BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[No Excuses]

6 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

THIS IS SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL FACT,  

 

 

 

THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE SHOWING SYMPTOMS AND NOT GETTING TESTED WORLWIDE. There is very little evidence that there is a large quantity of people who remain asymptomatic after contracting the virus.

 

Please stop talking out of your ass. This is the WHO lead on this very issue:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html

 

Quote

 

There’s this big panic in the West over asymptomatic cases. Many people are asymptomatic when tested, but develop symptoms within a day or two.

 

In Guangdong, they went back and retested 320,000 samples originally taken for influenza surveillance and other screening. Less than 0.5 percent came up positive, which is about the same number as the 1,500 known Covid cases in the province. (Covid-19 is the medical name of the illness caused by the coronavirus.)

There is no evidence that we’re seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What we’re seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground.

 

Once we can test antibodies in a bunch of people, maybe I’ll be saying, “Guess what? Those data didn’t tell us the story.” But the data we have now don’t support it.

 

 

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by No Excuses

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

I’m loading up on hand lotion. You know, in case I have to self-quarantine.

[Larry]

13 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

Yes, it can indeed be ten times worse in the US if we don't get it together very quickly.

 

Could you please provide support for your claim that the progression of this disease, among the general US population as a whole, can be 10 times worse than it is withn the quarantine of the most infected place currently on Earth?  

Edited March 9, 2020 by Larry

[Xameil]

1 minute ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I’m loading up on hand lotion. You know, in case I have to self-quarantine.

Just make sure for that its hand lotion and not sanitizer..because for your type of self quarantine...sanitizer might burn 

[No Excuses]

Just now, Larry said:

 

Could you please provide support for your claim that the progression of this disease among the general US population, as a whole can be 10 times worse than it is withn the quarantine of the most infected place currently on Earth?  

 

......

 

Just please read this for your own sake: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html

 

What China has done is not even remotely close to what we are doing to control this thing at the moment. If you can't understand this, then I don't know what to say to you. Yes, if we don't start aggressively testing like they did in China, and they did in South Korea, it will get much, much, much worse in the US. You are being so ****ing dense, which you have a tendency to do, but it's kind of infuriating right now because you're also spreading bull**** about a very serious issue, intentionally.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

25 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

zero. And it’s none of your business what my spending habits are. Are you being purposely naive? The recommendation is to use some in this outbreak. People are getting gouged on eBay. I post a method for members of this board to get it at regular price and you complain with nonsense. What’s wrong with you?

Are you old? Are you a high risk person? 
 

The average person is at almost no risk of serious complications from the corona virus even if they get it. 
 

 

if everyone who was buying zero now buys ten there won’t be enough supply for people who are high risk, for people who get the common flu, etc. sure buy one or two even though you probably don’t even need that.

 

Ten is excessive and puts the supply for people who really need it.  You do you, just think about it.

 

if 100 people buy one we need 100. If 100 people buy 10 we need 1000. The problem is exponential.

The biggest effect of the corona virus is fear. Not the virus itself. Fear can do way more damage than any virus can.

[No Excuses]

6 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

The average person is at almost no risk of serious complications from the corona virus even if they get it. 

 

Also not entirely accurate. Close to 20% of the cases are severe and the data seems to show that a much broader age range than the flu is in play.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-on-face-the-nation-march-8-2020/

 

Quote

 

DR. GOTTLIEB: No, this is not the flu. China didn't shut down their economy because they had a bad flu season. The case fatality rate here is going to be higher all through the age ranges. This is a more severe disease. Now, it's true that- that you don't see the full spectrum of disease that you see with the flu where some people get a mild disease, some people get a moderate disease, some people get more severe disease. Here you're seeing a- a more binary response. Some people get a mild, moderate disease and some people get very sick. But for the people who get very sick, this could be a very dangerous disease. The case fatality rate is probably going to be about 1 percent. And it's not just older Americans, as tragic as that is. And we shouldn't dismiss the burden that this is going to place on older Americans. If you look at 40 year-olds, the case fatality rate has been anywhere between point two and point four percent. So that means as many as one in 250 40 to 50-year-olds who get this could die from it.

 

 

It is also worth noting that the average person in the US is a lot unhealthier than their counterparts in the other developed nations, so we are likely to see much worse outcomes here.

Edited March 9, 2020 by No Excuses

[redskins59]

A better comparison for the United States would be Italy. China is authoritarian, so I don't think that's a good comparison. They can do things that we can't do.

[Cooked Crack]

 

 

This dude was a dentist. GTFOH.

[Springfield]

I mean, it’s absurd to believe that either (a) we can quarantine anything in the US more than voluntarily or (b) compel people to get tested for symptoms similar to a chest cold.

[SoCalSkins]

15 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Are you old? Are you a high risk person? 
 

The average person is at almost no risk of serious complications from the corona virus even if they get it. 
 

 

if everyone who was buying zero now buys ten there won’t be enough supply for people who are high risk, for people who get the common flu, etc. sure buy one or two even though you probably don’t even need that.

 

Ten is excessive and puts the supply for people who really need it.  You do you, just think about it.

 

if 100 people buy one we need 100. If 100 people buy 10 we need 1000. The problem is exponential.

The biggest effect of the corona virus is fear. Not the virus itself. Fear can do way more damage than any virus can.

I could have easily bought 500 and resold them on eBay. I was proving a public service announcement for members of this board to get them at regular prices. I don’t give a damn if you think 10 is excessive. 

[No Excuses]

I normally don't try to be alarmist about things like this and I don't want to spook anyone here. But as a scientist, this is also a time I think more of us in our community need to be speaking out about what the **** is going down here in the US because it is embarrassing at worst and grossly negligent and incredibly dangerous at worst.

 

This morning, Mayor Bowser held a press conference about the first DC case, who is a pastor at a Georgetown church. He came into contact with at least 500 people over a one week period while he was infected with COVID-19. And you know what we are doing? Asking those people to self-quarantine. We aren't testing them aggressively to get ahead of this. We are just asking that they self-quarantine.

 

China or South Korea, all 500 people would have been tested by the end of the day most likely. I believe Virginia has the capacity to test a total of 500-1000 suspected cases right now and Maryland has 2000. I am reading reports online that labs with testing kits are running out of reagents used in these kits and online vendors are increasingly selling out of their stocks as well. You can't run an RT-PCR if you don't have the reagents, even if you have the primers. This is just not being done fast enough at a scale that we can hope to replicate the containment taking place in China or South Korea. This is alarming, coming from a large scale vendor that we frequently used to order lab reagents from:

 

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by No Excuses

[tshile]

6 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

We aren't testing them aggressively to get ahead of this. We are just asking that they self-quarantine.

Are you up on numbers of test kits available?

cause my state has like 75 of them. 
 

so demanding 500 people be tested because a pastor had it would be completely not doable here at the moment. 
 

im assuming many other states (and DC) are facing similar constraints but I don’t actually know. 

8 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

I believe Virginia has the capacity to test a total of 500-1000 suspected cases right now and Maryland has 2000.

Derp, didn’t read whole post. 
 

those are not the numbers I was given from the health department but I’m not against the idea the numbers I was given were wrong 

[redskinss]

I understand the hoarding of sanitizer and canned goods and what not, ( I'm not doing it but I understand the fear ) but toilet paper?

If this thing gets so bad that it threatens the global supply of toilet paper, we're gonna have much bigger problems than having to wipe our asses with a face cloth.

[HOF44]

1 minute ago, tshile said:

Are you up on numbers of test kits available?

cause my state has like 75 of them. 
 

so demanding 500 people be tested because a pastor had it would be completely not doable here at the moment. 
 

im assuming many other states (and DC) are facing similar constraints but I don’t actually know. 

Derp, didn’t read whole post. 
 

those are not the numbers I was given from the health department but I’m not against the idea the numbers I was given were wrong 

My friend at NIH said to me last Thursday that the USA had 75,000 tests available for the entire country.  He said the million the politicians are talking about are a minimum of a month or two away.  

[Larry]

18 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

Just please read this for your own sake: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html

 

I'm not an NYT subscriber.  

 

But I'm willing to bet that you cannot quote a single thing from that article that says "the actions of the Chinese government has caused the number of people within Hubei to get the disease to be reduced by 90%".  

 

But if you can quote it, I'll read it.  

 

Or, I think maybe I can explain my point better.  

 

Pick a place.  A building, a city, a cruise ship.  Some sample of people.  

 

There's 10,000 people.  

We test 1,000 of them for the disease.  

200 of them test positive.  

10 of them require hospitalization.

2 of them die.  

 

Yes, those numbers are completely made up.  Feel free to change any of them you want.  

 

You want to claim that there weren't really 200 people infected, it was really five times that?  Knock yourself out.  

 

What you can't do, is claim that there aren't really 10 people in the hospital, there's really 100. 

 

It's absolutely possible that there are infected people that didn't get counted in the statistics.  The "number of infected" could easily be vastly different.  (If fact, I'd say that it's obvious that it's really larger.)  

 

But if you want to claim that there's really 20 dead people here, and we're accidentally counting 18 of them as alive?  Gonna have to back that one up.  

 

If you change the "number of infected" from 20 to 1,000, eight corpses do not magically appear in the morgue.  What happens is, the ratio of "infected per population" increases by a factor of five.  But the ratio of "dead per infected" gets reduced by an identical factor.  (Unless you invent dead people).  

 

 

 

 

[tshile]

Just now, HOF44 said:

My friend at NIH said to me last Thursday that the USA had 75,000 tests available for the entire country.  He said the million the politicians are talking about are a minimum of a month or two away.  

You should ask your friend what’s going on over there today

 

 

[No Excuses]

6 minutes ago, Larry said:

But I'm willing to bet that you cannot quote a single thing from that article that says "the actions of the Chinese government has caused the number of people within Hubei to get the disease to be reduced by 90%".  

 

1. As usual, you are 100% wrong, because the gist of the interview with the WHO lead on this is exactly what you say "I can't quote a single thing about". You should look for other sources on how China curbed the spread of this disease and how incredible it truly is. I mean take the hint, the god damn title of the article is "Inside China’s All-Out War on the Coronavirus".

 

2. A NYT digital subscription is $4 a month. If you were being less of a jackass, I would have quoted you the relevant portions. But now, I'm just going to tell you that there is a cost to being woefully ignorant and perhaps a monthly investment of $4 is worth your time to not spread bull****.

 

Bye Felicia.

Edited March 9, 2020 by No Excuses

[Mr. Sinister]

21 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said:

 

 

This dude was a dentist. GTFOH.

 

I find it interesting that he chose medieval-ancient warfare too. Like, those were some of the worst ways a human being could possibly die. 

[Llevron]

41 minutes ago, Xameil said:

Just make sure for that its hand lotion and not sanitizer..because for your type of self quarantine...sanitizer might burn 

please don’t give him ideas lol

[Renegade7]

 

[HOF44]

6 minutes ago, tshile said:

You should ask your friend what’s going on over there today

 

 

Think I'll quit bugging him a little.  Last time he let me know Trump was on campus.  The best thing ever is for the admin leadership mostly all 65 and over would contract this ****.   Karma coming home I'd say.  

[tshile]

I believe that was a concern I highlighted at the start

 

best thing we can do is make testing more widely available and away from hospitals. Save the hospitals for people that need it. And not spread it all around in a vulnerable area. 

[Fergasun]

1 minute ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

I find it interesting that he chose medieval-ancient warfare too. Like, those were some of the worst ways a human being could possibly die. 

Looks like a screenshot from the Korean Drama "Jumong"..... set in the time period of 0 AD. 

 

Your point stands. 

[Larry]

3 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

As usual, you are 100% wrong,

 

Since I was "100% wrong" about my request that you please quote something, I guess that means that there's a 100% chance that there's an invisible quote somewhere in your post?