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The Official 2023 ES Free Agency Thread... available until Free Agency 2024 begins


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Just now, MartinC said:

 

 He was a nice pickup. Allen and Payne with Mathis and Ridgeway as depth is a very good DT group.

You know my stance on the Payne signing. Not happy about it but again I hope he proves me wrong BIG time and earns it.  :) 

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3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Having said that that my default fallback is Keim.  And thinking about Keim's podcasts he kept saying they want Payne back on a LTC, he seemed to think the franchise is more likely but he wasn't ruliing out a LTC.  He also didn't think they'd go for a big FA signing but would sign some mid tier FAs.  I am looking forward to his next podcast to see if he heard anything changed. 

I would also be shocked if we went on a spending spree especially with Ron using the word "budget" so many times which makes me think there is a bit more to this escrow rule, something that limits teams from exploiting it. 

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4 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

 He was a nice pickup. Allen and Payne with Mathis and Ridgeway as depth is a very good DT group.

Those 4 could be potentially one of the best (if not THE) best rotation in the league. Mathis of course based upon potential and Ridgeway based upon WWF cage match moves. 

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17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Who was saying they wouldn't franchise him?    Definitely there was skepticism they'd reach a long term deal while the ownership was being transferred -- or hopefully transferred even though Rivera kept saying they were on it. 

There were many questions wether we would do it, given it would tie up our cap and have other financial implications. That was my general point, many people stress too much on the cap, the players salaries and how the team is affected imo. No biggie. 

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26 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 He was a nice pickup. Allen and Payne with Mathis and Ridgeway as depth is a very good DT group.

 

It prevents captain insane-o from seeing the field too much which would have likely been entertaining but is honestly a good thing.

 

The strength of our team will continue to be the strength of the team. That's a good thing.

 

 

For the investment,  two 1s and a 2 for a DT group, they better be the best beer I've ever had... but so far.

 

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Edited by FootballZombie
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9 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

I would also be shocked if we went on a spending spree especially with Ron using the word "budget" so many times which makes me think there is a bit more to this escrow rule, something that limits teams from exploiting it. 


I’ve taken the “budget” in free agency as needing to take care of their own. He has preached wanting to build the roster through the draft and remain Young overall . One of his biggest regrets in Carolina was letting the roster get old and overpriced with veterans. 
 

Mcclaurin last season and Payne this season equals big free agency splash. As long as they are near the max in terms of cap each season I’m not alarmed. 

Edited by wit33
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24 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

I would also be shocked if we went on a spending spree especially with Ron using the word "budget" so many times which makes me think there is a bit more to this escrow rule, something that limits teams from exploiting it. 

 

Rule of thumb is take Ron at his word. :ols:  He said over and over again his priority is to get a LTC with Payne. 

 

Unfortunately we don't have much rhetoric from him on FA, except for one thing -- he said he wants to address needs to help free up the draft.  If so then I'd expect at least one O lineman signing, probably LB,  maybe safety?

 

Shanny was always cagey and tried to throw people off.  Rivera seems the opposite extreme -- trust what he says. 

 

14 minutes ago, wit33 said:


I’ve taken the “budget” in free agency as needing to take care of their own. He has preached wanting to build the roster through the draft and remain Young overall . One of his biggest regrets in Carolina was letting the roster get old and overpriced with veterans. 
 

Mcclaurin last season and Payne this season equals big free agency splash. As long as they are near the max in terms of cap each season I’m not alarmed. 

 

Taking care of their own is definitely something Rivera has preached.

 

I'd still be surprised if he ultimately brings backs both Chase and Sweat when their contracts run out.   

 

I've heard him say again and again about wanting to have the two DTs, saying that was the strength of Carolina's defense but they let that go and he regretted it.  I haven't heard him push keeping the edge rushers yet -- at least not yet.  but if he does push it ultimately i'll take him seriously.  Rivera doesn't BS.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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18 minutes ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

There were many questions wether we would do it, given it would tie up our cap and have other financial implications. That was my general point, many people stress too much on the cap, the players salaries and how the team is affected imo. No biggie. 

 

OK at least on this thread, most predicted the tag, LTC wasn't predicted though, even though Rivera constantly talked about trying to get it done. 

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46 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

Those 4 could be potentially one of the best (if not THE) best rotation in the league. Mathis of course based upon potential and Ridgeway based upon WWF cage match moves. 

To your point, I hope Ridgeway can learn a lot from being a part of this group of 1st round picks....he definitely has the nasty bone in him. 

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Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

If Florio is right, and Payne’s hit is $10m now for 2023, we still have nowhere near the $$ to go after Lamar. What, now we have $26m in space? Enough to be active. Doubt it’s enough to  pay Lamar

 

Ehhh...

Not to say its happening or even rational but Lamar's year 1 cap hit will not be 40 Mil. You can sign him to a contract w/ a y-1 hit under 26.

 

Its more of a do you have the cash problem then a cap problem. We have the cap space and have several pathways to make much more.

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15 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

If Florio is right, and Payne’s hit is $10m now for 2023, we still have nowhere near the $$ to go after Lamar. What, now we have $26m in space? Enough to be active. Doubt it’s enough to  pay Lamar


Nothing is certain in life except death (I’m fun at parties). But us not going after Lamar Jackson is close behind that.

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12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Keim podcast tonight 

 

Said they wanted to get the Payne deal pre FA. So they can chase some guys right away in FA. 
 

Doesn’t know names they will chase but heard they’d be in the 5-8 million range maybe a tad higher.

Sounds like a couple fat boys in the offensive side

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1 hour ago, MartinC said:

 

 Allen and Payne need rest plus injures happen. As Mathis discovered.

Also, they didn’t like Settle or Matt I. So they needed a 3rd/4th guy who also a stud against the run….

43 minutes ago, MartinC said:


Nothing is certain in life except death (I’m fun at parties). But us not going after Lamar Jackson is close behind that.

And taxes.  As certain as death. 

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47 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

If Florio is right, and Payne’s hit is $10m now for 2023, we still have nowhere near the $$ to go after Lamar. What, now we have $26m in space? Enough to be active. Doubt it’s enough to pay Lamar

  Baltimore is smart for letting him go but we are dumb for not signing him per media?  No more Lamar talk please.

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Keim in is podcast talked to Fortier and they both agreed Wylie could be on their radar.  And Keim did mention Hernandez in an article, he didn't see they'd chase him for sure but Keim rarely name drops for no reason.

 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/35816499/2023-nfl-free-agency-overrated-underrated-players-every-position-including-teddy-bridgewater-jakobi-meyers-yannick-ngakoue

 

Offensive Tackle

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Overrated: Kaleb McGary

2022 team: Falcons | Age entering 2023 season: 28

There's no way I'm paying up for a tackle whose weakness is pass protection. McGary's 85% pass block win rate ranked 47th out of 64 qualifying tackles this year, and that was the best number of his career. There's disagreement about his run blocking -- PFF graded him as one of the best run-blocking tackles, while his run block win rate (68%) was one of the worst. But even if it is a strength, pass protection is a tackle's more important function and shouldn't be sacrificed in a player who costs real money in free agency.

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Underrated: Andrew Wylie

2022 team: Chiefs | Age entering 2023 season: 29

There are quite a few players we could put in this spot: Cameron Fleming, Jermaine Eluemunor and Kelvin Beachum all are mediocre pass protectors who shouldn't cost too much. I think Wylie's reputation takes a hit from Patrick Mahomes holding the ball longer than average and inviting some pressure (knowing he can almost always avoid a sack). Pass block win rate, which simply measures if an offensive lineman sustains his block for 2.5 seconds, is a fan. Wylie ranked ninth in the metric last year, though it's worth noting he was playing next to an elite interior offensive line. Still, Wylie can get the job done and should be available for cheap.


 

Interior Offensive Line

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Overrated: Connor McGovern

2022 team: Jets | Age entering 2023 season: 30

Over the past four seasons playing center for the Broncos and Jets, McGovern has ranked as above average in pass block win rate and run block win rate just once -- both came in 2021, when he was 11th and 10th in the two categories, respectively. Last season he settled back in as a below-average-at-best center, ranking 24th and 30th in the two metrics. The Jets, who will be looking to upgrade their offensive line this offseason, should look elsewhere when it comes to the center position.

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Underrated: Will Hernandez

2022 team: Cardinals | Age entering 2023 season: 27

The Cardinals signed Hernandez to a cheap, one-year deal this time last year, and he promptly put up the best pass block win rate numbers of his career. His 95% PBWR at guard ranked seventh at the position and came with average double-team help. His run-blocking numbers were solid, too. He wasn't as good in past seasons, so there's a chance 2022 was a one-year blip, but he should be quite affordable for someone who was as good in pass protection as he was last year.

 

Underrated: T.J. Edwards

2022 team: Eagles | Age entering 2023 season: 27

Every number suggests strong play from Edwards in 2022. His 0.6 yards per coverage snap allowed was eighth lowest among linebackers with at least 250 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. His 40% run stop win rate ranked seventh among players at the position. And his 38% pass rush win rate was very good in a tiny sample, too. He had the benefit of great teammates around him, which might have been a factor, but Edwards showed serious ability last year according to the stats.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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I’m on an island here.  I’m just not thrilled with locking up that kind of money at DT.  Beyond that, how long until Jon Allen wants to renegotiate?  What if Chase plays up to his potential, how do we keep him?

 

I realize those are what-ifs, and I also really like Payne - it just seems like a lot of money to lock up at the position.  They have to absolutely dominate every snap to justify the expense.

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