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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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If anyone is looking to buy hand sanitizer at regular prices, you can get text alerts from nowinstock.net I used them frequently for hard to get electronics but they also started tracking hand sanitizer stock. Make sure you enable text alerts, email takes too long.
 

You also need 1 click buying setup in Amazon. Once you get the text you have to react fast. Sells out in minutes but I was able to get a bunch over the last couple of days.

 

 

Edited by SoCalSkins
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I have enough food prepared for the month. I don't plan on going anywhere. I worry about my daughter working in a grocery store. She's management, which lowers her risk of exposure; however, it's a public place with lots of coming and going and she interacts with her crew who interact with the public and vendors. 

Edited by LadySkinsFan
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7 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

 

it is very irresponsible to buy up a **** ton of hand sanitizer... 

 

I didn’t buy a ton. 10 regular sized bottles. If I was hoarding them I wouldn’t be posting about how to get them. The opposite actually.

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I'm a university professor interacting with 100s of people a day. I have underlying health issues. Unfortunately, I just expect to get Covid-19 coronavirus at some point regardless of preventive habits and caution. Crossing fingers that I win the % lottery.

 

Sad but true.

 

Dr. Joe

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1 hour ago, Larry said:

Increase those numbers to equal the US population, and your "moderate outbreak will require 200K ICU beds" equals 2 ICU beds for every single person who currently tests positive for the virus.  (Or one ICU bed for every two people who have ever tested positive.)  


Current WHO data shows that anywhere from 15-20% of cases require intensive care. 

So a moderate outbreak of 1M people will need 200,000 ICU beds countrywide. And that isn’t considering just typical ICU use and how overburdened the system can get very quickly. Like bcl05 said, how fast or slow this spreads will determine if this can be handled or if it overburdens healthcare facilities. 
 

China was headed for disaster had they not built literally new hospitals overnight. Whether you think we can construct new medical facilities within two weeks like them to deal with a rapidly growing epidemic is entirely dependent on how much faith you have in our public health system.

Edited by No Excuses
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I'm interacting with the public al the time in my work.  Between them and fellow employees,(some wouldn't get tested if they caught it I'm sure),so in this case,the gloves come on. All the time. I'm hoping that 40+ years without a spleen has given my body a chance to adapt but the risk of pneumonia is very there even though I'm below,(presently anyway),the age threshold for very high risk.  Fittingly enough,considering where I live these days,I'm rolling the dice. I do worry about the older members of my family though,(3 live in Vegas). Locally,the Washoe County Health Office has set up a drive thru Coronavirus testing location but there's some fine print involved and for me,(playing the guessing game here I know),that's a bit telling.  "This is not open to the public, this is only for those who have done a risk assessment with the Washoe County Health District."  If what I'm hearing is true,then part of that risk assessment is asking whether the potential patient has traveled to a foreign country or not. If so,than more than likely tested. If not,no test. Interesting since as of now,the most recent person to test positive for Coronavirus reportedly only went to Santa Clara and back. Sigh. 

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4 minutes ago, No Excuses said:


Current WHO data shows that anywhere from 15-20% of cases require intensive care. 

So a moderate outbreak of 1M people will need 200,000 ICU beds countrywide. 

 

1)  Seriously?  20% require ICU?  I'm not even sure if 20% of heart attacks require ICU.  (Although I confess, I don't know.)  

 

2)  And your definition of "moderate outbreak" seems to be 1 person out of 300 infected (simultaneously.)  Take that ratio and apply it to Hubei's population of 58M, and you get 190K currently infected.  Which is 10 times as many as they currently show.  You trying to tell us that the number of people infected in Wuhan needs to increase tenfold, to get to what you call "moderate"?  

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6 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

1)  Seriously?  20% require ICU?  I'm not even sure if 20% of heart attacks require ICU.  (Although I confess, I don't know.)  

 

2)  And your definition of "moderate outbreak" seems to be 1 person out of 300 infected (simultaneously.)  Take that ratio and apply it to Hubei's population of 58M, and you get 190K currently infected.  Which is 10 times as many as they currently show.  You trying to tell us that the number of people infected in Wuhan needs to increase tenfold, to get to what you call "moderate"?  


China, specifically Hubei, has contained there outbreak through very aggressive testing and a borderline draconian quarantine. What they pulled off in Hubei is borderline miraculous. 
 

The current state of affairs in America is headed for a much worse outcome if things don’t change quickly. 
 

Edited by No Excuses
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27 minutes ago, PCS said:

 All the time. I'm hoping that 40+ years without a spleen has given my body a chance to adapt but the risk of pneumonia is very there even though I'm below,(presently anyway),the age threshold for very high risk.

Hope you up to date with all your vaccines. Seems to be one of the only things you can control.

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36 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:


 

how many do you normally buy?


zero. And it’s none of your business what my spending habits are. Are you being purposely naive? The recommendation is to use some in this outbreak. People are getting gouged on eBay. I post a method for members of this board to get it at regular price and you complain with nonsense. What’s wrong with you?

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7 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

China, specifically Hubei, has contained there outbreak through very aggressive testing and a borderline draconian quarantine. What they pulled off in Hubei is borderline miraculous. 

 

So yes, you're predicting that the impact on the US will be ten times worse than the current conditions inside the quarantine of the most infected place on Earth.  

 

Or let's look at another "petri dish".  

 

The Diamond Princess cruise ship appears to have 2,400 passengers and 1,100 crew.  21 people have tested positive for the virus.  That's 1 person out of 166.  Which seems to fit your standard of "moderate outbreak"

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8 minutes ago, Larry said:

The Diamond Princess cruise ship appears to have 2,400 passengers and 1,100 crew.  21 people have tested positive for the virus.  That's 1 person out of 166.  Which seems to fit your standard of "moderate outbreak"

That’s because they only tested something like 100 of them.

Edited by AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy
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3 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

So yes, you're predicting that the impact on the US will be ten times worse than the current conditions inside the quarantine of the most infected place on Earth.  

 

Or let's look at another "petri dish".  

 

The Diamond Princess cruise ship appears to have 2,400 passengers and 1,100 crew.  21 people have tested positive for the virus.  That's 1 person out of 166.  Which seems to fit your standard of "moderate outbreak"

 

I know you aren't this dense. The situation we are facing is uncontrollable community spread because testing isn't happening fast enough.

 

Extremely aggressive testing happened in China at a scale we aren't even replicating at 1/50th of the scale. Yes, it can indeed be ten times worse in the US if we don't get it together very quickly. No, this isn't alarmist . For the past 48 years, public health officials throughout the country are sounding these alarm bells, that perhaps dense people like you should listen into.

 

How in the world you think a cruise ship is analogous to people spreading the virus unknowingly in their community is beyond me. You are just talking out of your ass now. I strongly suggest you read information coming out of the WHO before responding to this, because you sound grossly ill-informed.

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Just now, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

That’s because they only tested something like 100 of them.

 

But if we assume that "well, the real number of infected is 20 times as many as the known cases", then that also means that "well, the number of infections that show any symptoms at all is 1/20th of what we currently know".  

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Just now, Larry said:

 

But if we assume that "well, the real number of infected is 20 times as many as the known cases", then that also means that "well, the number of infections that show any symptoms at all is 1/20th of what we currently know".  

 

THIS IS NOT TRUE. My god, read what is coming out of the WHO before you make such statements.

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2 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

How in the world you think a cruise ship is analogous to people spreading the virus unknowingly in their community is beyond me.

 

Never said it was analogous.  Pointed out that your estimate of infection in the general public is 20 times worse than it was in the confined environment of a cruise ship.  

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1 minute ago, Larry said:

 

But if we assume that "well, the real number of infected is 20 times as many as the known cases", then that also means that "well, the number of infections that show any symptoms at all is 1/20th of what we currently know".  

 

Well... there are a lot of patients out there with symptoms who are not getting tested.  The "criteria" for testing has been extremely narrow and restrictive, and is a significant contributor to the lack of good data currently available for US infections.  The data from other countries is currently of a much higher quality, at least according to the experts at my institution.

 

I think the correct amount of worry is somewhere between the two of you... 

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