The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Burgold]

19 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

What's so interesting to me about the Watson scenario is we are 1 year into this and literally nothing has changed. I can't imagine he goes into next season as a Texan, but I am also not really sure what can happen between now and the draft to expedite the situation so that a team would be comfortable enough to trade for him. Post-draft, the number of teams in play for him likely diminishes significantly ... which won't help his trade value. Such a bizarre situation and I feel like this should have been ironed out long ago, yet we are still in the same position we sat a year ago.

You'd think his trade value should drop off a cliff. I mean it's pretty clear that he's done in Houston and they're paying him (are they paying him) for nothing. Plus, a year of rust matters. 

 

I don't know how I feel about Watson. Seems like there's too much smoke for it to get cleared up cleanly. Washington being involved in the same sort of stink probably makes him the worst fit in terms of storyline. I mean how does Washington say with a straight face that the past is the past and that they are changing their culture and trade a mountain for Watson after all their harassment issues?

 

For that reason, I'm not sure Watson should come to DC even if we could get him cheap.

[Zim489]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pittsburgh move up in the draft and target Malik Willis. Tomlin mentioned that he covets mobility in a QB the other day, Willis is that. He is actually a perfect fit for the Pittsburgh “way”. A team that likes to pin their identity on their running game and defense but still move the ball through the air when needed. 
 

Willis would get plenty of time to develop there as well and he has a cast surrounding him that makes sense. Workhorse back, receiving talent… they need to get the OL sorted but Willis’ mobility helps there and a mediocre OL buys Willis more time to develop. 
 

Pitt isn't known for moving up in the draft or trading future draft choices, but I think this is the chance. If I were a Steeler fan he’d be among my favorite prospects.

 

But I’m not. And Howell is still my top guy.

I could def envision them tanking this year. They should have a lot of well being built up with 18 years of good to greatness with 2 SBs. Get some contracts front loaded. Get some bad contracts out. Be prepped for 2023 

[Spaceman Spiff]

3 minutes ago, Burgold said:

You'd think his trade value should drop off a cliff. I mean it's pretty clear that he's done in Houston and they're paying him (are they paying him) for nothing. Plus, a year of rust matters. 

 

I don't know how I feel about Watson. Seems like there's too much smoke for it to get cleared up cleanly. Washington being involved in the same sort of stink probably makes him the worst fit in terms of storyline. I mean how does Washington say with a straight face that the past is the past and that they are changing their culture and trade a mountain for Watson after all their harassment issues?

 

For that reason, I'm not sure Watson should come to DC even if we could get him cheap.

 

I'd almost respect it if the WFT/Commies/Bedwetters said. "**** it, we're tired of pretending and we are who we are.  This guy has done some sketchy **** at the very least but he's great and we want to win."

 

ALMOST respect it.  Almost.  IMO, this is a league where franchises/teams are faking what good people they are.  If they could get away with it, they'd be the XFL, or some Vince McMahon creation.

 

In regards to Watson, I was actually discussing this with a friend of mine this morning.  If he had one or two cases against him, they could make this go away.  But he's got, like, over 20 or some ridiculous number.  That's not going away anytime soon.  For those reasons, I don't see him playing anytime soon, if ever again.  

[Ball Security]

25 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

What's so interesting to me about the Watson scenario is we are 1 year into this and literally nothing has changed. I can't imagine he goes into next season as a Texan, but I am also not really sure what can happen between now and the draft to expedite the situation so that a team would be comfortable enough to trade for him. Post-draft, the number of teams in play for him likely diminishes significantly ... which won't help his trade value. Such a bizarre situation and I feel like this should have been ironed out long ago, yet we are still in the same position we sat a year ago.

The criminal side MAY get wrapped up soon if the DA chooses not to indict.  If he is indicted, I can’t see it being resolved in 2022 and maybe even 2023.  If he is not indicted, there still is the civil process.  They tried to settle in October, but failed.  Now, if there is no indictment, then maybe that could pave the way to a civil settlement.  If it’s not settled, then it gets murky.  He’ll have a deposition that could be really ugly.  So even if he doesn’t go to jail, the league will have to decide how to punish.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

39 minutes ago, zskins said:

 

Ron also said all cards on the table as well. That was more recent quote then your quote (which I already knew about). 

And you take that to mean that Heineke is one of those cards?  After he just laughed in response to how badly they need a QB and considered it an understatement?

 

I'd file 'all cards on the table' directly under coach speak.

[ColonialWBSkinsFan]

 

I'm starting to think more and more that Matt Ryan may be the guy... I don't in any way have any "connections", just putting two and two together from listening to RR's interviews and public statements... I don't think there's a prayer of getting any of Rogers, Russ, or D Watson.  And I don't think they'll pay in draft assets what it would cost to get Carr.  

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

What's noteworthy to me is some like Keim hinted that they had an interest in Fields but would only make a deal if they find the deal affordable.  This article flat out said they tried to do it.

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/washington/post/_/id/42246/washingtons-faith-in-its-roster-could-lead-to-aggressive-pursuit-of-qbs

 

 

Last offseason Washington did not view its roster as being complete enough to mortgage the future for a quarterback. That meant making an offer, but not going overboard, trying to trade for Matthew Stafford. This offseason the team plans to be "selectively aggressive," according to general manager Martin Mayhew.

 

After a 7-10 season, marked by COVID-19 absences and key injuries down the stretch, coach Ron Rivera said he likes the roster construction. He liked how the team played during its four-game winning streak (Weeks 10-13), shaping his vision for the future.

Rivera is 14-19 over his first two seasons with Washington and improvement in 2022 will be pivotal. But he remains steadfast the franchise is on the right path.

"I look at things with rose-colored glasses," he said. "I'm an optimist. As you look at things you go, 'I feel pretty good about this.'"

 

In 2021, Washington offered a first- and third-round pick in the 2021 NFL draft to the Detroit Lions for Stafford, a proposal that would have allowed Washington to keep building. But the Los Angeles Rams made an offer Washington couldn't top, sending quarterback Jared Goff plus two first-rounders (2022 and 2023) and a 2021 third-round pick to Detroit.

Then during the 2021 draft, Washington tried to move up to select quarterback Justin Fields, but the asking price was too rich.

 

This offseason Washington will explore deals involving the top quarterbacks who could be available. That includes Seattle's Russell Wilson, Houston's Deshaun Watson (who is facing 22 lawsuits alleging sexual assault and inappropriate behavior and requested a trade a year ago) and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers. And likely the next level down, such as Las Vegas' Derek Carr.

 

However, those players might not be available or realistic, and the rookie class might not provide the immediate help desired. The sweet spot could be a mid-tier quarterback such as San Francisco's Jimmy Garoppolo, who would not require as much trade capital or salary-cap space. He would represent an upgrade while allowing Washington to maintain talent around him.

 

...The same can be said of the quarterback pursuit. The team has been studying its options for a while, from the draft to potential targets via free agency or a trade.

Washington is ready to make a move and should have at least 12 starters who are age 27 or younger next season.

"Our personnel is more than good enough," Rivera said. "Again, I'm optimistic. I believe in our team. I believe in what we can be."

 

 

 

1 hour ago, ColonialWBSkinsFan said:

 

I'm starting to think more and more that Matt Ryan may be the guy... I don't in any way have any "connections", just putting two and two together from listening to RR's interviews and public statements... I don't think there's a prayer of getting any of Rogers, Russ, or D Watson.  And I don't think they'll pay in draft assets what it would cost to get Carr.  

 

 

 

I'd be surprised considering the cap hit and Arthur Blank saying they aren't trading him.  But its possible.

 

If i am forced to pick a guy they could land.  I'd say Jimmy G. I think he ends up available and Mayhew has relationships with the SF FO.   And they probably can get him without needing to use their first rounder. 

Edited January 19, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Mooka]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pittsburgh move up in the draft and target Malik Willis. Tomlin mentioned that he covets mobility in a QB the other day, Willis is that. He is actually a perfect fit for the Pittsburgh “way”. A team that likes to pin their identity on their running game and defense but still move the ball through the air when needed. 

 

I definitely feel like someone is going to trade up for Willis as he has the best athletic/playmaking ability and runs sub 4.40 which is ridiculous for a QB.

 

Or maybe Houston just takes him at #3. Mills looked decent but doesn't mean they don't want to upgrade if someone is there. 

 

On our squad, I dunno. I feel like he'd have to sit for a while and might not be the best NFL ready guy. Corrall/Pickett/Howell all have at least 3 years starting experience and I'm assuming played against tougher competition. 

[CobraCommander]

1 hour ago, ColonialWBSkinsFan said:

 

I'm starting to think more and more that Matt Ryan may be the guy... I don't in any way have any "connections", just putting two and two together from listening to RR's interviews and public statements... I don't think there's a prayer of getting any of Rogers, Russ, or D Watson.  And I don't think they'll pay in draft assets what it would cost to get Carr.  

 

 

I will literally cry if we get some old fossil with weak hips in this building. Please no more geriatric QBs.  

[Redskins 2021]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

What's noteworthy to me is some like Keim hinted that they had an interest in Fields but would only make a deal if they find the deal affordable.  This article flat out said they tried to do it.

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/washington/post/_/id/42246/washingtons-faith-in-its-roster-could-lead-to-aggressive-pursuit-of-qbs

 

 

Last offseason Washington did not view its roster as being complete enough to mortgage the future for a quarterback. That meant making an offer, but not going overboard, trying to trade for Matthew Stafford. This offseason the team plans to be "selectively aggressive," according to general manager Martin Mayhew.

 

After a 7-10 season, marked by COVID-19 absences and key injuries down the stretch, coach Ron Rivera said he likes the roster construction. He liked how the team played during its four-game winning streak (Weeks 10-13), shaping his vision for the future.

Rivera is 14-19 over his first two seasons with Washington and improvement in 2022 will be pivotal. But he remains steadfast the franchise is on the right path.

"I look at things with rose-colored glasses," he said. "I'm an optimist. As you look at things you go, 'I feel pretty good about this.'"

 

In 2021, Washington offered a first- and third-round pick in the 2021 NFL draft to the Detroit Lions for Stafford, a proposal that would have allowed Washington to keep building. But the Los Angeles Rams made an offer Washington couldn't top, sending quarterback Jared Goff plus two first-rounders (2022 and 2023) and a 2021 third-round pick to Detroit.

Then during the 2021 draft, Washington tried to move up to select quarterback Justin Fields, but the asking price was too rich.

 

This offseason Washington will explore deals involving the top quarterbacks who could be available. That includes Seattle's Russell Wilson, Houston's Deshaun Watson (who is facing 22 lawsuits alleging sexual assault and inappropriate behavior and requested a trade a year ago) and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers. And likely the next level down, such as Las Vegas' Derek Carr.

 

However, those players might not be available or realistic, and the rookie class might not provide the immediate help desired. The sweet spot could be a mid-tier quarterback such as San Francisco's Jimmy Garoppolo, who would not require as much trade capital or salary-cap space. He would represent an upgrade while allowing Washington to maintain talent around him.

 

...The same can be said of the quarterback pursuit. The team has been studying its options for a while, from the draft to potential targets via free agency or a trade.

Washington is ready to make a move and should have at least 12 starters who are age 27 or younger next season.

"Our personnel is more than good enough," Rivera said. "Again, I'm optimistic. I believe in our team. I believe in what we can be."

 

 

 

 

I'd be surprised considering the cap hit and Arthur Blank saying they aren't trading him.  But its possible.

 

If i am forced to pick a guy they could land.  I'd say Jimmy G. I think he ends up available and Mayhew has relationships with the SF FO.   And they probably can get him without needing to use their first rounder. 

I think he may be who we end up with after they try other moves.  Probably a second rounder would get him,not the worst move. Gets injured alot, but his teams win

[Warhead36]

I don't think the Falcons want to trade Ryan and I don't think they can either without breaking their cap.

[Ball Security]

27 minutes ago, Mooka said:

 

I definitely feel like someone is going to trade up for Willis as he has the best athletic/playmaking ability and runs sub 4.40 which is ridiculous for a QB.

 

Or maybe Houston just takes him at #3. Mills looked decent but doesn't mean they don't want to upgrade if someone is there. 

 

On our squad, I dunno. I feel like he'd have to sit for a while and might not be the best NFL ready guy. Corrall/Pickett/Howell all have at least 3 years starting experience and I'm assuming played against tougher competition. 

I’m of the mind that you could draft Willis and develop him slowly while playing him by copying what the Ravens did with Jackson.  Get another back to compliment Gibson and McKissic and run heavy behind Cosmi and Flowers.  Although I expect him to be gone, I would not be surprised if Scherff doesn’t like what he sees in FA and comes back hat in hand.  If they are going the rookie QB route, you can resign him with off-ramps three to four years down the road.

[HigSkin]

43 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

However, those players might not be available or realistic, and the rookie class might not provide the immediate help desired. The sweet spot could be a mid-tier quarterback such as San Francisco's Jimmy Garoppolo, who would not require as much trade capital or salary-cap space. He would represent an upgrade while allowing Washington to maintain talent around him.

 

 

I'll say this about the Garoppolo thing, he's shown he can be a part of beating Dallas.  If WFT wants to go anywhere, they're going to have to figure out how to compete with Dallas first.  There's only been 7 teams go the route to the Superbowl as Wildcard since it's inception in 1970.

 

I view Jimmy G as a Kirk Cousins "light", has trouble in spots under pressure.  If we go that route, it must mean their evaluations of this draft QB's must be pretty bad.  Meaning you don't think you can get a Jimmy G type player out of any of them. 

[88Comrade2000]

2 hours ago, ColonialWBSkinsFan said:

 

I'm starting to think more and more that Matt Ryan may be the guy... I don't in any way have any "connections", just putting two and two together from listening to RR's interviews and public statements... I don't think there's a prayer of getting any of Rogers, Russ, or D Watson.  And I don't think they'll pay in draft assets what it would cost to get Carr.  

 

 

Matt’s cap hit us as high as Cousins. He’s a Falcon for another year.

[method man]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

What's noteworthy to me is some like Keim hinted that they had an interest in Fields but would only make a deal if they find the deal affordable.  This article flat out said they tried to do it.

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/washington/post/_/id/42246/washingtons-faith-in-its-roster-could-lead-to-aggressive-pursuit-of-qbs

 

 

Last offseason Washington did not view its roster as being complete enough to mortgage the future for a quarterback. That meant making an offer, but not going overboard, trying to trade for Matthew Stafford. This offseason the team plans to be "selectively aggressive," according to general manager Martin Mayhew.

 

After a 7-10 season, marked by COVID-19 absences and key injuries down the stretch, coach Ron Rivera said he likes the roster construction. He liked how the team played during its four-game winning streak (Weeks 10-13), shaping his vision for the future.

Rivera is 14-19 over his first two seasons with Washington and improvement in 2022 will be pivotal. But he remains steadfast the franchise is on the right path.

"I look at things with rose-colored glasses," he said. "I'm an optimist. As you look at things you go, 'I feel pretty good about this.'"

 

In 2021, Washington offered a first- and third-round pick in the 2021 NFL draft to the Detroit Lions for Stafford, a proposal that would have allowed Washington to keep building. But the Los Angeles Rams made an offer Washington couldn't top, sending quarterback Jared Goff plus two first-rounders (2022 and 2023) and a 2021 third-round pick to Detroit.

Then during the 2021 draft, Washington tried to move up to select quarterback Justin Fields, but the asking price was too rich.

 

This offseason Washington will explore deals involving the top quarterbacks who could be available. That includes Seattle's Russell Wilson, Houston's Deshaun Watson (who is facing 22 lawsuits alleging sexual assault and inappropriate behavior and requested a trade a year ago) and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers. And likely the next level down, such as Las Vegas' Derek Carr.

 

However, those players might not be available or realistic, and the rookie class might not provide the immediate help desired. The sweet spot could be a mid-tier quarterback such as San Francisco's Jimmy Garoppolo, who would not require as much trade capital or salary-cap space. He would represent an upgrade while allowing Washington to maintain talent around him.

 

...The same can be said of the quarterback pursuit. The team has been studying its options for a while, from the draft to potential targets via free agency or a trade.

Washington is ready to make a move and should have at least 12 starters who are age 27 or younger next season.

"Our personnel is more than good enough," Rivera said. "Again, I'm optimistic. I believe in our team. I believe in what we can be."

 

 

 

 

I'd be surprised considering the cap hit and Arthur Blank saying they aren't trading him.  But its possible.

 

If i am forced to pick a guy they could land.  I'd say Jimmy G. I think he ends up available and Mayhew has relationships with the SF FO.   And they probably can get him without needing to use their first rounder. 

I think it is unlikely but Fields could be a trade option depending on who the Bears hire for GM/coach.

 

Keim had a great pod with Jason Reid today. Reid was a great get by ESPN and instantly becomes the draft guy they have who I trust the most. They went through all the QBs and Keim reaffirmed that the team has already ruled out a few. Keim seems to think Trubisky + a guy in the 2nd/3rd is a very realistic route as he asks Reid about ILBs at #11. Keim mentions Ridder as a guy they like and La Canfora mentioned they may like Strong. Don’t know if it means anything but Keim totally forgot to ask about Howell and Reid had to bring him up

[RWJ]

Go vet that can get the job done (proven track record that might be available for a 4th and change) but also draft a QB if WFT management thinks can grow in the 1st or even 2nd round.  

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Sign Mariota/Trubisky to a 1 year, $5-6m deal

 

Draft Howell, Corral or Pickett (My preferred order) at #11.

 

You aren't pressing a rookie into the role in Week 1. You have your long-term starter at QB. You can win now with Trubisky or Mariota. You don't throw away cap space OR draft capital.

 

QB position is solved both short and long-term. You have 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th in the draft to fill out the roster, and around $20-30m in cap space to spend freely on needs.

 

That's the most "friendly" way to build the franchise and new brand ... super young team, lot's of cap space going forward, and a QB on a rookie deal.

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Then during the 2021 draft, Washington tried to move up to select quarterback Justin Fields, but the asking price was too rich

That’s very conservative. I mean, jump from 19 to 11 say for a future first and a couple of day 3 picks. 
 

The price could be significantly higher this year.

[Conn]

Being willing to wait and draft Ridder in the 2nd or even if it was higher would totally break my confidence in this regime. Not that I have a ton left, but Rivera gets a big swing at QB before I really judge him, it’s only fair. If his big swing is a Trubisky+Ridder combo we may as well start counting down the days. Bye, Rivera.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

21 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

That’s very conservative. I mean, jump from 19 to 11 say for a future first and a couple of day 3 picks. 
 

The price could be significantly higher this year.

 

Don't forget, after Denver picked at #9 (and they loved Surtain and said so repeatedly after the draft when asked about taking him over a QB ... so they likely were NOT trading off that pick) ... #10 was Philly (weren't trading with us) ... Giants weren't trading with us at #11 ... so we were pigeon-holed and pretty much stuck unless Fields fell to #13 or #14 ... but he didn't. I knew once Philly was on the clock, we were screwed if Chicago or New England wanted to jump in for a QB, because of the division-rivals we were basically out of the running until pick 13/14 ... and no guarantee Chargers would have traded off #13 with Slater there.

 

#6 Miami wasn't moving off #6 after trading back up

#7 Lions weren't likely trading off #7 with Sewell there given their needs

#8 Panthers loved Horn, supposedly, but maybe we could have gotten to #8 ... but who knows what the price for that was.

#9 Denver at #9 liked Surtain so much they didn't want to draft a QB (big need) so I doubt they would have traded off (we could have tried hard, and they named a price that was unrealistic given how much they liked Surtain, or just flat out said no)

#10 Philly, #11 Giants, #12 Dallas were not going to trade with us so we could get a franchise QB.

 

So to say we could have paid what Chicago did to move up, isn't really understanding the dynamics that were unfolding in the draft.

Edited January 19, 2022 by JamesMadisonSkins

[mistertim]

3 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

And you take that to mean that Heineke is one of those cards?  After he just laughed in response to how badly they need a QB and considered it an understatement?

 

I'd file 'all cards on the table' directly under coach speak.

 

Give the poor guy a break, he's holding on to any possible hope that Heinicke could be the starting QB next season. Why crush his dreams?

 

1 hour ago, Mooka said:

 

I definitely feel like someone is going to trade up for Willis as he has the best athletic/playmaking ability and runs sub 4.40 which is ridiculous for a QB.

 

Or maybe Houston just takes him at #3. Mills looked decent but doesn't mean they don't want to upgrade if someone is there. 

 

On our squad, I dunno. I feel like he'd have to sit for a while and might not be the best NFL ready guy. Corrall/Pickett/Howell all have at least 3 years starting experience and I'm assuming played against tougher competition. 

 

To me Willis is one of the biggest wildcards in a QB class full of wildcards. His season was somewhat disappointing considering his hype and how he was playing at the beginning of the season. But then he had some real stinker games with some very questionable accuracy and decision making which led to lots of picks.

 

He's also a running QB so that would have to be taken into account by any team that drafts him...they'd probably need to either retool their offense to suit a running QB ala the Ravens, or be super patient and try to turn Willis into pass first NFL QB, which will probably take some time.

 

That being said, his physical traits are very impressive. So I could see some team being very enamored with him and taking him high in the 1st round. But I could also see teams being wary about his inconsistent play as well as his mostly one-read-and-run offense to the point where he slides into the 2nd round.

 

45 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

I'll say this about the Garoppolo thing, he's shown he can be a part of beating Dallas.  If WFT wants to go anywhere, they're going to have to figure out how to compete with Dallas first.  There's only been 7 teams go the route to the Superbowl as Wildcard since it's inception in 1970.

 

I view Jimmy G as a Kirk Cousins "light", has trouble in spots under pressure.  If we go that route, it must mean their evaluations of this draft QB's must be pretty bad.  Meaning you don't think you can get a Jimmy G type player out of any of them. 

 

So basically we'd be giving up draft picks (and quite possibly a lucrative new contract as part of the deal) for "Kirk Cousins lite"

 

[Est.1974]

10 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

So to say we could have paid what Chicago did to move up, isn't really understanding the dynamics that were unfolding in the draft.

I think I did to be honest. Thanks for the detail though 

 

Rivera bottled giving up a future first both in the draft for a QB and in the pursuit of Stafford. He will need to show more balls this time around.

[Voice_of_Reason]

5 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Don't forget, after Denver picked at #9 (and they loved Surtain and said so repeatedly after the draft when asked about taking him over a QB ... so they likely were NOT trading off that pick) ... #10 was Philly (weren't trading with us) ... Giants weren't trading with us at #11 ... so we were pigeon-holed and pretty much stuck unless Fields fell to #13 or #14 ... but he didn't. I knew once Philly was on the clock, we were screwed if Chicago or New England wanted to jump in for a QB, because of the division-rivals we were basically out of the running until pick 13/14 ... and no guarantee Chargers would have traded off #13 with Slater there.

 

#6 Miami wasn't moving off #6 after trading back up

#7 Lions weren't likely trading off #7 with Sewell there given their needs

#8 Panthers loved Horn, supposedly, but maybe we could have gotten to #8 ... but who knows what the price for that was.

#9 Denver at #9 liked Surtain so much they didn't want to draft a QB (big need) so I doubt they would have traded off (we could have tried hard, and they named a price that was unrealistic given how much they liked Surtain, or just flat out said no)

#10 Philly, #11 Giants, #12 Dallas were not going to trade with us so we could get a franchise QB.

 

So to say we could have paid what Chicago did to move up, isn't really understanding the dynamics that were unfolding in the draft.

I'm going to add to this a couple of things.  I actually put this in the Fitzpatrick thread when arguing with a poster who said we never should have signed any FA QB, gone into the draft knowing we were going to pick one.

 

So, I wrote the following, which also addresses how often big-trade ups work.  And the fact if we wanted Fields 

 

Quote

So you go into the draft, with pick #19, absolutely knowing you have to trade up?  That, my friend, is a REALLY bad strategy.  Because then you are forced to panic and pay whatever the asking price is for a completely unknown quantity, regardless of the draft grade you have on a guy.  You put yourself into a low-leverage position.  

 

Also, Galdi did this analysis a while ago: Rarely, have trade-ups for QBs worked out.  Go back to 2012:

 

2012: 2nd overall - Griffin - Redskins traded up, giving up 2 1sts and a second.  BUST

2016: 1st overall - Goff - Rams traded 2 firsts, 2 thirds, and a bunch of other stuff to move up. BUST

2016: 2nd overall - Wentz - Eagles traded 2 firsts, a couple thirds and a second.  Wentz is going to be on his 3rd team in 6 years after Indy gets rid of him.

2017: 2nd overall - Mitch - Chicago moved up one spot to grab Mitch (really for no reason, and gave up 2 3rds and a 4th to do it.  The cost wasn't THAT much for 1 spot, but it didn't work out. 

2017: 10th overall - Mahomes - Now, this one DID work out.  KC gave up a 2017 3rd and a 2018 1st to move up from 27 to 10.  

2018: 3rd overall - Darnold - to move up from 6 to 3, the Jets gave up 2 2018 2nds and a 2019 2nd. And Darnold is a BUST.

2018: 7th overall - Josh Allen - This one also worked out.  Buffalo moved up from 12 to 7 to select Allen.  The cost was 2 2018 second rounders.  

2018: 10th overall - Rosen - The Cards moved up from 15 to 10 to select Rosen, and gave up a 3rd and 5th. (This was cheap. But still a bust.)

** The Ravens also traded up (slightly) to the 32nd pick in the 1st round to draft Lamar.  I'm not really including it, it clearly worked, but since it is the last pick in the first round, it was the Raven's second 1st round selection, and they moved up a few spots from the second round.  

** The only notable trade in the 2020 draft was the Packers for Love at 26.  And that trade is convoluted, and he hasn't played, so make of it what you will.  

2021: Lance - SF moved from 12 to 3.  They gave up a 2021 3rd, a 2022 and 2023 1st to do it. 

2021: Fields - Chicago moved up from 20 to 11 with the NYG, and it cost them a 2021 5th, and a 2022 1st and 4th.  

 

Let's say 2021 is just too early to tell.  So there were 8 trade ups of note.  6 are definite busts.  2 worked out really well.  Those are bad odds to bank on without having a contingency plan.  

 

** NOTE: There is no way the Giants were going to trade with Washington to get to 11 for a franchise QB.  Phily was at 10, also not going to trade with Washington for a franchise QB.   They would have had to go up to at worst 9, which is 10 spots, to get there.  Ron has commented they inquired about getting up to 8 or 9, but the price was more than they were willing to pay, probably for Fields. There is a limit to what you want to give up to get a particular player.  Would it have cost as much as SF paid to move up to get Lance?  Probably not.  But they gave up 3 really valuable picks to do it.  It would have been closer to that compensation than it would have been to the Bears moving up to get Fields.  Because you're knocking either Carolina or or Denver down to the back half of the first round.   Now, if you've got a "Mahomes" grade on fields, then you do it.  If you don't, you don't.

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

8 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I'm going to add to this a couple of things.  I actually put this in the Fitzpatrick thread when arguing with a poster who said we never should have signed any FA QB, gone into the draft knowing we were going to pick one.

 

So, I wrote the following, which also addresses how often big-trade ups work.  And the fact if we wanted Fields 

 

 

 

The same argument exists this off-season. I think. Heinecke showed he can be a high-level backup QB in this league. But that got you 7 wins in 2021 and you're a year further into this thing and more pressure to win more games ...so get a veteran to compete .... and then go into the draft planning to address QB but not having your hands absolutely tied.

 

We pick in a better position, generally, at #11 versus #19 last year. Those 8 spots make a big difference, since you can move up and keep a team within range of a top prospect, which in turn lowers the cost a bit to what you have to pay to move up, say, 4 spots. But we aren't going to be able to make a move until draft day which means we'll need to have an insurance policy.

Edited January 19, 2022 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Voice_of_Reason]

12 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Give the poor guy a break, he's holding on to any possible hope that Heinicke could be the starting QB next season. Why crush his dreams?

I'm not going to give him a break.  

 

What Ron can't say, "TH can't start in this league.  We know it.  He knows it.  Every Defensive Coordinator in the NFL knows it.  He doesn't have the physical skills to be a starter.  He can be an excellent in-game replacement and 1-2 game fill-in because he's fearless, mobile, and confidant.  That is his ceiling." (This has the added benefit of being the truth.  But why would you talk negatively about a guy you like?  There is no benefit to doing so.)

 

What Ron can say, "We have 4 avenues, somebody on our team, and Taylor competes with anybody, a trade for a veteran, a free agent, or the draft.  We are looking at everything." (And then he goes on to talk about even looking at players they have in positions of strength which they can use as assets.

 

99.95% of Ron's discussion of the QB position is about guys not on the team.  He's paying lip service to a guy they have under contract, because he's under contract, and there's no reason to crush his soul now.

 

Let me state this plainly: If there is a "plan" where TH starts 1 game next year, if that's part of the plan, absolutely every single person in the organization deserves to be fired.  This is not "starter goes down, TH has to play," like this year. That's fine.  I'm saying, if the plan is either they think TH can play and they don't upgrade (this won't happen), or they draft a guy and they think TH is the bridge), that's a criminal offense.  

 

If the plan is to fill the future need with a rookie, and there is a chance another QB has to start the season, or even the whole season to give the rookie a red-shirt year, then they are ALSO signing Mitch, Teddy, Marcus, or somebody like that to be the Day 1 starter.  

 

There is 0% chance TH is the day 1 starter unless there is an injury, or Ron has completely lost his damn mind.