Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Skinsinparadise]

Keim's new podcast.

 

Said people he's spoken to on Darnold around the league, some have faith he can turn it around, some don't.  He referenced on the podcast a source who was negative.  He said he doesn't think he processes the field fast enough and doesn't see him having a Tannehill style turnaround.  Then he went on to talk about both Darnold and Mariota, he talked to someone about them, was told by that person that they both struggle with game situational awareness but they have some intrigue about Mariota's speed. 

 

 

 

 

[wit33]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

game situational awareness

This right here I believe gets waaaaay undervalued by fans and media. It’s kind of thing when the QB on your team has it, you take it for granted, then when the QB doesn’t have it you’re pulling your hair out as a fan. 
 

Can’t wait for this algorithm to present itself some day. Only stat fans and media rely on seems to be 4th quarter comebacks. As we know nuance discussion in a 3,4, or 5 minute tv segment doesn’t quite work. 

[Skinsinparadise]

14 minutes ago, wit33 said:

This right here I believe gets waaaaay undervalued by fans and media. It’s kind of thing when the QB on your team has it, you take it for granted, then when the QB doesn’t have it you’re pulling your hair out as a fan. 
 

Can’t wait for this algorithm to present itself some day. Only stat fans and media rely on seems to be 4th quarter comebacks. As we know nuance discussion in a 3,4, or 5 minute tv segment doesn’t quite work. 

 

I can't think of an algorithm because game situation awareness involves digesting the context of the game in real time.  I can't think of a way to quantify that but who knows.

 

The quick game processing point that an NFL personnel guy questioned about Darnold via Keim's mention, that point specifically is a big emphasis in Arians' book about QBs.  Arians said almost every QB could process the field, dissect a defense, etc if you give them time.  But in the NFL you don't have a long time to process what's going on -- among other things the great QBs see the field fast and processes things fast.

 

My amateur take of Darnold now having rewatched 2 NFL games and 3 college games in the last two weekends combined is his main issue is his seeing the field/vision.    You can see he's talented.  He's a big dude and can make some real beauty throws from time to time (similar in that way to Haskins) that make you think imagine if you can get those throws more consistenty.  And while he isn't fast at all, he has some serious elusiveness in the pocket and can throw on the move.   

 

But for me, its just too many boneheaded decisions in games including college.  And those throws come off not like the dude is just giving his guys a chance -- they come off more like he didn't see this or that defender.  And then when you add to the pile that he IMO is not a Burrow type of QB where he has pinpoint accuracy -- the combination of the two things IMO make his game unravel.   Like Haskins, he strikes me of a dude who can have a hot game or two because sometimes consistency clicks in temporarily for inconsistent players.  Inconsistency is rarely just a perfect wave of consistent inconsisteny.  The pattern can break with ups and downs.  

 

 

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

The Athletic's Jeff Howe said the Patriots "have had conversations regarding every potential [quarterback] trade target in the league."

Howe reports that head coach Bill Belichick and the New England organization are keen on upgrading at the QB position but "have so far been thwarted by inflated prices in an offseason that is currently siding with the sellers." The Patriots spoke to the Lions about acquiring Matthew Stafford and to the Eagles about trading for Carson Wentz, though the team was never considered a serious contender to land either quarterback. Howe mentioned Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota, and Jimmy Garoppolo as signal callers who could be pursued by Belichick in the coming weeks. The team is a decidedly unfavorable landing spot for incoming QBs unless and until they upgrade their skill position players -- some of the worst in the NFL. The Patriots haven't ruled out re-signing Cam Newton, whose season with the team could most charitably be described as forgettable. Howe said the team -- which holds the 15th pick in this spring's NFL Draft -- could trade up and take one of the top three or four QBs. 

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/football/nfl/player-news/headlines/9974476?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[wit33]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I can't think of an algorithm because game situation awareness involves digesting the context of the game in real time.  I can't think of a way to quantify that but who knows.

 

True, but imagine if there was, opinions would probably be different on some guys. 

 

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The quick game processing point that an NFL personnel guy questioned about Darnold via Keim's mention, that point specifically is a big emphasis in Arians' book about QBs.  Arians said almost every QB could process the field, dissect a defense, etc if you give them time.  But in the NFL you don't have a long time to process what's going on -- among other things the great QBs sees the field fast and processes things fast.

 

Venturing into a zone past my comfort zone with football knowledge, but for the fun of it and giving credit to my 20 plus years of being a fan:

 

I speculate the whole reading the field will decline in value in the coming years and believe we’re already seeing guys succeed who don’t read the field all that well or as well in comparison to other guys who don’t perform as well at the position (alert, total speculation on my part). Haven’t read the book, but Bruce Arians I hypothesize is romantic with the old school ways of how a QB must succeed. 
 

For example, I don’t watch Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Russel Wilson, Deshaun Watson and say they’re carving up the defense with their ability to read the field. Not saying at all the ability to read a defense isn’t significant (obviously), just that it no longer is the Holy Grail to being successful at being a high level QB. 

 

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My amateur take of Darnold now having rewatched 2 NFL games and 3 college games in the last two weekends combined is his mail issue is his seeing the field/vision.    You can see he's talented.  He's a big dude and can make some real beauty throws from time to time (similar in that way to Haskins) that make you think imagine if you can get those throws more consistenty.  And while he isn't fast at all, he has some elusiveness in the pocket and can throw on the movie.   

 

But for me, its just too many boneheaded decisions in games including college.  And those throws come off not like the dude is just giving his guys a chance -- they come off more like he didn't see this or that defender.  And then when you add to the pile that he IMO is not a Burrow type of QB where he has pinpoint accuracy -- the combination of the two things IMO make his game unravel.   Like Haskins, he strikes me of a dude who can have a hot game or two because sometimes consistency clicks in temporarily for inconsistent players.  Inconsistency is rarely just a perfect wave of consistent inconsisteny.  The pattern can break with ups and downs.  

The reason I’m pro Darnold is purely due to his pedigree and me lumping him in the group of the guys above athletically. Darnold I speculate played other sports and most likely basketball (Just checked, he appears to have been a good basketball player in high school) and this shows on the field. His lateral quickness looks special to me and is spatial awareness when a runner/playmaking overall is elite (where basketball comes in). It’s my belief the QB doesn’t need to be elite at reading the field if he can improvise, has a talented OC/scheme, and playmakers around him. 

[mistertim]

10 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

The other thing is you have to get a guy to develop with the eye of him being the starter in 2022 or 2023, and you’ve got to figure out how to do that.  
 

If you believe (and I do) Fitzy can magic this team to 8-10 wins, you’re picking 16-20 again next year.  
 

So where is the next guy coming from?  This year’s draft? Next year? 
 

I wouldn’t mind the move but due to his age alone, you’ve GOT to have the long-term plan on the roster soon.

 

And signing him also would be a clear indication the team doesn’t feel Kyle Allen or Beer Man is the long term answer. So the STILL need a guy and their draft position next year likely won’t be too much better, and might be worse, than this year.

 

Yeah this is a conundrum for me as well. If we get a marginal improvement at QB then we're probably going to be sitting squarely in that 7-10 win range, meaning a mid to low 1st round pick. With that sort of pick we basically have two choices: pay a bunch to trade up for a top QB, or just wait for a guy to fall to our spot who may not be a top blue chip prospect but who still has 1st round talent and hope he's the guy.

 

As far as Fitz being a "clear indication that the team doesn't feel Kyle Allen or Beer Man is the long term answer", I think the fact that the FO has been open about wanting to go after a QB upgrade and that we (reportedly) offered a 1st and 3rd for Stafford is plenty of indication. We don't really need any more. They clearly think they need an upgrade and while they like what Heinicke did vs TB they obviously aren't sold that he's the dude.

 

8 hours ago, petey hodge said:

This is totally hypothetical, but...

 

Could Tom Brady win us a SB next year with the current roster (sans the QBs)?

 

Brady's contract is through this season...or by "next SB" do you mean the 2022 season's SB? I have a feeling that Brady is going to retire after this TB stint. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Warhead36]

I mean Davonta won a Heisman with Mac Jones throwing him the ball so that makes sense.

[Skinsinparadise]

43 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

For example, I don’t watch Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Russel Wilson, Deshaun Watson and say they’re carving up the defense with their ability to read the field. Not saying at all the ability to read a defense isn’t significant (obviously), just that it no longer is the Holy Grail to being successful at being a high level QB. 

 

 

I presume your theory is based on their mobility.   Somehow I suspect some of these guys can see the field well.  But lets say they don't.  I recall you describing Darnold's style in one of your post by reciting his big run against Denver.  Though he's not fast.  He doesn't run for yards typically.   His speed is about the same as Kirk Cousins.   

 

43 minutes ago, wit33 said:

The reason I’m pro Darnold is purely due to his pedigree and me lumping him in the group of the guys above athletically. Darnold I speculate played other sports and most likely basketball (Just checked, he appears to have been a good basketball player in high school) and this shows on the field. His lateral quickness looks special to me and is spatial awareness when a runner/playmaking overall is elite (where basketball comes in). It’s my belief the QB doesn’t need to be elite at reading the field if he can improvise, has a talented OC/scheme, and playmakers around him. 

 

Yeah if I thought he has "elite" spatial awareness I'd be with you.  But I don't.  He's a good boot-roll out QB.  That's his thing.  Everyone just about has their thing.  With Haskins it was the mesh routes/hitting receivers in stride with short in routes in between the numbers.  Haskins had plenty of problems but that was his niche.  Josh Rosen, former tennis player, looked like a ballerina as for his footwork, footwork was beautiful but also had other problems.  Darnold's niche is he's really good at moving laterally to his right, dodging pressure, and boots.  

 

As for you liking Darnold, it surprises me considering how it seems to fly against some of your other points about QBs.   Darnold is elusive but he's not a runner.  He's not an Alex like avoid mistakes, don't blow up the game type of QB.  You seem to tout getting bargain deals on QBs -- he doesn't fit that either.  He'd be one of the risker moves if you got to give up a 2nd rounder and change and extend him as some suspect.  It's more of a high roller type of move with higher upside and downside than the typical move for a QB.    If you are giving up a 2nd and 4th lets say and extending his contract -- you better be right because otherwise you are setting the team back. 

Edited February 22, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

35 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

I'm actually starting to wonder if Tua's personality is an issue. Pure speculation, but this seems to be one of those things that just makes you think.

 

Mac isn't as talented as Tua, but could argue was probably more successful. Why? That's the question. And it's not really possible to answer outside of the Bama locker room. 

55 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

I speculate the whole reading the field will decline in value in the coming years and believe we’re already seeing guys succeed who don’t read the field all that well or as well in comparison to other guys who don’t perform as well at the position (alert, total speculation on my part). Haven’t read the book, but Bruce Arians I hypothesize is romantic with the old school ways of how a QB must succeed. 
 

For example, I don’t watch Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Russel Wilson, Deshaun Watson and say they’re carving up the defense with their ability to read the field. Not saying at all the ability to read a defense isn’t significant (obviously), just that it no longer is the Holy Grail to being successful at being a high level QB. 

 

 

I actually think they ARE reading the field, and quite well actually. It's just different than the old way.

 

When they escape the pocket, they are reading a pressure, which means they have likely diagnosed a coverage. Knowing the coverage allows you to attack weak points. Attacking weak points increases your accuracy. But breaking the pocket they are limiting their field read to half a field and if it's not there they are letting their instincts kick in. 

 

The only one on your list who, in my opinion, isn't reading the field well is Lamar. 

 

But I think you understand all of that...

 

But where you and I disagree is how important it is. It is extremely important. That is a major processing step. Break the pocket, read the field. 

 

Where the difference is: Traditional pocket guys have to be a five read guy on every down and don't really have the ability to break the pocket.

 

Dual Threat guys have to be a five read if in the pocket and be able to quickly navigate to a half field/hot read if they break it. 

 

Lamar Jackson doesn't really fit in either of those categories to me when I watch him play. He is a big arm, big play quarterback that doesn't read the field as well but has ridiculous athleticism and can stretch the field with his arm. 

[Skinsinparadise]

22 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I'm actually starting to wonder if Tua's personality is an issue. Pure speculation, but this seems to be one of those things that just makes you think.

 

 

He's a super nice guy reputation wise but also maybe too laid back?  In his rookie year, he seemed adverse to making mistakes, played too conservatively arguably.  Ironically similar story to fellow Hawaian, Marcus Mariota.  Mariota though can run.

 

I've liked what I've seen and read about Mac, he comes off like a gamer-competitor.  I don't know if I am sold on Mac as a player but i am not unsold either.  I can be talked into Mac and talked out of him.  I straddle the fence on Mac but I am willing to argue on his behalf when a poster makes the point that Trask is better.  IMO Mac >> Trask. 

Edited February 22, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[TradeTheBeal!]

Roethlisberger?!?

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[kingdaddy]

13 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Roethlisberger?!?

Could you imagine? How could we not entertain signing Big Ben unless we thought he was done? I thought Ben looked uninspired this season, just his expressions and the way he played. I also didn't like how he was asking for practices off and Tomlin forced him to practice (this is what I read). 

I do understand the Steelers had a very complicated COVID schedule and it seemed to really bite them in the end, but Ben looked horrible against Cincy and then Cleveland in the playoff game. Would he come to Washington re-energized with something to prove? 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Just the thought of a broken down Big Ben calling Joe, and asking for #7 after Dwayne pooped on it, is very unsettling.  I might throw up.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

9 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Could you imagine? How could we not entertain signing Big Ben unless we thought he was done? I thought Ben looked uninspired this season, just his expressions and the way he played. I also didn't like how he was asking for practices off and Tomlin forced him to practice (this is what I read). 

I do understand the Steelers had a very complicated COVID schedule and it seemed to really bite them in the end, but Ben looked horrible against Cincy and then Cleveland in the playoff game. Would he come to Washington re-energized with something to prove? 

 

3 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Just the thought of a broken down Big Ben calling Joe, and asking for #7 after Dwayne pooped on it, is very unsettling.  I might throw up.

Exciting, but also terrifying.

[actorguy1]

If this team intends to trade any draft assets for a QB, they better be utterly convinced he will significantly upgrade the position.  If there is any uncertainty, either go FA or stand pat. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Breer was just on 106.7 doubling down that the Raiders aren't trading Carr.

 

 

 

[wit33]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I presume your theory is based on their mobility.   Somehow I suspect some of these guys can see the field well.  But lets say they don't.  I recall you describing Darnold's style in one of your post by reciting his big run against Denver.  Though he's not fast.  He doesn't run for yards typically.   His speed is about the same as Kirk Cousins.   
 

 

I hypothesize Mahomes doesn’t read the field nearly as well as say a Peyton Manning in his first few years. Mahomes peak level of play to date has surpassed that of Manning it seems in many people's view. Yes, mobility plays a significant role, but I also think there’s been a dramatic increase in responsibility an OC/coach has in creating schemes to maximize the talents of their QB. Gone are the days you just blame the QB for not comprehending the great scheme of the blameless “genius coach”. Must be able to orchestrate points (coach scheming up lay ups consistently) at a high rate to win in today’s game. I’m not one who thinks Mahomes would’ve achieved similar heights to date without Andy Reid, to be honest, not even close.

 

No, I’m not saying Darnold is a straight speed guy, but more in the mold of a Mahomes type athlete at the position. I’ve seen him do everything Mahomes gets touted for from a running and creating standpoint with his legs. I dont really care if he’s running 40 yards TD runs, more so can he extend and create to buy time or pick up a 3rd and 8 in the A, B, C gaps and on the edge. 
 

We disagree that Kirk and Darnold are in the same class athletically on the football field. I would say Kirk fits how you describe Darnold. 

 

Quote

 

 

Yeah if I thought he has "elite" spatial awareness I'd be with you.  But I don't.  He's a good boot-roll out QB.  That's his thing. 
 

 

Really? Thought that’s a given just from watching a few minutes of his highlights. 

 

Quote

 

Everyone just about has their thing.  With Haskins it was the mesh routes/hitting receivers in stride with short in routes in between the numbers.  Haskins had plenty of problems but that was his niche.  Josh Rosen, former tennis player, looked like a ballerina as for his footwork, footwork was beautiful but also had other problems.  Darnold's niche is he's really good at moving laterally to his right, dodging pressure, and boots.  
 

 

Lol... comparing him to Haskins and Rosen two of the most high profiled bust to date. Respect to your psychological angle. 
 

Darnold has done more than both those guys combined and has a winning season while playing QB (7-6). He’s not quite in their category, but his time is running out as well. 
 

 

 

Quote

 

As for you liking Darnold, it surprises me considering how it seems to fly against some of your other points about QBs.   Darnold is elusive but he's not a runner.  He's not an Alex like avoid mistakes, don't blow up the game type of QB.  You seem to tout getting bargain deals on QBs -- he doesn't fit that either.  He'd be one of the risker moves if you got to give up a 2nd rounder and change and extend him as some suspect.  It's more of a high roller type of move with higher upside and downside than the typical move for a QB.    If you are giving up a 2nd and 4th lets say and extending his contract -- you better be right because otherwise you are setting the team back. 

My biggest thing for the QB is them having the ability create, extend, and run for first downs. To be honest, Darnold hasn’t run for as many first downs as I thought he would have. 
 

I don’t really have a preference for how guys get it done, but valued Alex Smith for what he was providing that particular team within the disgusting culture. He assisted the team an establishing an identity and in cultivating a positive winning culture for that particular season (Adrian Peterson just as much). Of course you want the QB to protect the ball, but Alex seemed to realize his skill set required him to be elite at it, even at the cost of limiting the teams offensive ceiling. I prefer an elite QB lol. 
 

Im intrigued.  Can’t say I like him as a QB, due to not having proper perspective of all the variables and nuances to him internally and externally. And it’s hard to say you like a QB who hasn’t been able to establish himself as a competent starter in the league. You must speculate on a guy like him.

 

No interest in trading a second round pick either. Can’t see a team doing that with his current contract. Will be fun to see how his situation unfolds. 

Edited February 22, 2021 by wit33

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

Exciting, but also terrifying.

 

If that's the theme, I'd go for this one.  Though am not that terrified.

 

 

 

 

 

Listening to Breer just now, nothing too revealing.

 

He doubled down that they swung hard for Stafford.  He thinks they will keep swinging. 

[Est.1974]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Listening to Breer just now, nothing too revealing.

 

He doubled down that they swung hard for Stafford.  He thinks they will keep swinging. 

I think we swung for Stafford, but not that hard. 

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I think we swung for Stafford, but not that hard. 

 

A 1st and a 3rd is a pretty hard swing. But we couldn't out-do the swing of the Rams. They took a running start up to the batter's box, Happy Gilmore style. We just weren't willing to look that stupid so we let them have it. 

[TradeTheBeal!]

Fitz >>> Roethlisberger at this point of their careers.

[Skinsinparadise]

24 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

I hypothesize Mahomes doesn’t read the field nearly as well as say a Peyton Manning in his first few years. Mahomes peak level of play to date has surpassed that of Manning it seems in many people's view. Yes, mobility plays a significant role, but I also think there’s been a dramatic increase in responsibility an OC/coach has in creating schemes to maximize the talents of their QB. Gone are the days you just blame the QB for not comprehending the great scheme of the blameless “genius coach”. Must be able to orchestrate points (coach scheming up lay ups consistently) at a high rate to win in today’s game. I’m not one who thinks Mahomes would’ve achieved similar heights to date without Andy Reid, to be honest, not even close.

 

 

 My take of Darnold making bonehead decisions is that he's likely not seeing the field well.  I don't get the impression watching Mahomes that he makes boneheaded decisions on a regular basis similar to Darnold.  And this isn't just my pet theory, its what multiple people who covered him in NY have said about Darnold.  but again I am making up my own mind by actually putting in some time watching him.  You can take it or leave it.  But I am sticking with my impression.  If you think you've scoped out Mahomes and do not think he necessarily sees the field well himself -- cool -- I haven't really sat down and studied Mahomes.

 

24 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

No, I’m not saying Darnold is a straight speed guy, but more in the mold of a Mahomes type athlete at the position. I’ve seen him do everything Mahomes gets touted for from a running and creating standpoint with his legs. I dont really care if he’s running 40 yards TD runs, more so can he extend and create to buy time or pick up a 3rd and 8 in the A, B, C gaps and on the edge. 

 

Mahomes might be the best I've ever seen at throwing off platform and making plays when the pocket breaks.  If you see the same from Darnold, I'll say two things.  Have you watched a full game yet or are you still just judging by the highlights?  If its highlights every player looks pretty darn good.  If you take my best moments of my career and put them in a reel where they all come at you back to back, I'd look awesome.   Second thing is if you watched him and he can do everything Mahomes can as for creating -- you shouldn't have a beef with even giving a 2nd rounder for him. Heck I'd give up a first and change if he was that good.

 

24 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

We disagree that Kirk and Darnold are in the same class athletically on the football field. I would say Kirk fits how you describe Darnold. 

 

 

No it doesn't.  You aren't reading my posts if that's your takeaway.  You are selling Darnold but I've been much more specific than you as for what I think are his assets and drawbacks including what he could do athleticlly. 

 

24 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Lol... comparing him to Haskins and Rosen two of the most high profiled bust to date. Respect to your psychological angle. 

 

lol, you are acting here like its rare to have busts at the QB spot.  It aint just Haskins and Rosen.

 

24 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Im intrigued.  Can’t say I like him as a QB, due to not having proper perspective of all the variables and nuances to him internally and externally. And it’s hard to say you like a QB who hasn’t been able to establish himself as a competent starter in the league. You must speculate on a guy like him.

 

No interest in trading a second round pick either. Can’t see a team doing that with his current contract. Will be fun to see how his situation unfolds. 

 

If your theory is Darnold can be had cheap, then I can care less who they roll the dice on whether I like that player or not. I'd have no angst about it.   Will see.  Maybe the national reporters have been played but the consensus seems to be it will be a 2nd at a minimum.

Edited February 22, 2021 by Skinsinparadise