. 

 

And yes in the end the money talks. But I also am not generally interested in a guy who's only coming for a big ass payday. And if he's a big time FA WR he's going to have other offers. And if those other offers are comparable money-wise he's probably going to head towards one of the offers where he knows the QB situation.

Edited February 23, 2021 by mistertim

[Die Hard]

It’s not just about money or the QB situation. It’s also about the fit (how he’s going to be used in the offence, the opportunities - targets, etc.)

 

Ok, so WFT lacks an attractive QB situation. However, how about having Terry McLaurin on the other side. Yes, it could take away opportunities... but it may also provide them too.

 

 

[mistertim]

15 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

It’s not just about money or the QB situation. It’s also about the fit (how he’s going to be used in the offence, the opportunities - targets, etc.)

 

Ok, so WFT lacks an attractive QB situation. However, how about having Terry McLaurin on the other side. Yes, it could take away opportunities... but it may also provide them too.

 

 

 

Fair point, but so much of the rest of that still depends heavily on the QB situation. Telling a guy he's going to be super involved in the game plans and that there's another guy opposite him who can potentially help him get more 1 on 1 matchups doesn't mean much if he doesn't have confidence that there's a QB who will be able to take advantage of those things consistently and get the ball to him.

 

I'm not saying there's zero chance we can lure a decent FA WR in here. I just think it's an uphill climb if he's a really good one and he has multiple teams vying for his talent who actually do know what they're doing at QB.

Edited February 23, 2021 by mistertim

[tmandoug1]

16 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Fair point, but so much of the rest of that still depends heavily on the QB situation. Telling a guy he's going to be super involved in the game plans and that there's another guy opposite him who can potentially help him get more 1 on 1 matchups doesn't mean much if he doesn't have confidence that there's a QB who will be able to take advantage of those things consistently and get the ball to him.

 

I'm not saying there's zero chance we can lure a decent FA WR in here. I just think it's an uphill climb if he's a really good one and he has multiple teams vying for his talent who actually do know what they're doing at QB.

Agreed, like having to choose between Alabama or Delaware State as a recruit.

[skinny21]

15 minutes ago, mistertim said:

I'm not saying there's zero chance we can lure a decent FA WR in here. I just think it's an uphill climb if he's a really good one and he has multiple teams vying for his talent who actually do know what they're doing at QB.

This is an interesting angle IMO, the cross-section of teams that have a solid (or better) qb, ample cap space, systems and personnel that work for a receiver (odd way to phrase it, I know), good coaching/FO situations, look like potential contenders, and most importantly, that have the desire to add a high end receiver.  We’re screwed (ATM) in terms of qb, but I wonder where the rest of those points land us...

 

If the WFT FO is gung-ho on adding a top receiver, I have to think Fitzpatrick (and Winston, but I think he’ll be tough to pry from NO) is the most sensible target?  Assuming we don’t/can’t trade for a top qb prior to the start of FA, of course.

[Malapropismic Depository]

9 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I’m not too up to date on anything Tua but if the Dolphins would give up on him after only a season, that’s a huge red flag.

 

 

Is it a red flag ?

Or is just indicative of a franchise, that like Washington, hasn't won anything in decades ?

Maybe Miami wouldn't know a good QB if they saw one.

I don't think Miami ever recovered from that John Riggins 42 yard scamper for a winning TD

Edited February 23, 2021 by Malapropismic Depository

[wit33]

Well, Allen Robinson left Jags to Bears, a “bad” QB situation. Maybe he likes bad QB situations lol

 

Exploring the last few years of free agent Wrs I do t see much correlation with signing to a good QB situation. 
 

I say it goes money and offensive scheme/plans to feature player on top then everything else. Situationally, location can play a role as well. 

 

Edited February 23, 2021 by wit33

[JamesMadisonSkins]

21 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

If the WFT FO is gung-ho on adding a top receiver, I have to think Fitzpatrick (and Winston, but I think he’ll be tough to pry from NO) is the most sensible target?  Assuming we don’t/can’t trade for a top qb prior to the start of FA, of course.

 

Here's a table I created with all of the teams with currently positive cap numbers. Obviously you can probably write-off some of the ones closer to 0 since teams have varying needs and players actually on their roster. WFT $38m is really nice looking when you compare how many players they have under contract and what sort of re-signings they have. But, you get the gist. Our biggest threats are probably the Jaguars, Colts, Patriots, Jets and Dolphins. Sure the Chargers could go WR, but they may choose to build young talent around Herbert. Bengals could draft Chase at #5, but they don't NEED a WR (Higgins, Boyd are real solid). I could see them going the draft route v. the veteran route there. So of those teams, The Colts, Jags, Jets and Dolphins are probably our biggest threats who have QBs or at least the potential upside of a QB.

 

Team	Cap	WR Need?	QB?
Jaguars	77	Yes	Yes
Jets	68	Yes	Yes
Patriots	62	Yes	No
Colts	44	Maybe	Yes
Football Team	38	Yes	No
Bengals	38	Maybe	Yes
Broncos	31	No	No
Panthers	31	No	No
Chargers	24	Maybe	Yes
Dolphins	23	Yes	Yes
Browns	20	No	Yes
Cowboys	19	No	Yes
Ravens	18	Yes	Yes
Bucs	13	No	Yes
49ers	13	Yes	Yes
Cardinals	12	No	Yes
Texans	5	Yes	TBD
Seahawks	4	No	Yes
Giants	1	Yes	Yes

I think you have to "follow the trend" ... and the trend so far has been Rivera bringing in people he's familiar with from Carolina.

 

I have to think our first two signings are going to be Curtis Samuel and Tre Boston. I just think there are too many arrows pointing in that direction. I think Samuel would probably be the smartest addition, because he won't break the bank and he won't prevent you from extending McLaurin. He also probably has his best years ahead of him.

[Warhead36]

Players sign where the money is. Maybe a select few are picky but for most guys, they get that one shot at a big contract and will go where they can maximize their earnings.

 

I mean the Giants and Dolphins both signed some pretty expensive FAs last year and neither had a QB worth a crap at the time(and you could argue still don't).

[Darth Tater]

1 hour ago, Die Hard said:

It’s not just about money or the QB situation. It’s also about the fit (how he’s going to be used in the offence, the opportunities - targets, etc.)

 

Ok, so WFT lacks an attractive QB situation. However, how about having Terry McLaurin on the other side. Yes, it could take away opportunities... but it may also provide them too.

 

 

Isn't it weird that our real problem at WR is at #2 and slot? For years, we really didn't have a number 1 of Terry's caliber but often had a guys that probably would have made good number 2 or a slot.

[Darth Tater]

29 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

 

Is it a red flag ?

Or is just indicative of a franchise, that like Washington, hasn't won anything in decades ?

Maybe Miami wouldn't know a good QB if they saw one.

I don't think Miami ever recovered from that John Riggins 42 yard scamper for a winning TDfp

It is a red flag if they are in fact ready to move on. Now, fans are one thing but the guys he deals with on a professional basis?  I mean, WFT kept hope in Haskins after a terrible rookie year. From a technical standpoint, Tua did not have a terrible season for a rookie. If the coaching staff is actually ready to move on, either they think he cannot physically improve or he has an attitude/emotional issue.

[FootballZombie]

19 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Exploring the last few years of free agent Wrs I do t see much correlation with signing to a good QN situation. 

 

There is nothing but correlation. Top FA WRs and stable QB situation go hand and hand.

What big fish WR (the WR who signed the biggest contract in the FA period) went to a team without a settled QB in the last several years?

 

2020

Randall Cobb had the biggest contract last year, and he went to Hou (Watson)

Emmanuel Sanders got the biggest AAV and he went to NO (Brees)

 

2019

Tyrell Williams got the most money and AAV to go to OAK (Carr)

Antonio Brown got the 2nd most AAV to go to OAK as well.

 

2018

Sammy Watkins went to KC for the most Money and AAV to a team that was clearly committed to Mahomie, after shipping out Alex before FA

A Rob went to CHI for the second most AAV to a team that was committed to Trubisky

P Richardson got the third most money, but that was with the promise of playing with Alex Smith, who was acquired well before FA

 

 

The common thread here is that almost every FA big fish goes to a situation that at least has an established, committed to QB. Big fish FA WR will not willing walk into a QB camp battle, as their output is so directly tied to the QB.

 

You cant expect to land a big fish WR on FA when you cant offer a commitment to a QB. No WR wants to come to a team where you cant even tell them who they are catching balls from. While the idea that you have to have an elite QB is false, you do need a clear QB1 to be in the game

 

 

[Malapropismic Depository]

If Tua is truly a bust, it's just another good reason not to tank.

 

And if Tua is truly a bust, and all the experts were so terribly wrong in their assessment of a guy who was supposed to be better than Aaron Rodgers and Dan Marino, it makes me more confident that they were simply wrong about Heinicke as well.
If they can over-estimate players so badly, and repeatedly, then surely they can miss out on, and underestimate players as well.

Scouts and draft experts are so far from perfect, yet they are treated like they are.

Edited February 23, 2021 by Malapropismic Depository

[Number 44]

5 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

There is nothing but correlation. Top FA WRs and stable QB situation go hand and hand.

What big fish WR (the WR who signed the biggest contract in the FA period) went to a team without a settled QB in the last several years?

 

2020

Randall Cobb had the biggest contract last year, and he went to Hou (Watson)

Emmanuel Sanders got the biggest AAV and he went to NO (Brees)

 

2019

Tyrell Williams got the most money and AAV to go to OAK (Carr)

Antonio Brown got the 2nd most AAV to go to OAK as well.

 

2018

Sammy Watkins went to KC for the most Money and AAV to a team that was clearly committed to Mahomie, after shipping out Alex before FA

A Rob went to CHI for the second most AAV to a team that was committed to Trubisky

P Richardson got the third most money, but that was with the promise of playing with Alex Smith, who was acquired well before FA

 

 

The common thread here is that almost every FA big fish goes to a situation that at least has an established, committed to QB. Big fish FA WR will not willing walk into a QB camp battle, as their output is so directly tied to the QB.

 

You cant expect to land a big fish WR on FA when you cant offer a commitment to a QB. No WR wants to come to a team where you cant even tell them who they are catching balls from. While the idea that you have to have an elite QB is false, you do need a clear QB1 to be in the game

 

 

Thank you for your work on this.  It seems to me, though, that we would need to know if any of these guys turned down offers of more money to opt to sign with these teams.   If they did, it would help prove your point, if they didn't, well, the indication to me would be that they simply chose the best offers, financially. 

[Skinsinparadise]

This part of Alex's interview is getting some play right now on social media

 

https://www.gq.com/story/alex-smith-nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year

 

I assume you were talking to the Washington Football Team throughout that process? Were they surprised to hear that you were ready to go?

They were. They never thought I was coming back. No one there. I did all my rehab outside of the building. They do ACLs and stuff like that. But walking in with what I had, it's like you got three eyes.

 

So what was their response?

So there was a very small group of people that actually thought that I could do this. I think the rest of the world either doubted me, or they patronized me. "Yeah, that's really nice that you're trying." When I decided to come back, I definitely threw a wrench in the team's plan. They didn't see it, didn't want me there, didn't want me to be a part of it, didn't want me to be on the team, the roster, didn't want to give me a chance. Mind you, it was a whole new regime, they came in, I'm like the leftovers and I'm hurt and I'm this liability. Heck no, they didn't want me there. At that point, as you can imagine, everything I'd been through, I couldn't have cared less about all that. [laughs] Whether you like it or not, I'm giving this a go at this point.

 

And so you convinced them.

Well yeah. I mean, they tried to put me on PUP [Physically Unable to Perform] for two weeks, then they tried to high-arm me. I felt like I still hadn't had my fair shake at that point. I wanted to see if I could play quarterback and play football, and I feel like I hadn't been given that opportunity yet to find that out. It’s like getting this close to the end line of a marathon and they're telling you that you can't finish the race. It’s like, **** that. I'm finishing this thing. At least I'm going to see if I can. So, I’m thankful we worked through all that stuff but no, it wasn't like open arms coming back after two years. Like I said, new coaches, new faces, and I think I definitely surprised a lot of people that never thought I would even be trying it.

[ODU AGGIE]

I also appreciate and thank FZ for his work. Here's what it says to me. Don't try to go for a big time FA WR. Use the draft to fill needs, including WRs. Don't try to draft a QB. If the powers that be think Smith has another year left him, then let Smith, TH and Allen duke it out in training camp. If not, then let him go and grab Mariota with as low as possible a 2021 or 2022 draft pick. I say Mariota because I think his skill set and the skill sets of TH and Allen are similar enough that Turner can sub when necessary without having to modify the game plan, whoever the starter is. Then let Mariota, TH and Allen duke it out. Use the draft to fill other needs so as to improve what was already a pretty strong roster in support of whoever the starter is  . Here is one way to do that. 

• Round 1 - Pick 19 - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida (or best available WR) -- clearly a top five WR and likely to be available
• Round 2 - Pick 51 - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State (or best available LB) -- may not be available but is my first choice
• Round 3 - Pick 74 - D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, W. Michigan (or best available WR) -- this kid will be a great slot receiver and return specialist
• Round 3 - Pick 82 – Jaylen Mayfield, OT, Michigan (or best available OT) -- had a great game against Chase Young in 2019
• Round 4 - Pick 114 – Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina (or best available RB) -- solid in the passing game and a good, tough runner
• Round 5 - Pick 146 - highest rated and available player or trade for Mariota
• Round 7 - Pick 209 - highest rated and available player or trade for Mariota
• Round 7 - Pick 211 - highest rated and available player or trade for Mariota

If a round 5 pick will not get Mariota, use a 2022 round 4 pick -- just get him as cheaply as possible.

I believe that QB play will be good enough to make the playoffs and likely win the division, and my guess is it will be TH with Mariota as a fully capable backup. If that does not happen to work out, fix it next year.

Final thoughts: Darnold -- NO; Newton -- NO; OldmanFitz; NO

[sjinhan]

7 minutes ago, ODU AGGIE said:

I also appreciate and thank FZ for his work. Here's what it says to me. Don't try to go for a big time FA WR. Use the draft to fill needs, including WRs. Don't try to draft a QB. If the powers that be think Smith has another year left him, then let Smith, TH and Allen duke it out in training camp. If not, then let him go and grab Mariota with as low as possible a 2021 or 2022 draft pick. I say Mariota because I think his skill set and the skill sets of TH and Allen are similar enough that Turner can sub when necessary without having to modify the game plan, whoever the starter is. Then let Mariota, TH and Allen duke it out. Use the draft to fill other needs so as to improve what was already a pretty strong roster in support of whoever the starter is  . Here is one way to do that. 

• Round 1 - Pick 19 - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida (or best available WR) -- clearly a top five WR and likely to be available
• Round 2 - Pick 51 - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State (or best available LB) -- may not be available but is my first choice
• Round 3 - Pick 74 - D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, W. Michigan (or best available WR) -- this kid will be a great slot receiver and return specialist
• Round 3 - Pick 82 – Jaylen Mayfield, OT, Michigan (or best available OT) -- had a great game against Chase Young in 2019
• Round 4 - Pick 114 – Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina (or best available RB) -- solid in the passing game and a good, tough runner
• Round 5 - Pick 146 - highest rated and available player or trade for Mariota
• Round 7 - Pick 209 - highest rated and available player or trade for Mariota
• Round 7 - Pick 211 - highest rated and available player or trade for Mariota

If a round 5 pick will not get Mariota, use a 2022 round 4 pick -- just get him as cheaply as possible.

I believe that QB play will be good enough to make the playoffs and likely win the division, and my guess is it will be TH with Mariota as a fully capable backup. If that does not happen to work out, fix it next year.

Final thoughts: Darnold -- NO; Newton -- NO; OldmanFitz; NO

 

Dude we will be lucky to get Micah Parson with our first round pick.  I think if Parson is available then he is THE pick for WFT.

[Malapropismic Depository]

Here's another illustration and fun factoid, to show just how much of a crapshoot, the NFL draft is.

And it's not a rare exception. This is actually quite common.

And just a hypothetical illustration, that's all.

 

But in 2019, as crazy as this sounds, if we would have drafted Jimmy Moreland in the 1st Round, instead of Haskins, we actually would have been no worse off.

In fact, we probably would have been better off, if we picked that 7th Rounder in the 1st. Because then we'd then have an additional 7th Round pick, which we seem to do well with.

It's such a crapshoot, you could almost do well by flipping a coin.

But even though we would have been either better off, or no worse, at the time surely the whole entire world would have called us Nutso, and laughed if we picked Moreland in the 1st instead of Haskins.

Even North Korea's Kim Jong would have laughed.

 

 

Edited February 23, 2021 by Malapropismic Depository

[skinzplay]

Those Alex Smith quotes............the media doing what the media does. It's NOT everything he said. He loves this coaching staff and the encouragement he got from those guys. They gave Haskins a chance but always hoped that Smith could show something to rise to the occasion. Had he not suffered that bone bruise, dude would've been rollin' into the playoffs for us. I still like Heinicke, but I have 734% strong respect for Smith. Dude is a baller who fought through impossibility to continue playing. Most dudes aren't fighting through that. Please, let's drop the selective edits of media reports and move on to the rest of the discussion about this QB theme. 

[Skinsinparadise]

23 minutes ago, skinzplay said:

Those Alex Smith quotes............the media doing what the media does. It's NOT everything he said. He loves this coaching staff and the encouragement he got from those guys. They gave Haskins a chance but always hoped that Smith could show something to rise to the occasion. Had he not suffered that bone bruise, dude would've been rollin' into the playoffs for us. I still like Heinicke, but I have 734% strong respect for Smith. Dude is a baller who fought through impossibility to continue playing. Most dudes aren't fighting through that. Please, let's drop the selective edits of media reports and move on to the rest of the discussion about this QB theme. 

 

I read the whole interview.  I don't find the quotes that the media is harping on that selective.  It's not about condemning anyone whether its Alex or Ron or whomever.  It just gives the vibe that Alex might not be coming back.  If you disagree or think that point is irrelevant, its cool.  But I found it relevant enough to post and like anything people can read it or ignore.

[wit33]

2 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

There is nothing but correlation. Top FA WRs and stable QB situation go hand and hand.

What big fish WR (the WR who signed the biggest contract in the FA period) went to a team without a settled QB in the last several years?

 

2020

Randall Cobb had the biggest contract last year, and he went to Hou (Watson)

Emmanuel Sanders got the biggest AAV and he went to NO (Brees)

 

2019

Tyrell Williams got the most money and AAV to go to OAK (Carr)

Antonio Brown got the 2nd most AAV to go to OAK as well.

 

2018

Sammy Watkins went to KC for the most Money and AAV to a team that was clearly committed to Mahomie, after shipping out Alex before FA

A Rob went to CHI for the second most AAV to a team that was committed to Trubisky

P Richardson got the third most money, but that was with the promise of playing with Alex Smith, who was acquired well before FA

 

 

The common thread here is that almost every FA big fish goes to a situation that at least has an established, committed to QB. Big fish FA WR will not willing walk into a QB camp battle, as their output is so directly tied to the QB.

 

You cant expect to land a big fish WR on FA when you cant offer a commitment to a QB. No WR wants to come to a team where you cant even tell them who they are catching balls from. While the idea that you have to have an elite QB is false, you do need a clear QB1 to be in the game

 

 

Oh ya, I’m with you that having an anointed starter is helpful, I was more referring to the idea the QB situation needs to be good. Washington is in a unique situation, so I’m not sure historically how similar situations have impacted a team in signing Wrs. But in my mind an Allen Robinson didn’t care about Trubisky being the starter and it was more about the Bears willing to pay him the most, especially coming off an ACL tear. 
 

To add, I also think the “second deal” for players is the maximize money contract and after that legacy plays more of a role, which increases the value for the player to find a good situation 

Edited February 23, 2021 by wit33

[Burgundy Yoda]

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I read the whole interview.  I don't find the quotes that the media is harping on that selective.  It's not about condemning anyone whether its Alex or Ron or whomever.  It just gives the vibe that Alex might not be coming back.  If you disagree or think that point is irrelevant, its cool.  But I found it relevant enough to post and like anything people can read it or ignore.

I think he definitely seems a bit harsh on the staff in that quote. How many other teams would have given him the opportunity? Its almost as if he said that like he has nothing to lose so it's fair to assume he's likely gone. 

[skinzplay]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I read the whole interview.  I don't find the quotes that the media is harping on that selective.  It's not about condemning anyone whether its Alex or Ron or whomever.  It just gives the vibe that Alex might not be coming back.  If you disagree or think that point is irrelevant, its cool.  But I found it relevant enough to post and like anything people can read it or ignore.

 

Your word is bond, hoss. Always. But they didn't include everything that Smith said in that interview. Some who were present will send a little clarification on that soon (hopefully). It's silly season. The 24-hour news cycle has gotta fill the void with something. Even when comments aren't sensational, making them seem sensational generates clicks and site visits, which generates revenue. This is killing real journalism and I hate it.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, skinzplay said:

 

Your word is bond, hoss. Always. But they didn't include everything that Smith said in that interview. Some who were present will send a little clarification on that soon (hopefully). It's silly season. The 24-hour news cycle has gotta fill the void with something. Even when comments aren't sensational, making them seem sensational generates clicks and site visits, which generates revenue. This is killing real journalism and I hate it.

 

Thanks.  I hear you as for the media running with nuggets out of context and yeah it happens a lot.  Like many here, I've read and watched many Alex interviews, he's a super nice guy and super politically correct and careful as for what he says.  It's not that i thought Alex came off salty as some in the media contend but he also seemed unusually unguarded as for his comments. So to me it comes like he knows he's not coming back. 

 

I don't know if Grant's sources are right below.  But I would hazard a guess based on those comments that Alex would know he's not coming back because otherwise I'd think he'd be more guarded in what he says because he typically is somewhat guarded.  To me the relevance to this thread is I am doubting Alex is a fallback at the QB spot.  I suspected he wasn't but that interview borderline cements it for me. 

 

 

 

Edited February 23, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Burgold]

Thinking a little more about Wentz... not so much that the Eagles only got a third and a 2022 second for him, but the fact that the Eagles traded nearly as much for Wentz as we did for RGIII. Both situations turned out badly. Maybe there's a moral about the value of trading up for a franchise QBs in those two stories. Probably not, but it is definitely a cautionary tale. One that the team should think about very carefully before trading the house for Watson or for moving up in the draft to get Lance, Mac Jones, or Fields.