Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[method man]

Thinking Carr is worth a 3 is silly. Statistically, he had himself an impressive season with a below average to average supporting cast and kept a ****ty team competitive (their D was just horrid last year). I'd easily move #19 for him as well. He also seems to be getting better as his prior two years were statistically excellent. He has cut down on the interceptions and he doesn't fumble the ball a lot.

[CapsSkins]

16 minutes ago, Mooka said:

 

Its because he signed a big contract in 2016 after the Raiders went 12-3, but he followed that up with a relatively poor season and the Raiders haven't had a winning season since.

 

Mainly though, IMO Raiders won't trade him for less then a first round pick. 

 

Dude has had back to back seasons with >100 QBR, 4K+ yards, 20+ TDs and <10 INT's. And he's only 29 years old, can run. I would happily trade a 1st for him.

 

Edit: He is 29, not 27. My b there.

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by CapsSkins

[Darth Tater]

7 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

There's been enough smoke about Carr that I don't think it's pure fan speculation. But people here are valuing him at a 3rd or lower?

 

I wouldn't open with this, but I'd trade 19 for Carr. And would Gruden really say no to an offer like that when he has Mariota, whom he digs, on the roster and a cap situation to work through also?

Way to high. If a QB is available in trade, except for a few cases (maybe Stafford, definitely Watson this year and maybe on a tag), a third is my maximum,

[ExoDus84]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

WHY ARE YOU GUYS WRITING OFF HEINICKE'S AMAZING LOOKS? EVEN TOM BRADY CAME UP TO HIM AFTER THE GAME AND TOLD HIM HE WAS IN AWE OF HOW MUCH OF A HEARTTHROB HEINICKE IS!

 

Speaking of Tom, I'd say it's only a matter of time before Giselle leaves that goon for this dreamboat.

 

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

WHY ARE YOU GUYS WRITING OFF HEINICKE'S AMAZING LOOKS? EVEN TOM BRADY CAME UP TO HIM AFTER THE GAME AND TOLD HIM HE WAS IN AWE OF HOW MUCH OF A HEARTTHROB HEINICKE IS!

"Greatest Observer of Athletic Talent "  aka Goat.

[method man]

1 minute ago, Darth Tater said:

Way to high. If a QB is available in trade, except for a few cases (maybe Stafford, definitely Watson this year and maybe on a tag), a third is my maximum,

 

Then you are getting a backup quality QB so no point...

[mistertim]

Just now, method man said:

 

Then you are getting a backup quality QB so no point...

 

Carr isn't worth a 1st. I might be tempted to part with a 2nd for him. But certainly no higher than that. 

[method man]

My top 4 is as follows:

 

1. Dak if he is not franchised

2. Trade a #1 for Carr

3. Trade a #1 and #4 for Jordan Love

4. Trade 2 1sts and a 2nd or 3rd to move up to take Zach Wilson

Just now, mistertim said:

 

Carr isn't worth a 1st. I might be tempted to part with a 2nd for him. But certainly no higher than that. 

 

Why isn't he worth a first?

[Commander -JB-]

5 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Dude has had back to back seasons with >100 QBR, 4K+ yards, 20+ TDs and <10 INT's. And he's only 27 years old, can run. I would happily trade a 1st for him.

You have clearly bumped your head 

[CapsSkins]

5 minutes ago, -JB- said:

You have clearly bumped your head 

 

 

The irony of saying this in response to a stat line. It's literally data. Lol

 

ES: We need a QB who can beat Mahomes!

 

Derek Carr: <only guy to beat Mahomes this season thus far, almost did it twice>

 

ES: He's not worth more than a 3rd!

 

Lmao y'all wild 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by CapsSkins

[dyst]

We may end up having a QB fall to us in the draft or require little in a trade to move up if pieces in free agency fall into place.

[LetThePointsSoar]

5 minutes ago, method man said:

 

4. Trade 2 1sts and a 2nd or 3rd to move up to take Zach Wilson

 

Huh?   If we move that kind of draft capital for anyone other than Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields, we'd be insane. That's Chicago Bears /Mitchell Trubisky territory. 

 

If that's the only option on the table, you stand pat and see what's there at #19. 

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, method man said:

 

Why isn't he worth a first?

 

I just don't see him as being a great QB. I've watched him play a bunch of time and while he puts up decent stats he just doesn't really ever look like a guy who is elevating his offense. 

 

Dunno. Either way, why would the Raiders trade him away anyway? The best they have behind him is Mariota, who sucks. And it's not like they have a top 5 pick to get one of the top QB prospects coming out. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I mean, you HAVE to explore the Watson deal, but honestly, I still think even though he's requested a trade, it's massively unlikely, and if it happens, the team most likely to get him is the Dolphins.  They're a good team, have the #3 overall pick (thanks to the trade with Houston, oh sweet irony) and the #18 pick AND Tua.  If they want to go all-in, they can offer the Texans, at a minimum, 2 #1's this year and Tua, who was a #1 last year.  That's the equivalent of 3#1's basically, and all within the first round of 1 draft, and includes the overall pick. Maybe they have to sweeten the pot a little bit and throw something else in, but probably not a whole hell of a lot more than that is necessary.  

 

I doubt the Jets can get Watson because honestly why would he wave his no-trade clause to go to that organization.  I get they just hired a hot new coordinator, but they have been a train wreck of an organization since like 1974.  Even longer than us.

 

I really think if Watson goes anywhere, it's Miami.  Otherwise, I think he's going to just shut up and color. 

 

Which brinks us to other options.

 

Clearly option #1 is Jerrah screws up with Dak and lets him hit the FA market. Which seems unlikely.  But if that happens, you give Dak a blank check and ask him to fill it in and send him a lifetime supply of WFT #4 jerseys.  

 

Then we get to everything else.  

 

Darnold won't be available unless either the Jets use the #2 pick on a QB (which is possible) or they somehow get Watson.  If they select a QB at #2, and make Darnold available, the leverage is more on the side of the teams trying to get him than the Jets, so he could probably be had for a mid-round pick.  The problem with that is we don't really know if he's the answer or not, he's somebody you'd have to continue to develop.  He has a higher ceiling than Allen or Heineke, though.  So it might be worth it.  Though it wouldn't excite me.

 

Another possible/maybe is Derrick Carr or Marcus Mariota.  I actually probably like Carr more than most, and I think he would be a clear upgrade to what we have. But I wouldn't trade away the farm for him.  I like Mariota enough, but he's already been benched and switched teams once.  So he's clearly not the definitive answer.  I'd be willing to make a trade for Carr, as he's better than anything we have. I'd probably trade for Mariota also, but he'd probably be more in competition with Allen for a starter. So I woudn't trade much. I'd be more interested in Carr than Mariota.

 

Then there are the FAs. This is a really unimpressive group. I personally think Jamis Winston has some upside, but we need to see if he can cut out the turnovers.  Of the available guys like him, Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mitch Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton, Colt McCoy, blah blah blah, he'd probably be my pick, but again, he's probably coming in to compete with Allen for the starting job.  It's just that his ceiling is way higher.  If you're on the "no way" train for Winston, I can understand that and I wouldn't try and change your mind.  I just don't think ANY of the FAs are really starting material, so of all the "meh" I'd personally take the guy who threw 30 TDs and 5,000 yards 2 years ago and see if we can work on cutting the INTs down. 

 

I have a feeling Tyrod Taylor might be a guy they go after in a "gotta do something" capacity.  He checks a lot of the boxes: mobile, good leader, etc.  He just hasn't had a long track record of success.  

 

The complete "out of left field" solution would be if somehow, very quietly, Aaron freaking Rodgers wants out of GB because the Packers picked Jordan Love, and what with the continued playoff disappointments, wants a change of scenery.  I VERY VERY much doubt this would ever happen, but if it did, clearly that would be an avenue you'd have to explore.  I'd put this at .5% chance Rodgers plays for anybody next year other than the Packers. However, maybe Love has been lighting it up in practice, and they can get 2 firsts for Rodgers and build the defense and they think they can be ok? (If I were them, I wouldn't do that.  BUT this is the team that put Favre out to pasture when he WANTED to come back, so who really knows?) But that .5% exists, so it's at least worth a phone call to Wisconsin.  

[CapsSkins]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

I just don't see him as being a great QB. I've watched him play a bunch of time and while he puts up decent stats he just doesn't really ever look like a guy who is elevating his offense. 

 

Dunno. Either way, why would the Raiders trade him away anyway? The best they have behind him is Mariota, who sucks. And it's not like they have a top 5 pick to get one of the top QB prospects coming out. 

 

They're in cap trouble and rumors are Gruden really likes Mariota, so much so that he gave him a 2 yr / $10M deal, and that he wasn't quite so hot on Carr.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

36 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

I understood all that before. My point was Kiem was way over simplifying things. What Keim is missing (IMO rather purposely leaving out) is that he, nor any of us, know what Ron's plan is yet and that his plan at QB and for that WR may be better than what it would be with Stafford. So just becasue on the surface there is a perceived better QB situation somewhere right now does not mean it's the better situation for that WR depending on the teams overall plans and that includes what the offense will be and what part of it they will play in that offense. If they intend to go after a high priced FA they will surely explain that plan. Some may not want to trust him but others will. The benefit of Ron ios he has a great track record with players already. 

 

 

Sure.  Keim though wasn't saying things are just stuck the way they are.  That was from an exchange with a fan questioning about does it have an influence.

 

36 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

I know you like Kiem and do not dislike him as I think he typically more on it than most of the others. However, he still does things for clicks. It's a nice oversimplified sound byte that gets fans riled up to - Skins suck at QB so no FA would want to come here without getting way overpaid - which that is exactly what he is saying.  I believe that is incredibly over simplified for the reasons I stated above.  

 

 

 

i like Keim in part because he's rarely wrong and is responsive to fans when they ask him things.  That wasn't Keim putting out a tweet for the world to see but he was asked various things by fans directly and he responded to them.  Most don't catch that stuff because you won't find it as a direct tweet from Keim or in an article.  But every now and then I'll look at Keim's tweet exchanges with fans and those can be interesting.  That's what i was posting there.  

 

36 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

 

Not directed at you - we complain when they let things leak and then complain when we do not know every detail of what they are thinking and assume since we don't know they must be idiots and have no idea what they are doing. 

 

Landing Stafford or Watson was always a long shot. And honestly so is getting into the top 5 of the draft for one of the top QB prospects. So unless they go crazy we are looking at other options. But hey, maybe they throw the house at the Texans. I am Ok with that. But if not, Ok with that too. It is what it is. They can't just **** out a great QB lol   

 

There is always the continue to build the team and try again next year plan - NOT to be confused with the "we should fill all our many holes first" line of thinking. That is one that makes no sense. If you wait till you have the perfect roster you never pull the trigger on anything. When I say wait till next year, it's to see if conditions are more favorable and we get the type QB that we want. In the meantime we can continue to go about fixing the other holes we have. 

 

 

I agree with all of this.  Speaking for myself I like the leaks because it gives me some clue in what direction they might go in.

 

Rivera isn't perfect but I trust him and the powers that be to figure this out.  They don't have it easy.  they are picking 19 which is a crap position both from a trading for a veteran stand point and trading up in the draft stand point.  And typically franchise QBs don't hit the market whether via trade or FA.

 

So I strongly suspect the conversation here ultimately becomes about which FA we like the most.  Granted none of them are exciting or franchise types -- it just is what it is.

 

Part of me suspects that their willingness to be aggressive might manifest in an unexpected way.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, LetThePointsSoar said:

 

Huh?   If we move that kind of draft capital for anyone other than Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields, we'd be insane. That's Chicago Bears /Mitchell Trubisky territory. 

 

If that's the only option on the table, you stand pat and see what's there at #19. 

 

Zach Wilson is at least = Fields IMO. 

 

That being said, in order to GUARANTEE that we'd get one of those guys we'd have to trade into the top 3. From 19 to 3 would probably take two 1st round picks (additional 1sts, not including the one swapped), two 2nd round picks and maybe more. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

42 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

I don't see why people are down on Derek Carr. He had great stats and beat Mahomes for christ sake, almost twice this year! Only 27 yo. Why not try to pry him away from LV?  

He has had some REALLY REALLY bad games in some big spots.  And chucky doesn't love him.  So that gives you some reason for pause.  

[LetThePointsSoar]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

Zach Wilson is at least = Fields IMO. 

 

That being said, in order to GUARANTEE that we'd get one of those guys we'd have to trade into the top 3. From 19 to 3 would probably take two 1st round picks (additional 1sts, not including the one swapped), two 2nd round picks and maybe more. 

 

That's the beauty of draft speculation, but don't remotely agree. Zach Wilson has bust material written all over him. I think Fields ends up the best QB in the draft. 

 

And if that's what it takes to move into top 3, we have to walk. There's only one QB this offseason who's worth remotely that cost, and he resides currently in Houston. 

[CapsSkins]

3 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

He has had some REALLY REALLY bad games in some big spots.  And chucky doesn't love him.  So that gives you some reason for pause.  

 

Didn't know that about the big game thing. I saw him duel Mahomes this past year and hang in there till the very end. But your post makes him sound Kirk-like? That would be a concern (plus the fumbles), but idk man. I really liked watching him this year. 

[Darth Tater]

16 minutes ago, method man said:

 

Then you are getting a backup quality QB so no point...

It is more that if I am not confident enough in my eval skills to find a quality guy in the draft with a second, I cannot think that my ability to eval a guy is better than the guys who should know him best. A QB made available via trade is almost certainly not highly valued by his team. With a few exceptions, a QB being traded is not who we think he is assuming we are talking about a top tier guy.

[Skinsinparadise]

23 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Its not like I'm calling Ron incompetent, I'm just stating a difference of opinion. If Ron thought so low of Heinicke why wasn't he on a roster all year? Dude played well enough to be on a roster. Just look at what Dallas and Denver put on the field at QB this year. Its the same argument I had with Bibbs vs Marshall? Bibbs gets benched and Marshall misses a block and our QB goes down for 2 years. Its obvious that Heinicke can play but I do think that Ron undervalued him and I think he's continuing to do that if he trades for one of these mediocre QBs who has a ceiling of being the 16th best QB in the league. 

 

OK if I am adding that thought and you thinking Rivera totally blew it on how he handled Haskins -- tough for me to have a take away that you think much of Rivera's judgment.  And i can't help remember how you defended almost everything Bruce did where you gave him the benefit of the doubt on just about everything for years.  So when I juxtapose your old thoughts on Bruce versus your new ones on Rivera you come off as having a different standard for both. 

 

But if you are saying otherwise and you do trust Rivera then OK.  I guess for me my threshold for trusting him runs much higher than it does for you.   If i personally thought I could judge Heinicke better from my couch in 1.25 games than Rivera who has had him for years and also thought that Rivera couldn't judge Haskins better than I could no matter how many practices he watched and how many opportunities he could observe his habits -- then at least for me I'd want Rivera gone because if I trusted my observation habits from my couch that much more than Rivera could then I'd want the dude gone.  

 

 For me, even if Rivera did the one thing I've trashed on this thread the most which is trading for Darnold, i'd ride with it and just believe he sees something that I don't in him.  I'd let it play out at least.   But that's me. To each their own.  😀

[KillBill26]

32 minutes ago, mistertim said:

I'm completely uninterested in bargain bin stuff like Tyrod Taylor, Mariota, etc. Just no point. If you're thinking that low then you might as well just roll with Allen/heinicke and play whichever is healthiest on a week to week basis.

I understand TT and MM are pretty underwhelming choices.  But the reason I'm now hoping for that is bc I don't have faith that the return on the other options will be worth the cost.  And worst case scenario is we give up significant resources where we can't plug other holes, and then if the qb doesn't pan out, we took major steps backwards.   

 

I guess what I'm saying is, I was all about being aggressive towards stafford, but now if the other options command the expected price tag, I'd rather not be aggressive this offseason.  Let's have a full draft and add a key piece or two in free agency, and look to the 2022 draft.  I just don't like the second tier qbs in this draft, and the other FA/trade options are too costly (dak notwithstanding, but JJ isn't letting him walk).

 

Sometimes inaction is the best action.

 

And while I don't think we should sit back and declare TH the savior, I do want to see what he provides over a whole season before I overpay for another option this offseason.

Edited January 31, 2021 by KillBill26

[method man]

3 minutes ago, LetThePointsSoar said:

 

That's the beauty of draft speculation, but don't remotely agree. Zach Wilson has bust material written all over him. I think Fields ends up the best QB in the draft. 

 

And if that's what it takes to move into top 3, we have to walk. There's only one QB this offseason who's worth remotely that cost, and he resides currently in Houston. 

 

I personally believe it is the other way around and Wilson is my QB2 as I don't trust FIelds's ability to read the field at the pro level

[goskins10]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

He has had some REALLY REALLY bad games in some big spots.  And chucky doesn't love him.  So that gives you some reason for pause.  

 

I agree sort of. The fact that Gruden does not like him is not a problem for me. He has yet to have a QB he likes, even in Tampa he went through them like crazy. Here are his QBs - keep in mind he inherited Brad Johnson who should have still been a Redskin!: He replaced him with Brian Griese and then replaced Griese with SImms and then replaced Simms with Garcia! Dude is never happy with QBs. 

 

But I do agree Carr throws up some very bad games but if he could be had relatively inexpensive it might be worth a try. We could do worse.