Renegade7

Starting QB 2019???

Who should be the starting QB in 2019???  

401 members have voted

  1. 1. Who should be the starting QB in 2019???

    • Alex Smith
      28
    • Colt McCoy
      66
    • Trade for a Veteran
      8
    • Sign a Veteran
      29
    • First Round Pick (2019 draft class)
      65
    • Non-First Round Pick (2019 draft class)
      37
    • Too Early to Answer
      63
    • I don't know yet
      22
    • We're screwed (at least at QB for 2019)
      83


Recommended Posts

17 minutes ago, volsmet said:

 

Supposedly Washington still wants Pitt to hold their deal with Buffalo

 

I wrote that as it was being reported the deal was done by all experts. Washington wanted them to hold as we tried to make our team more Antonio friendly. I don’t know why we would want them to make the deal with Buffalo unless we are eager to pick scraps from any impending cut. Buffalo cuts, not all bad.

 

Absolutely, but none of that explains why AZ would want a Keenum in a trade from us rather than acquiring him from Denver on their own.

 

If AZ trades for Keenum now, they get less for Rosen than they would have if they had just grabbed Case from Denver. That would be a move of, nearly, incomprehensible stupidity.

 

But... reporters report things. 

 

 

Gotcha, you meant "hold" as in "hold off".

 

I don't think Keenum is the key piece to get Rosen. I think, assuming your info is correct, AZ was asking a lot more from us than they were from others because 1) they knew we needed Josh the most and 2) they'd need a premium to move Rosen now, locking in their draft plan w/ Murray. That price was likely the 2020 1st+. The Redskins, smartly, acquired Keenum instead (in whom the Cardinals were likely interested but were waiting to get cut) and said "nah, we're not paying a 1st+, we're fine waiting till the draft to get something done, and oh by the way we got a guy you liked to back up your new guy."

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, volsmet said:

Mike - 4 letters.

 

Kirk

Alex

Colt

Mark

Josh

Case

&

Mike

  

 Lets do this.

 

:ols: let's do another Josh....Rosen.....or Drew, or Will. 

 

Funny post tho.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, RWJ said:

Steve is from Fanspeak.  He is either THE founder or one of the founders of Fanspeak site.  Check it out.  He is in touch with the Skins and is in the know.  Been stated by other and he might just be passing along what they've stated or he may have heard from a source that Keenum and a draft pick for Rosen will or might happen.  Keenum played for KK in Houston.

 

If he's plugged in like a reporter its a very recent thing with him -- I've been following him for quite some time.   He talks like a fan and throws a lot against the wall.  I've seen other people do stuff like this on twitter for example its intuitive that they'd meet with Daniel Jones at the combine so he'd say they are meeting with him tonight -- later we find out that's not true.  But it was worth a shot to say it because good chance his guess would be right.

 

It would be like me who has followed the Adrian Peterson thing closely saying I am hearing the Bears are hot for him but it depends on Jordan Howard being dealt.  The Redskins I hear are trying to keep him  😀  That would be me combining three different narratives on three different stories -- and adding just an intuitive guess that would follow from that narrative and pretend my own extrapolation from it is something i heard.   So of course I haven't heard that the Redskins are scrambling to keep Peterson this weekend but it stands to reason that they are and if I said it people would likely believe it. 

 

That's how that dude comes off to me -- piecing together narratives and treating educated guesses from that as real scuttlebutt that team sources shared with him.  In short, I think its BS.  I saw several people call the dude out on it on twitter.  Not saying what he is saying is worthless because he's combining narratives but anyone of us can do the same.

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brett Rypien anyone? He'd be a great pick with one of those 3rd rounders. All that kid did was drop dimes for 4 years at Boise. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Gotcha, you meant "hold" as in "hold off".

 

I don't think Keenum is the key piece to get Rosen. I think, assuming your info is correct, AZ was asking a lot more from us than they were from others because 1) they knew we needed Josh the most and 2) they'd need a premium to move Rosen now, locking in their draft plan w/ Murray. That price was likely the 2020 1st+. The Redskins, smartly, acquired Keenum instead (in whom the Cardinals were likely interested but were waiting to get cut) and said "nah, we're not paying a 1st+, we're fine waiting till the draft to get something done, and oh by the way we got a guy you liked to back up your new guy."

 

Ah, indeed. Hold off, hold on, hold the phone. 

 

We certainly turned away an offer, which I presume was a counter offer. I thought we were going to have Rosen by today, but I also thought porcupines were fictitious creatures until about a month ago. 

 

There must be a way that AZ trading for Case, now, rather than yesterday, makes sense, but the logic eludes me; That’s not atypical.

 

Just now, Alexa said:

Brett Rypien anyone? He'd be a great pick with one of those 3rd rounders. All that kid did was drop dimes for 4 years at Boise. 

 

I’m with you.

 

Murray

Lock

Thorson

Jackson

Hansen

Rypien

 

I like those guys as of today. 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

If he's plugged in like a reporter its a very recent thing with him -- I've been following him for quite some time.   He talks like a fan and throws a lot against the wall.  I've seen other people do stuff like this on twitter for example its intuitive that they'd meet with Daniel Jones at the combine so he'd say they are meeting with him tonight -- later we find out that's not true.  But it was worth a shot to say it because good chance his guess would be right.

 

It would be like me who has followed the Adrian Peterson thing closely saying I am hearing the Bears are hot for him but it depends on Jordan Howard being dealt.  The Redskins I hear are trying to keep him  😀  That would be me combining three different narratives on three different stories -- and adding just an intuitive guess that would follow from that narrative and pretend my own extrapolation from it is something i heard.   So of course I haven't heard that the Redskins are scrambling to keep Peterson this weekend but it stands to reason that they are and if I said it people would likely believe it. 

 

That's how that dude comes off to me -- piecing together narratives and treating educated guesses from that as real scuttlebutt that team sources shared with him.  In short, I think its BS.  I saw several people call the dude out on it on twitter.  Not saying what he is saying is worthless because he's combining narratives but anyone of us can do the same.

 

Could very well be SIP. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Tsailand said:

 

Mad shade from an offensive lineman who didn't take care of the QB.

 

Here's a deep dive into Case's #'s with the Broncos last year using some of the better analytical models around:


AYA: 5.8   31st

Air Yards Per Attempt: 3.7    24th

True Completion Pct (Factors out unpressured throwaways, and dropped passes): 69%    24th

Play Action Completion Pct: 62% 24th

Red Zone Completion Pct: 51.4%  37th

Deep Ball Completion Pct: 34.3%   17th

Pressured Completion Rate: 36%  20th

Production Premium (measured productivity across league average situations) -16  32nd

True Passer Rating (factoring out unpressured throwaways and drops): 83.4 (46.9 QBR) 28th

Accuracy Rating: 2.9  20th

Receiver Target Separation: 1.42    31st


In fairness to Case, his #'s in '17 were orders of magnitude better, how much of that was the talent surrounding him in Minnesota, and how much of it was was just a clear outlier season is open to question. Regardless, he's not landing in a situation with two top 20 WR's, a guy having a career year at TE, and a superstar RB in Cook for a quarter of the season replaced by league average at best RB talent after he went down. Case will be walking into a situation even worse in 2019 other than w/regards to the OL, and possibly RB (though Lindsay was fantastic). The Redskins offense really isn't an improvement over the awful offense he dealt with last year, other than along the OL. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just don't see the skins drafting a a Qb round 1 unless Murray or Lock falls which I doubt.  With the Kennum signing, I thought it was a great move for now. They have at least someone that they don't have to pay a little extra in FA. I don't think Colt or Keenum is their answer for this season, but if things don't go their way to get the QB they want then at least they have something instead of going with colt and then he gets hurt and we're looking for another QB on the market during the season. Imo I think the Skins wants Rosen. His salary makes since and he's a perfect fit for Gruden's system. The only thing is the Cardinals are playing this thing out of what they're going to do and probably all the way till right before the draft. That's why the skins got Keenum too just in case if Rosen stays or they find a better offer from Rosen. Gruden is in a make the playoffs or getting fired mode and maybe Allen too. I know people think Rosen is worth a 3rd or whatever but if they take Murray their will be teams for him and maybe bid higher. I'm just guessing here, but If I had to say the skins will offer next year's 1st for Rosen and maybe Keenum too but the skins will get some type of decent draft pick back from the cardinals depends on the offers from other teams. I'm just guessing what the skins will do here, but if Gruden and probably Allen is in their final year they're not worried about what they are giving up in the future they will do whatever to try to get the team in the best way to win now which seems like every year. One more thing too the Cardinals were not going to go for Keenum in a trade at all. That would make other teams know what they're doing and Rosen's value could drop more.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On its own, I like the Keenum trade. Don't know that I want a Rosen deal, though. If AZ wants him out of town that bad, so the Skins really want him?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Alexa said:

Brett Rypien anyone? He'd be a great pick with one of those 3rd rounders. All that kid did was drop dimes for 4 years at Boise. 

Dimes for 4 years?  Did you watch their games?  Id pass personally.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, profusion said:

On its own, I like the Keenum trade. Don't know that I want a Rosen deal, though. If AZ wants him out of town that bad, so the Skins really want him?

Okay, but by that same logic Denver after only one season wanted to get away from Keenum so bad that they traded for Flacco and ate $10M in dead cap space. Doesn't that seem a bit of selective reasoning? 

 

Anyway, the reason why I was sort of leaning towards the Rosen deal was there were 3 more years on his deal combined under $15M. That's cheaper, there's no denying he was a better NFL prospect thank Keenum and ultimately if he stinks we'd get a better draft pick out of it.

 

What I see is us spending ~$30M in cap space and if Case works out, he's a FA. If he doesn't we've paid high end franchise QB money for nothing (assuming for the 2020 season a 35-36 year old Alex Smith will either never play again or just not be that effective).

 

The largest fear is that Keenum is just good enough to keep us around .500. He doesn't suck enough to aid the rebuild and he plays just well enough to contemplate bringing him back again. There's also a scenario in my mind that we do plan long term and draft Lock/Jones only to be reminded in 2020 that drafting QBs is hard we don't really develop QBs well. Add in a potential regime change and whomever we do draft might not fit the next group. 

 

I hope I'm wrong, but unfortunately when it comes to things that make me sad I'm painfully accurate...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Here's a deep dive into Case's #'s with the Broncos last year using some of the better analytical models around:


AYA: 5.8   31st

Air Yards Per Attempt: 3.7    24th

True Completion Pct (Factors out unpressured throwaways, and dropped passes): 69%    24th

Play Action Completion Pct: 62% 24th

Red Zone Completion Pct: 51.4%  37th

Deep Ball Completion Pct: 34.3%   17th

Pressured Completion Rate: 36%  20th

Production Premium (measured productivity across league average situations) -16  32nd

True Passer Rating (factoring out unpressured throwaways and drops): 83.4 (46.9 QBR) 28th

Accuracy Rating: 2.9  20th

Receiver Target Separation: 1.42    31st


In fairness to Case, his #'s in '17 were orders of magnitude better, how much of that was the talent surrounding him in Minnesota, and how much of it was was just a clear outlier season is open to question. Regardless, he's not landing in a situation with two top 20 WR's, a guy having a career year at TE, and a superstar RB in Cook for a quarter of the season replaced by league average at best RB talent after he went down. Case will be walking into a situation even worse in 2019 other than w/regards to the OL, and possibly RB (though Lindsay was fantastic). The Redskins offense really isn't an improvement over the awful offense he dealt with last year, other than along the OL. 

 

Got a bunch of Denver fans whom are fairly football smart. Here's the short notes on my conversations:

 

- They haven't had a QB since 2014 (Manning when he still could throw)

- Their most recent SB was all smoke and mirrors on offense. 

- They didn't see any improvement going from Trevor Siemian for two years and Case Keenum. Same career backup with similar limitations. 

- They know Flacco is not the answer, but they hope the failure leads to Elway being fired. They all hate how arrogant he is. 

 

When I ask them what we should expect they just said 'failure'. I think it was more a comment about the overall team, but they gave me no faith that Keenum would be on the roster a year later. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Unbias said:

 

Got a bunch of Denver fans whom are fairly football smart. Here's the short notes on my conversations:

 

- They haven't had a QB since 2014 (Manning when he still could throw)

- Their most recent SB was all smoke and mirrors on offense. 

- They didn't see any improvement going from Trevor Siemian for two years and Case Keenum. Same career backup with similar limitations. 

- They know Flacco is not the answer, but they hope the failure leads to Elway being fired. They all hate how arrogant he is. 

 

When I ask them what we should expect they just said 'failure'. I think it was more a comment about the overall team, but they gave me no faith that Keenum would be on the roster a year later.

image.png1. Pretty much.

2. I told a student of mine that year to enjoy it while it lasted because the title was a miracle, and they had no plan beyond Manning. I had no idea how bad it would get after that though in terms of drafts (horrific).

3. There's a reason Siemian was such a late pick, I was more surprised at how god awful the Memphis kid was. I didn't expect him to be a star, but I did expect him to be solid. 

4.Interesting, I don't know if he's arrogant, I just know he's bad, and his preference for big armed super tall guys has become a running joke in the analytics community:

 

Brock Lobster: 6 foot 7

Trevor Siemian: 6 foot 3

Paxton Lynch: 6 foot 7

Chad Kelly: 6 foot 2

Case Keenum 6 foot 1

Joe Flacco: 6 foot 6

 

3 of the 6 QB's were/are basically tallest in the league variety, and a fourth is just tall. Only Case Keenum didn't fit that standard. 

 

Keenum's a subpar placeholder who won't be able to lift the poor weapons we have, but will give the illusion of subpar competence. 

 

It's too bad we can't find it within ourselves to commit to a full scale rebuild but that would mean Allen/Jay would be kicked to the curb, so that ain't happening. 

 

Edited by The Consigliere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Getting that elite hall of fame type QB is tough. Man, GMs will get blown to pieces eventually without one. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trading for Case Keenum is a great offseason move.

 

But I doubt it will be great when season comes...

 

b407729c81d7b052c7d35b6366b8cfc0.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's been more then a few super bowl winning QBs with less skills then Case.  I watched his Vikings highlights and then last years with Denver... basically Denver's system doesn't fit what Case does well.  The other major discrepancy was that Case was throwing to Diggs and Theilen in 2017.  If you give him a chance to win it includes a system like Jon Gruden's younger brother runs.  He's going to need a true #1 WR to be anything like his best.  

 

I think a guy like Metcalf would change the whole big picture. 

 

Skins  have so many issues it just doesn't make sense to make any big moves.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Unbias said:

Okay, but by that same logic Denver after only one season wanted to get away from Keenum so bad that they traded for Flacco and ate $10M in dead cap space. Doesn't that seem a bit of selective reasoning? 

 

The difference is that Keenum is supposed to be a cheap, serviceable QB for next season. If they bring in Rosen, he's supposed to be The Guy.

 

In Denver, they were hoping Keenum would be a playoff-caliber QB for a team that Elway thought was only a QB short of contending. I'm pretty sure even the Mayor of Ashburn doesn't think that of Keenum now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, profusion said:

The difference is that Keenum is supposed to be a cheap, serviceable QB for next season. If they bring in Rosen, he's supposed to be The Guy.

Umm, no. Rosen would be not need to be The Guy. Rosen would be The Dude With A Longer Contract While Still Being Cheaper Than Keenum. If Rosen still turned out to be The Guy afterwards, party on. If he doesn't turn out to be The Guy, we have more cash on hand to party on with someone else.

Edited by NickyJ
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since we have Keenum who is basically Colt but durable so we don't have to go thru people from outside the league, we can play hardball on anything we give up for Rosen...if we still are interested.  Giving up a 1st next year would be incredibly stupid as there will be more QBs available next year in the draft and some think more talented.  

 

Us the Kirk comp pick and a player at best.  Nothing more.  Don't be stupid Bruce.  

 

I had no clue that Keenum had played under KK in college so its a pretty saavy move in they wanted Rosen all along.  If Az won't balk then we can wait a year and/or draft Grier or someone else in the 3rd or later this draft.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, profusion said:

 

The difference is that Keenum is supposed to be a cheap, serviceable QB for next season. If they bring in Rosen, he's supposed to be The Guy.

 

In Denver, they were hoping Keenum would be a playoff-caliber QB for a team that Elway thought was only a QB short of contending. I'm pretty sure even the Mayor of Ashburn doesn't think that of Keenum now.

 

What? We'll know after the deal, but Keenum is supposed to have a $10M salary for next year. Rosen will cost ~$4M, ~$4.8M then ~$5,.6M for each of the following years. 2 years of Josh Rosen are cheaper than one with Keenum, so I don't see how he's the 'cheap, serviceable QB' when he's actually more expensive than the guy with upside. 

 

Regarding your second point Denver, who financially committed to Keenum, realized he's not a playoff-caliber QB. How can we possibly expect a different result? 

10 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

image.png4.Interesting, I don't know if he's arrogant, I just know he's bad, and his preference for big armed super tall guys has become a running joke in the analytics community:

 

 

 

The two best lines my buddy has about Elway are the following: 

 

- Every time he walks by a mirror and locks eyes with his reflection he holds an erection until he can relieves himself (and when I say 'himself' I mean he doesn't think another human is worth of touching him). 

- As the new jerseys come out every season he has a brand new 'Elway #7' created, just in case a QB gets hurt and he's needed to save the city one more time. Right after that game he'll walk by a mirror, lock eyes, and we are back to point #1...

Edited by Unbias

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Unbias said:

 

What? We'll know after the deal, but Keenum is supposed to have a $10M salary for next year. Rosen will cost ~$4M, ~$4.8M then ~$5,.6M for each of the following years. 2 years of Josh Rosen are cheaper than one with Keenum, so I don't see how he's the 'cheap, serviceable QB' when he's actually more expensive than the guy with upside. 

 

Those numbers aren't correct.

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

Those numbers aren't correct.

Your right. Keenums salary on our books for 2019 would be  around 3.5 mil. Denver ate the rest of his $

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, rumplestilskin said:

Your right. Keenums salary on our books for 2019 would be  around 3.5 mil. Denver ate the rest of his $

Pretty sure those other numbers were the year on year salary cap hits, some of which is left behind with Denver or with Arizona if Rosen moves on.

 

Yep, Keenum is 3.5 mil for us, Rosen would be ideal, think he'd only count 6.5mil spread over the next THREE years combined. Arizona would eat the 10mil or whatever it was original signing bonus.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

11 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Pretty sure those other numbers were the year on year salary cap hits, some of which is left behind with Denver or with Arizona if Rosen moves on.

 

Yep, Keenum is 3.5 mil for us, Rosen would be ideal, think he'd only count 6.5mil spread over the next THREE years combined. Arizona would eat the 10mil or whatever it was original signing bonus.

 

 

It appears way of trading is evolving in how to teams siphon money owed between the two parties. Wonder if Skins will have to take on some of that cap hit if a deal were to be made for Rosen, like with Keenum. 

 

Just an interesting variable that that seems to be taking shape in trades. Not arguing with your point about Rosen. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

It appears way of trading is evolving in how to teams siphon money owed between the two parties. Wonder if Skins will have to take on some of that cap hit if a deal were to be made for Rosen, like with Keenum. 

 

Just an interesting variable that that seems to be taking shape in trades. Not arguing with your point about Rosen. 

 

I'd say Keenum was specifically because he had a 7mil guarantee for this year from Denver which had to be covered in some capacity.

 

Rosen's cap hit resulted from his historic signing bonus, really none of that could ever fall to a team that's subsequently traded for him.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.