PleaseBlitz Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/trump-poised-face-final-indignity Quote When an incumbent falls well behind in a reelection campaign, it is not uncommon for him to suffer through all kinds of indignities. When that incumbent has not played well with the other kids, those indignities can be greatly magnified, as President Trump is experiencing now. This year is the United States’ turn to host the G-7 summit. On account of terrible optics, Trump had to shift the prestigious meeting from his first choice, his Doral resort outside Miami, to Camp David. With the meeting scheduled for a month before our general election, German Chancellor Angela Merkel basically told Trump to pound sand. She was disinclined to serve as a prop for a photo op and likely end up in a Trump campaign ad, a feeling that seemed to be shared by more than a few of the other group members. Then, after floating a trial balloon of expanding from a G-7 to a G-11 meeting by adding Australia, India, Russia, and South Korea to the mix, the whole event has been scuttled. On top of that embarrassment came a Jonathan Martin piece in The New York Times on Sunday, which forecasted that a bevy of prominent Republicans were planning to withhold their support for Trump, some intending to cross over and support Joe Biden. Among them, perhaps: the only living former Republican president, George W. Bush. You know what they say about payback. Finally, among the major national polls, the only disparity in their conclusions is the size of Biden’s lead over Trump. In live telephone-interview polls conducted over the past three weeks, Biden was ahead by 7 points in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll; 8 points in Fox News; 9 points according to ABC News/Washington Post; 11 points in PBS/NPR Marist College, Monmouth University, and Quinnipiac University surveys; and 14 points in the CNN poll released Monday morning. Average them together and you have a Biden lead of 10 points. According to the RealClearPolitics average, which includes an array of online and robo (IVR) polls as well, it’s an 8-point edge. Even allowing for the fact that Democrats need to win the national popular vote by at least 3 or 4 percentage points to guarantee an Electoral College win, that’s fairly impressive. Also keep in mind the cascading effect; that is, after the spread gets past a few points nationally, a candidate tends to win a lot of states by narrow margins, inflating the electoral vote to a bigger win than the popular vote. In the RealClearPolitics average of state polling, Trump is behind by 3 points or more in five of the six top battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while he’s up only up by three-tenths of a percentage point in North Carolina. Putting North Carolina in Trump’s column but the other states in Biden’s would translate into a 318-220 Electoral College edge for the former vice president, well past the 270 needed to win. More @ link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan T. Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 1 hour ago, mistertim said: I'm really trying to figure out what message they're trying to send and to whom. Are they telling Republicans not to vote by mail? Are they trying to somehow trick Non-Republicans into not voting by mail? Do they just really love fire and need an excuse for one? The message I get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/biden-vice-president-harris-warren_n_5ee3e19ac5b684a0c4f2e5d8 Susan Rice would be a terrible choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/biden-vice-president-harris-warren_n_5ee3e19ac5b684a0c4f2e5d8 Susan Rice would be a terrible choice. I don't get why Rice is included. She likely has more negatives than positives. I mean she's probably more well-known politically from Benghazi nonsense than from most of her work at the UN or as NSA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, visionary said: I don't get why Rice is included. She likely has more negatives than positives. I mean she's probably more well-known politically from Benghazi nonsense than from most of her work at the UN or as NSA. Exactly. The only thing she brings is foreign policy experience, which is the one thing Biden doesn't need to add. Whole the Benghazi "scandal" is pure nonsense, just allowing it to be a rallying cry against him is 100 times the negative that adding her experience would be a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 This is sort of unrelated, but every time I hear Stacey Abrams on pod save america or other places, she always sounds so knowledgeable and aware of things. I wonder if she is too inexperienced to be on the ticket, if she couldn't get a role in policy making or some advisor position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 Tulsa's BOK Center, where Trump's Triumph of the Shills rally is scheduled, has 19,199 seats. Hey, he said he sold that many tickets. He didn't say they were going to get in. (Heck, he probably sold 100,000 to Russian bots.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spjunkies Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 I have to admit that I'm shocked they moved it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 He’s gonna get the Covid eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hersh Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 24 minutes ago, spjunkies said: I have to admit that I'm shocked they moved it. They are scared to death of their internal polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 2 hours ago, spjunkies said: I have to admit that I'm shocked they moved it. I wonder if he just lost his base. First move he made against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted June 13, 2020 Author Share Posted June 13, 2020 Stacy Abrams wants to be President by 2040. I think she said she isn’t even being vetted. Biden will give her some role, probably expanding voting to fight voter suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildbunny Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 3 hours ago, spjunkies said: I have to admit that I'm shocked they moved it. Yeah like he didn't know about June 19th and they made a mistake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 11 hours ago, Hersh said: They are scared to death of their internal polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 11 hours ago, Hersh said: They are scared to death of their internal polls. It's feeling like only a matter of time until his campaign admits they can't win this election with his base alone. Any attempt to expand that base will backfire and shrink what's left of it. He was bound to start running out of friends eventually they he treated his actual friends. I want more clips of what he actually thinks of his base, I believe he thinks their idiots easy to manipulate. I don't know what it will take to get his base to finally see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spjunkies Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Renegade7 said: It's feeling like only a matter of time until his campaign admits they can't win this election with his base alone. Any attempt to expand that base will backfire and shrink what's left of it. He was bound to start running out of friends eventually they he treated his actual friends. I want more clips of what he actually thinks of his base, I believe he thinks their idiots easy to manipulate. I don't know what it will takento get his base to finally see that. His brand of BS is already making networks that are friendly to him toxic for advertisers. Fox is starting to feel the sting now, love to see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 Ohio, PA, Minn.... Rust belt. For all the talk of Georgia and Texas. Don't take money or resources to go for longshots. Need to focus and act like they are down, not up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 that yuge ugly slice of the right-sider demographic in tx is holding on at all costs to their terminal ugliness and will do so to their ending anyone who ever liked ted cruz in the slightest manner (memories?) was a precursor in terms of garbage-brain activity to the election of such a vile ignorant repulsive creature like trump...none of the opponents he faced all along the way, and up to the end, justify him as a choice even cruz is better and while cruz, tragically, is not "as low as you can go" in the gop, he's sure way way low enough and yet trump is even way way lower...it challenges the ability of the mind to grasp the scope of awful at play the magical-thinking, arrogant ignorance, crippled judgment, and absence of rational analysis in that kind of cognitive process stands way above the politics of left and right to me when i see the critiques of biden ramping up at times among segments of the left, and i see those eye-rolling moments of his too, i think that in our context none of the biden gaffes/misspeaks matter one wit, if they really ever did, compared to the routine mass of multiple forms of garbage (that i usually describe by listing them) as has been made by the gop for decades go joe...no matter how less than ideal you may be to many, to trump or any of the gop leaders, you are a fine representative of all that is better than them...i will work as hard for joe as i would if any of my lifelong personal heroes were running, and he isn't my ideal choice either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 @Jumbo I agree with you that some folks are going to go down swinging on this one, including Trump. Same time ive seen enough boxing matches where that doesn't change the final score. My mother told me her grandfather confessed to eventually regretting essentially cutting her off for having children with a black man on his deathbed to her. I was too little to remember that, and that was his death bed, not Trump's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 12th Commandment Posted June 13, 2020 Share Posted June 13, 2020 How funny would it be if Trump sees the polls closer to the election and decides to just sit it out. Put up his hands and walk away. He doesn't care one wit for the racists and other people depending on him to win. He gets to claim he could have done it had he stayed in, of course, and gets to avoid the humiliation of a defeat so clear that claims of cheating are silenced. Could happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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