Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[mistertim]

18 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I was thinking about Lamar Jackson and how far the Ravens think they can go with him? The Ravens have a very good defense, solid running game and horrible passing attack. What is holding them back? There's a team with a big time stud QB who hasn't been able to take them to the next level. Again, an example of how hard it is to find top QB's. 

 

Eh, honestly I think it's hard to actually place Jackson. As a passer he's definitely not in the Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, etc echelon. He's pretty good but nothing amazing. The running threat is what makes him dangerous. But that's only going to last so long until he either loses a step or two due to age or gets injured. I really don't see running QBs as long term solutions. They'll give you a shot of adrenaline for a handful of seasons but I think that's likely it.

 

The Ravens completely built their offensive roster and offensive system around Jackson and his dual threat ability. Once he's done, they'll have to completely reinvent themselves again. Honestly, I'm not positive it will all have been worth it in the end (unless they do actually win a SB).

 

Now, guys who are really athletic and use that to extend plays and make off schedule stuff happen? To me that's a totally different thing. That's the Mahomes, Allen, Wilson (and to a certain extent Rodgers) category.

[Busch1724]

I get the easy disregard to Cam. Last year, outside of the first two games, were bad. However, he had nothing around him on offense. I don't know if Brady would have been able to do anything with that cast of receivers. He struggled the year before with them. It's hard to evaluate Cam at this point for that reason. However, he's been inconsistent and I'm sure that is what makes the front office hesitant to grab him. I would think that since Ron didn't get him last year speaks volumes, but damnit the intrigue is still there. 

[wit33]

2 hours ago, skinsfan212689 said:

I feel Lamar is very athletic I give you that. Maybe he works hard also. But I’ve seen far too many times him missing routine throws pro qbs should easily make. Additionally, if he wasn’t on that good ravens team his weaknesses would be more prevalent in my opinion. To you MJ analogy, I’ll say I’m today’s game, Mahomes would be MJ in my opinion. 

I was referring to the plight of Jordan in the 80s who fans, media, and coaches believed was unable to win a championship as a SG/league leading scorer. He had to break through this barrier and carve his own way of doing things. 
 

Lamar Jackson as a rookie took a Ravens team trending towards a sun .500 season and led them to a magical second half season run and into the playoffs. 
 

His impact on the run game is like no other player in the history of the NFL and the biggest reason the Ravens have been a contender the last two seasons. 
 

Hes three years into his career, has made the playoffs each year and is an MVP winner. Rodgers who makes whatever routine throws you’re talking about and has been at the top of his game for the ten years has not won SB during that period. 
 

Maybe Jackson won’t become as accurate or make as many 3rd or 4th read throws as Rodgers did in his career, but I believe he’s effective in other ways to be a SB winning QB. Just like Jordan wasn’t going to win his championships by leading the league in assists or scoring on the block with up and unders/jump hooks. 

 

1 hour ago, kingdaddy said:

I was thinking about Lamar Jackson and how far the Ravens think they can go with him? The Ravens have a very good defense, solid running game and horrible passing attack. What is holding them back? There's a team with a big time stud QB who hasn't been able to take them to the next level. Again, an example of how hard it is to find top QB's. 

 
What’s the next level? The Ravens with a young QB have been in the playoffs the last three seasons and a contender the last two. Russel Wilson hasn’t been past the divisional round the last 6 seasons, Rodgers hasn’t been to a SB in 10 years. Obviously both of these guys are former SB winners, but do they get a pass the rest of their careers? 
 

If the QB is the catalyst and biggest reason the team is getting to the past season, then you must keep building around him. Whether he’s a QB that doesn’t get to his 4th and 5th read and relies heavily on his legs or pocket/extending QB like Rodgers or Wilson. 

Edited February 24, 2021 by wit33

[mistertim]

7 minutes ago, Busch1724 said:

I get the easy disregard to Cam. Last year, outside of the first two games, were bad. However, he had nothing around him on offense. I don't know if Brady would have been able to do anything with that cast of receivers. He struggled the year before with them. It's hard to evaluate Cam at this point for that reason. However, he's been inconsistent and I'm sure that is what makes the front office hesitant to grab him. I would think that since Ron didn't get him last year speaks volumes, but damnit the intrigue is still there. 

 

I watched a handful of Cam's games last season. He was pretty awful. It wasn't just his supporting cast. He looked like a crappy QB and missed lots of routine throws; that's not the fault of the receivers or OL. I'd take most FA options before I'd look to Cam. And Rivera didn't want him last season so I doubt he's suddenly changed his mind. 

[DefinitelyMaybe]

6 minutes ago, Busch1724 said:

I get the easy disregard to Cam. Last year, outside of the first two games, were bad. However, he had nothing around him on offense. I don't know if Brady would have been able to do anything with that cast of receivers. He struggled the year before with them. It's hard to evaluate Cam at this point for that reason. However, he's been inconsistent and I'm sure that is what makes the front office hesitant to grab him. I would think that since Ron didn't get him last year speaks volumes, but damnit the intrigue is still there. 

Agreed, just go back and watch defences that played against the Pats last season they had 0 over the top threat so they loaded he box almost all of the time

 

The fact he managed to put up 592 Rush yards and 12 TD’s is actually quite impressive

 

It’d be foolish to think his passing stats wouldn’t improve with McClaurin and another stud FA WR in comparison to the awful group he was throwing to last season, how much they’d improve is the big gamble here

[wit33]

6 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I watched a handful of Cam's games last season. He was pretty awful. It wasn't just his supporting cast. He looked like a crappy QB and missed lots of routine throws; that's not the fault of the receivers or OL. I'd take most FA options before I'd look to Cam. And Rivera didn't want him last season so I doubt he's suddenly changed his mind. 

Brady looked really bad at times with that supporting cast as well and was absolutely atrocious in the playoff game. And that was the GOAT. 

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Brady looked really bad at times with that supporting cast as well and was absolutely atrocious in the playoff game. And that was the GOAT. 

 

Yeah the supporting cast isn't amazing, but that doesn't have anything to do with Cam missing routine throws and just not looking like a good QB at all. Brady had a lot of that crappy supporting cast in 2019 and, even though it was a bit of a down year for him, he still had 24 TDs to 8 INTs. Nothing amazing, but he wasn't making the kind of boneheaded plays Cam was. I just don't see much purpose in bringing Cam in unless we've pretty much completely run out of other options. 

 

[redskinss]

34 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Now, guys who are really athletic and use that to extend plays and make off schedule stuff happen? To me that's a totally different thing

You mean like this?

Or how about this?

 

I'm sorry I couldn't resist.

 

You and I are actually on pretty much the same page on heinicke, I'm probably a little more optimistic but I totally understand all the reservations and why we definitely need to keep all options on the table.

[Darth Tater]

40 minutes ago, Busch1724 said:

I get the easy disregard to Cam. Last year, outside of the first two games, were bad. However, he had nothing around him on offense. I don't know if Brady would have been able to do anything with that cast of receivers. He struggled the year before with them. It's hard to evaluate Cam at this point for that reason. However, he's been inconsistent and I'm sure that is what makes the front office hesitant to grab him. I would think that since Ron didn't get him last year speaks volumes, but damnit the intrigue is still there. 

Over the back 8 of 2019, the Pats were a 500 team with Brady.  He told us the problem which is what you said.  So, I agree that Cam's failure is probably not on him. Don't think Ron not signing him last year speaks as loud as many think.

[CommDownMan]

8 hours ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

Mahomes is not a supremely athletic QB who broke through ?

 

 

 

Glad I'm not the only person who values Moreau.

I feel like a lot of people would not appreciate him until he's gone. And then does well, somewhere else. I feel strongly that he's a starter, on most NFL teams.

Does anyone want to keep KPL, at least for depth ? Or in case we can't find someone better ?

 

I was excited when they drafted him and wondered about his usage down the stretch.  It seems like the talent is there, but it's hard to see the teams opinion being really positive. 

 

It makes sense from our perspective to bring back at a lower deal, but I'm torn if that's something the team wants to do.  More gut feeling than real understanding, but just my thought on him.

 

KPL probably depends on if they spend on a David, Jayon Brown or Milano (or draft pick).  I think they want to upgrade here and it'll be his cost going forward vs who else they bring in.  I'd be curious if they swap Bostic (~3 mill saving) depending on any LB they bring in and if cost is similar.  I would guess they sign one bigger name and then try to keep one of Bostic/KPL at ~3mill on a backup role, where the need is bigger (LaVonte David/KPL or Brown/Bostic). 

[mistertim]

19 minutes ago, redskinss said:

You mean like this?

Or how about this?

 

I'm sorry I couldn't resist.

 

You and I are actually on pretty much the same page on heinicke, I'm probably a little more optimistic but I totally understand all the reservations and why we definitely need to keep all options on the table.

 

Absolutely like that. Contrary to how it may come across, I'm not a Heinicke "hater". I really liked what we saw from him vs TB. But I'm also realistic about the chances that he's actually a great QB that many teams have passed over. We also have a very limited sample size.

 

So I'm all for him getting to compete, and happy for him that he got the deal...that's got to be awesome after coming in off the street. But I'm not going to put all of my eggs into his basket. And it seems like RR and his people are thinking along the same lines.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Hear me out. I think I could come around on Cam Newton, because of who he is, and because of who he succeeded with. If Rivera brings him on for a 1-2 year cheap-ish deal to run this offense, I would have to trust his judgment. If I were any other QB needy team I would be weary, but if it's Ron, who knows him best, that brings him in I have to trust that.

 

I think I have gotten to the point where my "wish list" is as follows ...

 

Sign Cam Newton to an incentive-laden 1-2 year deal ala Heinecke. Maybe 2 years and up to $16m in total value if he starts a certain % of games or something.

 

Find a rookie to try and groom. If that's Jamie Newman in Round 3 or 4, fine. But my preference would be Trey Lance. If he gets within striking distance, move up and get him.

 

A QB room of Newton, Heinecke, Lance would be stellar. Newton and Heinecke battle it out for starting role. If one of them falters at any point, you turn to the guy behind him, and at no point are you really in a position to have to turn to Lance in 2021, which is ideal for his development. Lance is also very much in the mold of Cam, so it would be good for him to sit behind him and learn for a year or two. Jamie Newman would also fit that mold as well ... raw, athletic, running ability, etc. So IMO both of those guys would benefit from being our QB3 in 2021.

 

So sign Cam to a 1-2 year incentive laden deal.

Target Lance (Trade up) or Newman (mid rounds) in the draft to be your QB3.

 

Use the rest of free agency and the draft to build the weapons on offense and add a LB.

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I'll double-down and say the most IDEAL situation for this team isn't trading up for Justin Fields or Zach Wilson in the Top 5.

 

It's signing Cam for 1-2 years and hoping Lance falls just enough that you can trade up for him without giving up too many future picks. Hear me out.

 

Cap commitment to QB once Smith is released and Newton is signed in 2021 and 2022 ... minimal for the position (maybe $10-12m between Heneicke and Newton).

 

Then you factor in the trade-up for Lance. Sure he's another $4-5m per year which is expensive for a QB3, but he's your future. You also have no pressure to develop him immediately. He can be your presumptive 2022 QB, but if it has to wait until 2023 that's okay too. Cam or Heneicke are both signed through 2022 in this case.

 

Your cap commitment isn't substantial at all compared to what others in the league pay QBs AND you get a rookie contract QB to build around in the future. You also don't have to commit too much capital. Probably a mid-round pick this year and a 1st next year. Not "crippling" by any means.

 

AND, if Lance goes Top 6 and you can't get within striking distance, you still have Cam/Heinecke battling it out, and you can target someone in the middle rounds to groom in the event neither Cam or Heinecke is "it" beyond 2021. Let's say you draft Jamie Newman in Round 4. Cam and Heinecke flash but are fairly average to below average and the team goes 8-8 and misses the playoffs. Maybe you have a chance to see what you have in Newman, and maybe he shows the staff enough that they prioritize his development in 2022 to compete with Cam/Heinecke. Or maybe he is just a 'backup type' QB and you really dive head first into the QBs in the 2022 draft.

 

It's the same argument I make for Mariota, except with Cam there's less "he is the future" if you get it right and "reclaim" his abilities. But there's also a bit more security in that he's done it better in the past, and has fimiliarty with the FO.

Edited February 24, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[mistertim]

I'd go with Fitz WAY before even thinking about Cam.

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I'll double-down and say the most IDEAL situation for this team isn't trading up for Justin Fields or Zach Wilson in the Top 5.

 

It's signing Cam for 1-2 years and hoping Lance falls just enough that you can trade up for him without giving up too many future picks. Hear me out.

 

 

 

The mocks and also reports as to interest in QBs from various teams would have to be wildly off.  It has happened like that before but while I don't buy into mock drafts as gospel, I do genuinely think there are a ton of teams who are into upgrading at Qb this off season who are picking ahead of us.  

 

So for me the Lance falls just enough is likely a pipe dream, I think he drops to #8 at the latest.  I do think some of the mock drafters who are calling Mac Jones a top 10 pick might be off.  So if you made the same point about Mac Jones, I could see it.  I don't mean by that I like Mac the way I do Lance because I don't.  I am not sold on Mac.  But I do think Mac could end up in the mid teens are even fall to #19.  I'd be more surprised that Lance lands at lets say 15 than I would him going top 5. 

 

You add to the pile that supposedly Atlanta is really looking hard at getting a yoiung Qb and the Eagles are also perhaps now looking at QB -- I'd be stunned to see all these teams just pass on Lance. 

Edited February 24, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[clskinsfan]

Cam was atrocious in the second half of the season last year. Horrible. Now I dont know if he was fighting some kind of injury. But the guy was not good. Lance is an unknown and I actually prefer Jones as an NFL QB. Hell I would actually prefer Jamie Newman to Lance. He isnt going to cost you a first rounder. Or even more likely needing to trade up for Lance. Newman will be there in the second and possibly in the third round.  And the guy is a more proven prospect than Lance at this point. 

[wit33]

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Cam was atrocious in the second half of the season last year. Horrible. Now I dont know if he was fighting some kind of injury. But the guy was not good. Lance is an unknown and I actually prefer Jones as an NFL QB. Hell I would actually prefer Jamie Newman to Lance. He isnt going to cost you a first rounder. Or even more likely needing to trade up for Lance. Newman will be there in the second and possibly in the third round.  And the guy is a more proven prospect than Lance at this point. 

Cam requires the individual to think outside of the box on how he can help win games. I’m not saying this “box” is right or wrong, but he obviously isn’t going to provide value in similar ways than some of the other average to above QBs (the hope would be he’d be average to above). You instantly become a top 10 rushing offense. dynamic in the red zone and on 1st and 2nd down. The other side of it is you will struggle with consistency in the pass game/lack of rhythm and 3rd and longs will most likely will be bottom 3rd in the league. 
 

Have you ever been a fan of Newton?

Edited February 24, 2021 by wit33

[ODU AGGIE]

3 hours ago, DefinitelyMaybe said:

Whether you like it or you don’t of the cheap category QB’s that are going to be available Cam is probably the best of the bunch

 

I used to be a hard no but he has a point regards prep last season with Corona Virus, had the 30th ranked WR core too!

 

Did he light it up through the air? Absolutely not but he did on the ground, if you have Cam, McClaurin, A Rob, Gibson, Logan, a new TE and Power Back I’m completely convinced he’d perform far better next season

Oh and this isn’t an advocation for him to be “The Guy” but for one or two seasons on a cap friendly deal it’s foolish to not at least consider it

 

So -- you're talking "cheap category QB's that are... available [to the Football Team]". Well, the best one in that category is the one we already have -- Taylor Heinicke!

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Cam requires the individual to think outside of the box on how he can help win games. I’m not saying this “box” is right or wrong, but he obviously isn’t going to provide value in similar ways than some of the other average to above QBs (the hope would be he’d be average to above). You instantly become a top 10 rushing offense. dynamic in the red zone and on 1st and 2nd down. The other side of it is you will struggle with consistency in the pass game/lack of rhythm and 3rd and longs will most likely will be bottom 3rd in the league. 
 

Have you ever been a fan of Newton?

I thought Cam Newton was one of the best QB prospects to ever enter the draft. So yes. I was a fan. 

[DefinitelyMaybe]

4 minutes ago, ODU AGGIE said:

So -- you're talking "cheap category QB's that are... available [to the Football Team]". Well, the best one in that category is the one we already have -- Taylor Heinicke!

I don’t think that’s quite right, I suppose I don’t know it’s not but we don’t know it is

 

I hope what your saying is right but for now he’s played 5 quarters or so of football in comparison to Fitz, Cam, Trubisky etc. I don’t think we know he’s better than those for sure

[Burgundy Yoda]

4 QBs going in the top 8 would suck, I can't even remember the last time that's happened but that basically puts us out of reasonable striking distance IMO. I was kind of hoping we would just have to trade in front of the Patriots to get Trey Lance. 

Edited February 24, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 minutes ago, ODU AGGIE said:

So -- you're talking "cheap category QB's that are... available [to the Football Team]". Well, the best one in that category is the one we already have -- Taylor Heinicke!

 

I agree, kind of. Heinecke has a lot more of a ceiling (younger, but unproven). Cam has a safer floor (older, lost a step, but proven).

 

The case I made above is actually not a slight to Heinecke at all. It's that I think Cam complements him and vice versa. Whoever wins the job will be better for it. Heinecke beating out Cam may have more to do with his abilities than Cam's lack of abilities. If he loses to Cam, he's still a solid backup that could pinch-hit if Cam falters. I think Cam-Heinecke as your QB1 and QB2 sets you up for having a certain floor, while also leaving open the chance Heinecke emerges with a new consistent ceiling, if that makes sense.

Just now, Burgundy Yoda said:

4 QBs going in the top 8 would suck, I can't even remember the last time that's happened but that basically puts us out of reasonable striking distance IMO. 

 

It's certainly a loaded class and there are way more teams that need a QB than normal, so if there is a year for it to happen, this is the year. But I'm pretty sure 4 QBs haven't gone Top 10 in a very long time. And now that there's talk that Mac Jones could enter the Top 10 conversations makes me wonder if someone like Lance, who is a higher-risk pick, does end up sliding a bit as the QB4 or even QB5 on some draft boards.

 

I bet there are some teams that have a Late Round 1 grade on him simply because of his lack of tape and competition in college. And while that still means he's a Top 15-20 pick by pure attrition, it might lead to some teams passing on him in the Top 10.

 

Like, if Carolina has Lance as a late-Round 1 prospect and Mac Jones as a mid-R1 prospect, then at pick 8 they probably go with Jones. Now, if they have Lance as a Top 10 and Mac as a mid-1st, they obviously go with Lance. But we have no idea what these teams are thinking.

[Skinsinparadise]

I like Cam, old school Cam pre 2nd shoulder surgery.  I've just not seen the old Cam since.  Two shoulder surgeries seemed to effect his arm strength or something that has made him at times painful to watch.    When he was at his best, he wasn't the most accurate dude but he could do enough with his arm to make enough of an impact when you couple that with his running ability.

 

For me to buy into Cam I'd need to be convinced that Ron and company are convinced the old Cam is back.  Otherwise if we are going with a dude who can run but is questionable as a passer, I don't see much difference in that with Tyrod Taylor.   Like Cam, Taylor can run for 500 yards plus.

 

Neither would be my pick in FA.  For me its Fitzpatrick. 

Edited February 24, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

Falcons should have some balls and pick Lance. Perfect timing whilst that Ryan contract is hanging around.

Edited February 24, 2021 by UK SKINS FAN 74

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

I bet there are some teams that have a Late Round 1 grade on him simply because of his lack of tape and competition in college. And while that still means he's a Top 15-20 pick by pure attrition, it might lead to some teams passing on him in the Top 10.

 

Like, if Carolina has Lance as a late-Round 1 prospect and Mac Jones as a mid-R1 prospect, then at pick 8 they probably go with Jones. Now, if they have Lance as a Top 10 and Mac as a mid-1st, they obviously go with Lance. But we have no idea what these teams are thinking.

 

the problem I think for betting on Lance to slip is that he's exactly the prototype of QBs that have surprisingly slipped in years past and teams in hindsight lived to regret it.  I think the QBs with big time measurables especially those who can run I doubt slip in the near future.  I don't think its lost on the NFL that Watson, L. Jackson, etc slipped more than they should.

 

Mac Jones I think is the harder to sell because he doesn't fit the growing prototype for today's QB where mobility is becoming king. 

Edited February 24, 2021 by Skinsinparadise