Mr. Sinister Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, NoCalMike said: These polls look great until election day comes and people are showing up to 5 hour wait times at their polling places. Suppressing the vote efforts are going to be far and widespread. Pretty much how I see it. I have no doubt an experienced politician like Biden (and his team) know what's at stake , and will do their part. It's up to voters to do theirs. And at least one among us constantly yapping in every other post about how people can't give up and should still act as though they're behind, acted like this was all a game 4 years ago. Yeah, I'm still gonna grind that axe. No, I don't care if they're sensitive/don't like it. Bite me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 1 hour ago, PleaseBlitz said: Not sure if you've noticed, but Trump is prone to exaggeration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShredSkins Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 2 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said: That's why it's in Oklahoma. Even if the rally ends up killing 1000+ would-be Trump voters and angers a lot more, he'll still win Oklahoma. This is funny, yet sad and true. There's already Trump supporters lining up camping outside the B.O.K. for the rally. I'll be shocked if there is no violence before Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted June 16, 2020 Author Share Posted June 16, 2020 Politico: ‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection >> By most conventional indicators, Donald Trump is in danger of becoming a one-term president. The economy is a wreck, the coronavirus persists, and his poll numbers have deteriorated. But throughout the Republican Party’s vast organization in the states, the operational approach to Trump’s re-election campaign is dening around a fundamentally different view. Interviews with more than 50 state, district and county Republican Party chairs depict a version of the electoral landscape that is no worse for Trump than six months ago — and possibly even slightly better. According to this view, the coronavirus is on its way out and the economy is coming back. Polls are unreliable, Joe Biden is too frail to last, and the media still doesn’t get it. “The more bad things happen in the country, it just solidifies support for Trump,” said Phillip Stephens, GOP chairman in Robeson County, N.C., one of several rural counties in that swing state that shifted from supporting Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. “We’re calling him ‘Teflon Trump.’ Nothing’s going to stick, because if anything, it’s getting more exciting than it was in 2016.” This year, Stephens said, “We’re thinking landslide.”<<<< Trump may well win reelection but it won't be a landslide. If there's a landslide, it will be Joe with the landslide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said: Trump may well win reelection but it won't be a landslide. If there's a landslide, it will be Joe with the landslide. If Trump wins by the margin I think he'll win by (at least 281 EV, say), he'll make some claim about how he received more electoral votes in his second presidential election than anyone since Ronald Reagan. And when people will bring up Obama and Clinton's reelection margins, the WH will say "He meant for a Republican candidate." But the rubes won't see the correction and will compare Trump to Reagan as the most awesome of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momma There Goes That Man Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, hail2skins said: If Trump wins by the margin I think he'll win by (at least 281 EV, say) you think he will win by 281 EC votes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 New polls show Trump sinking under the seismic events of the moment Two new polls dropped on Tuesday that shocked the political world. The first survey put presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden ahead of President Trump by 16 points in Michigan. The second one put Biden only 1 point behind Trump in Iowa. Given that Trump carried Iowa by 9 points in 2016, that suggests a pretty big shift away from him, as does the result out of Michigan, where Trump also prevailed by a hair. What’s striking is that both polls show Trump absolutely cratering on his handling of both the coronavirus pandemic and the protests in response to police violence. The Iowa poll is from Selzer & Co. and the Des Moines Register. It finds Trump leading Biden among likely voters by a scant 44 percent to 43 percent. And there’s this: Quote Forty-five percent of Iowans say they approve of how he has addressed COVID-19, while 53% disapprove and 6% are unsure. Just 37% approve of the way he has addressed protests surrounding race and police actions. Another 55% disapprove and 8% are unsure. Trump is underwater on the two major events of the moment in a state that was supposed to be entirely safe for him, and on one he’s deeply underwater. Given Trump’s frenzied tweeting of “LAW & ORDER,” and his campaign’s excitement about his photo op holding a Bible after the violent removal of peaceful protesters, it’s obvious that Trump and his advisers expected their framing of protests to play well for him in states like this one. Iowa, after all, is supposed to be bedrock Midwestern Trump country. It’s an overwhelmingly white state, too. J. Ann Selzer, whose firm conducts the Des Moines Register poll, tells me that among Iowa likely voters, somewhere from 82 percent to 87 percent are white. Yet the protests are playing against Trump in the state in a big way. Selzer says it would be wrong to assume that the state should be seen as a monolith. Click on the link for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Quote Forty-five percent of Iowans say they approve of how he has addressed COVID-19, while 53% disapprove and 6% are unsure 🧐 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, tshile said: 🧐 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momma There Goes That Man Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, tshile said: 🧐 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Sinister Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 You know, I never paid much attention to these "Poll results," and a result, never noticed the um, mathematical errors. Why do I feel like this is a long running troll job by some people who (rightfully) assume that we're a bunch of dumbasses that will never realize it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 7 hours ago, Momma There Goes That Man said: you think he will win by 281 EC votes? No, shouldve said if gets more than the 280 EV that Bush got in 2004. I think the vote will be similar to that election, in Trump's favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spjunkies Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 2 hours ago, hail2skins said: No, shouldve said if gets more than the 280 EV that Bush got in 2004. I think the vote will be similar to that election, in Trump's favor. You have a right to your opinion, but this is extremely doubtful, his extreme failure on two crisis situations over the past 6 months have woken up the lost Obama voters from 2016. This guy is out in January. The real "silent majority" is going to do the right thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 My biggest fear is that we will face a dishonest election. Maybe it will be Russians hacking the votes. Maybe it will be Republican oppression tactics. Maybe it will be Republicans programming voting machines not to count votes for Biden or not counting votes period. The GOP has become bolder and bolder in proclaiming it wants to cheat and plans to cheat. Hell, Trump and the GOP are willing to torpedo the US Postal Service to prevent people from being able to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Michael Bloomberg should give his billions to the Lincoln Project and just have them destroy Donnie all over the country. Never seen negative messaging this good from any Dem group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 9 hours ago, Mr. Sinister said: You know, I never paid much attention to these "Poll results," and a result, never noticed the um, mathematical errors. Why do I feel like this is a long running troll job by some people who (rightfully) assume that we're a bunch of dumbasses that will never realize it margin of error can account for non-100% totaling in polls but usually when discussing the exact % they discuss the margin of error in the same spot if you go to the actual poll write up (link in WP article) the moe is 3.8 % and they’re at 104% using rough/round numbers. So technically there’s nothing wrong with it. It was just funny (to me) way the way it was presented, usually people report the moe especially if it totals over 100 and because it’s Iowa so it has its own stereotype-related humor embedded in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted June 17, 2020 Author Share Posted June 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Burgold said: My biggest fear is that we will face a dishonest election. Maybe it will be Russians hacking the votes. Maybe it will be Republican oppression tactics. Maybe it will be Republicans programming voting machines not to count votes for Biden or not counting votes period. The GOP has become bolder and bolder in proclaiming it wants to cheat and plans to cheat. Hell, Trump and the GOP are willing to torpedo the US Postal Service to prevent people from being able to vote. Fear? I think you can bank on the GOP doing everything you mentioned. Especially, if the polling remains where it is now or gets even worse. We know the GOP only cares about getting power they don't have. Keeping the power they have. If possible, expanding the power they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Rdskns2000 said: Fear? I think you can bank on the GOP doing everything you mentioned. Especially, if the polling remains where it is now or gets even worse. We know the GOP only cares about getting power they don't have. Keeping the power they have. If possible, expanding the power they have. We also know that the GOP has become an anti-democratic institution by and large. They favor authoritarianism. It still baffles me why of all the dictators to lock their chains to they’d choose Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Who actually gets polled? I've never in my life been polled nor know anyone that has been polled. That's why I'm hesitant to buy into these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, Warhead36 said: Who actually gets polled? I've never in my life been polled nor know anyone that has been polled. That's why I'm hesitant to buy into these. I've gotten the poll call once or twice. It's supposed to be randomized. The biggest validation threat is that it may rely too much on people who still use landlines. Not sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 I personally don’t like the ads that question his physical health. I mean, walking down a ramp in a diaper with a bunch of crushed up Adderall crammed up your butt can’t be easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 2 hours ago, No Excuses said: Michael Bloomberg should give his billions to the Lincoln Project and just have them destroy Donnie all over the country. Never seen negative messaging this good from any Dem group. It's been mentioned before, but these are Bush/Reagan/Gingrich era and style Republicans and NOBODY does hit ads like they do. Brutal and effective. I liked the way that tweet a while back referred to it as "dark arts". It's been fascinating to watch. I keep expecting Willie Horton to show up. There are probably Democrats who can't enjoy the ads because they get PTSD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 I feel like Democrats overthink it, meanwhile the Lincoln Project folks do the brainstorming after 9 beers a piece. “Why wouldn’t we just straight up call Trump a [feature of the female anatomy]?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Sinister Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 1 minute ago, PleaseBlitz said: I feel like Democrats overthink it, meanwhile the Lincoln Project folks do the brainstorming after 9 beers a piece. “Why wouldn’t we just straight up call Trump a ****?” Sometimes, certain situations call for "That was bad, and you should feel bad" and other situations call for (figuratively of course) taking a poo riddled rusty hatchet right to someone's dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mooka Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 The polls are fine/accurate. (or were at least) Hillary Clinton finished with almost 3 million more votes then Trump in 2016. The problem is just a microcosm of the bigger problems overall in this country. The poll, the actual question asked, and the results don't matter. How its marketed or presented, whom is presenting the information and to whom is what matters. So any poll presented to a right-wing audience is simply saying, "I am smarter than you and Joe Biden is going to win like I said Hillary Clinton was going to win in 2016." Vice versa, polls to a left audience are simply saying, "That giant orange dildo can lick my ballsacks." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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