Welcome New Owner Josh Harris

[Koolblue13]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Howell is the obvious wildcard.

 

Look if they internally think Howell is just OK as far as his ceiling goes and love one of these QBs, cool then go for it.

 

But personally, I think if they go QB in this draft it won't be fishing in the Caleb-Drake pond.  I just think the odds are so much greater that the team picking there will take those QBs then trade those picks away.  So we'd likely be fishing in that next pool:  Nix. Penix, Daniels, McCarthy.   

 

If they bet on Howell, it would be silly to go long rebuild.  Part of the charm for a cheap QB is to use that window to win ala the Eagles.   

Trading out of the first for a first next year and another day two pick this year would be great.

[Die Hard]

11 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Trading out of the first for a first next year and another day two pick this year would be great.

Given where the team is currently in the standings, at or near top 10…. a trade down would involve getting another late first this year as well as a first rounder next year.

[Warhead36]

I'd love to trade down and acquire future 1sts, but teams don't usually give up future 1sts unless its for a stud QB prospect. And if there is one available, it might be too hard to pass up on, unless Howell is just amazing the 2nd half of the season.

[Stihl89]

43 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Don't get the vibe at all, not a whit, listening to narratives about a massive deconstruction.   Keim has nailed almost everything and seems to have a pipeline to this ownership altough he hasn't really globally explained what he thinks will happen yet.  Just bits and pieces now.    And the new FO clearly will be a wildcard and impossible to predict yet.

 

Feels at least the current thinking is to keep most of the remaining roster intact.  They could have traded more guys leading to the trading deadline but didn't want to do it.

 

It feels like trade down, draft like 10 players.  Go to town in FA.  And compete in 2024.    

 

I get the sense the implications are that #1, they think they can pull it off.   #2 some concerns that the fans can endure a 3-4 year rebuild -- let alone teams have rebuilt in 1-2 years so why not think bigger.  We got two narraitves now, one from a national reporter, the other from Keim to expect them to be aggressive to give fans some hope this off season.  Russini mentioned it in the context of FA.  Keim said it globally.  None of that feels like a tear down to me.

 

Also, I know you aren't a Howell guy.  But from what I've heard from beat guys, ownership digs him.  Granted it can go sideways still but if it keeps on this trajectory, I don't think they are trading the moon for a QB.  But that can change I gather if Howell struggles and or their pick ends up really high.

 

 I have heard enough from Shen that the last thing he'd want to do is trading a lot of draft picks away from the start to trade up in theory at least.   Granted whomever the new FO person is might have their own ideas.  Will see.  But right now I don't get the vibe at all that they are about to tear down this roster.  Feels like they will take it up 2-3 notches that some (me, @Koolblue13 talked about a lot last off season, that the ramping up was coming in 2023).  Ron did the opposite in 2023, he brought it down a notch or two if anything which surprised some of us, me included.  Let alone the little he did sucked. And hence we got this season so far.

 

I've listened to more about both trades including now Logan Paulsen.  The issue with Sweat they felt was he'd command 25 million, and they didn't think he was a 25 million dollar player so if they got good trade value, they'd trade him if not they'd have held on and hoped for the best in FA.  As for Chase, this coaching staff wanted him gone.  They'd have probably taken a 5th round pick if that's all they were offered.

 

Their ideas were to refuse trades for their other players, I gather Fuller, J. Allen, Brissett.    Trade Chase Young.   Keep Montez Sweat unless they were blown away by an offer.  Extend Curl if they can.

 

In short, their game plan was to trade Chase.  Not trade anyone else aside from if they were blown away by an offer for Brissett but that wasn't going to happen.  Keep everyone else.  But consider trading Sweat but only if they were blown away by an offer.  Otherwise risk it with Sweat and try to work out a deal.

 

 

 

 

Just from little snippets we have heard and based on prior year interactions, I think the trades we did aren’t necessarily implicated towards what we’re doing in the off-season. We have known that Ron previously had issues with both Tez and Chase. They had zero talks about trading anyone else. Feels like a placate to Josh from Ron of “see I can collect assets for the future”. We have seen reports that Ron is still competing for the 7th seed. Not surprising but I have a hard time correlating our moves to what our possible path is going to be next year. 
 

I think it’s certainly possible they consider a quick retool of around Sam. Just don’t think what we did this week is any indication that is the plan. If Josh is the analytical mind we think and he gets analytical guys in place I think that’s even more of an argument against the Sam centered rebuild as analytically he’s middling at best to bottom 3rd of the league across many different different data sheets. I think if Ron wasn’t here and we had some one else running the show a lot more players would have been moved. 
 

I lean towards a complete rebuild because our foundation here just isn’t very good from an analytical standpoint. But there’s nothing concrete in any direction to our future plans 

[Est.1974]

The Belichick talk would be an awful outcome. I know it’s been debunked but I wouldn’t necessarily discount it totally, unfortunately.

 

I really hope Harris and the ownership group build a front office and coaching structure built for the long term. Sustainability and forward thinking. Consider hires with succession planning in mind. Hire people with scope to develop and grown within the organisation.
 

It’s amazing how organisations, I’ll include soccer teams in the UK too, have great era’s with great leaders, then simply fall off the cliff for years when those individuals move on.

 

Develop the best, then keep them.

 

For example, Ben Johnson is being touted as the next great thing. He’s nailed on to be a HC. I wonder how many people in the Lions organisation think he’s got more potential than their current HC Dan Campbell. If you had to chose between the two, who would you pick ? I think the Lions should make Johnson HC next season. On balance that could be the best long term move for them. Be brave. Be ruthless. Develop the best, keep them.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, Stihl89 said:

Just from little snippets we have heard and based on prior year interactions, I think the trades we did aren’t necessarily implicated towards what we’re doing in the off-season. We have known that Ron previously had issues with both Tez and Chase. They had zero talks about trading anyone else. Feels like a placate to Josh from Ron of “see I can collect assets for the future”. We have seen reports that Ron is still competing for the 7th seed. Not surprising but I have a hard time correlating our moves to what our possible path is going to be next year. 
 

I think it’s certainly possible they consider a quick retool of around Sam. Just don’t think what we did this week is any indication that is the plan. If Josh is the analytical mind we think and he gets analytical guys in place I think that’s even more of an argument against the Sam centered rebuild as analytically he’s middling at best to bottom 3rd of the league across many different different data sheets. I think if Ron wasn’t here and we had some one else running the show a lot more players would have been moved. 
 

I lean towards a complete rebuild because our foundation here just isn’t very good from an analytical standpoint. But there’s nothing concrete in any direction to our future plans 

 

Impossible to know.  But judging by snippets, I'd say 5% or so chance of a complete tear down.   I've heard several beat guys say the people in that building including the owner are high right now on Howell.  If Howell plays the rest of the season somewhat like last Sunday, I doubt the people in the building say lets move on and trade the farm to trade up.

 

Now if they end up with a top 2 pick, I say 100% they go QB.  For the same reason I don't think they will be shopping in the Drake-Caleb supermarket.  That is, teams who can land QB prospects that are big time ballyhooed, don't trade the picks away.   When Cincy was slated to take Burrow, we kept hearing for example teams offering trades but Cincy wasn't trading away a dude that has a very high chance of being a franchise guy.

 

But I don't think they draft top two.  So that means shopping in the next QB aisle.  So for example if the new GM is in love with McCarthy or Penix or whomever, they could take them.  I doubt though they trade up.  I was just listening to Shen talk about the value of trading down and amassing picks.  It was the same argument the PFF guys made that this team should trade down the year we took Chase Young.    

 

Also reload and tear down can mean the same thing depending on how you define it.  I think the better word for it is an aggressive reboot.  If you bring in 10 new players from the draft with 5 of them coming from the top 3 rounds and you sign 3-4 FAs -- and at least the vibe I get from Russini-Keim is a FA or two might be marquee -- its going to be a very different roster.

 

And I get the sense that Harris gets this is apples to oranges inheriting this team than others.  He has a fan base that has checked out.  He needs a new stadium and winning helps that sell.   I don't get the sense and granted its just based on small tidbits that I am extrapolating about - that they want to test the fan base as for going through a few years of serious losing.

 

The best time to make trades was just now.  We talked about it a ton in the Trent thread back when they could have traded him during the trade deadline versus the off season when teams weren't desperate and were competing against FA and the draft. 

 

Kendall Fuller for example could have been traded apparently before the trade deadline.  They aren't trading him in the off season with FA pending.  The time to do it was then.  Diitto Brissett, etc. 

[skinsfan66]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Eagles have 2 future first ballet HoFers on their line and they aren't even the best player on it. It's wild. Mailata is the highest ranked OL in the league.

That 2nd rounder we just got from the Bears in in the money spot for a Center.

Center and top of 2nd round just perfect in my mind, good spot for a TE, RT if the player is there. Best player of need.

[Koolblue13]

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Eagles have 2 future first ballet HoFers on their line and they aren't even the best player on it. It's wild. Mailata is the highest ranked OL in the league.

That 2nd rounder we just got from the Bears in in the money spot for a Center.

 

Also one of my favs in that draft

 

 

 

[Chris 44]

Not sure how good Steen is from those clips but I do know that Hurts got the ball out quick, but it  was also some weak ass pass rush.

[BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen]

21 hours ago, BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen said:

Kinda off-topic, but they were talking on 106.7 yesterday afternoon about the "Bruce Allen Tapes." Basically, someone would come into Allen's office, and Allen would pause the tape he was watching to talk to them. The person would leave the office and touch base with subsequent office visitors, who would all verify that Allen's tape was always paused on the same scene when they came in, with Bruce making a big show of "lemme pause this, just watchin' some tape" and trying to make it look like he was actually watching tape when he wasn't.

 

That certainly explains a lot of the personnel decisions this team made under Allen. 😜

 

I forgot to add to my original post...the guys on the radio were comparing it to the Anchorman 'guns' scene, except in this case Bruce Allen was saying "look at all this tape I'm watching." It was so funny I almost wrecked my car.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

5 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I'd love to trade down and acquire future 1sts, but teams don't usually give up future 1sts unless its for a stud QB prospect. And if there is one available, it might be too hard to pass up on, unless Howell is just amazing the 2nd half of the season.

I wouldn't, and here's why:

 

We need blue chip players, not good players.  The most likely place to find them is at the top of the first.  You CAN find them elsewhere in the draft.  But the odds diminish with every pick.

 

I get the analytics say "more picks is better than higher picks." But I wouldn't want to trade from 8-10 to 25-32.  The level of prospect you are getting drops dramatically.  

[Veretax]

14 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I wouldn't, and here's why:

 

We need blue chip players, not good players.  The most likely place to find them is at the top of the first.  You CAN find them elsewhere in the draft.  But the odds diminish with every pick.

 

I get the analytics say "more picks is better than higher picks." But I wouldn't want to trade from 8-10 to 25-32.  The level of prospect you are getting drops dramatically.  

 

I actually think we need both types.  The problem is noone can afford a team of legitimate and long term 1st round picks.  there are too many slots to fill.  The issue is, and has been for us, that we spent way too much talent on the DLine thinking it would be a different way to back into a championship.  It hasn't worked though. which is why young and sweat moving on is a oh well for most of us.

There are positions where teams frequently get by on good enough talent, often middle linebacker is one of those positions, sometims one of the 4-3 DT starters is that.  Guards and centers are not always top tier compared to tackles etc.  You might have one stud WR and Tight end, the rest are just guys and so on.  

THe issue we have had for a long time?

O Line play almost across the board, we might have 2 guys that are worth keeping in my estimation after this season that were starters.  Tight end? If Logan is a cap casualty we got nada.   WR we have at least 2 with Terry and Dotson.  RB We will trim by elimination to make room and so on.  see how that works?   I think there was someone a while ago I can't remember if it was BLC, but the idea was about eveyr 7 years a good chunk of the roster turns over.  You need to identity really good talent worth paying to keep so the ones you give big pay days too remain impactful in their second contract, and maybe third.    You may not be able to keep them all so you also need some servicable stop gap replacements, preferably in house or on the down swing of their pay and careers.  Our problem is we tend to over rank our own top tier FA and Draft picks and our scouting and picking have not been up to par with other teams.  If we improve this by even half, we can be in the playoff race perenially with a lot less headaches, frankly.

This is one reason I like the idea of analytics approach of Harris and Co.   Its not that analytics are the bomb, but it at least provides a reference to inspect and adapt.  They will make mistakes, every team does, hell look at Dallas, they thought they had the best OL and D in the conference.  But they have looked absolutely crappy at times when they don't get the breaks.  Great teams overcome adversity.  We are not even close to where Dallas has been, frankly.

 

[BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen]

The window to win in the NFL is pretty small, that's why accumulating #1 picks doesn't work...by the time you have enough of them you have to start getting rid of the first ones you got due to free agency. Agree that too much focus was put on D line...makes me sad to think instead of Chase we could have had Herbert at QB.

[Koolblue13]

12 minutes ago, BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen said:

The window to win in the NFL is pretty small, that's why accumulating #1 picks doesn't work...by the time you have enough of them you have to start getting rid of the first ones you got due to free agency. Agree that too much focus was put on D line...makes me sad to think instead of Chase we could have had Herbert at QB.

Worked for the Eagles and Dolphins pretty well.

[skinny21]

23 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I wouldn't, and here's why:

 

We need blue chip players, not good players.  The most likely place to find them is at the top of the first.  You CAN find them elsewhere in the draft.  But the odds diminish with every pick.

 

I get the analytics say "more picks is better than higher picks." But I wouldn't want to trade from 8-10 to 25-32.  The level of prospect you are getting drops dramatically.  

There’s an argument that blue chip LBs, Cs and TEs (maybe guard too) are more likely to be found in that later range.  For us though, with our need at tackle, it would be a tough sell to move back…

[Stihl89]

I think if its not QB if were drafting top 10 you need to ensure that you have assets in 25 to make a move for QB. That means a trade down 

[Voice_of_Reason]

5 hours ago, Stihl89 said:

I think if its not QB if were drafting top 10 you need to ensure that you have assets in 25 to make a move for QB. That means a trade down 

It’s too early to make any determination on QB in this draft or the next.  
 

Luckily, we have 9 more games to evaluate.  
 

And also luckily, Howell will be on the roster next year no matter what.  So that’s the floor.  

[Thinking Skins]

13 hours ago, Veretax said:

 

I actually think we need both types.  The problem is noone can afford a team of legitimate and long term 1st round picks.  there are too many slots to fill.  The issue is, and has been for us, that we spent way too much talent on the DLine thinking it would be a different way to back into a championship.  It hasn't worked though. which is why young and sweat moving on is a oh well for most of us.

There are positions where teams frequently get by on good enough talent, often middle linebacker is one of those positions, sometims one of the 4-3 DT starters is that.  Guards and centers are not always top tier compared to tackles etc.  You might have one stud WR and Tight end, the rest are just guys and so on.  

THe issue we have had for a long time?

O Line play almost across the board, we might have 2 guys that are worth keeping in my estimation after this season that were starters.  Tight end? If Logan is a cap casualty we got nada.   WR we have at least 2 with Terry and Dotson.  RB We will trim by elimination to make room and so on.  see how that works?   I think there was someone a while ago I can't remember if it was BLC, but the idea was about eveyr 7 years a good chunk of the roster turns over.  You need to identity really good talent worth paying to keep so the ones you give big pay days too remain impactful in their second contract, and maybe third.    You may not be able to keep them all so you also need some servicable stop gap replacements, preferably in house or on the down swing of their pay and careers.  Our problem is we tend to over rank our own top tier FA and Draft picks and our scouting and picking have not been up to par with other teams.  If we improve this by even half, we can be in the playoff race perenially with a lot less headaches, frankly.

This is one reason I like the idea of analytics approach of Harris and Co.   Its not that analytics are the bomb, but it at least provides a reference to inspect and adapt.  They will make mistakes, every team does, hell look at Dallas, they thought they had the best OL and D in the conference.  But they have looked absolutely crappy at times when they don't get the breaks.  Great teams overcome adversity.  We are not even close to where Dallas has been, frankly.

 

Yep 

 

G

C

S

TE

MLB

DT

 

These were all undervalued

 

But recent franchise tags have bright those values up some. 

[ixcuincle]

There was a good podcast I was listening to today about the first 100 days under Josh Harris.

 

 

You can already see the impact he is making on gameday with improved traffic, and a luxury tent for family that the players asked for (that is why Lot B is closed down, you used to be able to walk around the stadium). The players also asked for more things like ice baths which Josh provided. Just little things that help improve the experience.

 

The new ownership only took place a few days before training camp so it'll be interesting to see what they can do with a full offseason, but already things are looking up. Would recommend a listen if you want to know about the business side and what they're doing to improve the game day and business experience.

 

 

[BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen]

8 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Worked for the Eagles and Dolphins pretty well.

Yes because they have competent people with a strategy, which we may finally have here. Rivera clearly didn't have any kind of strategy as indicated by the fact that Shen has to explain to him that it's better to have four 2's than two 1's.

[Riggo#44]

Media does not criticize John Mara enough.

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

On 11/4/2023 at 1:31 PM, BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen said:

The window to win in the NFL is pretty small, that's why accumulating #1 picks doesn't work...by the time you have enough of them you have to start getting rid of the first ones you got due to free agency. Agree that too much focus was put on D line...makes me sad to think instead of Chase we could have had Herbert at QB.

That's basically nonsense. Don't have stud players on cheap deals, because 5 years from now they are going to be good enough to demand a lot of money. Silly. 

 

"Accumulating 1st round picks" isn't done because teams rarely trade them away. 

[PlayAction]

On 11/3/2023 at 9:12 AM, Die Hard said:

Given where the team is currently in the standings, at or near top 10…. a trade down would involve getting another late first this year as well as a first rounder next year.

How things change!  We are currently at #15.  While I'd like a top ten draft pick, I'd rather Howell continue to get better and score more points. Where we pick is less important than whom we pick.  

[Inigo Montoya]

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