Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[DWinzit]

9 minutes ago, dyst said:

Is there a reason why some people want Mariota over Carr if it came down to those two? I know stats don’t paint the whole picture but Marcus’ stats are well below Carr’s in comparison. I think between those two you take Carr.

I don't know which would be better but: More mobile, shorter contract, half the cap hit

[Rufus T Firefly]

36 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You are selling that to the wrong guy.  😀  I've done my share of studying QBs who have won SBs and the game manager types are the exceptions not the rule. I've posted on that point plenty on this thread. 

 

Look at the 4 QBs who were in the championship games this year.  Over time the value of a franchise QB in today's NFL is going up not down.  

 

But no I don't believe a stacked roster and a game manager likely wins you a SB.  Ironically some say that's why KC moved on from Alex who haf a 2-4 playoff record. 

It's not only the less likely route to a title, but the game manager-ish guys who've won SBs lately (Eli, Flacco, Foles) all did it by unexpectedly elevating their play in those postseasons. So, do you really want to bank on some decent QB and then just hope he finds some miracle gear to take it home? Doesn't sound like much of a plan.

 

It should also be pointed out that each of the above have other postseasons where they didn't elevate their games. 

 

 

[kingdaddy]

30 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

You might as well be talking about a different game. Gibbs did that in the 1980s and early 90s. I doubt I need to tell you how different the game is now. Back then if you had a stout defense, a good running game that ate up the clock, and a QB who could manage the game, you could go any given year. That simply isn't the case anymore. 

 

I'd argue that your theory would take even longer, given how rare it is for a mediocre QB to win the SB. Even when you have an excellent defense it's FAR more likely that without that top QB you'll keep that defensive unit for a few years and then when contracts come up you have to water it down...all without ever even getting to the SB.

 

IMO that's the territory we're headed into. Potentially great defense for 3-5 years, but unless it somehow turns into the 85 Bears or 00 Ravens, it's very unlikely that it will win us a SB with a mediocre QB (even with those defenses it took a bit of luck). So we'll be stuck in 7-9 to 9-7 purgatory with maybe a year of over 10 wins peppered in and one or two playoff appearances depending on the rest of the conference.

 

So basically...yeah what was noted a bit earlier by someone else...we'll be the Gibbs 2 team all over again.

 

Great debating with you...I still think SB's can be won with great offensive lines/running games and great defenses....SF nearly proved this last year if they hadn't choked up the game in the 4th qtr and look who their QB was. I think Garrapolo is terrible and he nearly got a ring. SF is my blueprint for the WFT. Great defense, run the ball, pick your spots to throw with a QB you can depend on.

 

[Conn]

2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

Feels good knowing we came close. We tried. We on a mission.

Personally sick of being the team who came close in regards to QB interest but didn’t get their guy. But I know what you mean, it feels good at least to know Rivera is looking to upgrade and win.

[Darth Tater]

6 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

It's not only the less likely route to a title, but the game manager-ish guys who've won SBs lately (Eli, Flacco, Foles) all did it by unexpectedly elevating their play in those postseasons. So, do you really want to bank on some decent QB and then just hope he finds some miracle gear to take it home? Doesn't sound like much of a plan.

 

It should also be pointed out that each of the above have other postseasons where they didn't elevate their games. 

 

 

I wouldn't cal Eli or Flacco game managers.  I always thought it was their inability to be game managers that limited them.  Of course, I don't use the term game manager in a euphemistic fashion that most people do.  Brady and Peyton were great because they were ultimate game managers.

[kingdaddy]

8 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

It's not only the less likely route to a title, but the game manager-ish guys who've won SBs lately (Eli, Flacco, Foles) all did it by unexpectedly elevating their play in those postseasons. So, do you really want to bank on some decent QB and then just hope he finds some miracle gear to take it home? Doesn't sound like much of a plan.

 

It should also be pointed out that each of the above have other postseasons where they didn't elevate their games. 

 

 

Of course you don't count on them elevating their games in the Super Bowl, you count on your pass rush, play calling and solid roster to help your average QB out. Players, from what I've seen, just want a QB that they believe they can win with. Our defense is starting to take on an identity where they will feel like they will be the reason we win or lose....mostly win. Just give them a guy at QB who they feel can win. 

BTW, don't underestimate the impact a great head coach and coaching staff play in all of this. The year the Eagles won with Foles their offensive play calling was incredible. 

[CapsSkins]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Keep in mind that the Raider's decision to trade Carr depends entirely if they think Mariota can play better than him and start all the games.  

 

Otherwise they are going to look at it the same exact way and not trade him.  

 

I've been hearing some smoke that Gruden really likes Mariota and doesn't love Carr. And actions-wise, Mariota is on a pretty rich deal for a backup ($10M/2yrs), so I'd believe that Gruden really like Marcus. As for how he feels about Carr, there's enough smoke that he's not super in love with him to believe there's probably something there. And the Raiders need to move cap space. 

 

It could well be the case that Carr isn't available per se, but if they get an offer they feel they can't refuse, lo and behold the deal is done. That's why I'm saying, what if you called Chucky and said we'll give you pick #19 for Carr but this offer explodes in 48 hrs. You could try to force it through that way. And it would fit the bill of Ron being aggressive to find a QB. If Gruden doesn't bite on 19 for Carr, offer a 5th for Mariota and go from there.

 

One of the two LV guys should be available. They need to clear cap and it doesn't make sense to carry both at their current cap hits. 

[86 Snyder]

4 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Great debating with you...I still think SB's can be won with great offensive lines/running games and great defenses....SF nearly proved this last year if they hadn't choked up the game in the 4th qtr and look who their QB was. I think Garrapolo is terrible and he nearly got a ring. SF is my blueprint for the WFT. Great defense, run the ball, pick your spots to throw with a QB you can depend on.

 

 

Do you also believe in the concept of establishing the run?

[kingdaddy]

Just now, 86 Snyder said:

 

Do you also believe in the concept of establishing the run?

 

Just now, 86 Snyder said:

 

Do you also believe in the concept of establishing the run?

Without a doubt....I'm from the Joe Gibbs era. It's a thing of beauty to watch once you do it. I love Derick Henry and how he wears teams down. Would kill for that.

[TheShredder]

13 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I don't know which would be better but: More mobile, shorter contract, half the cap hit

Mariota is more mobile and keeps his eyes down field.  He had a new OC 4 years in a row with Tennessee.  I think there's multiple teams interested in acquiring him and he'd be less expensive than Carr. 

[mhd24]

Carr isn’t worth the #19 pick.  He’s not held in the same esteem as Stafford was.  I’m not a huge Carr fan.  I’d trade at most a 2nd for him. His value is what Alex’s was when we traded for him.  Plus, the Raiders have cap issues.  We’d be doing them a favor by taking that contract.  As Michael Lombardi said, Gruden has to pick one and extend while letting the other go and extend Darren Waller to a top 3 TE contract 

[BayouBrave86]

This team has learned absolutely nothing if we get Carr or Mariota. No thanks. It’s Watson or bust. 

[CapsSkins]

Just now, kingdaddy said:

 

Without a doubt....I'm from the Joe Gibbs era. It's a thing of beauty to watch once you do it. I love Derick Henry and how he wears teams down. Would kill for that.

 

Run game + play action + deep threat to clear the box + mobile QB (not necessarily scrambling) to extend plays. Four ingredients to a great offense no matter what system IMO.

[CommanderDOOM]

Just now, ConnSKINS26 said:

Personally sick of being the team who came close in regards to QB....

 

And here we are in quiet the pickle....again .

 Tiny Heinike falls in our universe and we're taking him for granite.

[mistertim]

22 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

No one disagrees with what you're saying, however Brees, Rodgers and Foles all have the same number of rings. Your theory is spot on correct, just let us all know how to get the stud QB you speak of...if you can do that the WFT should hire you.

Until then, "lucking" into a SB with a well built roster and an average QB might be our best shot. Doesn't mean we dont keep trying to find the stud though.

 

Well, I'm certainly not saying that if we somehow fell backwards in to a SB win with a mediocre QB and a great defense I'd be displeased. It's a SB win...I'd be over the moon. I'm just saying I think assuming that that scenario is anything more than an incredibly unlikely event would be a bit naive. So while we obviously continue to build the team, I still think the major focus, even if it requires giving up some draft picks to move up and get a guy, needs to be a QB before all else. 

 

Also, sorry if I'm coming off as a jerk or snarky to you and @Burgold. Just having a frustrating day in general and realized that the tone of my posts hasn't been great.

Edited January 31, 2021 by mistertim

[The Consigliere]

8 hours ago, ColonialWBSkinsFan said:

Damn, as much as I enjoyed the division win and playoff game, I’m seriously now thinking we’d have been better off losing that Eagles game and drafting 10th instead of 19th... sigh...

x1000000

 

It's why I was 1000% behind the tank all season long. Alex Smith's miracle comeback cost us a franchise QB and sent us back into the tailspin that has been the past three decades. We aren't in position to build anything after blowing our chance for a franchise QB in the '20 and '21 drafts. Culture is great, no doubt critical, and that's been improved dramatically, but without a QB, it doesn't matter at all, and we had a chance for a QB on a cheap rookie contract for 5 years, and now? Barring a miracle, we're screwed. Out of range this year, next year's QB draft is back to the muddle that were classes like '13, '14  and '19. Barring us paying a gargantuan amount of goodies for Watson, or signing Dak for an insane mega deal, we're screwed, and in either of those scenarios, no cheap rookie deal to provide a half decade of cap flexibility. Nope. That door is CLOSED, barring a miracle. 

[Skinsinparadise]

39 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I have been warming some to either Mariota or Carr over the other options. That is if the decision is not reaching for a top draft pick and Watson is out of the equation. 

They can be the starter more than likely be told they need to earn the starting spot over Heinicke and Allen. Then if a decent draft selection falls to them on day 2 go for it. Otherwise wait a year and rill with what you have.

 

At the moment, it might be the best choice by default.   With Keim and Finlay both saying they'd be in on Watson, I believe it.  But the idea that they can land him just seems absurd to me.  So many teams with better capital. 

 

My fear about waiting a year is at the moment its looking like it could be a dog year for QBs both as to the draft and FA.  Maybe Matt Ryan hits the market then because that's the ramp exit year on his contract if i recall correctly but he will be 37 then. 

 

39 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

 

Do you think RR would be adamant about bringing in a known vet to win now if Allen were definitely healthy? would he focus more on the draft

 

 

Reading between the lines of what some of the beat guys have said no I don't think Rivera sees Allen as a franchise QB whether he was healthy or not. i suspect Allen will be healthy by the time the season starts but who knows?

 

What guys like Standig speculated is that Rivera doesn't want a wildcard at QB but a veteran he could trust.   Otherwise, I don't know, I'd guess if their scouts were in love with a QB prospect they'd shoot for them in the draft. 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[heyholetsgogrant]

33 minutes ago, dyst said:

Is there a reason why some people want Mariota over Carr if it came down to those two? I know stats don’t paint the whole picture but Marcus’ stats are well below Carr’s in comparison. I think between those two you take Carr.

Mariota fits the new NFL prototype more, a mobile QB who can extend plays. Carr is more of a pocket passer.

[86 Snyder]

6 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

 

Without a doubt....I'm from the Joe Gibbs era. It's a thing of beauty to watch once you do it. I love Derick Henry and how he wears teams down. Would kill for that.

 

Well, analytics have proven its a negative EV scenario.  Much like trying to get to a Super Bowl without a top quarterback.

[TheShredder]

1 minute ago, BayouBrave86 said:

This team has learned absolutely nothing if we get Carr or Mariota. No thanks. It’s Watson or bust. 

If you get Mariota for fair compensation, they would be bringing in a former 2nd overall pick for competitive reasons on a very friendly cap number.  There's nothing negative about that where the cost is a day 2 pick.  Nothing but upside. 

[NYSkins21]

8 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

This team has learned absolutely nothing if we get Carr or Mariota. No thanks. It’s Watson or bust. 

Same. Watson or Allen and Heinicke.

[RWJ]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

At the moment, it might be the best choice by default.   With Keim and Finlay both saying they'd be in on Watson, I believe it.  But the idea that they can land him just seems absurd to me.  So many teams with better capital. 

 

My fear about waiting a year is at the moment its looking like it could be a dog year for QBs both as to the draft and FA.  Maybe Matt Ryan hits the market then because that's the ramp exit year on his contract if i recall correctly but he will be 37 then. 

 

Sure Keim and JP are saying that but you nailed it.  Other teams have better capital.  

[heyholetsgogrant]

19 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

This team has learned absolutely nothing if we get Carr or Mariota. No thanks. It’s Watson or bust. 

Bust, Really?  We almost beat the best team in the NFC with a QB who was studying for finals. Bringing in a vet like Carr is not bad idea.  Watson/Stafford or Bust Mentally is when teams overpay like the Rams.  Watson guarantees nothing.

Edited January 31, 2021 by heyholetsgogrant

[RWJ]

I'm just putting this out there.  IF we do draft a QB and stay @ #19 and do so keep an eye on Jones or Trusk.  Just saying.  

[max21]

Derek Carr? **** no