Voice_of_Reason Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Just now, Renegade7 said: You get more chances in OT, we got one to get 2 yards. You also have to do more. it’s not like it used to be, just first score wins. I think the statistics actually say you have a high win probability going for 2. Which I don’t care that much about, but winning in OT has become a lot harder with the rule changes. And we’re not good and liable to botch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mooka Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 We either lost on purpose or Ron went for it not really caring if we lose so we can tank. Overwise the playcall made no sense. It was very similar to the 4th and goal against the Ravens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Sinister Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Veretax said: I agree with the call to go for 2. The play call however... oy.. what the heck. cam sims was singled up high... and I hav eno idea what they were running on that side of the field. I think weve been spoiled the last decade, with offensive input from guys like the two Shanahans, McVay, LaFleur, Callahan, Gruden, O'Connel, etc. Norvs boy seems fairly ordinary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stoshuaj Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, redskins59 said: That was a bad decision then. This is why you need a coach who is an intellectual. I’m not sure what your 0.5 references. Is that meant to represent 50%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xameil Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 27 minutes ago, Rskins91 said: I have no problem with the call. Just the execution Call was bad because we don't have a team that can execute it...so yeah...still on the coach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said: You also have to do more. it’s not like it used to be, just first score wins. I think the statistics actually say you have a high win probability going for 2. Which I don’t care that much about, but winning in OT has become a lot harder with the rule changes. And we’re not good and liable to botch it. I'd need to see the carfax on that one, we are playing the odds game here, going for two is a coin flip at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KillBill26 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 You riverboatin SOB you old sailor you!! I liked the call to go for 2. We are not very good. At least try to make it exciting and be bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdlives Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Don’t hate the call to go for 2. Hate the play call. Didn’t look it would’ve worked from before the snap. Maybe something more creative? Or possibly something with a higher rate of success? It looked like a 1 read play and the target was covered forcing an improv which had no chance because he was already next to the sideline with no where to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dont Taze Me Bro Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 52 minutes ago, Redskinsjab22 said: Ron ...tie the game. As a 43;years and counting fan...we need wins. Not dice rolling . Come on man. also Haskins isn’t the right guy. Fisher Price - My First Post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CobraCommander Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 It's his first year. He's gambling with house money for the first two years at least. After that any lost bets will be on his dime(job). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
posse87 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 He strategically passed the Giants in the Trevor Lawrence sweep stakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskins59 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, stoshuaj said: I’m not sure what your 0.5 references. Is that meant to represent 50%? Yeah, that's correct. But even then, it's more subtle just based on probability. The thing here is that, we are dealing with something called a bernoulli distribution. Bernoulli is basically a binary distribution: you either score, or you don't. So if the probability is 0.47, then your expectation is 0.94 points (0.47 * 2). Here is where the concept of variance come into play. The variance can be calculated easily based on the probability you provided, and it is 0.47*(1-0.47). So the variance is 0.2491 Now, what if you went for a single point? Kickers miss sometimes. Let's suppose the probability of success is 94%, twice that of going for two. Now, the expectation is the the same (0.94*1). But guess what, the variance went down to 0.06 or so. The variance tells you the spread. You miss more often than not when you go for 2, whereas the 1 is just more stable. Ron Rivera basically gambled. Now, people may be saying, what I said above is pretty much common sense. I just gave a mathematical reason. Based on the variance, you go for 1, not two. I think there are probably plays out there that succeed more often than not when going for 2. So I wonder if it's possible to push the probability to greater than 0.5? In that case, I would go for 2 every single time. Defenses are smart though. So if those plays work today, it doesn't mean it will work in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drowland Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 44 minutes ago, Warhead36 said: Agreed. We can't sustain offense at all. What's more likely: picking up 2 yards on one play or picking up ~75 on a string of plays? And if we lose the coin toss, we could lose without even having a chance. Our D has given up more 40+ yard plays than any other team in the league and was on the field a ton in the 2nd half. You go for 2. It was a fine call. Unfortunately it didn't work out. Don't be results oriented. The defense hadn't given up any points in the 2nd half. I'd have more confidence in the defense getting a stop or a TO then this offense doing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOATFrerotte Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 It’s usually what loser teams do. Not happy with Ron on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheShredder Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 40 minutes ago, redskins59 said: That was a bad decision then. This is why you need a coach who is an intellectual. Not really. Basically a coin flip compared to a coin flip. In the NFL, 52.7 percent of teams winning the overtime coin toss (and receiving) win the game at some point in overtime, according to Ross Tucker of SiriusXM NFL Radio. In college football, the team that wins the coin toss (and defers) wins 54.9 percent of the time. With that consideration, you go for it when you have nothing to lose as you're playing the team you'd be tied with if it doesn't work. Q: Whether you respect a HC with balls or prefer the conservatives like Old Man Callahan? A: WWJGD = What Would Joe Gibbs Do??? or Bellichik? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xameil Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, TheShredder said: Not really. Basically a coin flip compared to a coin flip. In the NFL, 52.7 percent of teams winning the overtime coin toss (and receiving) win the game at some point in overtime, according to Ross Tucker of SiriusXM NFL Radio. In college football, the team that wins the coin toss (and defers) wins 54.9 percent of the time. With that consideration, you go for it when you have nothing to lose as you're playing the team you'd be tied with if it doesn't work. We aren't tied with them..they win the head to head so now we are last in the NFC East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Just now, Xameil said: We aren't tied with them..they win the head to head so now we are last in the NFC East who gives a crap does anyone actually look at this team and see a division champion caliber roster? We need to dismiss this "OMG we can win the division" non sense. We have a 4-12 caliber team at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xameil Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Just now, Warhead36 said: who gives a crap does anyone actually look at this team and see a division champion caliber roster? We need to dismiss this "OMG we can win the division" non sense. We have a 4-12 caliber team at most. Lol maybe I just have a different perspective living in Giants/Jets/Bills/Patriots land... I hate the giants more then any team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petey hodge Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 why not some sort of read option tho? that busted play seemed so vanilla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedBNG Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Except for maybe a few in preseason, I knew we lost the game before the attempt because we never get those 2 pointers. Maybe Ron is thinking to get as close to the top pick in the draft as some of the fans are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheShredder Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, Xameil said: We aren't tied with them..they win the head to head so now we are last in the NFC East It's Week 6 so, WFT and NYG aren't winning anything except a higher draft pick so you clearly have that backwards. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dissident2 Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 What I really don't get is Ron's explanation after the game, where he says "playing on the road favors the home team in overtime." He seemed to be insinuating that the crowd noise or something would've been a factor. There were ZERO fans in the stands today. They could've been playing anywhere. As far as I understand it, there's a very low level audio track of crowd noise in stadiums, but it's the same everywhere. I don't get this idea that there's some sort of home team advantage unless the home team actually has fans in the stadium. Just another in the long line of weird comments from this guy since he got here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xameil Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, TheShredder said: It's Week 6 so, WFT and NYG aren't winning anything except a higher draft pick so you clearly have that backwards. lol Oh I agree...just stating facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Warhead36 said: Don't be results oriented. The entire league is results-oriented, though lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedBNG Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 55 minutes ago, posse87 said: He strategically passed the Giants in the Trevor Lawrence sweep stakes The Jets can't even score against the Dolphins (so far). I think they will win that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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