2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Burgold said:

Rosen or a treasure trove of draft picks for him?

 

Rosen. If he falls to 13, you aren't going to get a ton for him because other teams will say, "this isn't the 1 slot, don't care who the prospect is," remember Aaron Rodgers falling. It happens. 

 

Regardless, I take Rosen. A lot has to go right for you to suck in a year where a legit franchise QB IS available, and you can take him. Trading up carries inherent risks. Just looking at the past 15 years, there were only a handful of drafts that had QB's I had more than a coin toss confidence in becoming legit:

 

2004:

Manning

Ben Roth

 

I didn't know enough about Rivers.

 

2005: 

A. Rodgers: Cal's my alma mater, i watched nearly all of his games. 

 

2006:

Matt Leinart: I didn't know enough about Cutler, and distrusted Young's accuracy

 

2010:

Cam Newton: He just looked like a monster. Might not ever be an elite QB in terms of passing the ball, but pure athletic talent suggested he'd be impossible to completely rein in. 

 

2012:

Luck: Thought he was the best QB prospect to come out since Elway and Marino in '83. 

 

RGIII: I bought in. Studied him all throughout 2010 and 2011, loved his deep ball accuracy and general accuracy, was nervous about frame but not nervous enough, seemed accurate. 

 

2015:

Winston: Just had all the tools, and the accomplishments. 

 

 

 

For me that's basically six years of the past 13 where I was a big believer in at least one QB. There were other years where there was a consensus believe in talents within it: 2007 (Russell), 2009 (Bradford-his injury history scared me), 2015 Mariota (I liked him but wasn't quite as convinced), 2016 Goff and Wentz (as a Cal alum I liked Goff, best QB since Rodgers, easily, but I wasn't positive, and I just distrusted the Wentz hype, system QB in my view at the time w/accuracy issues, and huge arm/size love affair for scouts. He ended up the real deal, but the criticisms were justified), 2017 was weird, 2017 and 2018 are actually both weird. Probably as many as 8-9 QB's in round 1 in both drafts combined, but the only guys I had HUGE confidence in were Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield. I missed on Watson (believed the "velocity" knock, and was worried that his accuracy issues would continue, instead he looked amazing), I liked Mahomes but didn't know enough, ditto Trubisky, and I like but don't love Jackson, I'm in wait and see mode on him, though i do think he's probably the best QB value in this draft if he slips to the late teens/twenties. Maybe Rudolph too, and the Kyle kid. 

 

But anyway, my main point is that generally, you've got some fallow QB years: 

2000

2001

2002

2003

2005

2007

2008

2010

2011

2013

2014

 

and then you've got the good ones where there are at least 2+ legit blue chippers:

2004

2006

2012

2015

2016

2017

2018

 

We are in a very weird stretch, I think it would be true to say that the QB crops from 1994-2003 were largely horrific, and that there has been a bit of a QB renaisannce since 2015. Regardless of the stretch though, for me the key is this, there are usually about 2 to 2.5 bad years for every good year for top end QB prospects, and they typically go very very high, looking over the years where there was a consensus in at least 2+ franchise caliber QB's, the only years where you could still pick one up outside of the top 5 would be 2004, 2006, and 2017. Not very often.

 

With that knowledge in tow, to me, if there's a consensus blue chip grade on a guy, and there's been that on Rosen for three years, then if he falls to #13 you take him because the liklhood of you getting a blue chip graded QB prospect outside of the top 5 overall is probably about 10-20% chance in any given draft and remember, to get such a player will require you to either have earned that pick by sucking, or you've got the assets and the trade partner to move up with, and how often does that happen with us? Not very.

 

I take Rosen w/o a second thought. A chance at a legit franchise QB on a cheap contract for five years? Sign me up, and then plug in the Wentz/Goff Program (Build up the assets to make a run, pay the tab once his 2nd contract comes due). 

[skinny21]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Love Guice and to a lesser extent W. Hernandez but want neither at 13.  The Hernandez subject entered the debate for me in the context of drafting purely in the trenches.  If I am going purely guard or nose in the first -- my favorite would be Hernandez.  I like Vea but don't love him.  Payne I don't hate but I am having a hard time really digging him. 

I’m curious as to your thinking here.  You love Guice, and like Vea.  You don’t want Guice at 13, but would be fine with Vea at 13.  

 

Positional value?  

 

@stevemcqueen1  From my perspective, you’re saying since Guice had a knee sprain, played through it, still played well (just not as well), and then looked better toward the end of the season... he might never be the same and that’s a red flag.  At the same time, you’re looking at Payne, who displayed poor production in relation to other NTs, and saying he’s a super clean prospect. That seems very confusing to me.  

 

For the record, I generally believe you about Payne. I have watched very little film, so I don’t have a stake in that debate.  

 

Sort of a side note:  I’ve seen the metrics matching former prospects stats to current ones, but I haven’t seen anything about NTs with very little production going early in the draft and then blossoming.  Are there examples of that type?

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

I’m not as high on Guice as many here. Hope one of these defensive studs is there at 13 and we pounce. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

If 12 NFL teams are that stupid in reality than I don't know what's going on anymore. 

 

Hail. 

 

I just ordered my Redskins Fitzpatrick jersey, #29. 

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I just ordered my Redskins Fitzpatrick jersey, #29. 

 

Oh, as brain-dead stupid as the aforementioned 12 teams would be, I have as much faith in Allen making the right decision at 13 when faced with a choice as you do him picking a solid mid-round RB. 

 

NONE at all. 

 

Hail. 

[Berggy9598]

41 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Rosen. If he falls to 13, you aren't going to get a ton for him because other teams will say, "this isn't the 1 slot, don't care who the prospect is," remember Aaron Rodgers falling. It happens. 

 

Regardless, I take Rosen. A lot has to go right for you to suck in a year where a legit franchise QB IS available, and you can take him. Trading up carries inherent risks. Just looking at the past 15 years, there were only a handful of drafts that had QB's I had more than a coin toss confidence in becoming legit:

 

2004:

Manning

Ben Roth

 

I didn't know enough about Rivers.

 

2005: 

A. Rodgers: Cal's my alma mater, i watched nearly all of his games. 

 

 

 

Don't forget that we have the luxury of sitting him a season or two. Aaron Rodgers is probably my favorite athlete not playing for one of my teams but sitting was huge for him and it's something that generally works for most QBs. Some of the ones on the bust list may have a different story to tell had they been able to do that. 

[Skinsinparadise]

14 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I’m curious as to your thinking here.  You love Guice, and like Vea.  You don’t want Guice at 13, but would be fine with Vea at 13.  

 

Positional value?  

 

 

I am relying there on all the mocks I've looked at.  I think you can get Guice by trading down.  I don't think that's the case with Vea.   I wouldn't hate though Guice at #13, if they have no trade takers.  It again would matter who they'd skip to do it.   Guice is my 5th favorite possibility at 13 so in theory I like him above Vea. 

 

Vea is the player that I have maybe the most conflicting takes on.  I like him but don't love him as a player.  I love his fit though for this defense.  I'd feel relieved if he's taken over Payne. I don't hate Payne but to me Vea is distinctly better. 

 

I do think they can find a nose in the 4th or 5th round or sign Hankins in FA so it seems to me taking a nose at 13 in a way is a missed opportunity to upgrade elsewhere with a better player to boot.  Then I'd throw in the mix my belief that in spite of the FO's rhetoric, I think they wouldn't lose sleep to have a hole as big as Montana at RB and NT simply because we've seen that movie before.   So drafting Vea would be a bit of a relief on that front.

 

The thing is for me is as much as I love Fitzpatrick, my one fear about that pick is it increases the odds they don't address their running game and stopping the run in a significant way.  Though I'd still take Fitzpatrick in a heartbeat anyway. 

 

The Eagles for example to me talk and ACT like they are serious about the D line and the running game.  I don't trust that the Redskins are equally seriously -- I'll believe it when I see it.  So Vea to me eases my mind a little about what I perceive to be a mediocre front office that I don't fully trust.

 

[skinny21]

@Berggy9598Might wanna edit that quote man... 

 

@Skinsinparadise I feel you there... I guess I’m just not sure I’d want the team making decisions based on mocks vs who they like.  Of course I’m saying this, but I’d also rather take Guice after a trade down (if we were to take him).  

[PlayAction]

27 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

IMO still wouldn't matter all that much because we'd still have JAGs at RB. Even a great line can't turn a mediocre RB into an All Pro. They can help the run game, but they can only do so much. They can't suddenly make a RB who doesn't have moves have them or who can't survive first contact survive it. I'd rather have a great RB and a good OL than a great OL but poor RB and IMO we already have a good OL but our RBs are completely 'meh". We do need an upgrade at LG but I don't think we need to spend a 1st round pick for that.

 

That being said if Nelson fell AND Fitz and/or James were there it would be a tough decision. I think Fitz and James would have more of an overall impact on our D than Nelson would on our O. But it would be a really tough call. Though if Nelson fell to 13 (almost zero chance it happens) I'm guessing we'd get some extremely tantalizing trade offers so there's that aspect as well.

 

Anyway, probably a 1% chance Nelson gets out of the top 10. Easily one of, if not the best G prospects in the past 10 years.

 

Maybe not an All-Pro but Timmy Smith looked like one while running behind the Hogs.  You say 1% that Nelson gets out of the top 10 but at pick 13 you still think it's a tough decision between him and Fitz/James.  The teams picking earlier will have the same Fitz/James options plus other top talent.  Who knows?  Thursday night......

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

Oh, as brain-dead stupid as the aforementioned 12 teams would be, I have as much faith in Allen making the right decision at 13 when faced with a choice as you do him picking a solid mid-round RB. 

 

NONE at all. 

 

Hail. 

 

Sadly, my feelings about the FO and their capabilities very much influence my draft thoughts -- its part of the soup.  The Cowboys for their faults have Will McClay driving the ship on the draft and he's one of the best.  The Eagles have a loaded front office.  Giants will see?  Redskins -- you got me, I don't trust Bruce but maybe Kyle Smith will prove himself and they listen to him. 

[The Consigliere]

18 minutes ago, Berggy9598 said:

 

Don't forget that we have the luxury of sitting him a season or two. Aaron Rodgers is probably my favorite athlete not playing for one of my teams but sitting was huge for him and it's something that generally works for most QBs. Some of the ones on the bust list may have a different story to tell had they been able to do that. 

 

Im sure it helped some, I've heard people talk about how all the work helped him but.....

 

He was the best Cal QB I've ever seen, set a consecutive completion record for Cal against USC in the biggest game Cal has played in my lifetime. Both I believe were undefeated at the time, Rodgers would finish the game 29/34 wrapping up with several incompletions in a row in the red zone as time expired with Cal down 23-17. It was the best Cal team I've ever seen (got hosed by the bowl comittee and Texas stole their bowl ticket), with only the one blemish before they tanked their bowl game after the let down. 

 

At the time Rodgers was incredibly accurate, exceptionally productive, and fearless. He took a while to find his legs as a JUCO transfer, sharing QB duties in '03, but in '04 he was a monster. Always felt he was going to be a stud, and he became just that. Was annoyed that we were so fixated on Jason Campbell, who most at the time graded as a second to third tier QB in that mediocre class who was generally seen as a guy who should've gone in the 50-100 area, and was probably a high floor but very low ceiling guy. As for Rodgers, sitting might of helped Rodgers, but there was greatness in his game when he was drafted. 

 

 

[mistertim]

23 minutes ago, PlayAction said:

 

Maybe not an All-Pro but Timmy Smith looked like one while running behind the Hogs.  You say 1% that Nelson gets out of the top 10 but at pick 13 you still think it's a tough decision between him and Fitz/James.  The teams picking earlier will have the same Fitz/James options plus other top talent.  Who knows?  Thursday night......

 

Yeah that's a relatively fair point about Smith but that was a completely different era of football as well. The game is played very differently now. Defenses are bigger, faster, and more complex. Offenses are much different and more complex as well. The days of being able to run a Counter Trey again and again out of a 21 formation and it working again and again because you have bigger guys up front are over. Defenses are too talented and adaptable now. You really need a much more dynamic back.

 

As far as the Nelson and Fitz/James stuff I was just speaking in a purely hypothetical way that I'm not positive what I'd do if all 3 are there at 13. I think the chances of that are essentially nil (unless there are a few out of the blue unexpected picks in the top 12 and 5 QBs are also selected) so it was a pure thought experiment about positional value. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

 

 

@Skinsinparadise I feel you there... I guess I’m just not sure I’d want the team making decisions based on mocks vs who they like.  Of course I’m saying this, but I’d also rather take Guice after a trade down (if we were to take him).  

 

As for the mocks, I don't mean player evaluation -- am talking purely value.  Guice is typically in the 20-35 range not so much 13.  

 

Starting from the beginning of the process, Guice was my guy.  I went away from him some and then returned to him.  That's almost identical to how I was with Cook in 2017.   So I am a big Guice guy still.  But I don't like him over Fitzpatrick, James, R. Smith, Edmonds.    And I think you can trade down and still get him.  And I like Michel and Chubb a lot if they lose out on Guice.  Heck even though he's been trashed some on this thread, I dig Ronald Jones too.  Jones would be my 5th fav.

[bh32]

I just don't see all the hype with James..Fitzpatrick looks better to me

..Also i cant believe Riddick said James compares to Sean Taylor...lol No way in hell is James as physical as Taylor was.

[HigSkin]

http://www.walterfootball.com/NFLHotPress

 

• There are a number of teams picking in the top 20 of the second round that are looking to add talent at running back. Fortunately for those teams there are some excellent running back prospects who should be available in the opening frame of the draft's second night. Two players who may or may not be available are Georgia's Sony Michel and LSU's Derrius Guice. Both of them have a shot at being late first-round picks. Sources say it is 50-50 that Michel goes in Round 1, and the odds are slightly lower for Guice.
  
  Michel and Guice could be off the board in the first five picks of the second round, but in speaking to some of the teams that are hoping to land a running back, they feel that there are other prospects who could be worthy of going in that range. Georgia's Nick Chubb and San Diego State's Rashaad Penny are both said to be worthy of high second-rounders according to sources at multiple teams. USC's Ronald Jones is as well, depending on the team. Between Michel, Guice, Jones, Chubb and Penny, there is likely to be a run on halfbacks in picks No. 30-50.
• Two of those teams that are in the running back market are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Redskins. In speaking to sources at both of those teams, they like Chubb and Penny. If they miss out on Michel and Guice they still have good options available in those two. Chubb and Penny are options for each team's second-rounder. Jones is also in play for Washington.
   

[DWinzit]

6 hours ago, Burgold said:

Rosen or a treasure trove of draft picks for him?

What a great cross roads this would be....

After day 2 of the draft the Skins could have starting gaps filled at interior DL and OL, DB, RB along with possible additions at edge rush, TE and WR or QB and multiple DB's. The team would have nice depth all around...

[mistertim]

I think there's very very little chance that Guice lasts to the 2nd. We already know that the Eagles are apparently super interested in him so even if someone doesn't take Guice before them I'm sure they'd be thrilled that he fell to them. But I don't see him falling past the early 20s (well, unless the BS that seems to be floating around about character issues actually takes hold...then who knows).

[DWinzit]

17 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

•  

This could drive DT and NT stock up. Vea and Payne could go a little earlier. Wouldn't be shocked to see Vea gone before 13.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Shoot I’d take Hurst in the 4th in a heartbeat. Top 10-15 talent. Worth the risk. For sure. Grab him and Vea. I don’t care. 

[Going Commando]

That is a real shame about Hurst.  He's a monster but so was Nick Fairley and heart problems ended his career.  And I believe a similar condition has kept Star Lotuleilei from ever realizing his potential.

 

I hope the kid gets at least one good NFL contract though.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, mistertim said:

I think there's very very little chance that Guice lasts to the 2nd. We already know that the Eagles are apparently super interested in him so even if someone doesn't take Guice before them I'm sure they'd be thrilled that he fell to them. But I don't see him falling past the early 20s (well, unless the BS that seems to be floating around about character issues actually takes hold...then who knows).

 

I agree on Guice. I'd be surprised if he hits the 2nd round.  The Eagles at least publicly have been sniffing around him as intensely as the Redskins have and to a lesser extent the Steelers, Seattle, Ravens.  I think Guice could potentially actually go to the Lions at 20.

 

4 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

This could drive DT and NT stock up. Vea and Payne could go a little earlier. Wouldn't be shocked to see Vea gone before 13.

 

Not sure about that.  Hurst is a three technique.  Vea-Payne 0-1.  But it might raise the stock of Bryan. 

[Going Commando]

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Shoot I’d take Hurst in the 4th in a heartbeat. Top 10-15 talent. Worth the risk. For sure. Grab him and Vea. I don’t care. 

 

He's not a super clean fit here and I don't think you can mess around with heart problems.  It's dangerous.  I really like his game and I hope he gets to play in the NFL and doesn't get hurt, but I also hope it's some other team that takes the chance on him rather than us.

[crabbypatty]

Some random thoughts in no particular order:

 

The Giants won't pass on their choice of qb at #2. Unless gettleman is a complete moron you don't pass on a 10+ year qb for a rb, no matter who he is. They will take a qb, and hope they're not in a position to draft one that high for another 15 years.

 

I like Payne, but not at 13. I maintain he'll be a second round guy, vea will go between 20 and 30.

I don't think any of the dl available this year are top 15 worthy, other than Chubb and Landry.. that dude is top 15 for sure. Legit stud, like von Miller.

 

Small chance Fitz and James make it to 13, of the 2 I like Fitz better though.

 

13 is high for a rb, but I'm convinced guice is the real deal. Take him and don't look back for the next 5+ years.

However if a trade back opportunity presents itself, I wouldn't be salty about Chubb or Michel and a DL or OG later. 

 

I'm convinced the skins are all in on Alex Smith, and will support him with a rb at 13/after trade. It doesn't make sense to give up what they did for him then hang him out to dry with no Kareem hunt clone. They already got their Tyreek Hill in Richardson early in fa... I think they're going to try and replicate Smith's 2017 success with the same offensive pieces and couple it with gruden's pass offense.. we know he can scheme guys wide open, the offense has a chance to be great with Smith and a really good rb.

LG will be solidified one way or another.

 

 

[Bonez3]

I feel like we showed our hand already. 'Its no secret, we need to get better stopping the run and running the ball'. This was stated publicly. I just hope if a real BPA talent falls to us we don't overthink it and take the DL/RB that Allen is probably anchored into.

 

I'm just very sure there will be some blue chip talent there at 13. I would not put Guice in that category whatsoever

[Skinsinparadise]

1. 9. Another pass-rushing prospect with injury concerns is Florida State's Josh Sweat, who had surgery on his ACL, MCL an PCL in college. Some teams have flagged his knee, moving him down or off their boards, Rapoport reported, via sources informed of the situation. Other teams, however, have told Rapoport that they are comfortable with the knee in the short as well as the long term.

   Performing without a brace, Sweat put on a show at the Combine in February, leading one scout to describe his workout as "freakish." It's worth noting, per Rapoport, that Sweat did not practice every day in college, a schedule that would be a concern if it carries over to the pro ranks. The Giants are a team to watch, as their team doctor performed Sweat's surgery. In addition to New York, the FSU star has visited the Saints, Redskins and Titans.

   http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000928086/article/draft-buzz-bills-unlikely-to-trade-for-giants-no-2-pick?campaign=Twitter_atn

    

    

    

    

    

    
2. Jon Ledyard‏Verified account @LedyardNFLDraft 8m8 minutes ago

   More

   Jon Ledyard Retweeted 600VI

   #Redskins like Josh Sweat a lot, but they would only consider him at #44. I still think it is Guice, Vea or a DB at #13

   Jon Ledyard added,

   600VI @BloodGangJWall

   Replying to @LedyardNFLDraft

   anything on the Skins?

   1 reply1 retweet2 likes