Who should be Starting RB in 2018??? (Public Poll)

[Renegade7]

1 minute ago, CTskin said:

 

I assume it was an either/or decision. But with CT still recovering and Byron possibly heading to the PUP, I'd welcome bringing in Charles also. I doubt he'd be interested now with AP signed and Perine and Kelley still here.

 

Given how "committed" we are to Kelly, I can see him getting cut if we signed Charles, too.  It really just boils down to how bad he wants to play, guys like him an AP can't be picky this point in their careers if they want to still play.

[Spaceman Spiff]

1 hour ago, CTskin said:

 

Amigo, he's a lock.

 

Here's hoping.  But my inner conspiracy theorist that I need to continually beat down tells me that Gruden doesn't want AP.  I think Gruden wants Kelley as his #1 back and this was brought on by Bruce and Dan.  If AP doesn't make it into the regular season, I bet Gruden will be the one to blame.

[Burgold]

I think I'm a winner. When this poll was started I picked IDK, but he ain't on the roster yet.

 

I was hoping I'd be right with Guice being the man, but it looks like AP. I can't imagine an AP sitting behind a guy like Kelly.

[Morneblade]

2 hours ago, bobandweave said:

 

Really? Since you like to speak in these generalities that fly in the face of what's real and what's not let's stick to facts and not your opinion please.

 

I already informed you that only 18 total RBs had 200 or more carries last season. So everyone knows who they were:

 

Le'Veon Bell - 2nd round pick 2013
LeSean McCoy - 2nd round pick 2009
Melvin Gordon - 1st round pick 2015
Todd Gurley - 1st round pick 2015
Jordan Howard - 5th round pick 2016
Kareem Hunt - 3rd round pick 2017
Leonard Fournette - 1st round pick 2017
Frank Gore - 3rd round pick 2005

C.J. Anderson - Not Drafted
Ezekiel Elliott - 1st round pick 2016
Carlos Hyde - 2nd round pick 2014
Lamar Miller - 4th round pick 2012
Mark Ingram - 1st round pick 2011
Latavius Murray - 6th round pick 2013
Alex Collins - 6th round pick 2016
Jay Ajayi - 5th round pick 2015
Marshawn Lynch - 1st round pick 2007
Isaiah Crowell - Not Drafted

 

1. Four of these men are playing for new teams in 2018

 

2. Of the draft rounds the NFL had 6 first round picks, 3 second round picks,  2 third round picks, 1 fourth round pick, 2 fifth round picks, 2 sixth round picks, and 2 not drafted players rush for over 200 carries last year. 2/3rd of the RBs to accomplish that 200 carry threshold were not first round picks. 

 

3. Last point about this. Here is the list of all time carry per season list for RB's: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rush_att_single_season.htm, of the top 100 players on this list, only 5 times has a player this decade (2010-2017) made the list. That is compared to the 2000-2009 decade where they had 40 players make that list, compared to the 1990-1999 decade where they had 27 players make the list, and the 1980-1989 decade where they had 22 men make the list. Over the years the trend has gone up in the 2000 decade and embarrassingly low this current decade. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rush_att_single_season.htm

 

 

Really a lot better? Here is the reality of this situation:

 

2010-Present: The number of RBs taken in the first round period - 15 Total. Of those RBs taken in the first round the number of top 5 drafted players is 4

2000-2009: The number of RBs taken in the first round period - 32 Total. Of those RBs taken in the first round the number of top 5 drafted players is 6

1990-1999: The number of RBs taken in the first round period - 34 Total. Of those RBs taken in the first round the number of top 5 drafted players is 6

 

The overall number of RBs taken in the first round has drastically decreased over the past decade. 

The overall number of RBs taken in the top 5 picks in the Draft has decreased this decade. 

The trends are not what you think they are

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=RB&type=position

 

Maybe you need to pay attention since your hot-takes are not correct and argue with me less? 

 

 

 

This is going to be fun!

 

You see, you're breaking things down by decade, which while it would work for certain things, but not this. Because the trend I'm talking about didn't start until 2016, not 2009. It's not a decade long trend, in fact, it's only just starting. Which is why your numbers are not going to fit, because they are in the wrong context.

 

Zeke Elliot. This is what changed the idea of just drafting a JAG in the 5th, "that's all you need in today's game, passing is much more important." Not only was he taken at #5, he was the only RB taken in the 1st round. Derrick Henry, the Heisman Trophy winner was the only other back taken in the first 2 rounds. He's been splitting time with DeMarco Murry, who just retired. Expect him to explode this year. He had about 750 yards on 170 carries in 2017, expect those numbers to double this year.

 

If you remember, taking Elliot at #5 overall was just insane. Sure, he looked like a great RB, could do everything, run, block, catch, but top 5? RB's just don't matter like that anymore. Low 1st, 2nd round is where everyone though he would go. And then he went #5, and it was like the Cowboys completely lost their minds? You don't take a RB there! You take a LT, or QB, or OLB, or FS, or......anything, just not a RB.........................or a kicker.

 

But then, he turned that team around. People looked at that, saw the a depth chart with 1 5th round pick, 2 UDFA's and a 8 year JAG on the 53 man roster, the one that was completely "meh" and started to think about putting some actual weight behind the position again.

 

Now, fast forward 2 years later, teams are looking for a back like Zeke. A guys you can built your offense around. Now, I'll show you who has been drafted since.

2017: Fournette goes #5, McCaffery goes #8, Cook goes #41, Mixon goes #48, Kamara goes #67, Hunt goes #86.

2018: Barkley goes #2, Penny goes #27, Chubb goes #35, Johnson goes #43, Guice goes #59, Freeman goes #71.

Obviously the 2018 have not played a snap, so they don't show up on yardage and carry stats, but I think we both know that none of these players are going to platoon with 2 other dudes.

 

Now, you could even argue that this started with Gurley in 2015, and I'd say that you'd have a decent argument, He was a top 10 pick (#10), and there was buzz around a RB going that high.

 

2014, there are only 3 RB's taken in the first 2 rounds, and none in the 1st.

2013 is odd. Austin is taken #8, but even if he was listed as a RB, everyone is going to convert him to WR. No ones else in the 1st. 5 guys are taken in the 2nd round, Including Bell, and Lacy, and some are real head scratchers. None in the 3rd round at all.

2012. Boy, Trent Richardson. This might have been the guy that scared the last of last off. #3 overall. Doug Martin #31

2011. Ingram is the first RB off the board #28.

 

The difference between now and just 4 years ago is that FO's are looking for a game changing RB, and not a JAG coming out of the 4-6 round. Sure, you get guys that slip through the cracks, and everyone wants their own Tom Brady, but RB, as you admit, was overlooked. Just get a body in here, and we'll make it work. FO's are not doing that now. They are looking for the next Gurley, Elliot, Barkley, Fournette, Chubb, Hunt, Kamara, Cook, or Guice to come out. And they will burn a high round draft choice, or a high first rounder to get him.

 

So, sorry, I will not argue with you less because my hot takes are wrong. I'll do it because I'm not wrong, and it's a message board. We talk about stuff.

 

 

[Malapropismic Depository]

I hope Guice hangs around AP a lot, and takes advantage of that opportunity even while he's hurt.

There's wisdom there that could make Guice even better..

[Morneblade]

Just now, Malapropismic Depository said:

I hope Guice hangs around AP a lot, and takes advantage of that opportunity even while he's hurt.

There's wisdom there that could make Guice even better..

 

Damn right, including how to come back from a ACL. Both guys run the same, angry. I could see Guice learning a lot for AP.

[beachboy757]

I don't understand people calling R.Kelley and Perrine trash, garbage, and JAGS but prefer guys like Charcandrick West and Mike Gillislee over Adrian Peterson??  

 

They are just as much JAG as Kelley and Perrine and would not make much more of an impact than our current guys or a "washed up" AP.

[bobandweave]

19 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

 

This is going to be fun!

 

You're right let's go

 

19 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

You see, you're breaking things down by decade, which while it would work for certain things, but not this. Because the trend I'm talking about didn't start until 2016, not 2009. It's not a decade long trend, in fact, it's only just starting. Which is why your numbers are not going to fit, because they are in the wrong context.

 

Isn't it so cute that you would be dismissive of thing that don't work in your favor called history but want to manipulate the present and make much more of what is most recent like that. Truthfully I don't think like that. You believe you can manipulate the data into working within your context. Context is King right? So what is the context here?

 

Trend - a general direction in which something is developing or changing.

 

Things come and go. Remember the Wildcat? People thought that was going to be the new trend. Died out in 2 seasons. Remember the Griffin led offense that was going to take over the league? Yup did not happen either. Truth is there are other "trends" that were just flashes in the pan.

 

So about your trend let me try and help you. What can we learn from history?

 

According to the link I posted but in case you doubt me here it is again

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=RB&type=position

 

...if a trend is only three drafts like your saying then in 

 

1998 - First round selection pick #5 overall was RB Curtis Enis 

1999 - First round selection pick #4 overall was RB Edgerrin James and pick #5 overall was Ricky Williams

2000 - First round pick selection #5 overall was RB Jamal Lewis

2001 - First round pick selection # 5 overall was RB LaDainian Tomlinson

 

This gives us a good look at the same thing happening recently but with an even stronger case then what's happening now. So when was the next RB to get taken that high in the draft after 2001? If this was a true trend the current streak would have been in 2002. That did not happen. The next top 5 RB taken in the NFL draft went in 2005. A trend does not go 4 years in a row and then skips 4 seasons like that. Before you try and argue that no one was good in those four years here is a list of RBs that were drafted between 2002-2004: Stephen Jackson, Michael Turner, Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson, DeShaun Foster, Clinton Portis. Don't and try going there. 

 

So what does this mean? Well just because something happens 3 years in a row does not a trend make. You nor I have any idea what happens next season. Pretending you do while trying to ignore the past won't work. So basically the rest of your post doesn't add up. Truth is many times in the NFL RB's have been drafted as a top 5 pick. And many many times it happened in successive years. And every single time it did that had absolutely ZERO meaning for the next draft. The only trend is already known, NFL teams draft RB's. That's the only real trend in this data. Your making something out of nothing doesn't mean I buy it at all. I don't. 

 

19 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

So, sorry, I will not argue with you less because my hot takes are wrong. I'll do it because I'm not wrong, and it's a message board. We talk about stuff.

 

Oh man I don't care honestly. You've followed me around from thread to thread today, with my notices filling up because you like to reply to me. Its your volly Sir. Just don't get upset that I believe what your saying or I have to follow your logic, I don't. Peace brother have a good evening. 

[Morneblade]

4 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

You're right let's go

 

 

Isn't it so cute that you would be dismissive of thing that don't work in your favor called history but want to manipulate the present and make much more of what is most recent like that. Truthfully I don't think like that. You believe you can manipulate the data into working within your context. Context is King right? So what is the context here?

 

I gave you context. If you have not figure it out, go back and read it again, if you still can't figure it out, I'll be happy to try to explain it to you.

 

4 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

Trend - a general direction in which something is developing or changing.

 

Things come and go. Remember the Wildcat? People thought that was going to be the new trend. Died out in 2 seasons. Remember the Griffin led offense that was going to take over the league? Yup did not happen either. Truth is there are other "trends" that were just flashes in the pan.

 

Yep, sure do. And if the NFL stops going after RB's like they have the last 2 years, it will be a flash in the pan. I don't think that's going to happen. Why? Because running the ball is valuable. You use to examples of a gimmick offense that no body though was going to blow up the NFL anymore than the triple option did. Rotten apples to oranges.

 

4 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

So about your trend let me try and help you. What can we learn from history?

 

According to the link I posted but in case you doubt me here it is again

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=RB&type=position

 

...if a trend is only three drafts like your saying then in 

 

1998 - First round selection pick #5 overall was RB Curtis Enis 

1999 - First round selection pick #4 overall was RB Edgerrin James and pick #5 overall was Ricky Williams

2000 - First round pick selection #5 overall was RB Jamal Lewis

2001 - First round pick selection # 5 overall was RB LaDainian Tomlinson

 

Nice. And about that time, the NFL started to move away from the philosophy of the importance of running the ball, and stopping the run.

 

4 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

This gives us a good look at the same thing happening recently but with an even stronger case then what's happening now. So when was the next RB to get taken that high in the draft after 2001? If this was a true trend the current streak would have been in 2002. That did not happen. The next top 5 RB taken in the NFL draft went in 2005. A trend does not go 4 years in a row and then skips 4 seasons like that. Before you try and argue that no one was good in those four years here is a list of RBs that were drafted between 2002-2004: Stephen Jackson, Michael Turner, Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson, DeShaun Foster, Clinton Portis. Don't and try going there.

 

I never said there were no good running backs, just that Front offices were not valuing the position as much. Not putting high level resources at it. all teams want good running backs. They just don't value it enough to throw a high level draft pick at it.

 

4 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

So what does this mean? Well just because something happens 3 years in a row does not a trend make. You nor I have any idea what happens next season. Pretending you do while trying to ignore the past won't work. So basically the rest of your post doesn't add up. Truth is many times in the NFL RB's have been drafted as a top 5 pick. And many many times it happened in successive years. And every single time it did that had absolutely ZERO meaning for the next draft. The only trend is already known, NFL teams draft RB's. That's the only real trend in this data. Your making something out of nothing doesn't mean I buy it at all. I don't. 

 

Actually it does make it a trend. The actual question is; is it a marked change in philosophy, and last for years or decades or just a trend that dies out quickly. I think we're seeing a philosophical change. It might be that it flames out. Both are trends.

 

4 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

 

Oh man I don't care honestly. You've followed me around from thread to thread today, with my notices filling up because you like to reply to me. Its your volly Sir. Just don't get upset that I believe what your saying or I have to follow your logic, I don't. Peace brother have a good evening. 

 

And you have followed me around just as much, so let's not try and paint it like I'm stalking you. You've blown up my inbox just as much. If it's that much of a deal, DON'T RESPOND. And no, you don't have to do anything, including following my logic. Just like I don't have to follow yours.

 

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, Morneblade said:

 

Damn right, including how to come back from a ACL. Both guys run the same, angry. I could see Guice learning a lot for AP.

This was my line of thinking last night and it would be the first question I would ask JG or Doug Williams....it makes a ton of sense. I can't think of a better guy for Guice to be mentored by, especially with the ACL injury. I hope this works out.

[skinfan2k]

He's here to practice for the next 2 weeks and then he will brought back week 2 because Allen is a cheap ass and then doesn't have to pay him all year 

[TheShredder]

22 hours ago, TheShredder said:

I think he has to dance around the presser and be careful because it's a fine line between the current situation and possibly going back on what you've said prior to player on the roster.  You don't want to come out and say something to discourage anyone or be viewed as a liar.  The fact is that RB is a contested position on the roster right now and there's nobody who has come in and taken the position that they hoped Guice would excel at.  They've absolutely not anointed Kelly the starter.  They also have to be careful because they're one injury away from being screwed in Week 1... I get what they're doing.  Now if you're JC or AP then behind closed doors they're likely telling them that the position is unsettled and if they sign them that they'll be able to come in and compete.  That's a bit of a dance the coach has to do in these instances. Really he's saying nothing to the media except acknowledging the fact that they are brining all of them in for due diligence.  Which means which indicates no intentions.  They'll reserve that for whenever they want to reveal it. 

With AP having last played for Arizona, it would make sense that the likelihood of them signing him after a workout, specifically because that's their week 1 opponent and Marshal can be placed on the PUP with the injury timeline...I'd put money on AP signing after a workout.  $.02 

 

Nailed it. 

[TheShredder]

20 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

This was my line of thinking last night and it would be the first question I would ask JG or Doug Williams....it makes a ton of sense. I can't think of a better guy for Guice to be mentored by, especially with the ACL injury. I hope this works out.

There's some solid value in the Pro's vs. Con's with AP signing.  This is a big one as well...nobody has come back from an ACL stronger than AP in the history of football.  

 

AP has developed special skills to go along with his natural gifts.  His vision is HOF.  His work ethic...HOF.  Experience with comebacks...HOF.  The value AP brings to the table isn't simply to carry the rock.  

[bobandweave]

Anyone know the salary he’s going to get? On the emergency pod that JP Finley and Rich Tandler did today they said he’s not getting a dime unless he makes the 53 man roster. That’s interesting to me since he’s basically playing the next two games for free so he’s definitely motivated, just curious how much that he’s gonna cost

[Sandy Monk]

12 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

Anyone know the salary he’s going to get? On the emergency pod that JP Finley and Rich Tandler did today they said he’s not getting a dime unless he makes the 53 man roster. That’s interesting to me since he’s basically playing the next two games for free so he’s definitely motivated, just curious how much that he’s gonna cost

 

That just doesn't seem likely. I'm sure he will be paid for every week he's working as a Redskin, but that there are no guarantees from week to week. No matter what, we're talking small change, so it shouldn't much matter. 

[TheShredder]

1 hour ago, bobandweave said:

Anyone know the salary he’s going to get? On the emergency pod that JP Finley and Rich Tandler did today they said he’s not getting a dime unless he makes the 53 man roster. That’s interesting to me since he’s basically playing the next two games for free so he’s definitely motivated, just curious how much that he’s gonna cost

It's vet minimum $1.05M 1-Year deal.  He'll get all the benefits in the Collective Bargaining Agreement.  If he get's injured in the Preseason he'd go to IR until he passed a physical, etc.  

[KillBill26]

4 hours ago, CTskin said:

 

I assume it was an either/or decision. But with CT still recovering and Byron possibly heading to the PUP, I'd welcome bringing in Charles also. I doubt he'd be interested now with AP signed and Perine and Kelley still here.

Marshall is ineligible for PUP.  Player must be placed on there before he participates in any practices.  You might have meant IR, gruden alluded to that possibility, but with the IR designated to return means you can't bring him back until 8 weeks later. And you only get two of those a year, not sure if they want to burn one on a player like marshall.  

 

I wonder how the rest of the league views Kelley, Perine and marshall.  Since none of them have more than two accrued seasons, I think they are all still practice squad eligible.  I bet Perine would get claimed due to pedigree alone, Kelley would probably get claimed because it's hard to believe he would go from jay touting him as a starting caliber rb to not making any other roster. I bet marshall could stick, especially if teams had concern about his ankle.  That could buy some time until the rb situation becomes a little clearer or the next injury strikes.  Kind of sad to debate whether the rbs on our roster are good enough to make any other team in the league, but that's where we are at 

 

I don't see them pursuing JC, and I think smith is only going to get garbage time reps as a guy they could care less if he gets injured.  

[Malapropismic Depository]

I think I am going to vote for "Sign Veteran FA".

Even though I am in the minority and only about 6% have voted that, thus far.

[Morneblade]

13 hours ago, KillBill26 said:

Marshall is ineligible for PUP.  Player must be placed on there before he participates in any practices.  You might have meant IR, gruden alluded to that possibility, but with the IR designated to return means you can't bring him back until 8 weeks later. And you only get two of those a year, not sure if they want to burn one on a player like marshall.  

 

I wonder how the rest of the league views Kelley, Perine and marshall.  Since none of them have more than two accrued seasons, I think they are all still practice squad eligible.  I bet Perine would get claimed due to pedigree alone, Kelley would probably get claimed because it's hard to believe he would go from jay touting him as a starting caliber rb to not making any other roster. I bet marshall could stick, especially if teams had concern about his ankle.  That could buy some time until the rb situation becomes a little clearer or the next injury strikes.  Kind of sad to debate whether the rbs on our roster are good enough to make any other team in the league, but that's where we are at 

 

I don't see them pursuing JC, and I think smith is only going to get garbage time reps as a guy they could care less if he gets injured.  

 

 

Perine might get a sniff, but I don't think Kelley would. People are going to look at his tape and see a guy that doesn't have speed, quickness, vision, and how, after loosing weight, doesn't have a lot of power. His game film this year has been really bad. People don't care what they HC says, they will just look at the film.

I think Marshall is safe too.

 

Honestly, guys like these would be on the streets looking for a team like us to have 3 guys go down and hope to come in for a workout. We've ingored the RB position for years and years. Aflred Morris was a 5th round pick out of a small school, that sucked. We got real lucky with him, and then we let him go. I think our depth is bad here. I love CT, but he's got to be a 3rd down guy, and he can't carry the ball much.

[Bigmuss1]

Here’s to AD! ? Let’s hope this experiment works out!!!  With the brutal reality of injuries to this position on our team, it’s hard to argue the signing.  Hopefully, the Silverback Gorilla can help breath some life back into the vet running backs legs!!  OU connection!!  (Just looking to cheer for something)

 

 

[Malapropismic Depository]

26 minutes ago, Bigmuss1 said:

Hopefully, the Silverback Gorilla can help breath some life back into the vet running backs legs!!  OU connection!!

 

 

 

Aha, so that's how the 2 of them are friends. I was wondering.

[Darrell Green Fan]

17 hours ago, Skin'emAlive said:

 

Shaun Alexander had a ridiculous OL during his prime. Emmitt wasnt that bad in Arizona, butthe team was going nowhere. Willie Parker was a speedster that lost his speed. Larry Johnson... also had one of the great LT LG combos of his generation.

 

Heres a few more old heads that produced late into their prime:

 

Jamal Lewis

Corey Dillon

Fred Taylor

Stephen Davis

 

The examples you listed are solid points but it was unfair of you to claim it was all the OL with my examples.   Are you prepared to do that with John Riggens as well?   Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson were studs in their first stops. And Emmitt averaged a little over 3 YPC in Arizona, clearly he was done. 

 

Just saying the odds are against AP being the player who many here think he may be.  

[Bigmuss1]

2 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

The examples you listed are solid points but it was unfair of you to claim it was all the OL with my examples.   Are you prepared to do that with John Riggens as well?   Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson were studs in their first stops. And Emmitt averaged a little over 3 YPC in Arizona, clearly he was done. 

 

Just saying the odds are against AP being the player who many here think he may be.  

OK, we get it, he’s old, this may not work, he may avg 1 yard per carry.....

 

But, holy ****, can we as fans at least “hope” he may help a little.  

 

The team is decimated by injury right now at the RB spot, what are they supposed to do??  Of course he may not pan out, of course he’s old, but they had to try something....

 

stop being so damn cynical and try cheering for the Redskins

 

The FO thought they had solved the RB issue, (and by the looks of a healthy Guice, they did) NO ONE assumed Guice would go down in preseason game 1.  Now we are left with old Vets to GAP stop the position.  Get used to it, here’s to our new shiny toy in 2019! 

[Sandy Monk]

2 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

Just saying the odds are against AP being the player who many here think he may be.  

 

The hope, for me at least, is that the OL is healthy and good enough that AD can be effective if even half of what he once was.  

 

I don't think we need a top 10 run game, but we must get that bottom-feeding number into the teens!

[Skinsinparadise]

12 hours ago, bobandweave said:

Anyone know the salary he’s going to get? On the emergency pod that JP Finley and Rich Tandler did today they said he’s not getting a dime unless he makes the 53 man roster. That’s interesting to me since he’s basically playing the next two games for free so he’s definitely motivated, just curious how much that he’s gonna cost

 

Saw somewhere 1 million but none of it guaranteed.