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Voice_of_Reason

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  1. thank you! I tried to just look at the play objectively. Down/distance is important. I didn’t go back and look, but it seemed like they weren’t very good on 3rd downs throughout the day. They also schemed a lot of guys wide open on some late third downs. My other takeaway was Bamas defense had a bad day. Unusual for a Saban defense. But they got had a lot. I really have questions on the arm strength. Specifically driving the ball to the outside. I saw that in both games I watched. The ball hangs up. It’s possible. I’m not going to though because I have no intention of getting drawn into the Maye/Daniels debate. That’s a road to frustration. My family owns many. I think I’ll just leave it at that.
  2. Ok, fine. I got bated into watching this package. Bottom line up front: this was a BAD BAD BAD game from an NFL perspective for McCarthy. This convinces me more than ever we're getting a massive sell job, because between this and the Ohio State game, I come away thinking McCarthy is an average college QB on a fantastic team with none of the traits needed to be an NFL QB. It's possible I'm missing something, but if we select this guy, I'm going to be scratching my head. So, I guess now I have a more clear opinion. I used to have basically none, because I watched one college game the entire year while drinking beer. Now I've watched this package fairly closely. So my opinion has changed from not having an opinion to "not this guy. Pick somebody else." Maybe he develops and is the next GOAT. But nothing I saw leads me to think that would be the case. Biggest criticisms: - He holds the ball. - Throws high a lot. - Most of his successful throws travel 4-10 yards to an open receiver. - Average arm strength at best. Has zip on short throws. Driving the ball to the outside, ball looses velocity quickly. - Did I mention he holds the ball? - Does not seem to recognize 1:1 matchups pre-snap. Yech. That was awful. Look below for play by play analysis. Play 1: After the play fake has a guy WIDE OPEN at the 30 for an easy completion, holds the ball, keeps running, and then throws a ball in the general direction of the sideline. He might have been trying to get it out of bounds, or he didn't see the guy who picked it off. Play grade: F-. Play 2: Quick screen to the short side of the field. NOTE: the has is MUCH closer to the sideline in college than the pros. In the pros, that throw is another 10-15 yards. Good velocity and accuracy on the throw, but it's a throw a D-1 college QB should make 10 times out of 10. Pay Grade: C. But couldn't be higher because of the play. Play 3: Incomplete pass. Throw was late. If he throws it when his back foot hits, it's a completion. This is an easy concept, where he's reading to his left, both receivers are immediately covered, the TE is wide open running right to left, and he's late. You could argue he should have known the quick game to his left was going to be covered based on pre-snap read, the CB was taking inside coverage on the outside receiver. The receiver who came in motion and went to the slot at the snap was going to run directly into the zone of the nickel corner. That route combination was dead at the snap. If he had recognized that, he could come to TE 89 immediately and it's a completion. Pay Grade: D. Play 4: He had 2 receivers open, the deeper one was at the "M" on the field at the 42 yard line. I honestly can't tell what happened because the resolution isn't great. It looks like he threw the ball to the feet of the near receiver. I'm going to grade this as an incomplete because I can't tell what he was trying to do. Having said that, this should have been a 10 yard minimum completion to the deep receiver who was open by 8 yards and it was an incomplete, so something didn't happen correctly. Play 5: Quick screen to the right, the ball traveled from one hash to the other. Everything I said about Play 2 holds here. Play Grade: C. But it couldn't be any higher. Play 6: QB Keeper. His athletic ability is not in question. Play Grade: Not grading designed running plays. Play 7: Scrambles to his left and then throws late on the sideline. This was overly complicated. If he throws on time to his outside WR on the left, he has a TD. The receiver has inside leverage, and runs right by the CB, and the safety is caught going the other way. And he was staring right at it. But he's late on the read, bails the pocket. He gets an upgrade for making a throw in the scramble drill. Play Grade: C. Made something out of missing a a read for a sure TD. Play 8: TD. This was a TD to the RB who leaked out late and Alabama completely lost him. It was a 9 yard throw to a player who didn't have a white shirt within 10 yards of him. And McCarthy didn't have a white shirt within 4 yards of him either. Play Grade: C. But it couldn't have been any higher. Play 9: This is the first "good" play! But it's still late. He waits until his receiver breaks to throw the ball. In the NFL, you've got to throw that ball out there before the receiver makes his break so the ball is on him before the CB has time to react. Difference between college and pro. The receiver was wide open. Play grade: B. Play 10: QB Draw. Looked designed. Not grading designed QB runs Play 11: Got a completion over the middle for 7 yards on 3rd and 9. What he did was fine. He had a 1:1 matchup on the left side he didn't even look at. If he had, he would have seen his receiver chucked the DB basically on his ass and he would have had the first if not a TD. I can't tell who that WR is, but DAMN that was a good chuck. Play Grade: B-. Got a completion, but should have recognized the 1:1 coverage on a WR on 3rd and 9 and not immediately gone to the checkdown. Play 12: This is a good college play and an incompletion, and would be a pick-6 in the NFL. Throws somewhat late to the right side. It's a 30 yard out which is thrown with a lot of loft on the ball. The receiver has to go up to get it. It isn't driven to the spot. In this case the ball was over the head of an open receiver. Play grade: C-. Ok in college. Disaster in the NFL. Play 13: I'm going to give him a pass on this play. He sprints and throws the ball with velocity on 3rd and 6. This was essentially a 2 receiver route and both were covered. By rolling right, he cut the field in half. When both of those guys are blanketed, not much you can do. Play Grade: B for not doing something dumb. Play 14: Throws over the middle to the TE in timing, but behind him. Play Grade: B-. Right read, bad throw, but got a completion. Play 15: TRICKERATION! Backwards pass to the right, ball thrown back to McCarthy, who then completes the ball down field. This was madly impressive. The throw back to McCarthy was awful, and he had to jump up to get it. Then he had a guy in his face, and managed to organize himself well enough to throw the ball down field. Play Grade: A. Play 16: Short completion to TE on a crosser who's wide open. Good protection. A little late on the throw, but not too bad. Play Grade: B+ Play 17: Escaped the pocket and threw it away. He had #9 if he threw it immediately. Protection broke down quickly. Play Grade: C+. He could have had a completion, but he didn't take a sack and got out of trouble. Play 18: Bad throw late to a wide open receiver who fell down because he had to contort himself to make the catch. Play Grade: C. Got the completion, should have been a lot more. Play 19: Quick throw. In time. Terrible throw high. Play Grade: D. Play 20: Quick throw. Open receiver. Led him too far. Play Grade: D. Play 21: Hit as the threw off of Play Action. Play Grade: Not-graded. Play 22: This is an interesting play. It's 3rd and 9. He has a guy running wide open 4 yards down field when he hits the top of his drop. Looking right at him. He turns it down and evades to his right. Which might be ok, if you're looking for something deeper. But then he tries to hit another guy 4 yards down field while on the run and it's incomplete. If you're going to turn down the layup because he's going to get tackled before the 1st, then don't just throw to another guy who's going to get tackled. Play Grade: D. Play 23: This is a really great play design. The guy running the jet sweep turns into the receiver. Alabama completely loses him. McCarthy hits this in time. Good play to a wide open receiver. Play Grade: B. Play 24: Quick WR screen. 7 yard throw. It was fine. Play Grade: C. But it couldn't have been any higher. Play 25: Quick WR screen. From one hash to the next. It was fine. Play Grade: C. But it couldn't have been any higher. Play 26: 3rd and 2. Rolls immediately right and then throws a ball into a lot of traffic that gets batted down. Very odd playcall. Play Grade: C. It could have been a disaster. Play 27: 4th and 2 which followed the 3rd and 2 odd play-call. Alabama completely loses the RB, and it's an easy completion. Play Grade: B. Easy completion to a wide open WR. But it was 4th and 2. Play 28: QB keeper. Not grading designed QB runs Play 29: Possibly my least favorite play of the game. Maybe. He HOLDS the ball so long, then throws high. It's complete for a big gain. In the NFL, the WR is being escorted to the blue tent at best, or it's an INT, or both. When you throw late and high in the NFL, only bad things happen. Play Grade: F. Even thought it was a completed pass for a big gain. Awful play. Play 30: Great play design. TD pass. The ball traveled 4 yards in the air. Wide open. They snuck a receiver from the right side behind the line, Alabama didn't notice, and McCarthy could have underhand tossed the ball to him. Play Grade: C. But it couldn't have been higher.
  3. Kirk, you're right. Kirk is going to be the #1 FA QB by a mile. He's a top 10 starter in the league, and he's hitting FA for the second time. It's wild. Russ might not have a choice but to be a transitional QB. There is enough baggage around Russ, and he didn't play that well, he is not going to get a "definite starter" role. He's going to probably have to take a job to compete for playing time or be a transitional guy. Or just retire and bang Ciara and live the life of the rich. Which wouldn't be the worst possible outcome for him, to be honest. And even with his last 2 years in Denver, I still think he's probably a HOF QB. He was arguably on of the top 5 QBs in the league for a decade, and he has 2 SB appearances and one win.
  4. I have absolutely no intention of watching any more college football than I did. And I had really no intention of watching that. I watched one game. It was massively unimpressive from an NFL perspective. If he had better games, that's great. As I've said over and over, I don't care who they draft. I might be the only person on the board who doesn't even have a leaning. I don't think it's going to be McCarthy because I think what's happening is a MASSIVE publicity push, which in the end is completely irrelevant. The idiot draftniks are doing what they do. That could be wrong. Maybe he's that good. I wouldn't know. I'm not going to try and find out. Evaluating QBs is almost a fool's errand for even the best GMs. The idiot Draftniks get it wrong more than right. Even Kiper, who founded the industry, was wrong more than right. The GMs are wrong more than right. What I have become rather good at through the years is recognizing a sell job by agents and coaches. I think both Daniels and McCarthy are getting the sell job at the moment. And it's working fans into a lather. I could be wrong, but I'm not going to be even remotely surprised if the draft goes Williams, Maye, something unexpected and a QB is not #3, and then everybody is going to lose their minds.
  5. Incredibly unimpressive from an NFL standpoint. Struggled with velocity on NfL throws. Nothing in the performance remotely said “NFL QB.” I think it’s different when you don’t watch college football. Which I don’t. I didn’t see any NFl throws or concepts or anything that made me think he would be a top NFL QB. Again, I could be wrong. I haven’t watched a minute of Maye, Williams or Daniels. But to be fair I could watch the other three and think they stink too. But the one I watched, mostly by accident, was McCarthy and I was massively unimpressed.
  6. They’re not going to have a choice because they are going to need to have more than 32 players on the roster. Unless they decide to trade the #2 overall pick into the entire 6th round…
  7. Or thrown passes in the lobby? It’s massively rare to find anybody say anything bad about a prospect. It happens but very very very rarely.
  8. Archuletta didn't last 5 games before he was turned into a punt protector. I get the recency bias and emotional toll watching Gates play last year has taken. But an objective look, he's bad, but he's far from the worst.
  9. I watched one college game this season, it was the Michigan vs. Ohio State game. McCarthy went 16/20 for 171 yards. I had family over who live in Ann Arbor and are huge Michigan fans. Like, they bleed blue. Somewhere around the second quarter I turned to them and said, "McCarthy is a good college QB and is not going to make it in the pros." I might be wrong. But I watch the games with ONLY an NFL eye, because I don't watch college football. What I saw was massively unimpressive when compared to what QBs have to do on Sundays.
  10. Gates is by far the worst FA signing of the last 20 years. I don't want to go through the list. But gates probably isn't approaching the top 10. Don't forget, in the last 20 years you have 2004-2009, to include the abysmal 2006 off-season included. You'd have guys like Archuletta, Albert Haynesworth, etc. on that list. If you want to shorten to the Ron Rivera Era, I think he'd be in the top 5, but I think WJIII was the worst FA signing of that regime, for the money, blown evaluation, and total lack of production.
  11. Peters is not going to go all splashy in FA, maybe a few key positions they spend more on. But they're going to have to sign 20-30 new players in FA at some point, because currently they have 22 players from their 53 man roster under contract. They can draft 7-10. Basic 2nd grade math says that's 29-32 players. Just to fill out a roster, they're going to have to sign a lot of guys. Also, and I can't find it, but there actually is a spending floor. That was introduced in the last CBA. Teams MUST spend up to a certain limit. We're going to be WAY under that, so we're going to have to spend something in order to both get over the floor and sign enough players to play a football game. They might be, and it's going to take more than a year to fill all of them. But they have good draft capital and a ton of cap space and so few players under contract, they're in great shape to basically do whatever they want to do.
  12. The one we had was very mid. Gates was benched anyway. Leno was going through surgery, was old and expensive. They were going to have to rebuild the OL from scratch anyway. Big shrug. I wouldn't be shocked to see a move up for a LT if a starting caliber LT is available in the back half of the first round. They have the ammo to do it. Leno was possibly the best FA signing of the Ron Rivera Era. There weren't many who worked out. He started a bunch of games, was durable, and unless he was going up against one of the elite speed pass-rushers, he was ok. The big issue is he was $15m against the cap. He wasn't worth that. Thomas might be the second best FA signing during the Ron Rivera era. Lucas, McCissick and Curtis Samuel (years 2 and 3) would be the other ones who stand out as good signings. Oh, I always forget about Fuller. They re-signed him. That was good too. Ron made a lot of bad, low-end FA signings on the OL. He and his FO just never really understood the position or it's importance.
  13. Considering we have something like 22 players on the roster at the moment, I'd tend to agree with you.
  14. Your memory is not failing you. He was a dynamic QB for years, then his body gave out and he lost arm strength.
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