Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[CapsSkins]

Just now, -JB- said:

Look at Kirk Cousins stats and tell me he doesn’t fold in crunch time.  Is this a joke?

 

If you say Carr has a choking problem, that's a different story. But you cited a team win-loss record, which doesn't indicate anything about choking.

[Skinsinparadise]

https://www.raidersbeat.com/clutch-quarterbacks-stats-say-derek-carr-is-among-the-best/

No QB in the history of the NFL has more fourth-quarter comebacks through their first five seasons than Derek Carr. And since entering the league in 2014, Carr is tied for first among all QBs in fourth-quarter comebacks and ranks third in game-winning drives during the same time span. In 2016, he notched seven game-winning drives, which was good for second-best in NFL history for a single season.

That’s all impressive, but I wanted to dig even deeper. What do the analytics say about the Raider gunslinger when the game is on the line?

For that answer, I reached out to my friend Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle), a Senior Content/Strategy Analyst over at Pro Football Focus.

Per Austin, among the 25 Quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks in the 4th Quarter/Overtime with the game within one possession (8 points) since 2014, Derek Carr ranks:

7th in PFF passing grade (82.8)

7th in adjusted completion percentage (77.8%)

 

https://justblogbaby.com/2020/09/15/raiders-derek-carr-clutch/

The Las Vegas Raiders needed a late drive to win the game against the Carolina Panthers and QB Derek Carr came through once again

In one of the more exciting games of Week 1, the Las Vegas Raiders outlasted the Carolina Panthers thanks to some late game heroics on both sides of the ball. It was a game that featured seven lead changes and it seemed for a while that whoever had the ball last would be the team that wins the game.

After leading in the third quarter by two scores, the Raiders suddenly found themselves down three points to the Panthers with just over eight minutes left in the game. They needed a statement drive from the offense that would put their noses back in front and put the pressure back on Carolina.

This was a situation that Derek Carr and the Raiders have been in many times in his career and as we have come to expect from the veteran quarterback, he delivered when the pressure was on with a surgical drive to take the lead for good.

 

 

[CapsSkins]

@Skinsinparadise that doesn't sound like Kurt Cousins to me at all!

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

@Skinsinparadise that doesn't sound like Kurt Cousins to me at all!

 

lol, I know you say you don't like Kirk.  That's cool.  I met Kirk multiple times, my kids did his Qb camp, IMO he's a super nice guy.  😀  I think he's a good but not great QB.  I got two beefs with Kirk as a player:   A.  he's not clutch.  B.  he's streaky.  When he's hot he's red hot, when he's cold he's frigid cold.  He oddly starts every season cold.    But I agree with you this roster wins 10 games with Kirk.

 

The deeper I dive tonight into Carr, the more I like him.  I really had no idea what his PFF score was until I looked it up.  I didn't know if he was clutch or not until I googled it.  But yeah at least on the surface if he puts up Kirk like numbers and unlike Kirk he is clutch too, sign me up. 

 

I can give a rats behind about a QB's W-L record if there is context behind it.  The Raiders had a top 10 offense and was a bottom feeder defense.  8-8 sounds about right to me.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

lol, I know you say you don't like Kirk.  That's cool.  I met Kirk multiple times, my kids did his Qb camp, IMO he's a super nice guy.  😀  I think he's a good but not great QB.  I got two beefs with Kirk as a player:   A.  he's not clutch.  B.  he's streaky.  When he's hot he's red hot, when he's cold he's frigid cold.  He oddly starts every season cold.    But I agree with you this roster wins 10 games with Kirk.

 

The deeper I dive tonight into Carr, the more I like him.  I really had no idea what his PFF score was until I looked it up.  I didn't know if he was clutch or not until I googled it.  But yeah at least on the surface if he puts up Kirk like numbers and unlike Kirk he is clutch too, sign me up. 

 

I can give a rats behind about a QB's W-L record if there is context behind it.  The Raiders had a top 10 offense and was a bottom feeder defense.  8-8 sounds about right to me.

 

Yeah I think Kirk's a prick but I readily admit I've never met him, don't know him personally at all, and could be wrong lol. He just always rubbed me the wrong way, even before the contract drama. 

 

But that entirely aside, he chokes and that's a problem. We're well aware of Kirk's propensity to pad stats in garbage time after games were well out of reach. That to me would be an important caveat to a QBs stats, but it doesn't seem like that's the story with Carr. And btw, if Kirk were on this team now, we'd be in a pretty good position and I can freely admit that while not liking the dude.

[goskins10]

16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

https://www.raidersbeat.com/clutch-quarterbacks-stats-say-derek-carr-is-among-the-best/

No QB in the history of the NFL has more fourth-quarter comebacks through their first five seasons than Derek Carr. And since entering the league in 2014, Carr is tied for first among all QBs in fourth-quarter comebacks and ranks third in game-winning drives during the same time span. In 2016, he notched seven game-winning drives, which was good for second-best in NFL history for a single season.

That’s all impressive, but I wanted to dig even deeper. What do the analytics say about the Raider gunslinger when the game is on the line?

For that answer, I reached out to my friend Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle), a Senior Content/Strategy Analyst over at Pro Football Focus.

Per Austin, among the 25 Quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks in the 4th Quarter/Overtime with the game within one possession (8 points) since 2014, Derek Carr ranks:

7th in PFF passing grade (82.8)

7th in adjusted completion percentage (77.8%)

 

https://justblogbaby.com/2020/09/15/raiders-derek-carr-clutch/

The Las Vegas Raiders needed a late drive to win the game against the Carolina Panthers and QB Derek Carr came through once again

In one of the more exciting games of Week 1, the Las Vegas Raiders outlasted the Carolina Panthers thanks to some late game heroics on both sides of the ball. It was a game that featured seven lead changes and it seemed for a while that whoever had the ball last would be the team that wins the game.

After leading in the third quarter by two scores, the Raiders suddenly found themselves down three points to the Panthers with just over eight minutes left in the game. They needed a statement drive from the offense that would put their noses back in front and put the pressure back on Carolina.

This was a situation that Derek Carr and the Raiders have been in many times in his career and as we have come to expect from the veteran quarterback, he delivered when the pressure was on with a surgical drive to take the lead for good.

 

 

 

 

Interesting you bring up 4th Q comebacks - That was one of the things I liked best about Stafford. So I just looked at Carr - 

 

He is 10th among active QBs in career 4Q comebacks with 21. He is tied for 26th all time. Not to bad in 5 yrs. And for those who will says it's becasue they are behind all the time, he is also 8th in % comebacks vs. opportunities among active players. 

 

Not saying that makes him a lock but as I said before, for the right price I would be good with giving him a try. If nothing else he is young enough that he provides some stability at the position while you build around him and find the long term solution. And who knows, maybe he surprises you. He has grown tremendously under Gruden. If he continues to get better, who knows how good he can be. 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by goskins10

[mistertim]

If Carr is so good I'm still confused as to why Gruden would trade him. Does he really just not like the guy? Does he really just love Mariota? Does he secretly just love losing?

[PartyPosse]

1 hour ago, Mooka said:

 

Have to trade for him though. 

 

Would you give the 19th pick? 

No, The hope is Raiders draft another QB in the first and either cut him or trade him for a third day pick. I would however trade Carr and their second round pick for #19

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Yeah I think Kirk's a prick but I readily admit I've never met him, don't know him personally at all, and could be wrong lol. He just always rubbed me the wrong way, even before the contract drama. 

 

 

I like anyone who is cool to my kids and Kirk has been multiple times in different settings.  And more so than the typical WFT player.

 

I wasn't a Haskins guy before the draft or when he was here but i have to say he's another dude who is super nice to kids but granted it was really just a few small samples with him. 

 

Kerrigan is super nice.  Norman, too. 

[goskins10]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

If Carr is so good I'm still confused as to why Gruden would trade him. Does he really just not like the guy? Does he really just love Mariota? Does he secretly just love losing?

 

He has been very hot and cold on him and in general has never been happy with QB play anywhere. I showed where in Tampa he went through a lot of QBs. He is just never happy. And Derek has taken a lot of heat from him. He has progressed greatly so he may have turned the tide with Gruden but most of their time there together Gruden has not exactly been complimentary. 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

If Carr is so good I'm still confused as to why Gruden would trade him. Does he really just not like the guy? Does he really just love Mariota? Does he secretly just love losing?

 

lol, yeah we haven't seen anything about him being on the trade market.  Only thing we got is the Junkies saying they have a source at the club who tells them they like Carr.  And Jon Gruden tends to be impatient with his QBs where he's never quite happy.

 

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like anyone who is cool to my kids and Kirk has been multiple times in different settings.  And more so than the typical WFT player.

 

I wasn't a Haskins guy before the draft or when he was here but i have to say he's another dude who is super nice to kids but granted it was really just a few small samples with him. 

 

Kerrigan is super nice.  Norman, too. 

 

Haskins seemed super immature plus selfish/arrogant, but not necessarily a dick to be around. 

 

Can definitely see Kerrigan and Norman being great guys.

[Blanka]

I believe some of it with Gruden is ego. He was one of the original offensive gurus his first run in Oakland. Since then between Tampa and Oak/LV 2.0 he hasn’t been lauded on that side of the ball. 

 

He probably looks at young guys like McVay & Kyle, even Andy Reid a contemporary get all the pub and feels he’s better or as good. & it’s the QB’s who are holding his “genius” back. I can be off but that’s just the sense I get.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Listening to Keim's new podcast which just came out.  Some items:

 

A.  They still think options likely will arise at QB that can help 

B.  He thinks Alex wants to come back

C.  If Alex comes back they need to figure out if they trust his health as for retaining him

D.  if they can't find a QB, then Alex might come in play, they like him as a mentor type to the younger guys 

E.  if they can't land a veteran QB, he doubts they take a Qb at 19

F.  They are supposed to meet this week to talk over personnel including QB

G.  Doesn't think Watson becomes available but if he does they'd be interested and they'd aggressively chase him

H.  If Watson does hit the trade market, he doesn't think they'd be shy about giving up picks considering the youth that already exists on the roster

I.  Roster is in better shape now than it was in 2012 when they made the RG3 trade

 

[dyst]

17 minutes ago, mistertim said:

If Carr is so good I'm still confused as to why Gruden would trade him.

If he were elite, there wouldn’t be any rumblings of the Raiders wanting to move on from him. However that doesn’t mean he isn’t at the very least a good one. As it stands, he would be better than what we currently have. An injured Alex Smith, a backup Kyle Smith and a nobody in Heineke. It’s not super confusing why the Raiders would want to move and and at the same time, why he would be an upgrade foe the WFT.

[CommandB11]

25 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

No, The hope is Raiders draft another QB in the first and either cut him or trade him for a third day pick. I would however trade Carr and their second round pick for #19

How about #19, 2nd and one of the 3rds for Carr, Waller, and Ruggs?

[Commander -JB-]

1 hour ago, CapsSkins said:

 

If you say Carr has a choking problem, that's a different story. But you cited a team win-loss record, which doesn't indicate anything about choking.

So 47-63 means nothing to you?  You think a 47-63 career QB can come to this **** organization and make magic?  Lmao 

[Rufus T Firefly]

3 minutes ago, panahoo said:

How about #19, 2nd and one of the 3rds for Carr, Waller, and Ruggs?

Would they do that deal even without Carr in it? I'd guess no.

[Conn]

Do people in here not realize that if we don’t figure out our QB situation for real for 3-4 years, this defense is done? It doesn’t matter that we aren’t fully ready and stacked all over. This IS our window, this defense has room to improve for a year or two but it’s extremely unlikely we can keep it together once it peaks. Teams just aren’t able to consistently do that anymore. The Legion of Boom was good for about a three year window, same with most of the really good Ravens and Steelers defenses over the years—they ebb and flow every few years into the type of units that can carry a team, and if the QB play matches up with those windows, they go far those years. The reality is that MOST teams that build a good young defense but don’t have the talent at QB fall apart long before they get the offense figured out. Look at Jacksonville a couple years ago. 
 

Rivera has his finger on the pulse WAY more than some of you guys who are willing to purposely throw away yet another year of this young talent on a journeyman type QB—he knows that this IS our window even if it’s not perfect. The NFCE is a joke, the NFC overall is weak compared to the AFC, and there’s lots of potential QB movement. We missed on our first shot. Anyone who actually wants a chance to win better hope we don’t miss on our next shot, because I guarantee Rivera is not nearly as weirdly optimistic about the Smith/Hienecke/Allen trio as some of you are. That’s throwing away a prime season while the young talent on this team is still all together. 

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, -JB- said:

So 47-63 means nothing to you?  You think a 47-63 career QB can come to this **** organization and make magic?  Lmao 

 

Carr doesn't need to make magic. We have a great young core and resources to add pieces. Correct that 47-63 means mostly nothing to me without context. Matt Stafford is 74-90-1. That's essentially the same win %. A great player on a bad team will have a bad win %. 

[Commander -JB-]

4 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Carr doesn't need to make magic. We have a great young core and resources to add pieces. Correct that 47-63 means mostly nothing to me without context. Matt Stafford is 74-90-1. That's essentially the same win %. A great player on a bad team will have a bad win %. 

Exactly why I wouldn’t have traded assets to acquire Stafford as well.

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, -JB- said:

Exactly why I wouldn’t have traded assets to acquire Stafford as well.

 

Alex Smith is 99-68-1 and went 5-1 this year, vs. Stafford who went 5-11. Are you saying Alex Smith is a better option than Matt Stafford? Bc if so, we are so miles apart in our thinking that it doesn't make sense to continue discussing.  

[bowhunter]

14 minutes ago, -JB- said:

So 47-63 means nothing to you?  You think a 47-63 career QB can come to this **** organization and make magic?  Lmao 

Whats Watsons record?

[RWJ]

Again, I'm hoping a 1st and 3rd this year would seal a deal for Carr.  

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, bowhunter said:

Whats Watsons record?

 

28-25. A very pedestrian 53%. He's basically just another Mark Brunell, who went 78-73 (51%)!