tshile Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Just now, HOF44 said: Think I'll quit bugging him a little. Last time he let me know Trump was on campus. The best thing ever is for the admin leadership mostly all 65 and over would contract this ****. Karma coming home I'd say. yeah and last time I said something it was wrong - it was the info being dispensed at the time but it was wrong today there’s supposedly a hazmat suite parade lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, tshile said: those are not the numbers I was given from the health department but I’m not against the idea the numbers I was given were wrong A single kit can test multiple people, so the numbers probably aren't off. The VA and MD numbers are from Washington Post's morning reports on the new case in DC. 1 minute ago, Larry said: Since I was "100% wrong" about my request that you please quote something, I guess that means that there's a 100% chance that there's an invisible quote somewhere in your post? Will cost you $4 to read and open it. I've given you the sources you need to get a better grasp of what is going on. And your response is, without any backing, to say that in this source "you are willing to bet that nothing supports No Excuses statements". So I'm taking your bet. And I'm asking you to make an investment of $4 in support of quality journalism, that is especially important in times of crises so ignorant dip****s don't spread misinformation. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, No Excuses said: And I'm asking you to make an investment of $4 in support of quality journalism, that is especially important in times of crises so ignorant dip****s don't spread misinformation. Jus signed up, I shoulda done it after their 1617 project. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 45 minutes ago, No Excuses said: Bye Felicia. I haven’t read the back and forth but fair warning, you aren’t going to win. Larry is undefeated in ES debates. Sometimes he wins on the merits of his arguments and sometimes he wins through attrition. Either way, you’re screwed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xameil Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said: I haven’t read the back and forth but fair warning, you aren’t going to win. Larry is undefeated in ES debates. Sometimes he wins on the merits of his arguments and sometimes he wins through attrition. Either way, you’re screwed. Wait..I thought he usually won because we just realize that he is a man from florida and feel sorry for his senility... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Destino Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Cooked Crack said: This dude was a dentist. GTFOH. I’m not sure I’d want to live if I had to stare into the inside of people’s dirty mouths every working day of my life. Battle or virus, just let it be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Larry v No Excuses is a death match for the ages! Will anyone be left alive in its cataclysmic aftermath?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Destino Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said: Larry v No Excuses is a death match for the ages! Will anyone be left alive in its cataclysmic aftermath?!? They’ll all be banned if I see anymore insults from people that just can’t help themselves (not you TTB). Keep it friendly folks, and stick to the topic. Please. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfrankie Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 4 hours ago, Larry said: When was the last time anything happened, when the reaction was not "lie our asses off"? When he won the election. Meaning when he told everyone that he won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-ten-reasons-not-to-panic/ Coronavirus: how to keep things in perspective 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 1 hour ago, No Excuses said: ust please read this for your own sake: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html Decided to subscribe. (No, it's not $4. It's $4 for a while, and then we quadruple the price when you're not looking. But, I do respect the NYT, and many of the things that irritate me about businesses like them, I'm already grudgingly tolerating from other businesses. Pulled the trigger.) No, there's not a single thing in there that says China successfully reduced the infection rate within Wuhan by 90%. But it does look like they did one heck of a job mobilizing their health care system. (Which was the focus of the article). And I certainly assume that had an effect. And it also briefly mentions them doing things within Wuhan to limit spread. (They mention 15 million people ordering food online.) (Loved the part about their universal, single payer, health insurance system helping their disease readiness, by reducing people's inclination to not get tested till the disease gets really bad.) So it looks like my suspicion that they had thrown up a wall around Wuhan, to keep it from getting out, but hadn't really done much within the quarantine, wasn't accurate, either. I'd say that my completely unscientific gut does not find it impossible to believe that the impact on the US might be bigger than it is within Wuhan. (No, I'm still not going to buy simply assuming that it will be ten times worse.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCS Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LadySkinsFan Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 It's not out of the realm of possibility that with science-phobic administration that a head in the sand and pray it away approach is what they are counting on to avoid a full on explosion of the virus among the U.S.population. And we know what the reality is going to be. People are going to die, perhaps some even on ES. I studied the 1918 flu outbreak and it's pretty scary what happened worldwide. Some countries are taking this seriously. The U.S.government isn't. This is the beginning of disease outbreaks as the Earth's ice melts, releasing bacteria and viruses that modern humans don't have immunity too. We don't need four more years of the science-phobic administration doing anything to even try to get ahead of these things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) 20 minutes ago, LadySkinsFan said: People are going to die, perhaps some even on ES. You do realize that some already have, don't you? Edit. Just realized I grossly misread LSF's post. I read "some in the US" Makes just a tiny bit of difference. Edited March 9, 2020 by Larry 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcl05 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, Larry said: No, there's not a single thing in there that says China successfully reduced the infection rate within Wuhan by 90%. Not trying to address the spat you two are having, but, here is the primary data: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593v1 This suggests a change in R0 (a standard measure of infectivity) from 3.86 to 0.32 (caveat- big error bars) pre and post intervention. There is a ton of data in there and the article is worth reading. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LadySkinsFan Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Larry said: You do realize that some already have, don't you? Yes, I should have said many people will die who otherwise shouldn't because they weren't tested. More likely because of this science-phobic administration not doing everything possible to save people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justice98 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 So once I get this thing, how long am I gonna be sick for? Is it 3-5 days like an average cold, or am I gonna be bedridden for a week, or what are we dealing with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Re: "Germophobe Trump" Y'know, if this were in a movie, it'd be funny as hell. (Although I'd probably call BS on it.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bacon Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) A numbers question that's been bothering me: I have seen people make the assumption that there are as many as 10,000-50,000 cases of coronavirus running around the United States undetected. I believe that may be true, though I skew toward the lower end of that figure. If 1. There are thousands of undetected cases 2. The virus has been present in the country for anywhere from 6-8 weeks as viral imaging suggests 3. The CFR is around 2% Why have only 22 deaths been attributed to COVID-19? Shouldn't we be nearing the 200 mark by now if the virus has been running rampant for 2 months and is capable of killing in 2 weeks or less? Is one part of this equation completely wrong? Are people dropping dead from pneumonia and we're not attributing it to the correct source? I think a lot of assumptions are being made in many different capacities from various sources and the full picture has not come into focus yet. I'm ****ing terrified of this thing and what it could do to the country. Hell, I'm even getting scared for myself hearing stories of younger people falling ill out of nowhere and having to be intubated, but I'm still willing to believe that not every single worst case scenario we've been given will come to pass. Edited March 9, 2020 by Bacon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bacon Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Holy crap, don't go on ANY cruises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Bacon said: Holy crap, don't go on ANY cruises. Think it was Chris Rock who was saying "Just don't go to an island with dinosaurs on it!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbear Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Larry, you were asking how effective the counter measures in Wuhan were. The paper bcl05 linked answered: "The effective reproductive number dropped from 3.86 (95% credible interval 3.74 to 3.97) before interventions to 0.32 (0.28 to 0.37) post interventions. The interventions were estimated to prevent 94.5% (93.7 to 95.2%) infections till February 18" So it looks like the efforts really could have made it so they would see 90% less than we are likely to see here. Granted, that also assumes nothing we do moves the needle on transmission. To be fair, I can only imagine the outrage if we went as far as China went. Also, the disease is no longer isolated in the U.S. now with it being in 30 states and D.C. I think the window for us to be able to contain the virus like was done in Wuhan has passed. I do think other areas are managing the situation as aggressively as China is. From a friend in Israel, I hear they have quarantined areas and are tracking every case. It is to the point where she will not travel from Israel to the U.S. for a conference because she doesn't think she could get back into Israel after coming here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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